智通财经APP获悉，华源证券发布研报称，2026年春节期间，VLCC运价高位大涨。VLCC一年期期租 租金在基本面和"长锦因素"催化下，大涨至9.3万美元/日，创1988年以来历史新高。截至2月20日， VLCC中东线FFA已定价2月均值至14.7万美元/日，3月均值至16.9万美元/日。VLCC运价在2026年Q1的 强势表现由基本面、供给侧重构和地缘变局，三重趋势性利好推动。标的上，建议关注招商轮船 (601872.SH)、中远海能(600026.SH,01138)、招商南油(601975.SH)。 华源证券主要观点如下： VLCC运价春节大涨，期租租金创历史新高 2026年春节期间，VLCC运价高位大涨。2月20日，VLCC中东线、西非/拉美线、美湾线运价分别为15.7 万、13.7万、10.1万美元/日(较2月13日分别大涨28.5%、28.7%、8.7%)，超过2025年11月时最高水平， 创下2020年4月以来的新高。更值得注意的是，VLCC一年期期租租金在基本面和"长锦因素"催化下， 大涨至9.3万美元/日(2月20日，较2月13日大涨28.5%)，创1988年以来历史新高。 "百船王"长锦商船 ...

地缘方面，据央视网2月23日消息，就在美伊释放谈判信号的同时，美国对伊朗展开军事打击的风险依 然存在。另据报道，美媒援引美国中央情报局前情报人员的话称，美国可能在2月23日或2月24日对伊朗 发动军事打击。 消息面上，春节假期VLCC运价持续上涨，创近10年最高水平。根据华创证券，截至2026年2月20日， 克拉克森VLCC-TCE收于14.2万美元/天，周环比增长24.5%；其中，中东-中国航线收于15.7万美元/天， 周环比增长26%。一年期VLCC期租价格也继续涨至9.25万美元/天，周环比增长28.5%。该行认为，地 缘风险溢价+长锦大举"扫货"+制裁强化，VLCC市场正面临近乎空前的高涨情绪。 中远海能（600026）(01138)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.08%，报18.89港元，成交额1.84亿港元。 ...

2月24日消息， 盘中涨超4%，年内已累涨逾90%，截至发稿，回落至1.82%，报18.48港元，成交额近3亿港元。 A股触 及涨停。 地缘方面，据央视网2月23日消息，就在美伊释放谈判信号的同时，美国对伊朗展开军事打击的风险依然存在。另据 报道，美媒援引美国中央情报局前情报人员的话称，美国可能在2月23日或2月24日对伊朗发动军事打击。 编辑/rice 消息面上，春节假期VLCC运价持续上涨，创近10年最高水平。根据华创证券，截至2026年2月20日，克拉克森VLCC- TCE收于14.2万美元/天，周环比增长24.5%；其中，中东-中国航线收于15.7万美元/天，周环比增长26%。一年期VLCC 期租价格也继续涨至9.25万美元/天，周环比增长28.5%。该行认为，地缘风险溢价+长锦大举"扫货"+制裁强化，VLCC 市场正面临近乎空前的高涨情绪。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China Merchants Energy (01138) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 12.13 with a transaction volume of HKD 247 million [1] - According to a report by Shenwan Hongyuan, the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates are expected to be exceptionally strong in Q4 2025, with the average quarterly freight rate reaching the fourth highest in history [1] - The VLCC market is anticipated to experience structural changes in 2026, leading to unexpected growth, driven by new refinery capacity in China contributing approximately 1.7% to VLCC demand growth [1] Group 2 - The report also indicates that the "compliance" of Venezuelan crude oil is expected to increase VLCC demand by 2.1% [1] - Geopolitical changes in regions such as Iran and Russia are projected to contribute additional growth in VLCC demand [1] - The estimated average VLCC freight rate for Q4 is around USD 95,500 per day, leading to an estimated performance of approximately RMB 1.9 billion for China Merchants Energy in Q4 [1]

