Group 1 - The market indices experienced a significant upward movement, completing a shift in trend, influenced by a strong statement from regulatory authorities and a collective rise in European and American stock markets [1] - Regulatory authorities have intensified efforts to combat financial fraud, with 159 cases investigated and over 8.1 billion yuan in penalties imposed since July 2024, which is expected to enhance market governance and support long-term healthy development [1] - The international oil prices have risen nearly 2%, and precious metals like silver and gold have seen increases of over 3% and nearly 2% respectively, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, which may catalyze related sectors [1] Group 2 - The core judgment for today's market trend indicates a higher probability of an upward movement, supported by strong performance in overseas markets, which boosts global risk appetite and indirectly improves sentiment in the A-share market [2] - The rise in commodity prices, particularly in precious metals, is expected to drive the performance of the non-ferrous sector, which is a significant weight in the market index, while rising oil prices may activate related sectors [2] - The market has entered an acceleration phase since December 17, indicating a potential for significant returns, but also suggesting that the current rebound is in its later stages, with a risk of a notable correction if upward momentum weakens [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rebound of the stock index futures market needs to be observed for its sustainability. The stock market rebounded on Wednesday, but there are uncertainties in the late - December trend, and it is recommended to deal with it with high - dividend and price - rising chains [1][7]. - The short - term amplitude of stock index options has increased, and the mid - term situation still needs to be observed. It is recommended to choose protective puts for short - term defense [2][7]. - The sentiment in the bond market has improved. The capital side is expected to continue to support the bond market sentiment, but caution is still needed for the ultra - long - term [3][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were - 1.68 points, - 4.48 points, 8.97 points, and 6.26 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 3.52 points, - 1.09 points, 0.08 points, and - 1.12 points. The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 21.0 points, 6.2 points, 9.0 points, and 67.0 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 1.6 points, 0.4 points, - 11.8 points, and - 4.6 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 628 lots, - 1896 lots, 2748 lots, and - 9704 lots [7]. - The stock market rebounded on Wednesday, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 leading the gains, both rising more than 2%. The TMT and new energy vehicle chains were active, and the market volume rose to 1.83 trillion. The number of limit - up stocks was 57, and the number of limit - down stocks was 25. The relatively small number of limit - up stocks indicated a general rise in the market. ETFs saw significant volume in the afternoon, which may have a positive impact on market sentiment. However, there are uncertainties in the late - December trend, and it is recommended to hold IC and the dividend index [1][7]. Stock Index Options - The total turnover of the options market exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time in nearly a month. Due to the market rebound, the proportion of intraday call option trading volume increased, the PCR of open interest rebounded, and the ratio PCR decreased significantly. The indicators basically returned to the level of two days ago, showing a volatile sentiment. The volatility of each variety has increased compared to two days ago, but the overall level is still at a relatively low level since July. It is recommended to choose protective puts for short - term defense [2][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume and open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts changed. The spreads between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - variety spreads, and basis also changed. The central bank carried out 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 189.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day [7][8]. - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.06%, 0.01%, and 0.63% respectively. The bond market sentiment improved, and the interest rates of all maturities decreased, with the ultra - long - term decreasing relatively more. The capital side was relatively loose, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy increased, which supported the long - position sentiment in the bond market. The ultra - long - term may have an oversold rebound. It is recommended to adopt a volatile trend strategy, pay attention to short - position hedging at low basis levels, appropriately pay attention to the widening of the basis, and expect the yield curve to remain steep [3][9][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On December 15, 2025, China's reserve currency in November was 3.8019683 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 3.7780993 trillion yuan [12]. - On December 16, 2025, the seasonally - adjusted change in non - farm payrolls in the US in November was 64,000, compared with the previous value of - 105,000 and the forecast value of 50,000 [12]. - On December 18, 2025, the seasonally - adjusted year - on - year core CPI in the US in November was not announced yet, with the previous value of 3%. On December 19, 2025, the year - on - year PCE price index in the US in November was not announced yet, with the previous value of 2.79% [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Domestic macro: On December 17, the central bank carried out 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan. In the first 11 months, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Sichuan increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.5% year - on - year. In Shaanxi, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.5% year - on - year. In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Henan increased by 8.0% year - on - year [13]. - Non - ferrous metals: On December 15, the inventories of zinc, lead, tin, and copper reached new highs in several months, with significant increases in changes. The inventories of nickel and aluminum decreased, and the inventories of aluminum alloy and cobalt remained stable at low levels [14]. - Energy and chemical industry: The 2026 regulatory work meeting of the National Energy Administration was held in Beijing. It was required to strengthen energy supervision law enforcement and ensure the safety of the energy and power system [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific data summaries were provided in the given text for this part.

