港股晨报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 国投证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国投证券国际视点：圣诞行情临近，市场明显反弹 港股市场上周五回暖，三大指数集体收涨。其中，恒生指数升 0.75%，国企指 数升 0.68%，恒生科技指数升 1%，多个板块呈现普涨格局。大市成交金额回升 至2,212亿元，主板总卖空金额约452亿元，占可卖空股票总成交金额约22.19%。 南向资金流（北水）方面，周五净流入约 34 亿元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中， 北水净买入最多的是腾讯控股 700.HK、阿里巴巴 9988.HK、长飞光纤光缆 6869.HK；净卖出最多的是中国移动 941.HK、地平线机器人－Ｗ9660.HK、中芯 国际 981.HK。 分板块来看，烟草概念股表现突出。消息面上，国务院办公厅近日印发《关于 全链条打击涉烟违法活动的意见》，明确要求全方位加强电子烟监管，严打非 法生产与出口回流等乱象。此举将有效净化市场环境，为合规企业带来更大的 发展空间与机遇，提振了板块信心，中烟香港 6055.HK 与思摩尔国际 6969.HK 领涨。消费板块整体做好，汽车股亦表现亮眼，小鹏 9868.HK、零跑 9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a pullback, causing retail investors to become cautious, with ongoing discussions about a potential "double bottom" scenario. The recent dovish comments from Powell, indicating possible interest rate cuts, led to a market rebound, suggesting a potential signal for future trends. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Powell's acknowledgment of economic issues and hints at monetary easing have positively impacted market sentiment, leading to a rebound [1] - Bowman predicts two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year, which could further influence market dynamics [1] - The market is currently characterized by uncertainty, with investors weighing the risks of missing out on lower prices against the fear of buying at a high [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - FalconStable plans to issue 3,500 NFTs, with a lottery for those who stake 1,000 $FF by October 20, which could enhance staking rewards and provide multiple benefits [1] - Anan has launched a $400 million "Together Initiative" to support industry recovery and rebuild confidence [1] - The BSC chain's "Golden Dog" token has shown significant growth, with a fully diluted valuation exceeding $10 million, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Performance - Bitcoin's recent rebound is relatively weak, with a critical resistance level at 113,600 that needs to be surpassed for further upward movement [4] - Ethereum's price action remains weak, with a current support level at 3,985 that will determine if a further correction occurs [7] - The overall sentiment in the altcoin market suggests a potential for rapid rebounds in lower-quality coins, driven by market makers looking to offload positions [2] Group 4: Exchange Asset Transparency - Binance leads with $189.41 billion in assets, but has seen significant outflows, indicating potential liquidity concerns [11] - Other exchanges like Bitfinex and OKX also show substantial asset values but are experiencing outflows, reflecting broader market trends [11] Group 5: Market Strategy and Future Outlook - Investors are advised to focus on high-market-cap assets for secondary market trading, as smaller market cap coins may not provide the same opportunities [12] - The market outlook remains contingent on macroeconomic factors and the ability of exchanges and institutions to restore confidence through transparent measures [10]

Core Viewpoint - UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's statement regarding Chancellor Rachel Reeves' continued tenure calmed market concerns about her potential departure, leading to a market rebound [1] Market Reactions - The 30-year government bond yield fell by 12 basis points to 5.30%, following a significant rise of 19 basis points the previous Wednesday, marking the largest increase since April [1] - The British pound appreciated slightly against the US dollar, trading at 1.3656 after a 0.8% decline the previous day [1] - The FTSE 250 index increased by 0.5% [1] Analyst Commentary - Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen noted that Starmer's remarks effectively reassured the market [1]