All right, joining us, Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland. Senator, really good to have you. I first want to ask you about the war in Iran, this $200 billion supplemental that could come to Congress.Where do you stand on it. Would you vote yes or no. So, Katie, good to be with you.I would vote no. This WAR IN IRAN, IT'S AN ILLEGAL WAR OF CHOICE. IT'S MAKING AMERICANS LESS SAFE, NOT MORE SAFE, CREATING HUGE INSTABILITY IN THE REGION.IT'S COST US IN LIVES. IT'S ALSO COSTING US EVERY DAY IN TREASU ...

Yesterday the Supreme Court underscored a principle that's in part of the Constitution of the United States of America from the very beginning. Even the most powerful president in the world cannot rewrite the Constitution to win an argument about economics. 24 hours ago, President Trump suffered a significant legal defeat on one of the defining policies of his political identity, his tariffs.For years, Donald Trump described tariffs as a kind of economic superpower, a way to punish foreign countries and ric ...

This is just a tremendous day, a huge win for the Constitution, for folks who cover tax policy, for anybody who remembers the Revolutionary War, we fought against specifically a taxation power that Congress did not have any say over. So this is, in my opinion, the largest and most impactful macroeconomic ruling the courts have ever delivered. So just a tremendous day.It is in line with what the market was expecting. You could see that investors were very prepared to rip the retail stocks. Everybody, everybo ...

Americans can expect jumbo-sized refund cheques after the tax-filing season wraps up in April. On top of that will be plenty of headline-grabbers such as “no tax on tips” and “no tax on overtime” https://t.co/DS3FPWF8Da ...

Regulatory Landscape - Tax policy is becoming a contentious issue with limited consensus [1] - Stablecoin frameworks reveal divisions between central banks and governments [1] - Exchanges are seeking favorable jurisdictions due to struggling local markets [1] - User growth in emerging markets is exceeding regulatory development [1]

Investment & Economic Outlook - US orders for business equipment increased in July more than projected [1] - Companies are moving forward on investment plans [1] - Trade and tax policy uncertainty gradually diminishes [1]

Capex Boom & Economic Growth - Business equipment production rose 23% in Q1, and GDP accounts showed a 24% increase [4] - Q2 showed a near 11% increase, resulting in a 17% annualized gain over two quarters, the largest since 1997 (excluding the pandemic) [4][5] - The extension of tax policy incentivized companies to invest in capital [6] - Expects capex trajectory to remain strong, fostering upward pressure on wages [7] - Sees potential for a "blue wages boom" with non-supervisory production workers earning bigger paychecks [7] - The administration's outlook is based on 3% growth, considered doable due to productivity trends and labor force participation [18][20] - Expects AI boom to generate quicker payoffs from capital investment [20] - If growth reaches 3%, there could be an additional $4 trillion not counted by the CBO, potentially alleviating deficit concerns [21] Tariffs & Inflation - Tariffs have not had the expected effect on price data, with most of the tariff being absorbed in the margin [12] - The majority of the tariff has been absorbed in the margin [12] - The US could be collecting $300 billion in tariffs, but inflation data has been minimal [13] - Energy costs and capex tend to be disinflationary, offsetting potential lingering effects from tariffs [14] International Trade & Investment - Japan will commit over $500 billion (550 billion) to the US through an innovation fund [16]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest overall fiscal impulse from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), suggesting a cautious investment outlook for the affected sectors [5][6][27]. Core Insights - The OBBBA is expected to provide significant cash flow benefits primarily through upfront R&D expensing and bonus depreciation, particularly benefiting sectors like technology, communication services, and healthcare [5][10][12]. - The fiscal impulse from the OBBBA is projected to add approximately 0.4 percentage points to real GDP in 2026, although this is not sufficient to offset drags from trade and immigration policies [27][45][57]. - The report identifies potential beneficiaries among companies with substantial R&D and capital expenditures, focusing on those with significant pre-tax earnings and meaningful cash taxes [5][24][25]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Implications - The OBBBA implies higher incremental deficits than previously anticipated, with a projected 2026 deficit of 7.1% of GDP, influenced by increased tariff revenues [6][12][59]. - The bill's provisions are expected to lead to front-loaded deficits and back-loaded surpluses, indicating a short-term fiscal impulse that may later turn into a fiscal drag [5][38][57]. Sectoral Impacts - Clean Tech: The final bill is viewed positively for most subsectors, alleviating investor concerns regarding the repeal of IRA tax credits [7]. - Consumer: Smaller cuts to SNAP in the final bill reduce headwinds for packaged foods, beverages, retail, and restaurants [7]. - Software: The reinstatement of upfront R&D expensing is likely to provide a cash flow tailwind for large-cap corporates [7][10]. Tax Provisions - Upfront R&D expensing allows companies to accelerate cash tax savings, particularly benefiting sectors like tech and healthcare [10][12]. - The reinstatement of 100% first-year bonus depreciation for qualified property and equipment is expected to positively impact capital-intensive sectors such as aerospace and defense, telecom, and energy [10][12]. Cash Flow and Earnings - The report emphasizes that the majority of OBBBA policies will impact cash flows rather than reported earnings, with significant cash tax savings anticipated in the near term [8][10][12]. - The cash tax rate is expected to potentially reach new lows due to the reinstated and expanded expensing provisions [9][12]. Deficit and Rates - The report notes that concerns regarding fiscal policy under the new administration have somewhat diminished, with the 10-year yield remaining below 4.50% [14][57]. - The OBBBA is projected to result in a lower fiscal deficit in 2025 compared to prior forecasts, while maintaining a broadly unchanged deficit forecast for 2026 [59][60].

