1月5日，科创人工智能ETF国泰（589110）涨超2.4%，半导体国产化与3D打印应用受关注 方正证券指出，十五五规划半导体自主可控提速，先进制造全产业链或迎快速发展期，国产半导体 设备与存储客户共同研发，加速国产化率的提升。当前国内存储产能与全球龙头存在显著差距，需充分 产能以确保稳定供应体系。在先进制造环节，国产半导体经过多轮共同研发、验证测试、小批量等，有 望伴随终端客户扩产逐渐提升国产化率，国产半导体有望再上一个台阶。 科创人工智能ETF国泰（589110）跟踪的是科创AI指数（950180），单日涨跌幅限制达20%，该指 数从科创板市场中选取30只市值较大的人工智能相关上市公司证券作为指数样本，覆盖AI基础设施、 技术及应用等领域。该指数集中度高、主题鲜明，侧重半导体等硬科技领域，能够反映人工智能相关上 市公司证券的整体表现，适合作为进攻型投资工具。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅 读基 ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Semiconductor Equipment Industry Industry Overview - The focus is on the China Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market, with expectations for growth driven by advanced logic and memory capital expenditures (capex) in 2026 and 2027 [2][9] - WFE spending in China is projected to grow from US$40.1 billion in 2025 to US$44.0 billion in 2026 and US$44.5 billion in 2027, representing year-over-year growth of 8.2%, 9.9%, and 1.1% respectively [9] Key Companies and Forecasts - **NAURA** has been identified as a key beneficiary in the WFE market due to its advancements in high-aspect ratio etching tools and a broader product portfolio [4][42] - Other companies mentioned include **AMEC** and **ACMR**, which are also rated as "Buy" [5] - Revenue forecasts for NAURA, AMEC, and ACMR have been raised by 7%, 2%, and 2% respectively for 2027, reflecting higher visibility on order demand [49] Demand Indicators - Lithography imports, a leading indicator of WFE demand, increased significantly, with imports to Shanghai and Guangdong rising 46% and 66% year-over-year in the first ten months of 2025 [3][16] - The demand for memory capacity is expected to be strong, with CXMT and YMTC planning IPOs to raise funds for capacity expansion [3] Market Dynamics - The consensus view that China's WFE demand will decline in 2026 is considered overly conservative; domestic memory capex is expected to grow significantly [11] - The report highlights that major Chinese WFE companies saw a combined revenue of Rmb17.9 billion in Q3 2025, up 39% year-over-year [34] Valuation and Price Targets - NAURA's price target has been raised from Rmb545.50 to Rmb587.50, based on a new valuation method reflecting higher mid-term return on equity (ROE) [55] - AMEC's price target has been slightly adjusted from Rmb351.50 to Rmb352.50, maintaining its valuation multiple [60] - ACMR's price target remains at Rmb222.00, reflecting stable growth expectations [64] Investment Thesis - The report suggests that the market is underestimating NAURA's potential share gains in 3D NAND capacity expansion and leading logic demand [42] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for covered China WFE companies is 38x for 2026E, which is attractive compared to global peers [46] Conclusion - The China semiconductor equipment industry is poised for growth, with significant investments in WFE expected to continue through 2027, driven by advancements in technology and increased domestic demand [2][49] - NAURA is positioned as a leading player in this growth, supported by its technological advancements and market share gains [4][42]

Core Insights - The implementation of the "1+6" policy for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has significantly increased support for national strategic emerging industries, particularly benefiting the semiconductor industry [1][2] - Shenzhen Hengyun Chang Vacuum Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Hengyun Chang") is set to undergo a key listing review on November 14, 2025, as the first company in the second batch selected for on-site inspection, reflecting the board's mission to support hard technology and enhance the self-sufficiency of the industrial chain [1][2] Industry Overview - The "1+6" policy, announced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in June, aims to improve the quality of listed companies and optimize financing channels for hard technology enterprises, with a focus on strategic emerging industries such as new-generation information technology and high-end equipment [2] - The semiconductor industry, being a core pillar of information technology, is a primary focus of this policy, leading to a surge of semiconductor companies applying for listings on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] Company Highlights - Hengyun Chang specializes in plasma radio frequency power systems, a critical component in the semiconductor supply chain, recognized as a challenging area for domestic production due to high technical barriers and significant R&D investment [3] - The company has successfully developed three generations of products, breaking the long-standing monopoly of two major American companies, MKS and AE, in the domestic market [3] - Hengyun Chang's products support advanced semiconductor manufacturing processes, with the second-generation Bestda series