The Fed decided on Sept. 17 to resume its rate-cutting cycle. - Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images The path for the U.S. stock market, which is trading near all-time highs, is probably higher after the Federal Reserve last week decided to lower its benchmark interest rate, according to LPL Financial. “Since 1984, the Fed has cut rates 28 different times when the S&P 500 was within 3% of an all-time high,” said Adam Turnquist, LPL’s chief technical strategist, in a note Wednesday. “After the cut, the broader mark ...

Global Global Markets Strategy 19 September 2025 J P M O R G A N Global Commodities The Week in Commodities This is a summary note that consolidates the latest views of our global commodity strategists published over the week; to read detailed reports, refer to the hyperlinks. It also contains hyperlinks to other related research/podcasts on the global commodities market. Global Commodities: Party like a semiquincentenarian—Commodities rally 15% over benign cutting cycles Oil Flash Note: Ukraine steps up at ...

U.S. stock futures advanced on Thursday following Wednesday’s mixed moves. Futures of major benchmark indices were higher.A 25-basis-point rate cut was delivered by the Federal Reserve, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaling more easing could be coming, as a part of “risk management” with the shift partly driven by a cooling labor market and growing downside risks to employment.Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.05% and the two-year bond was at 3.52%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 has reached its 23rd record high this year, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment as concerns that previously suppressed valuations are fading [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin easing monetary policy, with GDP growth projected to increase from 1% this year to 2% next year, suggesting a pro-cyclical environment [2] - Interest rate volatility is at its lowest since 2022, creating an ideal environment for asset allocators to take on more risk in their portfolios [4] Group 2 - The probability of a recession over the next 12 months is estimated to be between 20% and 25%, supporting expectations of double-digit earnings growth next year [5] - Consumer spending, which constitutes 70% of the US economy, is expected to receive a boost from recent fiscal policies and lower federal funds rates [5] - The labor market is described as stagnant, with job creation decreasing from an average of over 200,000 jobs per month last year to about 75,000 this year, indicating potential challenges for the Federal Reserve [8][10] Group 3 - The 10-year Treasury note is highlighted as a significant factor for consumers, especially with $7 trillion in money market funds facing reinvestment risks [7] - Initial jobless claims have remained relatively stable, averaging 227,000 this year, which presents a complex situation for the Federal Reserve [9][10] - The outlook for both equities and credit remains positive, with expectations of double-digit earnings growth and 2% GDP growth next year [11]

try to put together, Phil, uh what 23rd record high for the S&P this year. What are are you thinking about valuations more or is it more about the the potential that names like Oracle are handing us. Yeah, and I think a lot of it has to do, Carl, with the fact that a lot of the things that people were worried about this year that may have kept valuations lower are kind of fading away a little bit here.So, last December 18th, we were here, Federal Reserve told us that they would cut rates twice in 2025. Nine ...

RT Capital Flows (@Globalflows)NOTHING HAS CHANGEDHOLDING ES, NIKKEI, and BTC LONGSee everything laid out in the threadInflation risk is greater than recession risk, this is why bonds are down and the curve is steepening ...

Joining us with more on the markets, Gabriel Santos, JP Morgan, asset management, a chief market strategist for the Americas. And I'm you don't sound in in this uh in in looking at your notes in the midyear check, Gabrielle. You don't sound that bullish really is would you you kind of sound how you did it at the lows.You didn't say we weren't going to go back up, but you didn't really No one expected us to just bounce right back to where we are so quick to new highs so quickly in this because tariffs not th ...

4 May 2025 | 6:57PM EDT US Daily: May FOMC Preview: A Higher Bar for Rate Cuts (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.pen ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record revenues of $17.7 billion and EPS of $2.60, with a return on tangible equity (ROTCE) of 23% [5][16]. - The efficiency ratio for the first quarter was 68%, despite incurring $144 million in severance charges related to performance management [17][18]. - The common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio stood at 15.3%, indicating a strong capital position [6][43]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Institutional Securities achieved record revenues of $9 billion, up 28% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in equity and fixed income [18][19]. - Wealth Management generated revenues of $7.3 billion, with a reported margin of 27% and $94 billion in net new assets [29][30]. - Investment Management reported revenues of $1.6 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year, with total assets under management (AUM) ending at $1.6 trillion [39]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted increased volatility in stock, bond, and currency markets, with a heightened risk of recession but a consensus leaning towards softer growth rather than negative [9][11]. - Client activity remained strong across various regions, particularly in Asia, where Institutional Securities revenues were up 35% year-over-year [77][78]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasized a strategy focused on raising, managing, and allocating capital for clients, with a commitment to long-term growth despite near-term uncertainties [14][15]. - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong global presence and adapting to changing market dynamics, particularly in Asia and Europe [79][82]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the economic outlook, noting that while some clients are pausing strategic activities, others continue to engage actively [92][95]. - The company is preparing for potential regulatory reforms, particularly regarding the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), which could provide additional opportunities for capital deployment [99][100]. Other Important Information - The company repurchased $1 billion of common stock during the quarter, reflecting its commitment to returning capital to shareholders [42]. - The firm experienced strong demand for strategic advice and capital raising, despite some disruptions in near-term deal activity due to market volatility [23][24]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Equities trading outlook - Management noted that client activity across all products and regions was strong, and while a weaker economy could impact trading, current engagement levels remain high [51][55]. Question: M&A outlook - Management highlighted encouraging trends in M&A activity, with year-over-year growth across all client segments, despite some market deterioration [58][60]. Question: Risk management in trading - Management indicated that client engagement remains strong, and while there is natural volatility, the market-making function continues to perform well [72][74]. Question: International business prospects - Management expressed bullish sentiments regarding the international business, particularly in Asia, emphasizing the importance of local engagement and partnerships [77][81]. Question: Impact of SLR changes - Management discussed the potential impact of SLR reforms on capital deployment, emphasizing the need for a holistic view of regulatory changes [99][100]. Question: Advisor business trends - Management reported strong interest in the advisor platform, with increased recruitment and retention trends, particularly in the self-directed and advisor-led channels [108][110].

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the December 2025 Brent and WTI price forecasts by $5 to $66 and $62 respectively, and the December 2026 forecasts by $6 to $62 and $59 respectively [2][4][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights two key downside risks: tariff escalation and higher OPEC+ supply, which are contributing to the price downgrades [2][7]. - Global oil demand growth is now expected to be only 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026, down from previous expectations of 0.9 mb/d [16][19]. - The OPEC+ countries have decided to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day (kb/d) in May, significantly higher than the previously guided 135 kb/d, reflecting low inventories and a shift in market equilibrium [21][22]. - The report no longer forecasts a price range due to expected elevated price volatility driven by recession risks [2][8]. Summary by Sections Price Forecast Adjustments - The December 2025 Brent and WTI forecasts have been reduced to $66 and $62 respectively, with annual averages now at $69 for Brent and $66 for WTI in 2025 [2][7]. - The December 2026 forecasts are now $62 for Brent and $59 for WTI, which are below the forward curve implied averages [11][39]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global oil demand is projected to grow by only 0.6 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026, reflecting a reduction of nearly 0.4 mb/d in 2025Q4 and 0.5 mb/d in 2026Q4 [16][19]. - The increase in OPEC+ production is expected to contribute $2-3 to the December 2025 price downgrade [9][21]. Market Volatility and Hedging Recommendations - The report suggests that implied volatility remains underpriced, and recommends oil producers to hedge against further medium-term price declines [28][29]. - It is advised that refiners hedge deferred refined product margins, especially for complex refined products, due to the resilience of these margins despite recessionary concerns [37].