J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 08 January 2026 Micron Technology Mgmt Mtg: Supply Tightness Seen Persisting Beyond CY26 Even as Additional Capacity Comes Online, Supporting Further Strength in Pricing; Reit OW We hosted an investor group meeting with MU's CFO, Mark Murphy, CBO, Sumit Sadana, and Senior Director of Investor Relations, Samir Patodia. Below we highlight our key takeaways: See page 4 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business wi ...

Rising demand for advanced memory chips is beginning to strain global supply chains, creating fresh pricing pressure across the electronics industry. Samsung Electronics Co., the world's largest memor... ...

In a non-development that would have been inconceivable 20, 30 or 40 years ago, a military went into an OPEC country–a founding member, no less–captured its leader, took him away and oil markets yawned. The biggest move in any key oil price since the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro may have come Tuesday when the benchmark diesel price used for most fuel surcharges declined 2.3 cents/gallon to $3.477/g, the sixth week in a row the price has declined. It was posted Tuesday, effective Mon ...

Elon Musk has raised the alarm for manufacturers after silver prices surged to record highs in late December. Precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum – often seen as a hedge for investors – have rallied this year, amid a mix of geopolitical risk driving investors to safe-haven assets and expectations of easing Federal Reserve policy in 2026. But silver has been in the drivers’ seat during the festive month ahead of fresh restrictions on exports from China which start on Jan. 1. That has caused a ...

The value of silver has risen by 159pc since the start of the year - Wei Leng Tay/Bloomberg Silver is on track for its best year since 1979 as a Chinese crackdown on exports helps fuel a huge price rally. The precious metal jumped by 6.29pc on Friday to hit an all-time high of $76.37 (£56.59) per ounce. Silver has now risen by 159pc since the start of the year, more than double the 70pc rise in gold prices recorded so far this year. Precious metals are considered a safe-haven asset and investors have ...

El Al Israel Airlines Ltd. (TASE:ELAL) VP marketing and digital and communications Nadav Hanin told Globes correspondent Ela Levi-Weinrib at the Israel Business Conference that even though the local aviation industry has begun to stabilize, global problems will negatively affect Israel. "There is an imbalance between supply and demand in the world. There is a shortage in the supply chain, both of aircraft and of engines. Companies like Virgin have been forced to ground part of their fleet because there ar ...

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology's stock is expected to experience further upside due to a widening supply-demand imbalance in the semiconductor market, as indicated by UBS's reiterated "buy" rating on the company [1] Group 1: Company Insights - UBS has maintained a "buy" rating on Micron Technology, suggesting confidence in the company's potential for stock price appreciation [1] - The semiconductor market is currently facing a significant supply-demand imbalance, which is likely to benefit Micron Technology [1]

Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing significant disruptions due to incidents at Indonesia's Grasberg mine, leading to revised supply forecasts and price expectations [1][5]. Supply Disruptions - The Grasberg mine, which typically contributes around 3% of global copper production, has declared force majeure following a heavy mudflow incident that resulted in fatalities and missing workers [3][4]. - Freeport-McMoRan expects minimal production in Q4 2025, with only 30%-40% of capacity likely to restart by mid-quarter, and full production may not resume until 2026, resulting in a potential 35% reduction from earlier forecasts [4][6]. Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has revised its copper supply outlook, estimating a total loss of 525,000 tons across 2025 and 2026, flipping its 2025 copper balance from a surplus of 105,000 tons to a deficit of 55,000 tons [5][6]. - The bank now anticipates copper prices could rise to $10,200-$10,500 per ton by December 2025, with an average of $10,750 per ton expected by 2027 [6]. Market Reactions - Following the incident, Freeport's shares dropped nearly 17%, marking the steepest one-day decline since March 2020, and the stock is down over 20% for the week [6]. - Analysts from different institutions have varying forecasts, with ING predicting an average of $9,837 per ton in 2026, while J.P. Morgan is more conservative, projecting $9,400 per ton in Q1 2026 [7]. Broader Market Trends - The copper market is facing tightening supply due to unplanned disruptions, which affected 5.7% of global copper output in 2024 and are expected to exceed 6% in the current year [8]. - The fragility of supply chains has been highlighted by the Grasberg incident, emphasizing copper's critical role in electrification and the significant impact of even small supply deficits [9].

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio emphasizes that gold and non-fiat currencies are becoming stronger stores of value due to the devaluation risks faced by major currencies amid increasing global debt pressures [1][2]. Economic Concerns - The excessive spending and spiraling debt of the U.S. government are deemed "unsustainable," leading to a potential fiscal crisis that threatens the monetary order [2][3]. - Dalio highlights that the U.S. debt has reached a critical point, with a need for the government to sell an additional $12 trillion in debt to cover a $2 trillion deficit, $1 trillion in interest payments, and $9 trillion in maturing borrowings [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios, allocating around 10% to gold as a hedge against currency devaluation [3]. - The supply-demand imbalance in the market is exacerbated by the government's inability to balance its debt levels, despite proposals to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP [6]. Currency Dynamics - The U.S. dollar has depreciated over 10% against other major currencies this year, yet these currencies have also weakened relative to gold, which is now the second-largest reserve currency globally [4]. - While the U.S. dollar will maintain its role as a medium of exchange, the increasing prominence of the Chinese currency in global trade may diminish the dollar's influence [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **global commodities market**, with a focus on **oil**, **natural gas**, **copper**, and **cocoa** markets. Core Insights and Arguments Oil Market - President Trump has issued a 50-day ultimatum to Russia regarding oil exports, threatening 100% secondary tariffs if no deal is reached, which could significantly impact economic growth and oil demand [6] - Oil consumption is on the rise due to improved travel demand and trade activities, with global liquid stocks increasing by 191 million barrels year-to-date through July 11 [7] - The US oil rig count has decreased by two units, primarily in Delaware, Texas, leading to a modest downward revision of US supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [13] Natural Gas - Natural gas remains strategically important to Russia, which is exploring alternative markets due to the EU's plan to phase out Russian gas [9] - The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline is under discussion as a potential route for Russian gas to China, but concerns over pricing and supply concentration remain [9] Copper Market - A proposed 50% tariff on copper imports could lead to a 4% reduction in refined copper demand growth in the US next year, although this represents only a 0.2% impact on global demand [9] - The US exports 540-580 thousand metric tons of copper contained in scrap annually, which could help reduce import dependence on copper cathode [9] - The US has significant copper project potential, but new supply responses are not expected until the next decade due to long lead times [9] Cocoa Market - The cocoa market has experienced a sharp decline in prices, attributed to demand-side destruction, but prices are expected to remain structurally higher due to multi-season availability constraints [3][11] - The medium-term price forecast for cocoa is set at $6,000 per tonne as the market seeks balance, likely by 2025/26 [11] Additional Important Insights - The global commodity market open interest has rebounded by 2.2% week-over-week, with energy leading the charge, although base metals have seen outflows [12] - The overall economic outlook for the second half of 2025 is expected to be stagflationary, with sluggish growth anticipated [12] - The cocoa market's long-term structural price increase is supported by ongoing supply constraints despite short-term demand destruction [3][11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics within the global commodities market and the implications for various sectors.