capable of supporting 28nm processes and the third-generation Aspen series supporting 7-14nm processes, achieving international advanced levels [3] Market Position - In light of restrictions on domestic wafer manufacturers regarding overseas equipment procurement, Hengyun Chang's technological advancements are increasingly significant [4] - The company has established a mature mass production capability, delivering products to leading domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers and becoming a strategic supplier in critical manufacturing processes [4] Financial Performance - Hengyun Chang's financial performance has shown rapid growth, with revenue increasing from 158 million yuan in 2022 to 541 million yuan in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 84.91% [6] - Net profit surged from approximately 26 million yuan to 142 million yuan during the same period, with a CAGR of 131.87% [6] - The company has consistently invested over 10% of its revenue in R&D, with R&D expenses reaching approximately 43 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 72.63% increase year-on-year [6] Strategic Implications - Hengyun Chang's upcoming IPO is not only a significant milestone for the company but also a demonstration of the capital market's support for hard technology enterprises in overcoming critical technological challenges [6] - If successful in its IPO, Hengyun Chang aims to leverage capital to enhance R&D and expand market presence, contributing to the self-sufficiency of China's semiconductor industry and positioning itself as a leading provider of plasma process solutions [6]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Hengyun Chang Vacuum Technology Co., Ltd. is set to go public on November 14, aiming to raise 1.469 billion yuan for semiconductor RF power system industrialization and intelligent production projects [1][3] Company Overview - Hengyun Chang is a leading enterprise in the core component field of semiconductor equipment, recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and a key "little giant" in specialized and innovative sectors [1][2] - The company has developed three product series over ten years, with the latest series achieving performance levels comparable to international leaders, breaking the overseas monopoly in the market [2] Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, the company's revenue is projected to grow from 158 million yuan to 541 million yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 84.91% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 19.61 million yuan to 129 million yuan during the same period [1] Product and Market Position - The core product, the plasma RF power system, is essential for semiconductor manufacturing, influencing chip yield and process precision [1] - Hengyun Chang has established deep partnerships with leading domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers, becoming a strategic supplier in critical processes [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a dual-driven strategy of "internal R&D + external acquisitions" to capitalize on the domestic semiconductor industry's growth opportunities [2] - Significant investment in R&D is planned, with over 150 million yuan allocated from 2022 to mid-2025, aiming for over 40% of personnel in R&D by the end of 2024 [2] Future Outlook - The IPO proceeds will enhance production capacity and accelerate the commercialization of core technologies, positioning the company to meet the growing market demand [3] - Hengyun Chang aims to strengthen its competitive advantage in the semiconductor industry and establish itself as a global supplier of core components for plasma processes [3]

Core Insights - In the third quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 342 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22 million yuan, showing a remarkable increase of 2464.79% [1] - The company's continuous revenue growth over nine consecutive quarters is attributed to its strategic business expansion since its listing, moving from a focus on consumer electronics to five key sectors: consumer electronics, semiconductors, new energy, next-generation displays, and biomedicine [1] Revenue Growth - The new business segment has become a significant driver of revenue growth, with new business revenues reaching approximately 54.66% year-on-year growth, totaling about 54.67 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company has developed a series of laser devices using solid-state nanosecond and ultrafast laser technologies to meet the high-precision needs of PCB/FPC in consumer electronics and semiconductors, with expected annual orders exceeding 90 million yuan [2] Product Development - The company has successfully developed laser solutions for various materials and components, including acoustic devices and