Social Security Overpayment Recovery - The Social Security Administration is recouping overpayments by withholding 50% of a beneficiary's monthly check until the total overpayment is reclaimed [1] - Beneficiaries can contact the Social Security Administration to request smaller payment amounts or petition to waive the payment altogether if they cannot afford it [6][7] - Beneficiaries can also request a reconsideration if they believe they were not overpaid or it wasn't their fault [7] Impact of Income on Social Security Benefits - Capital gains from selling a house are not considered earned income and will not directly affect Social Security benefit amounts [10] - Increases in provisional income can lead to a greater portion of Social Security benefits being subject to income tax; provisional income is calculated as adjusted gross income (AGI) plus municipal bond interest and half of Social Security benefits [11] Senior Tax Deduction - A new tax policy includes an additional deduction of up to $6,000 per taxpayer aged 65 and older, regardless of whether they currently receive Social Security benefits [12][13] - The senior deduction is age-based, not benefit-dependent, and is available to both itemizers and those using the standard deduction, requiring a valid Social Security number [13][14] - The deduction is temporary, set to expire in 2028, and is subject to modified adjusted gross income phase-outs beginning at $150,000 for joint filers [14][15] - The White House projects this deduction will increase the number of beneficiaries paying no tax on their benefits from 40-50% to 88% [15] Roth IRA Conversion Planning - A $6,000 deduction equates to $12,000 per couple, but this deduction is reduced to zero between $150,000 and $250,000 of modified adjusted gross income, creating a potential tax cliff for Roth conversions at the $150,000 level [16][17] - Taxpayers should model Roth conversions before executing them to determine whether it's more beneficial to convert before or after age 65 [18] Medicare Premiums - The $6,000 senior deduction can lower adjusted gross income, potentially impacting Medicare premiums, which are determined by adjusted gross income on a sliding scale [20] - Changes in adjusted gross income affect Medicare premiums with a two-year lag; for example, 2025 premiums are based on 2023 income [21] - The Medicare Part B premium is estimated to increase 11% to above $200 for 2022 [21]

Policy Change - The megabill aims to implement work requirements for Medicaid beneficiaries, a policy long supported by Republicans [1] Potential Impact - The policy change might affect Americans [1]