CHENGDU 成都九月 手房价格 分析 哪种套型跌幅最小? 详见part2 这些次新小区也跌了? 详见part3 哪些地铁沿线房价涨了? 详见part3 金九行情修复 成都增长幅度排位全国前列 详见开篇 成交量超去年同期 四季度能稳住吗 ..... 详见part1 9月成都成交新房7093套，二手房成交19581套，成都楼市在9月迎来明显成交量回升。需要注意的是，今年以来，成都二手房市场始终保持着较高的交易 活跃度，虽然当月19581套的成交量在全年维度来看，仅与相对淡季的5-6月水平相当，但仍超过去年同期的"金九银十"，同比增幅约28.7%。 △数据综合整理自网络公开信息，仅供参考 △截止2025年9月30日数据 综合今年1-9月数据来看，成都今年已累计成交超18万套二手房，整体交易活跃度远超去年。 进入金九，全国楼市普遍迎来一轮行情修复。数据显示，2025年9月成都二手房成交量达19581套，环比8月增长11.45%，增幅仅次于北京，成交套数仅次 于上海，位居全国第二。 分季度对比数据，同样可以印证。2025年1-3季度的成交量均超过去年同期，3季度二手房成交量5.7万套，已经相当于去年成交量次高季度。 ...

另据克而瑞研究中心统计，9月份百强房企实现销售操盘金额2527.8亿元(人民币，下同)，环比增长 22.1%，同比增长0.4%。当月，同比数据止跌回升，不过，房企单月业绩规模整体仍处于历史较低水 平。 该机构统计数据还显示，9月份，百强房企中，有72家房企单月业绩环比增长，其中45家企业单月业绩 环比增幅大于30%，包括华润置地、建发房产、中国铁建、电建地产、邦泰集团、中建东孚等。 推盘力度加大是推动房企业绩回升的重要因素。数据显示，9月份，重点城市新房市场供应量环比大增 55%，达到年内次高；新房成交量环比上升18%。 中新社北京10月9日电 (记者 庞无忌)9月份，中国标杆房企销售额环比回升。 中指研究院研究主管陶淑茹9日在一场月度房地产形势分析会上表示，9月份，百强房企销售总额环比增 长11.9%，部分房企销售表现较为强劲。总体而言，高质价比的"好房子"仍能赢得市场。 伴随销售回升，房企拿地投资的力度也随之加大。据中指统计，1至9月，百强房企拿地总额7278亿元， 同比增长36.7%，增幅较1至8月扩大8.7个百分点。值得注意的是，除在公开市场以招拍挂形式拿地外， 部分房企通过收购形式获取大量土地。例如 ...

2025年9月5日，深圳市住房和建设局、中国人民银行深圳市分行联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房 地产政策措施的通知》，自2025年9月6日起施行。新政实施后，深圳新房热度明显上升。 乐有家研究中心数据显示，9月1日-28日，深圳一手住宅预售网签30套，本月预售网签累计1482套，一 手住宅现售网签47套，本月现售网签累计800套，本月预售+现售网签累计2282套；二手住宅网签备案 154套，本月已累计网签备案4323套。 另有数据显示，截至26日，深圳二手房录得量已经达到5226套，本月有望突破6000套，将创近期新高。 金九银十，深圳迎来置业黄金期。随着国庆、中秋"双节"临近，深圳启动多场高品质房产专场活动，覆 盖福田、罗湖、南山等核心区域，汇聚近百个优质在售楼盘，通过线上线下联动模式，为市民打造便捷 高效的置业平台。 本次系列房产活动，市、区住建部门携手深圳多家房企结合自身特点推出特色专场，旨在满足市民多样 化安家需求，助力房地产市场平稳健康发展。 活动一："活力深圳 宜居未来"假日专场 活动时间：10月1日-10月8日 活动地点：前海冰雪大世界会展城地铁站C出口区域 参展项目：中建观玥名邸、鸿荣源·珈 ...

