Retail Sales Flat in December, Lower Than ExpectedETF Trends is now VettaFi. Read More --The Advance Retail Sales Report from the Census Bureau showed consumer spending was unexpectedly flat in December. Headline sales were unchanged, down from November's 0.6% reading and below the projected 0.4% growth.For an inflation-adjusted perspective on retail sales, take a look at our [Real Retail Sales] commentary.Here is the introduction from [today's report]:Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Adva ...

Market Overview - The equity markets experienced a modest recovery from earlier losses, with futures down only about four to five points after being down 25 [1] - This week is significant for data releases that could influence short-term equity movements, particularly following a pullback related to AI software [2] Retail Sales and Economic Indicators - Retail sales data was slightly below expectations, showing no change instead of the anticipated 0.4% increase, indicating a cooler economic environment [2] - The current economic conditions are described as a "Goldilocks" scenario, where inflation is not too high to prevent Federal Reserve action, nor too low to necessitate emergency measures [3] Job Market Insights - Recent job data indicates some softening, and stability in these numbers will be crucial for the Fed's future decisions, potentially more so than retail sales figures [4] - The analysis suggests that strong retail sales in November may have masked weaker performance in December, and a more comprehensive view over several months is necessary [4][5] Inflation Expectations - January is expected to show stronger inflation numbers compared to November and December due to seasonal factors [5] - There is speculation about the future direction of the Federal Reserve under Kevin Worsh's potential chairmanship, with expectations that he may continue to cut rates despite rising inflation [6][7] Historical Context and Future Projections - Historical parallels are drawn to the late 1990s tech boom, suggesting that while productivity may rise, inflation could also return, challenging current economic assumptions [8][9] - Concerns are raised about potential cash shortages similar to past crises if the Fed tightens monetary policy too aggressively [10][11] Investor Sentiment - Investors appear to favor a pro-growth approach with continued rate cuts, as evidenced by increased interest in sectors like quantum computing and AI infrastructure [12]

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The next five days will feature an unusual pairing of major US data releases: the January employment report on Wednesday and the January CPI report on Friday, two reports which usually never appear in the same week. Ahead of those, markets will digest December retail sales and the Q4 employment cost index tomorrow, alongside a heavy schedule of Fed speakers, many of them current voters. Global inflation updates from China (Wednesday) and several European economies will add to the momentum, while the UK’s Q4 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy shows signs of cooling inflation and resilient consumer activity, with consumer price growth at a six-month low in December and retail sales rebounding [1] - Investor sentiment is high, indicated by record-high margin debt levels, suggesting increased market risk-taking [1] Inflation Dynamics - Consumer inflation decreased for the second consecutive month in December, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.68%, down from 2.74% in November, and a monthly increase of 0.3% [2] - Core inflation slightly increased from 2.63% in November to 2.64% in December, with a monthly rise of 0.2% [2] - Conversely, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose unexpectedly to 2.95% in November, up from 2.80% in October, indicating potential future consumer inflation [3] Consumer Spending - Retail sales increased by 0.6% in November, surpassing the 0.5% forecast, marking a recovery from a revised decline of -0.1% in October [4] - Core sales, excluding autos, rose by 0.5%, exceeding the projected 0.4% growth, although control purchases rose only 0.3%, below the 0.4% forecast [5] Margin Debt Insights - Margin debt reached a record high of $1.23 trillion in December, marking an eighth consecutive monthly increase and a more than 30% surge over the past year [6][7] - High margin debt levels indicate strong investor confidence but also suggest increased market volatility and risk-taking behavior [7] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 reached a record high before ending the week with a 0.4% loss, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell by 0.3% [8] - The S&P Equal Weight Index increased by 0.7% from the previous week [8] Treasury Yields and Fed Outlook - The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.24%, and the 2-year note at 3.59%, with a 95% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady at the upcoming meeting [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically analyzing Q4 GDP performance and December economic activity indicators, including industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: China's real GDP growth moderated to **4.5% year-on-year (yoy)** in Q4 from **4.8% yoy** in Q3, primarily due to a high base effect. Sequentially, GDP growth showed a slight acceleration to **1.2% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) seasonally adjusted non-annualized** in Q4 from **1.1% qoq** in Q3 [1][8][17]. 