Core Viewpoint - VLCC freight rates have reached the highest level for September since 1990, with VLCCTD3cTCE hitting $96,000/day on September 16, 2025, and expected to maintain high levels in the following days [1][2] Group 1: VLCC Freight Rates - VLCCTD3cTCE reached $96,000/day on September 16, 2025, marking the best September freight rate since 1990, matching the peak from September 2004 [2] - The upcoming week is the last full working week before China's National Day holiday, with a concentration of Middle Eastern cargoes expected for October, alongside the lowest available VLCC capacity in the past year [2] Group 2: Iron Ore Market - The Ximangdu iron ore project officially commenced operations on September 14, 2025, with the first batch of shipments expected in November 2025, potentially supporting the bulk shipping market from Q4 [3] - The project has iron ore reserves exceeding 2.25 billion tons, with an annual production capacity of 120 million tons, requiring at least 155 Capesize vessels for transportation, which is about 7.6% of the current Capesize fleet [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - With OPEC+ increasing oil production and the Ximangdu iron ore project coming online, combined with potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve boosting global commodity demand, the oil and bulk shipping markets are expected to experience a positive cycle starting from Q4 2025 [4] - Companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872), COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026), Haitong Development (603162), HNA Technology (600751), and Air China Ocean Shipping (833171) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) has increased by over 6%, reaching HKD 9.28, with a trading volume of HKD 218 million, driven by rising VLCC freight rates and positive market outlook for Q4 2023 [1] Group 1: Freight Rate Performance - On September 11, the VLCC freight rate reached USD 74,338 per day, marking a year-on-year increase of 113%, surpassing the seasonal data for Q4 2023 and 2024 [1] - On September 12, the WS freight rate index stood at 93.6 points, reflecting a 7.4% increase compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - According to Zheshang Securities, VLCC freight rates are expected to reach a three-year high during the Q4 peak season, indicating potential earnings elasticity for the company [1] - The supply-demand dynamics are tightening, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production, limited delivery capacity on the supply side, and ongoing sanctions on Russian and Iranian fleets in Europe and the U.S., leading to a constrained overall fleet supply [1] - The expanding supply-demand gap is anticipated to manifest in freight rates, with the potential for new highs in this round of market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyuan Shipping (01138) has seen a stock price increase of over 6%, currently trading at 9.28 HKD with a transaction volume of 218 million HKD, driven by rising VLCC freight rates and positive market outlook for Q4 [1] Group 1: Freight Rate Performance - On September 11, the VLCC freight rate reached 74,338 USD/day, marking a year-on-year increase of 113%, surpassing the seasonal data for Q4 2023 and 2024 [1] - On September 12, the WS freight rate index stood at 93.6 points, reflecting a 7.4% increase compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - According to Zheshang Securities, VLCC freight rates are expected to reach a three-year high during the Q4 peak season, indicating potential earnings elasticity for the company [1] - The supply-demand dynamics are tightening, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production, limited delivery capacity on the supply side, and ongoing sanctions on Russian and Iranian fleets in Europe and the US, leading to a constrained overall fleet supply [1] - The expanding supply-demand gap is anticipated to manifest in freight rates, with the potential for new highs in this round of market conditions [1]