Group 1 - The real estate market has faced challenges in recent years but is expected to recover soon, presenting investment opportunities [1] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of gaining exposure to the real estate sector at this time [1] - The author has a strong background in finance, particularly in corporate finance, M&A, and investment analysis, with a focus on real estate [1] Group 2 - The author aims to share insights and analysis on interesting companies, fostering debate and continuous improvement in investment decisions [1]

Summary of Hong Kong Property Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Hong Kong property sector, discussing the outlook for 1H25 and beyond, highlighting recovery signs and investment opportunities. Key Points Market Sentiment and Outlook - The sector experienced a slight beat in 1H25, with intact Dividend Per Share (DPS) and better-than-expected retail reversion seen as positive indicators for recovery [1] - Short-term fundamentals are supported by stable residential volume, retail sales, and office inquiries, while long-term support comes from national policies favoring Hong Kong [1][2] - Anticipation of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut and a policy address in September 2025 adds to the positive sentiment [1] Dividend and Capital Recycling - Companies maintained stable interim DPS, with forecasts for stable full-year DPS [2] - Hang Lung may resume cash dividends from '26E interim, while ongoing buybacks are noted for HKL [2] - Hysan initiated a HK$8 billion capital recycling plan over five years [2] Investment Activity - Investment interest is rising, with CKA looking to invest in new lands and distressed properties [3] - Sino Land won a land tender in Tuen Mun for HK$1.09 billion, indicating active bidding in the market [3] - Fortune REIT is exploring acquisitions cautiously, particularly for neighborhood malls [3] Residential Market Dynamics - The residential sector is facing low margins and increased provisions, but signs of stabilization are emerging [4] - New sales Gross Profit Margin (GPM) is estimated to hover around 0-10% for mass projects, with volume and rental growth expected to support home prices [4] - Significant increase in new home sales volume of small-sized units (<HK$4 million) by 307% year-on-year after a stamp duty cut [4] Retail Sector Performance - Retail rental performance is improving, with luxury malls showing positive reversion after asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) [5] - Tenant sales improved in July-August, with expectations for steady sales in 2H25 [5] - Positive reversion rates for luxury tenants at HKL and Hysan, while others like Wharf REIC and Link REIT are expected to see negative reversion [5] Office Market Trends - Increased leasing inquiries, particularly for prime locations, with occupancy rates improving [6] - Negative reversion is estimated at 10-15% across districts, but super Grade-A offices are showing signs of stabilization [6] Financial Performance and Cost Management - Companies benefited from a decline in average finance costs, particularly those with higher floating rate debt [8] - Despite lower gross interest, some companies like Henderson and Kerry faced higher net costs due to less capitalization after project completions [8] Macro Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's retail sales increased by 0.7% year-on-year in June, with luxury segments outperforming [9] - The unemployment rate reached 3.7%, the highest since November 2022 [9] - The Top Talent Pass Scheme showed a 54% visa extension rate, aligning with expectations [9] Additional Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of ongoing capital flow and talent retention in supporting the Hong Kong property market [1] - The potential impact of external economic factors, such as interest rate changes, was emphasized as a critical risk to monitor [8] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the Hong Kong property sector, providing a comprehensive overview of current trends, challenges, and opportunities.

Core Insights - The Group reported a net profit of EUR 4.3 million for Q2 2025, correcting an earlier erroneous statement of a net loss [1][21] - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was EUR 28.5 million, significantly up from EUR 6.9 million in the same period of 2024 [16][23] - The Group's construction projects are progressing well across various locations, with a focus on residential developments [15][19] Financial Performance - The gross profit for the first six months of 2025 increased to EUR 10.2 million from EUR 2.4 million in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 36% [19][23] - The operating result for the first half of 2025 was a profit of EUR 7.5 million, compared to a loss of EUR 0.9 million in the same period of 2024 [20][23] - The net result for the first six months of 2025 was a profit of EUR 6.2 million, compared to a loss of EUR 3.0 million in the previous year [21][23] Real Estate Development - In Tallinn, the Kalaranna development has seen a sales rate of 60.7%, with 76 sold apartments handed over to buyers [2] - The White Building project in Kristiine City has achieved a sellout rate of 62.4%, with completion expected by November-December 2025 [5] - The Group is preparing for the Blue Marine project in Riga, which will consist of 96 residential units, with construction preparations starting in July 2025 [7][8] Market Trends - The real estate market in Vilnius is experiencing record prices, with the Šaltinių Namai Attico project achieving nearly 40% sellout in city villas [9] - The Group's operations in Italy are strengthening, focusing on bare ownership transactions, with market normalization expected by the end of 2025 [14] Operational Highlights - Cash generated from operating activities in the first half of 2025 was EUR 8.5 million, compared to a cash outflow of EUR 4.5 million in the same period of 2024 [22] - The total assets of the Group as of June 30, 2025, were EUR 115.8 million, an increase from EUR 109.7 million a year earlier [24][25]

Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant growth in real estate development across its key markets, with a notable increase in revenue and profitability in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [14][21][24]. Real Estate Development - In Tallinn, the Kalaranna development is nearing completion, with 76 sold apartments handed over and an overall sales rate of 60.7% as of Q2 2025 [1]. - The Kristiine City area is seeing continued development, with four projects adding approximately 35,000 sqm of gross building area and around 350 residential units [2]. - The White Building project in Kristiine City has achieved a sellout rate of 62.4%, with completion expected by November-December 2025 [3]. - A new 7-story residential building with 90 units is under construction, with a current sellout rate of 12.2% and expected completion in October-November 2026 [4]. - In Riga, the Blue Marine project is in preparation, with 96 residential units planned following the successful sales of River Breeze Residence [5][6]. - In Vilnius, the Šaltinių Namai Attico project is progressing with a sellout rate of nearly 40% for villas and over 10% for the commercial building, with substantial completion expected by the end of 2025 [7]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was €28.5 million, a significant increase from €6.9 million in the same period of 2024, with Q2 revenue reaching €16.1 million compared to €3.9 million in 2024 [14][21]. - Gross profit for the first six months of 2025 increased to €10.2 million from €2.4 million in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 36% [17][21]. - The operating result improved to a profit of €7.5 million in the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of €0.9 million in the same period in 2024 [18][21]. - The net result for the first half of 2025 was a profit of €6.2 million, compared to a loss of €3.0 million in 2024 [19][21]. - Cash generated from operating activities was €8.5 million in the first half of 2025, compared to a cash outflow of €4.5 million in the same period of 2024 [20][21]. Market Outlook - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on improving macroeconomic conditions and is focused on disciplined execution and strategic development [13][14]. - The real estate market is expected to normalize by the end of 2025, despite previous slowdowns due to rising interest rates [12].