2. **Industrial Production**: Industrial production (IP) growth increased to **5.2% yoy** in December from **4.8% yoy** in November, driven by stronger-than-expected exports, particularly in the computer & electronics equipment and pharmaceutical sectors [1][9][10]. 3. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: FAI growth declined significantly to **-13.0% yoy** in December from **-10.7% yoy** in November, marking the first full-year contraction since the 1990s at **-3.8% yoy** for 2025. This decline is attributed to statistical corrections and fundamental factors such as "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged property downturn [1][11][12]. 4. **Retail Sales**: Retail sales growth slowed to **0.9% yoy** in December from **1.3% yoy** in November, indicating broad-based weakness across sectors. Online and offline sales both decelerated, with restaurant sales growth also declining [1][12][13]. 5. **Services Sector Performance**: The services industry output index grew by **5.0% yoy** in December, up from **4.2% yoy** in November, suggesting that services consumption is outpacing goods consumption [1][13]. 6. **Property Market Trends**: The property market continued to show weakness, with new home starts and completions contracting by **-19.3% yoy** and **-18.3% yoy**, respectively, in December. Property sales also remained depressed, with a **-15.5% yoy** decline in volume terms [1][14]. 7. **Labor Market Conditions**: The nationwide unemployment rate remained stable at **5.1%** in December, with a slight decrease from **5.2%** in November after seasonal adjustment. The youth unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group was reported at **16.9%** in November [1][16]. 8. **Future Economic Outlook**: The forecast for full-year real GDP growth in 2026 is maintained at **4.8%**, slightly above the market consensus of **4.5%**. The report suggests that incremental policy easing will be necessary to address subdued domestic demand and structural challenges [1][17][34]. Additional Important Insights - The divergence in economic performance is highlighted, with strong export growth contrasting with weak domestic demand [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of statistical corrections in interpreting recent economic data, particularly regarding FAI [1][11]. - The services sector's growth is noted as a positive sign amid overall economic challenges, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards services rather than goods [1][13]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy.

Economic Strength and Consumer Behavior - Recent economic data indicates growing strength on Main Street, with Americans' take-home pay increasing by 1.42% after inflation from January to December 2025, contributing to rising retail sales and home purchases [1] - Retail spending rose by 3.3% year-over-year in November and increased by 0.6% from the previous month, surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.4% rise [2] Housing Market Dynamics - Lower interest rates have led to a 5.1% increase in existing home sales in December, as reported by the National Association of Realtors [3] - The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.19% in December, down from 6.24% in November and 6.72% a year ago, indicating improved housing market conditions [6] - Inventory levels in the housing market remain tight, with fewer sellers eager to move, but more inventory is expected to come to market starting in February [6] Inflation Trends - Inflation remained elevated at the end of 2025, with the consumer price index (CPI) showing a 0.3% monthly increase in December and a 2.7% rise year-over-year [9] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% in December and is up 2.6% from the previous year [9] Employment and Federal Reserve Actions - The US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, contributing to a decline in the unemployment rate [10] - The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points in its last three meetings, indirectly contributing to lower mortgage rates [12] - Market expectations indicate a 95% probability that the Fed will maintain its current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% in the upcoming meeting [13]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically the Q4 GDP and December activity data, including industrial production (IP), fixed asset investment (FAI), and retail sales [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Industrial Production (IP) Growth**: - Expected to rise to **5.4% year-on-year (yoy)** in December from **4.8% yoy** in November, driven by stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMIs and exports [1][2]. - Manufacturing exports projected to increase to **6.6% yoy** in December from **5.9% yoy** in November [2]. - Notable decline in auto output growth to **-4.6% yoy** in December from **+3.0% yoy** in November, and a widening contraction in steel production to **-5.1% yoy** [2][10]. 2. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: - Year-on-year FAI growth expected to remain depressed at **-8.9%** in December, slightly improving from **-10.7%** in November [1][10]. - Year-to-date FAI growth forecasted at **-3.3% yoy** in December, reflecting both statistical corrections and structural headwinds such as "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged property downturn [10]. 3. **Retail Sales**: - Anticipated to slow further to **0.6% yoy** in December from **1.3% yoy** in November, influenced by declining auto sales and subdued home appliance sales due to funding shortages [1][10]. - Auto retail sales volume growth dropped to **-14% yoy** in December from **-8% yoy** in November [10]. 4. **Real GDP Growth**: - Forecasted to moderate to **4.5% yoy** in Q4 from **4.8% yoy** in Q3, with domestic demand weakening despite resilient exports [1][10]. - The forecast suggests that the full-year real GDP growth for 2025 would be around **5.0%**, aligning with the government's growth target [10]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the forecasts for December IP are modestly above market consensus, while those for retail sales and FAI are below consensus [7][10]. - The services industry output index is expected to remain stable and outperform retail sales growth, indicating a shift in consumption patterns towards services [10]. - The report highlights the potential for revisions in historical estimates of sequential GDP growth when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases quarterly GDP data [10]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call regarding the Chinese economy's performance and expectations for Q4 and December activity data.

Core Insights - The November retail sales report indicates a rebound in consumer spending, with headline sales increasing by 0.6% compared to a decline of 0.1% in October, surpassing the expected growth of 0.5% [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Advance estimates for U.S. retail and food services sales in November 2025 reached $735.9 billion, reflecting a 0.6% increase from the previous month and a 3.3% increase from November 2024 [1] - Total sales from September 2025 to November 2025 rose by 3.6% compared to the same period the previous year [1] - The percent change from September 2025 to October 2025 was revised from virtually unchanged to a decrease of 0.1% [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Performance - Retail trade sales increased by 0.6% from October 2025 and were up 3.1% compared to the previous year [2] - Nonstore retailers experienced a significant increase of 7.2% from last year, while food service and drinking places saw a rise of 4.9% from November 2024 [2]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced a decline, with the Nasdaq Composite falling over 350 points, the Dow down 0.55% to 48,922.97, the NASDAQ down 1.58% to 23,335.70, and the S&P 500 down 1.06% to 6,889.76 [1] - Energy shares increased by 2%, while information technology stocks decreased by 1.3% [1] Retail Sales and Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month in November, marking the largest increase since July, compared to a revised 0.1% drop in October [2][10] - The U.S. current account deficit decreased by 9.2% to $226.4 billion in Q3, against market expectations of a $238 billion gap [10] - U.S. producer prices increased by 0.2% month-over-month in November, consistent with market expectations [10] Commodity Market - Oil prices rose by 1.3% to $61.97, gold increased by 0.5% to $4,622.10, silver surged by 4.8% to $90.560, and copper rose by 0.3% to $6.0345 [5] European and Asian Markets - European shares were mostly higher, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 up 0.19%, Spain's IBEX 35 up 0.43%, London's FTSE 100 up 0.28%, Germany's DAX down 0.40%, and France's CAC 40 up 0.10% [6] - Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei up 1.48%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index up 0.56%, China's Shanghai Composite down 0.31%, and India's BSE Sensex down 0.29% [7] Company-Specific Movements - High Roller Technologies, Inc. shares surged by 289% to $13.64 after announcing a partnership with Crypto.com [9] - Clover Health Investments Corp shares rose by 10% to $2.78 following a year-over-year increase in membership growth [9] - Inspire Veterinary Partners Inc shares increased by 78% to $0.041 after filing to increase its authorized common stock [9] - Briacell Therapeutics Corp shares fell by 53% to $5.09 after pricing a public offering at $5.59 per unit [9] - Plus Therapeutics Inc shares dropped by 39% to $0.29 after announcing a public offering priced at $0.38 per unit [9] - Hub Cyber Security Ltd shares decreased by 39% to $0.33 following a reverse stock split announcement [9]