foldable screen hinges, targeting well-known clients such as AAC Technologies and Lens Technology [1] - The ultra-precision drilling equipment, based on self-developed ultrafast lasers, has received positive feedback from clients, capable of processing micro-holes with diameters of 30-70 micrometers at a drilling speed of up to 10,000 holes per second [2] Competitive Advantage - The company is building a differentiated competitive advantage through independent innovation in core laser technologies and a forward-looking approach to diverse downstream markets [3] - With the ongoing orders for PCB/FPC laser equipment and accelerated market penetration of new products, the company is well-positioned to sustain high growth driven by trends in consumer electronics innovation, semiconductor localization, and explosive growth in AI computing power [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates that as of September 29, 2025, Shengmei Shanghai has an order backlog of 9.072 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.10% [1] Industry Summary - Since 2025, the demand for semiconductor equipment in China has remained strong, driven by technological advantages, product maturity, and market recognition [1] - The company continues to deepen its existing market and expand into new markets [1] Company Summary - The company is a leading player in domestic semiconductor cleaning equipment and is expected to benefit from performance growth driven by domestic production [1] - The company's products are continuously iterated and upgraded, with successful market promotion of new products [1] - Profit forecasts for the company are as follows: 2025 net profit of 1.476 billion yuan, 2026 net profit of 1.829 billion yuan, and a new forecast for 2027 net profit of 2.285 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 59x, 47x, and 38x respectively [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating [1]

Core Insights - The semiconductor and integrated circuit industry in Shenzhen is projected to reach a scale of 256.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.8% [1] - In the first half of 2025, the industry is expected to continue its rapid growth, reaching 142.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [1] Group 1 - The Shenzhen municipal government attributes the growth of the semiconductor and integrated circuit industry to the collaborative efforts in policies, funding, talent, and platforms, leading to a significant optimization of the industry ecosystem [3] - According to CITIC Securities, the impact of U.S. restrictions on China's semiconductor manufacturing has diminished over time, indicating that the domestic semiconductor industry is well-prepared for these challenges [3] - The trend of domestic substitution for semiconductor equipment and components is becoming clearer, particularly in advanced storage and logic sectors, as domestic manufacturers make significant progress [3] Group 2 - Domestic storage wafer manufacturers are actively promoting the localization of semiconductor equipment to reduce reliance on overseas suppliers, having made breakthroughs in key processes such as etching and deposition [3] - CITIC Securities anticipates stable expansion demand for domestic advanced storage wafer manufacturers in 2025, with a potential rapid increase in 2026 as new production lines come online, further driving demand for domestic semiconductor equipment and components [3]

Group 1 - Semiconductor stocks in Hong Kong are rising against the trend, with notable increases in shares of SMIC (3.3%), Hongguang Semiconductor (nearly 2%), and Huahong Semiconductor (1.5%) [1] - Recent industry news indicates a surge in semiconductor-related activities, with several domestic tech giants entering chip development and Huawei announcing the timeline for the iteration of its Ascend chips [1] - SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor have optimistic outlooks regarding future orders and market conditions [1] Group 2 - Major news in the sector includes the upcoming IPO of Moore Threads on the STAR Market, scheduled for September 26, which is positioned as a leading domestic GPU company [1] - Moore Threads focuses on providing computing acceleration platforms for AI, digital twins, and scientific computing, filling several gaps in the domestic GPU market [1] - According to recent analysis from Founder Securities, advanced packaging is becoming a crucial direction for domestic computing chips to overcome performance bottlenecks, with companies like Huawei, Cambricon, and Haiguang Information accelerating their chip iterations [1]