Core Viewpoint - Despite a sluggish economic recovery in Victoria, Melbourne has seen house prices rise by at least AUD 10,000 in 150 suburbs since the central bank's interest rate cut in February, with some high-demand areas experiencing remarkable increases, thereby pushing the median price upward [1][4]. Group 1: Price Increases - The suburb of Canterbury has experienced the largest price increase, with the median price soaring by AUD 385,000 to AUD 3.5 million over five months [4]. - Bittern, located on the Mornington Peninsula, saw a price increase of 21.65%, rising from AUD 970,000 to AUD 1.18 million [4]. - Gembrook has officially entered the million-dollar club, with prices rising from AUD 910,000 to AUD 1.0498 million [4]. - Notable increases were also observed in the apartment and townhouse markets, such as Sunshine, where the median price rose by AUD 54,500 to AUD 458,000, and Hampton East, where the median price increased by AUD 112,500 to AUD 975,000 [4]. Group 2: Market Response and Economic Factors - There are still 32 suburbs where prices have remained unchanged, and 162 suburbs have experienced declines [6]. - AMP Capital's chief economist Shane Oliver noted that the delayed response to interest rate cuts is surprising, attributing it to Victoria's weaker economic standing, additional property taxes, and a lack of "fear of missing out" among buyers [6]. - PropTrack's senior economist Anne Flaherty emphasized that the slow response in a state with leading population growth serves as a significant warning regarding the state government's property tax policies [6]. - Flaherty anticipates a strong recovery in most suburbs, with further interest rate cuts expected to be a key driver, especially given Victoria's unemployment rate is higher than the national average [6]. Group 3: Buyer Sentiment - Buyers in Melbourne generally lack a "fear of missing out" mentality, often waiting for more signals of interest rate cuts before making purchases, even after viewing properties for six months [8]. - The acting CEO of the Real Estate Institute of Victoria, Jacob Caine, indicated that many buyers are waiting for more substantial signs of interest rate cuts, suggesting that the two cuts this year have not been sufficient to drive widespread growth across Melbourne [8].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong momentum in Q2 2025, with resilient revenues growing by 17%, surpassing the 15% growth rate for transactional businesses [5][8] - Core EBITDA and core EPS grew by 30% and 47% respectively, exceeding expectations [10] - The company raised its full-year core EPS guidance to a range of $6.1 to $6.2, indicating over 20% growth for the year [8][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Advisory Services revenue rose by 14%, with SOP growing by 31%, driven by margin expansion [11] - Global leasing revenue increased by 13%, with U.S. office leasing leading at a 15% increase [11][12] - The Building Operations and Experience segment saw mid-teens revenue growth, while Project Management achieved 13% revenue growth and 18% SOP growth [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-gateway markets outpaced gateway markets in growth, indicating increased momentum outside major cities [12] - U.S. industrial leasing revenue was up 15%, driven by third-party logistics providers [12] - Global property sales rose by 19%, with U.S. property sales increasing by 25% [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on synergies across its nearly 8 billion square foot management portfolio, particularly in the Building Operations and Experience segment [6][19] - The integration of Turner and Townsend with the legacy project management business is expected to yield significant cost and revenue synergies over the next few years [31] - The company is actively pursuing M&A opportunities while balancing share buybacks as part of its long-term capital allocation strategy [19][43] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the economy, with limited risk of recession later in the year [19] - The leasing business is expected to continue strong, although comparisons will become tougher in the latter half of the year [24] - There is optimism regarding capital markets activity, with expectations for continued strength in sales and refinancing [38][41] Other Important Information - The company generated $1.3 billion of free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, with expectations of over $1.5 billion for the full year [18] - A bond offering of $1.1 billion was completed during the quarter, increasing liquidity to $4.7 billion [19] - The company’s exposure to the New York City market accounts for approximately 5% to 6% of overall earnings [84] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the office leasing business? - Management acknowledged that comparisons will become tougher but expects continued strength in office leasing driven by a return to normalcy post-COVID [24] Question: Can you provide context on the synergies in the BOE segment? - Management indicated that while they expect significant synergies, they have not yet quantified them [25][26] Question: What benefits have been seen from the integration of Turner and Townsend? - Management reported no unexpected challenges and noted significant cost and revenue synergies are already being realized [31] Question: What is the outlook for capital markets activity? - Management expects strong sales and refinancing activity to continue, with no significant changes anticipated in interest rates [38][41] Question: How is the company approaching capital deployment? - The company prioritizes M&A opportunities and will consider buybacks if capital is not deployed at the same rate as free cash flow generation [42][43] Question: What is the expected project management revenue growth for the second half of the year? - Management anticipates low double-digit revenue growth for project management, with some normalization expected in Q3 [58] Question: What is the outlook for industrial leasing? - Management revised expectations for industrial leasing to roughly double-digit growth for the year, indicating improved conditions [61] Question: How does the company view its infrastructure services and asset management? - Management confirmed a focus on growing infrastructure services and investment management, which are seen as areas of potential value creation [68][69]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong momentum in Q2 2025, with resilient revenues growing by 17%, surpassing the 15% growth rate for transactional businesses [4][6] - Core EBITDA and core EPS grew by 30% and 47% respectively, exceeding expectations [8] - The company raised its core EPS guidance for the year to a range of $6.1 to $6.2, indicating over 20% growth for the year if the midpoint is achieved [6][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Advisory Services revenue rose by 14% with SOP growing by 31%, driven by margin expansion [9] - Global leasing revenue increased by 13%, with U.S. office leasing leading at a 15% increase [9][10] - The Building Operations and Experience segment saw mid-teens revenue growth, while Project Management achieved 13% revenue growth and 18% SOP growth [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Growth in non-gateway markets outpaced gateway markets, indicating increased momentum in regions outside major cities [10] - U.S. industrial leasing revenue was up 15%, driven by third-party logistics providers [10] - Global property sales rose by 19%, with U.S. property sales increasing by 25%, particularly strong in data centers, office, and retail [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on synergies across its nearly 8 billion square foot management portfolio and is optimistic about the integration of Turner and Townsend with its legacy project management business [5][29] - The company is targeting growth in infrastructure services and asset management, with a growing $10 billion AUM infrastructure fund [66][67] - The outlook for capital markets activity remains strong, with expectations for continued sales and refinancing activity [36][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while the macro environment remains uncertain, occupier and investor clients are proceeding with their plans [4] - The company expects to set a new earnings peak this year, just two years after the 2023 downturn in commercial real estate [6][7] - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the economy with limited risk of recession later this year [16] Other Important Information - The company generated $1.3 billion of free cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis, with expectations of over $1.5 billion for the full year [15] - A bond offering of $1.1 billion was completed during the quarter, increasing liquidity to $4.7 billion [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the office leasing recovery? - Management acknowledged that comparisons will become tougher but noted strong momentum in office leasing, particularly in second-tier markets [20][22] Question: What benefits have been seen from the integration of Turner and Townsend? - Management reported no unexpected challenges and highlighted significant cost and revenue synergies, with expectations for continued benefits over the next couple of years [29][30] Question: What is the outlook for capital markets activity? - Management expects strong sales and refinancing activity to continue, with no significant changes anticipated in interest rates [36][39] Question: How is the company addressing potential synergies in the Building Operations and Experience segment? - Management indicated that while synergies are expected to be significant, they have not yet quantified them [23][24] Question: What is the expected growth for project management revenue in the second half of the year? - Management anticipates low double-digit revenue growth for project management, with normalization expected in the second half [55][56] Question: How is the company approaching capital deployment and share buybacks? - Management reiterated a focus on M&A opportunities while balancing share buybacks, with no specific capital allocation embedded in guidance [40][41]