证券研究报告：计算机|点评报告 发布时间：2026-01-12 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 5653.73 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5841.52 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3994.26 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -4% 1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 26% 31% 36% 41% 46% 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 2025-10 2026-01 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:陈涵泊 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080001 Email:chenhanbo@cnpsec.com 分析师:李佩京 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080003 Email:lipeijing@cnpsec.com 分析师:王思 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080002 Email:wangsi1@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《晶泰控股 (2228.HK)：AI for Science 领军，实现临床里程碑突破， 生发产品有望成为 C ...

中美AI技术的差距究竟有多大？针对这一问题，美国专家和马斯克给出了不同的答案，耐人寻味。 美国专家认为，中国和美国在AI领域，差距十分明显，美国在AI技术领域占据绝对性优势。而中国之所以能够在AI领域崭露头角，唯一的优势就是丰富的 电力资源。 马斯克认为，自古以来，中国就是地球上最强大的国家之一，所以他们做出任何伟大的东西都不奇怪，比如Deepseek。 至于马斯克特别提到的DeepSeek，这也不是偶然。这个由中国团队开发的大模型，最近在国际评测中表现十分亮眼。但它的意义远不止一个"中国版 ChatGPT"。DeepSeek的成功背后，是一整套系统在支撑——政策层面，从"新一代人工智能发展规划"到各地算力中心布局，中国在AI领域的投入是持续而 系统的。产业层面，华为的昇腾芯片、百度的飞桨平台、阿里的云计算，这些基础要素正在形成合力。人才层面，中国每年有近500万STEM毕业生，这个 数字是美国的五倍多。 这些因素叠加，才让DeepSeek这样的创新成为可能。它不是天上掉下来的，而是中国AI生态自然生长出的果实。 而马斯克的答案，则代表了创新派，我们会发现，像马斯克、黄仁勋等年轻的科技大佬，在看待中美竞争问题 ...

文/黄海峰的通信生活 据欧盟《2025全球研发投入百强企业榜单》显示，美国有674家企业入围，占总研发的47.1%，中国有 525家企业入围，占总研发投资的16.1%，欧盟有318家企业入围，占总研发投资的16.2%，日本有192家 企业入围，占总研发投资的7.8%。 研发"压强"：每天烧掉5.3亿 据华为2025年上半年财报，2025年上半年，华为研发费用投入969.5亿元，占营收比例达22.7%。这相当 于每天烧掉5.36亿元，研发费率远超苹果、小米。 其中，华为在榜单中排名第六，研发投资金额为229.4亿欧元。这个数字背后，则是一家企业用"压强式 投入"改写全球科技竞争格局的故事。 在亚马逊、谷歌等美国巨头垄断前五的榜单上，华为成为唯一进入前十的中国企业，也折射出中国科技 从"跟跑"到"并跑"的跃迁。 在超导量子芯片核心技术层面，华为2022年11月获国家知识产权局公开的"超导量子芯片"专利（公布号 CN115271077A），通过可调耦合器与控制器的创新设计，可使两个超导比特电路的交叉共振效应等效 相互作用趋近于零，显著降低量子比特串扰，为大规模量子计算芯片的研发奠定关键基础。 这种"不计成本"的投入 ...