观点简述： 上周市场延续技术反弹，沪深300指数周涨幅1.28%，上证综指周涨幅0.37%，中证500指数周涨 幅0.94%。市场多数个股上周实际连续4个交易日调整，直至周五在非银板块两大政策利好下出现盘中 拉升。 《 密切观察增量资金持续性 》 申明： 因合规考虑，自2025年4月21日后，暂停更新展示历史观点回溯模拟净值图。 本文表述观点，仅代表作者发稿当时的个人想法与思考笔记，仅供读者参考而不作为任何投资 建议。作者保留根据市场环境、新信息等适度修正观点的权利。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现，2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至12月7日累计收益 11.85%。 1 本周观点 | 标的 | 仓位 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 低仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 低仓位 | | 风格判断 | 主板占优 | 每周思考总第657期 基本面上，美国经济结构分化延续。 国内方面，关于证券与保险资管的行业松绑预期在上周五 因相关发言突然抬升预期，但从经济基本面及债市表现方面并未看到流动性边际显著改善迹象，建议 密切观察后续增量资金行为再定性利好幅度，维持谨慎观察；海外 ...

The major indexes were already up on the day, but their gains accelerated after both the headline and core personal consumption expenditures price indexes for September matched expectations for a 2.8% annual increase. The headline PCE rose 0.3% from August, which was above expectations at 0.2%, while the core PCE matched expectations with a 0.2% monthly uptick. ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.06%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.4%, and ChiNext Index up by 1.01% [6] - Total trading volume across both markets was 1.55 trillion yuan, a decrease of 121 billion yuan compared to the previous day [6] Fund Performance - The three major ETFs from Huabao, tracking the CSI A50, CSI A100, and CSI A500 indices, provided investors with diversified options for bullish positions on China [2][6] - The CSI A100 ETF fund was launched on August 1, 2022, while the CSI A500 ETF from Huabao was launched on December 2, 2024 [2] Institutional Insights - Everbright Securities noted that despite market adjustments, there is no panic, and the current fluctuations are considered normal, with potential for a rebound if favorable news emerges from upcoming significant meetings [2][6] - Wanhe Securities suggested that the market rebound may continue, particularly in the consumer and technology sectors, focusing on integrated circuits and commercial aerospace [2][6] - According to招商证券, the market is likely to break upward after three months of consolidation, indicating a high probability of a year-end rally [2][6] Sector Capital Inflows - The top three sectors for net capital inflows were household appliances (+2.784 billion yuan), machinery (+2.456 billion yuan), and automobiles [6]

Let's uh get into uh our next segment here. We're going to bring in Joe Mazola, head trading and derivative strategist here at Charles Schwab. Joe, I wanted to get your uh impact here of markets.We've seen we're on a five session win streak if we can close positive today. Pretty healthy snapback rally. I mean, are you a believer in this or uh should we just kind of ignore that volatility that we saw earlier in the month and hey, it seems like it's just risk on trading again.>> Uh can it be both, right. Can ...