Core Viewpoint - COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能) has seen its stock price rise over 4% in a bearish market, currently trading at 11.51 HKD with a transaction volume of 1.82 billion HKD, driven by record-high VLCC daily charter rates [1] Group 1: VLCC Market Dynamics - VLCC daily charter rates have reached a new high, exceeding 125,000 USD, with the VLCC TD3C-TCE index at 12.58 million USD/day, reflecting a 20% increase week-on-week and a 23% increase month-on-month [1] - The recent surge in VLCC rates is attributed to two main factors: increased production and the gradual realization of sanctions, leading to marginal benefits in both demand quantity and structure, while supply-side compliant capacity growth remains constrained [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - CITIC Securities (中信建投) reported that 80% of VLCC charter rates for Q4 have been locked in at 88,000 USD per day, suggesting that if the average VLCC charter rate for Q4 is assumed to be 100,000 USD per day, COSCO Shipping Energy's net profit for Q4 could range between 2 to 2.5 billion HKD [1] - The firm maintains a "buy" rating for COSCO Shipping Energy's stock on the Hong Kong market based on these projections [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Ocean Shipping Energy (01138) has seen a rise of over 4%, attributed to positive market sentiment following comments from U.S. President Trump regarding India's potential halt on Russian oil purchases, alongside favorable earnings forecasts from Bank of America and other analysts [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - China Ocean Shipping Energy's stock rose by 3.85% to HKD 9.71, with a trading volume of HKD 112 million [1]. - Bank of America noted that the company's operating performance in the first half of the year met expectations, with net profit exceeding forecasts due to one-time gains [1]. - The bank has raised its earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027, reflecting favorable conditions in the oil tanker market due to OPEC+ production increases and tightening U.S. sanctions [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The Chinese Ministry of Transport announced a port service fee for U.S. vessels in response to U.S. port fees on Chinese ships, effective from October 14 [1]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the shipping industry may experience temporary disruptions in effective capacity, which could increase freight rates, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) [1]. - Huatai Securities reported strong demand in the crude oil tanker market in September, predicting that OPEC+ production increases will stimulate inventory replenishment and cross-regional arbitrage demand, leading to a potential rise in VLCC freight rates in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [1].

Core Viewpoint - VLCC freight rates have reached the highest level for September since 1990, with VLCCTD3cTCE hitting $96,000/day on September 16, 2025, and expected to maintain high levels in the following days [1][2] Group 1: VLCC Freight Rates - VLCCTD3cTCE reached $96,000/day on September 16, 2025, marking the best September freight rate since 1990, matching the peak from September 2004 [2] - The upcoming week is the last full working week before China's National Day holiday, with a concentration of Middle Eastern cargoes expected for October, alongside the lowest available VLCC capacity in the past year [2] Group 2: Iron Ore Market - The Ximangdu iron ore project officially commenced operations on September 14, 2025, with the first batch of shipments expected in November 2025, potentially supporting the bulk shipping market from Q4 [3] - The project has iron ore reserves exceeding 2.25 billion tons, with an annual production capacity of 120 million tons, requiring at least 155 Capesize vessels for transportation, which is about 7.6% of the current Capesize fleet [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - With OPEC+ increasing oil production and the Ximangdu iron ore project coming online, combined with potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve boosting global commodity demand, the oil and bulk shipping markets are expected to experience a positive cycle starting from Q4 2025 [4] - Companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872), COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026), Haitong Development (603162), HNA Technology (600751), and Air China Ocean Shipping (833171) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) has increased by over 6%, reaching HKD 9.28, with a trading volume of HKD 218 million, driven by rising VLCC freight rates and positive market outlook for Q4 2023 [1] Group 1: Freight Rate Performance - On September 11, the VLCC freight rate reached USD 74,338 per day, marking a year-on-year increase of 113%, surpassing the seasonal data for Q4 2023 and 2024 [1] - On September 12, the WS freight rate index stood at 93.6 points, reflecting a 7.4% increase compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - According to Zheshang Securities, VLCC freight rates are expected to reach a three-year high during the Q4 peak season, indicating potential earnings elasticity for the company [1] - The supply-demand dynamics are tightening, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production, limited delivery capacity on the supply side, and ongoing sanctions on Russian and Iranian fleets in Europe and the U.S., leading to a constrained overall fleet supply [1] - The expanding supply-demand gap is anticipated to manifest in freight rates, with the potential for new highs in this round of market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyuan Shipping (01138) has seen a stock price increase of over 6%, currently trading at 9.28 HKD with a transaction volume of 218 million HKD, driven by rising VLCC freight rates and positive market outlook for Q4 [1] Group 1: Freight Rate Performance - On September 11, the VLCC freight rate reached 74,338 USD/day, marking a year-on-year increase of 113%, surpassing the seasonal data for Q4 2023 and 2024 [1] - On September 12, the WS freight rate index stood at 93.6 points, reflecting a 7.4% increase compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - According to Zheshang Securities, VLCC freight rates are expected to reach a three-year high during the Q4 peak season, indicating potential earnings elasticity for the company [1] - The supply-demand dynamics are tightening, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production, limited delivery capacity on the supply side, and ongoing sanctions on Russian and Iranian fleets in Europe and the US, leading to a constrained overall fleet supply [1] - The expanding supply-demand gap is anticipated to manifest in freight rates, with the potential for new highs in this round of market conditions [1]