The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates at the upcoming December meeting is shrinking, with officials expected to disagree on what the right path forward is for the central bank. Yahoo Finance Fed Correspondent Jennifer Schonberger outlines the details. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here: https://finance.yahoo.com/videos/series/market-domination/ #youtube #stocks #investing #fedratecuts About Yahoo Finance: Yahoo Finance ...

Stocks slid on Thursday as the longest government shutdown in U.S. history drew to a close. Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images Close Key Takeaways The stock market cleared a major hurdle this week. It's the outset of what is historically a good time for equities. You wouldn't know it if you looked at your portfolio today. This shutdown is also ending at a time of year that's historically good for the stock market. Since 2000, November has, on average, been the best month of the year for the S&P 500. ...

Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images Stocks slid on Thursday as the longest government shutdown in U.S. history drew to a close. Key Takeaways Tech stocks led the major indexes lower on Thursday as investors turned their attention from the longest government shutdown in U.S. history to concerns about an AI bubble. Investors are increasingly concerned that massive spending on data centers is fueling an unsustainable AI boom that could be a bubble. Meanwhile, Wall Street's expectations for a Dece ...

[Music] Good Tuesday morning from YF's New York City headquarter studios. I'm Yao Finance executive editor Brian Sazi. We are only two days out from Yao Finance's big annual invest event on Thursday.It'll be a huge day of market moving conversation with everyone from the Bitcoin king Michael Cell and then you have the bells uh on Wall Street uh to the master of activist investing starboards Jeff Smith. But before all that fun kicks off today or Thursday morning I should say we do have open markets an ongoin ...

Core Insights - The analysis highlights the importance of alternative data sources in understanding wage inflation trends post-COVID, indicating a shift in wage dynamics with a softening observed primarily at the high end of the wage spectrum [1][3][5] Wage Dynamics - The recovery has shown a K-shaped pattern, where the lower end of the wage spectrum remains weak while the high end has shown some strength recently, but this has now reverted to pre-COVID levels [2][3] - Aggregate wages are returning to pre-COVID levels, indicating a softening trend, particularly from the high end rather than the low end [3][5] Market Implications - The current labor market data suggests a slowdown, which aligns with other data sources and indicates a 70% probability of the Federal Reserve continuing its rate-cutting cycle [5][6] - The dependency of risk asset markets on potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is emphasized, with fixed income markets being more sensitive to rate changes compared to riskier assets like high yield [6][7][8] Valuation and Market Sentiment - Recent market movements reflect a pullback from previously euphoric valuations, particularly in the equity market, which had become overextended [11][12][13] - The current market environment presents a potential buying opportunity, contingent on the macroeconomic outlook remaining stable [13] Investment Strategy - The sweet spot for investment is identified in the middle part of the yield curve (five to seven years), where the Fed's normalization efforts provide some support [14][15] - Strong corporate earnings and balance sheets suggest limited downside risk, making carry trades appealing in the current environment [17][18]

Take a much closer look at the alternative data sources, the private data sources, the alternative data that I mentioning there. We've had a lot of success scraping the wage inflation data or the wage posting data and extracting from it wage inflation measures. And one of the most important stories that I think everyone is aware of it when you came out of Covid, it was the bottom and that led the wage gains and that shifted.And we've been in a period where, you know, you guys have talked about it, the K-sha ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin price dropped to $99,000 on Coinbase, marking the lowest level since May, before recovering to $102,000, reflecting a nearly 20% decline from its all-time high of $126,000 reached in early October [1] - The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by about 20%, now standing just under $3.5 trillion [1] Investor Sentiment - Sentiment among venture capital funds and trading firms is low, with expectations of prolonged high interest rates and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming December meeting [2] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 74% probability of another rate cut in December, but the Fed's cautious stance may lead to continued volatility in risk assets [3] Market Dynamics - Significant selling pressure is observed, with US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds experiencing $566 million in outflows, contributing to the downward trend [4] - Major transactions are occurring, such as Marathon Digital transferring $236 million in Bitcoin to institutional exchanges, indicating active selling by large holders [5] Price Predictions - Analysts predict Bitcoin will trade between $94,000 and $118,000 in the near term, with the lower bound seen as a healthy retracement zone amid subdued ETF inflows [6] - Some industry experts view the current correction as a generational shift in Bitcoin ownership, with early wallets beginning to sell for the first time [6][7]

Core Insights - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, dropping 3% to below $104,000, marking the first 'Red October' since 2018, which has led to a loss of approximately $20 billion in leveraged positions [1] - Wall Street executives are predicting an equity market drawdown of over 10% within the next year, indicating broader market concerns [2] Market Activity - US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds reported losses of $187 million in a single day, contributing to nearly $800 million in selling over the previous week [3] - Long-term Bitcoin holders have begun to sell, with $1.5 billion in deposits moving from legacy wallets to major exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken [3] - A notable transaction involved a whale transferring $365 million worth of Bitcoin to Kraken, typically indicating profit-taking or hedging [4] - The crypto market saw over $1.3 billion liquidated in the past 24 hours [4] Macro Environment - Attention is shifting towards the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in December, with a 67% probability of another rate cut, although uncertainty remains regarding the decision [5] - Ongoing macroeconomic pressures, including an unresolved US government shutdown, are contributing to market volatility [5] Market Sentiment - Despite the current downturn, analysts suggest that the market may be better positioned for recovery after the correction [6] - Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, even after the end of the 'Red October' period [6] Current Market Status - Bitcoin is currently trading at $103,900, reflecting a 3.2% decrease over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum has dropped 6% to $3,490 [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - US Treasury yields increased, with the benchmark 10-year yield reaching 4.10% [1] - Internal divisions within the Fed are evident, with differing views on rate cuts and inflation concerns among key officials [1] - Fed cut the Federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% – 4.00%, characterized as a 'hawkish cut' [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - US manufacturing contracted in October, with ISM manufacturing PMI falling to 48.7 from 49.1 in September [3] - Price pressures in manufacturing eased to 58.0 from 61.9, while the employment component rose to 46.0 from 45.3 [3] - Anticipation of mixed signals in upcoming ISM services PMI data, which could impact market reactions [3] Group 3: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Update - RBA decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.60%, with minimal market surprise following stronger-than-expected CPI inflation [4] - RBA's projections indicate inflation will remain above the target band until mid-2026, despite rising unemployment [5] - Only one rate reduction is anticipated in the coming year, reflecting conflicting economic signals [5]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, leading to differing views on monetary policy and the potential for rate cuts in December [2][8][17] - Jay Powell, the Fed Chair, indicated that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, reflecting uncertainty in the labor market and inflation levels [5][6][11] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, but inflation remains elevated at around 3%, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [3][6][12] 分组2 - Meta's recent bond sale of $30 billion received a record $125 billion in orders, indicating strong demand despite concerns over its spending pace [25][26] - The high yield market has slowed down significantly, with only $18 billion priced this month, the lowest since April, amidst emerging credit concerns [27][28] - Credit investors are cautious about the potential risks associated with large capital expenditures, particularly in the context of economic uncertainty [36][41]