从外部环境来看，昨晚外围市场表现强劲，美股强势反弹，大宗商品普遍上涨，A50 也出现上涨，特别 是中概念股涨幅接近 3%，这些外部因素都有助于推动市场反攻。此外，央行释放更多流动性以及美联 储降息预期升温，也为市场带来一定信心。 其次，美联储降息预期升温。美联储理事沃勒强调支持 12 月降息，但后续降息路径将逐次会议决定。 从全球市场角度看，降息预期的升温无疑是个好消息，但目前降息尚未确定，后续仍需持续关注其变 化。不过，这至少为全球市场带来短期利好。 在分析完消息面后，我们聚焦于今天市场的走势。我认为今天市场仍有反弹机会，至少盘中会上冲。然 而，市场能否延续反弹的关键在于两个方面：一是市场能否放量，成交量需放大至超过 2000 亿元；二 是权重板块必须发力，否则反弹难以持久。 昨晚央行采取了重大举措，同时外围市场集体上涨，概念股也迎来大爆发。在这样的背景下，今天市场 将如何演绎，能否延续反弹态势呢？我们先从消息面入手分析。 首先，央行决定开展 1 万亿元的中期借贷便利操作。这一举措表明央行仍在向经济和市场注入更多资金 活水。尽管近期有 9000 亿元资金即将到期，但总体而言，这一消息仍为市场释放了更多流动性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets experienced a significant sell-off of risk assets, with the A-share market also declining sharply, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards defensive sectors [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.90%, the Shenzhen Component dropped by 5.13%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 6.15%, all reaching new lows [1] - Over 5,000 stocks declined, with nearly 100 hitting the daily limit down, reflecting extreme market pessimism [1] - Defensive sectors such as shipbuilding, cultural media, and agriculture showed resilience, while previously popular sectors like energy metals, batteries, and photovoltaic equipment faced significant losses [1] Global Market Context - The Hang Seng Index fell by 5.09%, the S&P 500 dropped by 1.95%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.74%, influenced by cooling expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and instability in the U.S. AI narrative [1] - Federal Reserve officials began to signal dovish stances, with New York Fed President Williams stating there is still room for rate cuts, potentially alleviating liquidity concerns [1] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating significant short-term overselling [2] - Following the panic selling, some institutional funds are starting to position themselves against the trend, increasing the likelihood of a technical and emotional market recovery [2] Key Factors to Watch - Upcoming U.S. economic data, including September retail sales and PPI, could influence market sentiment, especially if they underperform, potentially reinforcing expectations for a December rate cut [3] - International events such as the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan and the UK's autumn budget may also impact market emotions [4] Sector Opportunities - Performance certainty will remain a core theme, with technology sectors like AI applications, robotics, and storage chips showing potential for recovery due to their recent declines and technological advancements [4] - Low-valuation, high-dividend sectors like banks and utilities are suitable for risk-averse investors [4] Investment Strategy - Prioritize high-quality stocks with solid performance and significant pullbacks while avoiding speculative stocks [5] - Continuous monitoring of Federal Reserve policy and global economic data is crucial, as these will be key variables determining market direction [6] Market Signals - A successful market rebound, even if limited, would indicate the market's self-repair mechanism is functioning, suggesting underlying resilience [6] - Conversely, a failure to rebound would signal that market confidence is still fragile and that a trend reversal is not yet imminent [6][7] Observational Approach - Investors should remain vigilant, recognizing that the market may still be searching for a true bottom, requiring patience and careful observation [7] - Quality rebounds should be accompanied by increasing trading volume and orderly rotation of market hotspots, while weak performance may indicate deeper adjustment pressures [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on November 19, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.18% to close at 3946.74 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index slightly declined to 13080.09 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.25% to 3076.85 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 172.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.02 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Despite the overall index closing in the green, a significant number of stocks declined, with 4175 stocks falling and only 1200 stocks rising, indicating a challenging environment for most investors [1] Group 2: Foreign Investment Sentiment - Foreign institutional investors are increasingly optimistic about Chinese assets, with several major firms expressing a positive outlook for Chinese stocks by 2026 [2] - Data shows a significant increase in the number of Chinese assets held by major financial institutions like Bank of America, UBS, and Morgan Stanley as of the end of Q3 compared to the end of Q2 [2] Group 3: Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well on November 19 included water products and military trade concepts, driven by recent developments related to Japan [2] - The insurance, oil, and non-ferrous metals sectors supported the market's rebound, indicating a potential stabilization after a series of declines [2] Group 4: Company Highlights - Hengguang Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of sulfur and chlorine chemical products, with a leading position in sodium chlorate production in China. The company reported a net profit of -1.655 million yuan for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 96.92% [3] - Yaguang Technology focuses on military electronics and smart boats, reporting a net profit of -98.88 million yuan for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 20.42%. The company secured a 37% increase in new military electronics orders in the first half of the year [3]

Group 1 - The recent market decline is viewed as a concentrated washout rather than a signal of the end of a bull market, with over 4,500 stocks closing lower [1] - The drop was influenced by external factors, including risk events in some US banks, which triggered global panic and led to passive declines in A-shares [1] - The trading structure was affected by the expiration of stock index futures, which allowed short sellers to exert downward pressure, creating a chain reaction of declines [1] Group 2 - Positive signals outweigh short-term negatives, with the central bank planning to facilitate foreign institutional investment, and a global trend towards looser monetary policy due to the Fed's slowing rate hike expectations [3] - Domestic chip manufacturers are poised to capture market share as Nvidia's high-end product presence in China diminishes, presenting an opportunity for local firms [3] - The clean energy sector is receiving policy support, particularly in offshore wind power, which enhances profit margins for companies in this space [3] Group 3 - Companies like Cambricon, despite a quarterly decline, have high order and advance payment levels, indicating secured future deliveries, suggesting that short-term financial fluctuations may not reflect fundamental issues [3] - Resource sectors may face short-term pressure due to significant declines in gold and silver prices, leading to a potential shift in funds towards growth and policy-benefiting sectors [3] - The negative sentiment from external markets is quickly dissipating, with major US indices and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index showing signs of recovery, which sets a positive emotional foundation for A-shares [3] Group 4 - The market is expected to experience a tentative downward test initially, followed by a gradual rise, with technology and high-end manufacturing likely to lead the gains [4] - The brokerage sector may also see a rebound once market stability is restored, indicating potential for recovery in this area [4] - Investors are advised to differentiate between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends, focusing on sectors supported by policies and industrial logic rather than reacting emotionally to market lows [4]