Trade Negotiation

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加拿大在与美国的贸易谈判中秀肌肉——加强谈论养老基金的杠杆作用。负责美国贸易事务的部长Dominic LeBlanc称,加方养老基金行业可以扩大在美国的投资。LeBlanc认为,加拿大养老基金行业在美国的投资规模已经超过1万亿美元,未来每年还能再增长1000亿美元甚至更多。
news flash· 2025-07-24 21:11
Core Viewpoint - Canada is leveraging its pension fund industry to enhance investment in the U.S., with potential for significant growth in future investments [1] Group 1: Investment Potential - The Canadian pension fund industry has already invested over $1 trillion in the U.S. [1] - There is an expectation for annual growth in investments by an additional $100 billion or more [1]
摩根大通:东盟股票策略_审视交易、谈判及新关税情况
摩根· 2025-07-14 00:36
Investment Rating - The report upgrades Vietnam to Overweight (OW) within ASEAN, alongside Singapore and the Philippines, while maintaining Neutral on Indonesia and Malaysia, and Underweight on Thailand [1][18]. Core Insights - Vietnam's recent tariff deal with the US, setting a 20% rate on domestically-produced goods, is viewed as a significant positive development, potentially boosting foreign direct investment (FDI) and supporting economic growth [3][19]. - The report anticipates that announcements of trade deals and lower tariffs will serve as key catalysts for market movements in the near term, particularly for countries actively negotiating with the US [4][19]. - Despite the positive outlook, the report cautions that it is still early for earnings forecasts to rebound, with potential risks of downward revisions remaining [4][19]. Summary by Sections Tariff Negotiations - Vietnam has successfully negotiated a reduction in tariffs from 46% to 20%, with a 40% tariff on transshipment goods, which may impact exports with significant Chinese content [5][19]. - Other ASEAN countries, including Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, are still in discussions with the US regarding tariff negotiations [1][5]. Economic Growth and FDI - Vietnam's GDP growth is projected to approach 8% in 2Q25, driven by public spending and investment disbursement, distinguishing it from other ASEAN nations with limited fiscal room [18][20]. - The report highlights that Vietnam's manufacturing and export sectors are expected to remain resilient, supported by a favorable tariff environment compared to China [19][20]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include industrial real estate, ports, logistics, construction, and technology producers, which are expected to benefit from the lifting of uncertainties surrounding trade policies [4][15]. - The report recommends a focus on domestic growth proxies, particularly in Vietnam's banking, industrial, and consumer discretionary sectors [18][19].
贵金属数据日报-20250710
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 06:19
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: On July 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.0% to 776.82 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.2% to 889 yuan/kilogram. Trump extended the tariff suspension to August 1 and pressured for talks. The new tariff letter's tax rate did not increase significantly, and the US said it would meet with Chinese officials next month. This eased tariff concerns and reduced safe - haven demand, which was bearish for precious metals from a macro perspective. Also, the US economic data was okay, the economic downturn risk in the second half of the year weakened, and the Fed was unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, which also suppressed precious metals. However, due to tariff policy uncertainties, China's central bank's continuous gold - buying for 8 months, and weakening US inflation expectations with a September rate - cut expectation, gold prices were unlikely to decline significantly. So, in the short term, precious metals were expected to continue to fluctuate [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still had a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, global central banks' gold - buying continued. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of gold remained unchanged. The strategy suggested continuous low - buying [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Tracking - **15 - point prices of domestic and foreign gold and silver**: On July 9, 2025, London gold spot was 3293.35 dollars/ounce, down 1.3% from July 8; London silver spot was 36.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. COMEX gold was 3301.80 dollars/ounce, down 1.3%; CONEX silver was 36.80 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. AU2508 was 764.70 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG2508 was 8879.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.5%. AU (T + D) was 763.00 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG (T + D) was 8864.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.6% [3]. - **Price differences/ratios**: On July 9, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 1.7 yuan/gram, up - 8.6% from July 8; the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 15 yuan/kilogram, up 36.4%. The gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was 5.50 yuan/gram, up 11.3%; the silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was - 574 yuan/kilogram, up - 1.9%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 86.12, down - 0.7%; the COMEX main ratio was 89.72, down - 0.6%. AU2512 - 2508 was 3.82 yuan/gram, down - 6.4%; AG2512 - 2508 was 40 yuan/kilogram, down - 14.9% [3]. Position Data - **ETF and COMEX non - commercial positions**: As of July 8, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 946.51 tons, down - 0.12% from July 7; the silver ETF - SLV was 14935.15145 tons, up 0.45%. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 258631 contracts, up 1.00%; non - commercial short positions were 56651 contracts, down - 7.24%; non - commercial net long positions were 201980 contracts, up 3.58%. CONEX silver non - commercial long positions were 82747 contracts, down - 2.06%; non - commercial short positions were 19347 contracts, down - 10.20%; non - commercial net long positions were 63400 contracts, up 0.72% [3]. Inventory Data - **Domestic and foreign inventories**: On July 9, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 21585.00 kilograms, up 0.13% from July 8; SHFE silver inventory was 1320909.00 kilograms, down - 1.04%. On July 8, COMEX gold inventory was 36876794 ounces, up 0.43% from July 7; COMEX silver inventory was 497932946 ounces, down - 0.07% [3]. Related Market Indexes - **July 9, 2025 data**: The dollar index was 97.49, up 0.01% from July 8; the US 2 - year Treasury yield was 3.90%, unchanged; the 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.42%, up 0.06%. VIX was 16.81, down - 5.51%; the S&P 500 was 6225.52, up 0.45%; NYMEX crude oil was 68.18 dollars/barrel, down - 0.07%. The dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, up 0.38% [4].
摩根士丹利:随着美中贸易谈判即将启动,A 股市场情绪有所改善。
摩根· 2025-05-09 05:19
Investment Rating - The report advises a balanced portfolio with high-quality, large-cap offshore internet names and A-share blue-chip consumer names [1][12]. Core Insights - A-share investor sentiment improved significantly, with the weighted Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) rising by 9 percentage points to 76% [2][6]. - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) announced a monetary easing package, including a 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 10 basis point cut in the policy rate to 1.4% [11]. - High-level US-China trade negotiations are set to begin, which could lead to a gradual removal of tariffs, although a durable resolution remains uncertain [4][11]. Summary by Sections Investor Sentiment - The weighted MSASI improved to 76%, while the simple MSASI rose to 67% [2][6]. - Average daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, and Northbound increased by 13%, 12%, and 19% respectively compared to the previous cycle [2]. Trade Negotiations - Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, marking the first high-level talks since tariff escalations [4]. - Current US effective tariffs on China are at 107%, with a potential reduction to 45% by year-end [4]. Monetary Policy - The PBoC's recent easing measures include a Rmb1.1 trillion lift in relending quota and support for the stock market [11]. - The easing package exceeded market expectations and indicates further room for monetary support [11]. Market Monitoring - Key indicators to monitor include the progress of US-China talks, potential tariff pauses, and developments regarding non-tariff measures against China [13].