国投证券指出，国产算力从供给侧和需求侧均迎来新的变化，一方面以华为异腾为代表的国产算力芯片 持续迭代，另一方面，国内互联网大厂逐步适配国产芯片，建议关注国产算力产业链。 华创证券认为，科创估值或仍有继续上行空间。康波周期下的科技竞赛，继续打开估值上限。AI链： 端侧增长稳健可持续，应用侧关注ToB端商业化落地。参考上一轮康波周期中90年代美股互联网时代的 信息技术板块估值，其在推动康波周期上行过程中普遍创下新高，而中国当前的科创估值上限打开程度 与彼时仍存在一定差距，因此整体估值或仍有继续上行空间。 【国产替代之光，科创自立自强】 科技摩擦背景下，信息安全、产业安全重要性凸显。AI作为核心技术，实现自主可控至关重要。科创 人工智能ETF华宝（589520）及其联接基金（联接A：024560，联接C：024561）重点布局国产AI产业 链、具备较强国产替代特点，前十大重仓股权重占比逾七成，第一大重仓行业半导体占比超一半，集中 度高，具备较强进攻性。同时，该ETF是融资融券标的，是一键布局国产算力的高效工具。 成份股方面，芯原股份领涨超5%，云天励飞、寒武纪涨逾4%，中科星图涨超2%，亚信安全、道通科 技、复旦微 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a difficult trading day, with the Shanghai Composite Index managing to close slightly higher after a nine-day rally, despite over 3,300 stocks declining and 25 hitting the daily limit down [1] - The Hong Kong stock market opened high but fell sharply, influenced by the A-share market's performance, leading to a negative impact on investor sentiment [1] - Significant fluctuations were observed in metal futures, with silver initially rising over 6% before a rapid decline, contributing to the drop in the A-share metals sector [2] Group 2 - The A500 ETF saw a substantial inflow of nearly 50 billion yuan in net subscriptions over the weekend, indicating strong investor interest and potential market momentum [3] - There are concerns about whether the funds that rushed into the A500 ETF at year-end will continue to flow in or shift to selling in the new year [4] - The bond futures market also experienced a decline, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.91% to 111.820 yuan, reflecting broader market trends [6] Group 3 - ByteDance is expected to purchase over 40 billion yuan worth of Ascend chips from Huawei by 2026, marking a significant increase from nearly zero in 2025, which could be a milestone for domestic computing power development [7] - The Huawei Ascend concept sector saw strong performance, with stocks like Tuowei Information and Chuanrun Shares hitting the daily limit up, and Huafeng Technology rising over 15% during trading [9] Group 4 - The domestic demand for lithium batteries is projected to decline significantly in early 2026, with battery manufacturers anticipating production cuts in response to fluctuating demand, which may impact the lithium materials market [11] - Xiaomi Group announced a plan for its co-founder to sell up to 5 billion USD of B-class common stock annually starting December 2026, with total sales not exceeding 20 billion USD, aimed at establishing an investment fund [13] - The overall market saw mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.04% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.66%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 0.66% [13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The conditional opening of H200 to China is seen as a short-term supplement to AI computing power supply, while reinforcing the necessity for long-term self-sufficiency in technology [11] - The release of H200 chips is primarily aimed at inventory clearance and regaining market share lost due to previous restrictions [5] - Domestic tech giants are seizing the opportunity to procure H200 chips, with significant orders planned by companies like Alibaba and ByteDance [6] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The computer industry has shown a performance of -1.4% over 1 month, -6.5% over 3 months, and 11.6% over 12 months, compared to the CSI 300 index which has performed at 3.1%, 2.4%, and 16.8% respectively [3] Market Reactions - Following the conditional opening of H200 exports, major Chinese tech firms are rapidly increasing their procurement of high-end computing power, with Alibaba planning to purchase 40,000 to 50,000 H200 chips [6] - Other companies like Tencent are exploring alternative high-performance computing options, indicating a diverse strategy among domestic firms [6] Procurement Analysis - The initial shipment of 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips is estimated to generate potential sales of several hundred billion RMB, highlighting the significant market demand for these chips [7][8] - The attractiveness of H200 compared to less powerful alternatives is expected to drive continued demand in the Chinese market [8] Long-term Implications - The conditional release of H200 may delay the progress of domestic chip alternatives, as companies may postpone their plans for self-sufficiency in favor of immediate access to high-performance chips [9] - However, there is a growing consensus on the need for self-sufficiency, with discussions around a "matching procurement" mechanism to ensure that large imports of H200 are accompanied by purchases of domestic chips [9][10] Industry Outlook - The demand for AI computing power is expected to remain high, driven by substantial investments in AI and the potential of the AI inference market [11] - The industry is likely to benefit from ongoing developments in domestic chip technology, with companies like Baidu and Huawei making strides in self-developed chips [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520), driven by significant developments in the domestic AI industry and the strategic importance of domestic chip procurement. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) showed strong performance in early trading, with prices rising over 1.8% at one point and currently up 1.38%, recovering the 60-day moving average and aiming for a fourth consecutive daily gain [1][8] - Among the constituent stocks, Chip Original Co. led with a rise of over 7%, followed by Yuntian Lifei with over 5%, and Cambricon Technologies with over 4% [1][8] Group 2: Domestic Chip Procurement - ByteDance is expected to procure Ascend chips from Huawei by 2026, with total orders potentially exceeding 40 billion yuan [3][10] - National Investment Securities notes that the domestic computing power sector is undergoing significant changes, with continuous iterations of domestic chips represented by Huawei's Ascend and major internet companies gradually adapting to these chips [3][10] Group 3: Strategic Importance of AI - The current period is described as a "golden window" for the AI sector, driven by policy support and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing technological self-reliance [5][12] - The new five-year plan emphasizes improving the level of technological self-reliance as a core goal, providing long-term support for AI and domestic substitution [5][12] Group 4: Industry Performance and Trends - As of the third quarter of 2025, 20 out of 30 constituent companies of the ETF reported profitability, with 22 companies showing year-on-year growth in net profit, indicating strong industry performance [6][12] - There is a significant demand for domestic AI applications to catch up with international counterparts, suggesting a potential for price recovery in the domestic AI application sector [6][12] Group 5: Investment Characteristics of the ETF - The ETF focuses on the domestic AI industry chain, with over 70% of its top ten holdings concentrated in this area, and more than half of its holdings in the semiconductor sector, indicating a high concentration and aggressive investment strategy [13] - The ETF serves as an efficient tool for investors looking to gain exposure to domestic computing power [13]

