Core Viewpoint - The U.S. faces a "dilemma" regarding the dollar, balancing between maintaining its status as the dominant international reserve currency and addressing domestic economic challenges [1][6][15]. Group 1: Global Trade and Currency Connection - The current global trade and tariff disputes are deeply intertwined with currency issues, particularly the dollar's role in international trade [1][5]. - There are two main channels connecting trade disputes to currency: traditional exchange rates and the impact of high domestic savings rates in countries like China [2][4]. Group 2: U.S. Dollar's Dilemma - The U.S. aims to promote a competitive dollar to enhance manufacturing and improve trade balances while also wanting to maintain its geopolitical leverage through the dollar [6][15]. - Achieving both objectives is seen as unlikely, as the dollar will have to concede some of its global dominance [6][15]. Group 3: Potential Challengers to the Dollar - Four currencies are identified as potential challengers to the dollar: the euro, the renminbi, Special Drawing Rights (SDR), and digital currencies [8][9][12]. - The euro faces challenges related to the EU's internal dynamics and lacks a corresponding fiscal authority [8]. - The renminbi has made progress in internationalization but still lags in global financial transactions and reserves [9][10]. Group 4: Opportunities for Reform - The current situation presents an opportunity for reform in the international monetary system, particularly if the U.S. allows the dollar to retreat from its dominant position [13][14]. - The role of SDR could be expanded to provide a more stable alternative to the dollar, promoting a multipolar currency system [12][14]. Group 5: Conditions for Currency as Reserve - For a currency to serve as a reserve, it must provide stable and secure assets, which is currently a challenge for alternatives to the dollar [19][20]. - The global demand for reserve currencies is complex, and the scale of dollar assets may not reflect the actual need for reserve currencies [20][21].