Core Insights - New Kai Lai, a Shenzhen-based semiconductor equipment company, has exceeded 10 billion in orders, with clients including major wafer fabs like SMIC and Changjiang Storage [1] - The company anticipates a significant increase in order volume for advanced semiconductor equipment in the coming year, projecting revenues of 4.5 billion this year, 7.5 billion by 2026, and 16.9 billion by 2028 [1] - New Kai Lai aims to produce 100% domestically manufactured semiconductor production equipment, responding to the Chinese government's push for self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry [1] Group 1 - New Kai Lai's current order backlog has surpassed 10 billion, with key clients including Shenzhen Pengxin Micro, SMIC, Huahong Group, and Changjiang Storage [1] - The company is expected to achieve profitability of 2 billion by 2027 and is currently undergoing a second round of external financing, with a valuation of 65 billion [1] - The Shenzhen government has invested hundreds of billions to support the local semiconductor industry, positioning New Kai Lai as a critical player in this initiative [1] Group 2 - The anticipated mass production of New Kai Lai's orders is expected to create new business opportunities for upstream domestic semiconductor supply chain companies [2] - Companies like Li Hexing, which supplies precision components, project significant revenue growth due to New Kai Lai's orders, estimating potential income of 700-800 million, equivalent to their annual revenue [2] - Guoli Co., which supplies vacuum capacitors, is also preparing to replace foreign components in response to New Kai Lai's upcoming production ramp-up [2] Group 3 - New Kai Lai originated from Huawei's 2012 laboratory's Starlight Project, focusing on precision equipment design and development, and has since evolved into an independent entity with a team of top experts in the semiconductor equipment field [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese semiconductor industry**, particularly the development of **domestic AI GPUs** and the localization efforts in semiconductor manufacturing. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Driving Factors for Domestic GPU Shipments**: - Four key factors are identified as driving the growth of China's domestic GPU shipments: - SMIC's 7nm process capacity and yield [1] - Chinese CSPs' AI chip sourcing strategies [1] - Nvidia's B40 chip performance and pricing [1] - Expansion of China's AI capital expenditures [1] - Morgan Stanley has an **Overweight (OW)** rating on TSMC and an **Equal Weight (EW)** rating on SMIC, indicating a positive outlook on these foundries [1] 2. **DeepSeek's New Model**: - The new V3.1 model of **DeepSeek** supports next-generation local AI chips, utilizing a new precision parameter, **UE8M0 FP8**, which enhances compatibility with various Chinese-made chips [2][3] - CAICT has released a list of local AI chips compatible with DeepSeek, including products from **Huawei, Cambricon, Kunlun, Hygon, and MetaX** [2] 3. **Alibaba's AI Chip Development**: - **Alibaba** has developed a new AI chip manufactured by a Chinese foundry, aiming for broader AI inference tasks, contrasting with previous chips made by TSMC [4] - Major municipalities in China, such as **Shanghai**, are targeting 70% domestic design or production of data center chips by 2027 [4] 4. **Self-Sufficiency in Semiconductors**: - China's semiconductor self-sufficiency ratio is projected to rise from **24% in 2024** to **30% by 2027**, driven by advancements in local chip production and demand stability [34][36] - Significant improvements in production capabilities for **CPUs and GPUs** are noted, particularly with Huawei's Ascend chips [37] 5. **Market Trends and Performance**: - **Cambricon** has announced a full-year sales guidance of **Rmb5-7 billion**, which is below market expectations [9] - **Dosilicon** experienced a stock suspension due to volatility, with a notable increase of **216%** since the announcement of its G100 series GPU [9] - Smaller Chinese AI developers still prefer Nvidia's H20 over local GPUs for training due to better software support [9] Additional Important Insights - **China's Semiconductor Equipment Imports**: - In July 2025, China's semiconductor equipment imports reached **US$3.4 billion**, marking a **14% year-over-year increase** [15] - The growth in imports is expected to continue, with a forecasted improvement in equipment spending in the second half of 2025 [15] - **Performance of Key Stocks**: - Notable outperformers include **Espressif (+34.1%)**, **GigaDevice (+32.2%)**, and **Hua Hong (+27.0%)**, while underperformers include **ACMR (-10.9%)** and **ASMPT (+1.7%)** [22][23] - **Future Events**: - Upcoming semiconductor exhibitions in China are scheduled for September 2025, which may serve as platforms for showcasing advancements in the industry [33] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the advancements and challenges within the Chinese semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of AI chip development and localization efforts.