国投证券指出，国产算力从供给侧和需求侧均迎来新的变化，一方面以华为昇腾为代表的国产算力芯片持续迭代，另一方面，国内互 联网大厂逐步适配国产芯片，建议关注国产算力产业链。 数据显示，截至11月底，科创人工智能ETF（589520）标的指数中，字节跳动产业链成份股权重占比达33.66%。 站在当前时点，科创人工智能方向正处在一个具有战略意义的"黄金窗口期"： 今日（12月29日）早盘，字节产业链含量33%的科创人工智能ETF（589520）早盘强势，场内价格一度涨超1.8%，现涨1.38%，盘中 收复60日均线，冲击日线4连阳！ 成份股方面，芯原股份领涨超7%，云天励飞涨逾5%，寒武纪涨超4%，道通科技、复旦微电、恒玄科技、石头科技等个股跟涨。 消息面上，曝字节跳动2026年将从华为采购昇腾芯片，订单总额或超400亿元。 【国产替代之光，科创自立自强】 科技摩擦背景下，信息安全、产业安全重要性凸显。AI作为核心技术，实现自主可控至关重要。科创人工智能ETF（589520）及其联 接基金（联接A：024560，联接C：024561）重点布局国产AI产业链、具备较强国产替代特点，前十大重仓股权重占比逾七成，第一 大重 ...

Group 1: Xiaomi and Investment Plans - Xiaomi's Vice Chairman Lin Bin plans to sell up to $2 billion of company shares starting December 2026, with a maximum of $500 million per year, to establish an investment fund focused on emerging technologies and sports [4] - Lin Bin previously reduced his holdings in June 2022, with part of the proceeds donated to his alma mater and other public welfare projects [4] Group 2: ByteDance and Huawei Partnership - ByteDance is expected to purchase Ascend chips from Huawei in 2026, with total orders potentially exceeding 40 billion yuan, driven by risks from NVIDIA's supply issues and increasing demand in cloud computing [5] Group 3: Meta's AI Strategy - Meta has shifted its focus entirely to AI, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg describing the approach as "hell mode," involving hundreds of billions in investment and a restructuring of the AI department while reducing resources for the metaverse [6] Group 4: OpenAI Recruitment - OpenAI is hiring a safety officer with an annual salary of $555,000 (approximately 4 million yuan) to address potential risks associated with AI models, as the company anticipates impacts on mental health by 2025 [7] Group 5: Silver Price Surge - The price of silver has surged over 17% in the past week, raising concerns from Tesla CEO Elon Musk about supply bottlenecks affecting industries reliant on silver, such as solar panels and electronics [8] Group 6: Chasing Technology's Growth - Chasing Technology announced an additional year-end bonus of 1 gram of gold for all employees, with a reported compound annual growth rate exceeding 100% for six consecutive years, and projected revenue for the first half of 2025 to surpass the total revenue for 2024 [9] Group 7: Qianfang Technology's Investment in Autonomous Logistics - Qianfang Technology plans to invest 956 million yuan in the development of key technologies for unmanned logistics, focusing on L4-level autonomous trucks and related software subscription services [10] Group 8: LG Display's New Product Launch - LG Display showcased the world's first 39-inch 5K2K curved OLED panel with a refresh rate of 720Hz and a response time of 0.02ms, aimed at content creators, set to be featured at CES 2026 [11] Group 9: CATL's Sodium Battery Plans - CATL announced plans for large-scale application of sodium batteries in various sectors, including battery swapping, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and energy storage by 2026, indicating a dual trend of sodium and lithium battery usage [12] Group 10: Zepto's IPO Application - Indian instant delivery platform Zepto has secretly submitted an IPO application, positioning itself as one of the most anticipated listings in the Indian market for the upcoming year, with over 45,000 products available on its platform [13] Group 11: UBTECH's Acquisition of Fenglong Shares - UBTECH is set to become the controlling shareholder of Fenglong Shares, committing not to pursue a reverse merger for 36 months post-control change, and no asset restructuring plans for the next 12 months [14][15] Group 12: Successful Flight of Domestic Tiltrotor Aircraft - The first domestically developed 6-ton tiltrotor aircraft, "Lan Ying R6000," successfully completed its maiden flight in Sichuan, featuring vertical takeoff and landing capabilities and a maximum range exceeding 4,000 kilometers [16]

盘前要闻 1、财政部：明年财政将大力提振消费，继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 全国财政工作会议12月27日至28日在北京召开。会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。财政 部部长蓝佛安表示，明年财政将大力提振消费。深入实施提振消费专项行动，继续安排资金支持消费品 以旧换新，调整优化补贴范围和标准。 2、白银突破83美元后跳水，马斯克警告"这不好"！散户高呼明年冲100美元 类型：市场 情绪影响：中性 今日早盘现货白银持续拉升涨超5%，突破83美元，继续刷新历史新高，但随后冲高回落抹去日内涨 幅。随着白银价格飙升至历史新高，马斯克警告制造商可能会承受后果，许多工业流程都需要白银。有 调查显示，57%散户交易员预计白银明年交易价格将高于每盎司100美元。 3、交易所推出降费让利措施：免收上市公司上市费，减免交易单元使用费等 类型：市场 情绪影响：正面 沪深交易所同步发布通知，宣布推出2026年度系列降费措施。这不仅是资本市场落实中央经济工作会议 精神的具体行动，更是一场"真金白银"的及时雨。据初步测算，两大交易所预计降费总金额将超过19亿 元人民币。政策覆盖了股票、基金、债券等 ...