Core Viewpoint - Sinotrans Ltd. is expected to see a 6% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2Q25, reaching Rmb1.21 billion, primarily due to a one-time profit boost from warehouse REITs issuance [1] Financial Performance - The freight forwarding business is anticipated to face pressure in 2Q25 due to trade tariffs, with DHL-Sinotrans likely experiencing a further decline in profits due to the repeal of the "de minimis" exemption by the US [2][3] - The REITs issuance is projected to provide a one-time profit boost of approximately Rmb380 million [3] - Interim dividends are expected to remain stable at Rmb0.145 per share, with the potential for a 17% increase in full-year dividends if the company adopts a 50% payout ratio based on boosted profits from the disposal of Loscam equity [4] Market Trends - A series of tariff hikes between China and the US in April and the elimination of the "de minimis" exemption on May 2 are expected to impact the company's freight forwarding business [2] - The appreciation of the Euro against the RMB by approximately 7.2% in 2Q25 may exacerbate cost pressures for DHL-Sinotrans [3] Valuation and Ratings - The company maintains its earnings forecasts for 2025-2026, estimating net profits of Rmb3.56 billion and Rmb3.70 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of -9.2% and +4.0% respectively [5] - A-shares and H-shares are currently trading at 11.0x and 8.1x 2025 P/E [5] - The target price for A-shares remains at Rmb5.80, implying a 2025 P/E of 11.9x and an upside of 8.2%, while H-shares maintain a target price of HK$4.75, implying a 2025 P/E of 9.1x and a 12.3% upside [6]

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Core Insights - The 19th Global Freight Forwarders Conference hosted by JCtrans in Dubai gathered 1,237 logistics professionals and 752 enterprises from 74 countries, marking a significant milestone for the global freight forwarding industry [1] - The Middle Eastern logistics market is valued at $27.8 billion and is projected to grow to $39.2 billion in five years, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.1% [2] Company Developments - JCtrans serves over 11,000 paid members across 179 countries, with an annual renewal rate of 86% and facilitates over 2.2 million business matches annually through its AI-powered inquiry system [4] - The upgraded risk management system helped members avoid over 2,200 potential risks and recover approximately $185 million in claims [5] - JC Pay, a new settlement solution, has facilitated over $400 million in annual settlements, saving members millions in banking fees [6] Future Initiatives - JCtrans is planning upcoming conferences in Shanghai and Thailand, and will participate in the India International Cargo Show [8] - The company is set to launch JC Verified, a business capability certification service to enhance trust and collaboration [6] Networking and Collaboration - One-on-one business meetings at the conference facilitated initial cooperation agreements among participants, improving engagement efficiency [9] - Networking events, including a welcome cocktail reception and gala dinner, strengthened partnerships and fostered long-term cooperation [10] Industry Impact - The success of the Dubai Conference highlights JCtrans's leadership in the logistics sector and its commitment to building a collaborative logistics community [11]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for FedEx Corp., United Parcel Service Inc., and Eagle Materials Inc., while C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. is rated as "Neutral" [90]. Core Insights - The report highlights a sequential drop of 6% in laden vessels from China to the US, marking the second consecutive week of decline after a surge [1][5]. - Container rates are under significant pressure, with a recent sequential drop of 24% and a year-over-year decline of 71% [5][36]. - The report outlines two potential scenarios for trade dynamics in 2025, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts and inventory management [6][7]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Freight Flows - High-frequency data is utilized to assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains, with a focus on freight flows from China to the US [2][3]. - The report notes that laden container vessels from China to the US experienced a year-over-year decline of 1% and a sequential drop of 6% [21][13]. Trade Scenarios and Economic Outlook - The report discusses two broad scenarios for 2025: a potential pull-forward surge ahead of a 90-day tariff pause or a slowdown in activity due to uncertainty [6][7]. - The likelihood of a recession has decreased, with Goldman Sachs economists lowering their recession forecast to 30% and increasing GDP outlook for Q4 to 1.3% [11]. Container and TEU Trends - TEUs from China to the US saw a year-over-year decline of 2% and a sequential decrease of 5% [21][25]. - The report indicates that intermodal traffic on the West Coast rose by 5% year-over-year, suggesting a recovery in logistics following previous negative trends [47]. Shipping Rates and Market Dynamics - Ocean container rates from China to the US West Coast have seen a significant decline, reflecting the volatility in shipping demand [36][39]. - Planned TEUs into the Port of Los Angeles are expected to fluctuate, with a recent decrease of 11% sequentially, followed by anticipated increases [41][39]. Inventory and Supply Chain Insights - The Logistics Managers Index indicates upstream inventory expansion while downstream inventories have compressed, reflecting differing trends in B2B and B2C sectors [70][72]. - The report estimates significant fluctuations in trade values, with potential increases in imports observed in June compared to previous months [67][68].

23 June 2025 | 5:00AM EDT Americas Transportation: US Tariff Impact Tracker - High Frequency Trends Potentially Reveal Ebbing in China Surge US Tariff Impact Tracker – The directional uptick in inbound traffic from China to the US ebbed last week and in fact showed slight sequential downticks of -7% for vessels and -4% for TEU's, perhaps indicative that the China surge may be somewhat abbreviated or have less depth than some may have previously thought. That said, based on other data it is possible another ...

Alex Irving, CFA +44 207 676 7044 alex.irving@bernsteinsg.com For the exclusive use of JATIN CHAWLA at TVF CAPITAL ADVISORS PTE LTD on 19-Jun-2025 19 June 2025 Global Logistics Supply Chain Pulse Check: The pull forward David Vernon +1 917 344 8333 david.vernon@bernsteinsg.com Antoine Madre +33 1 58 98 74 52 antoine.madre@bernsteinsg.com Justine Weiss +1 917 344 8433 justine.weiss@bernsteinsg.com The trade policy landscape is marked by significant instability: agreements close to being signed but all of a s ...

9 June 2025 | 4:57AM EDT n China freight flows (week ending Thursday, June 5) finally showed a sequential uptick in laden vessels from China to the US (+9%), with still steep but a bit less of a YOY decline (-25% vs -31%). The YOY declines, however, still show that if the consumer remains resilient – we would likely need more goods at some point in 2H25. o Port Optimizer sequentials tend to support the notion that China should continue to show sequential upticks in aggregate over the next two weeks as the e ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The report indicates a potential surge in freight volumes from China to the US, driven by expected increases in imports at the Port of Los Angeles, with vessel traffic projected to rise by 6% and TEUs by 39% in the coming weeks [3][4][5] - Trade uncertainty remains high due to recent court involvement over tariffs, which could impact inflation, consumer spending, and global freight flows [2][7] - The report outlines three potential scenarios for trade dynamics in 2025, with a focus on the implications of a 90-day tariff pause with China [10][11][12] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Freight Trends - The report tracks high-frequency data to assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains, noting that while there has been a recent decline in freight volumes from China, a rebound is anticipated [5][6][14] - Container rates have shown volatility, with a recent uptick followed by flattening, indicating potential shifts in demand and supply dynamics [15][38] Trade Volume Analysis - Year-over-year (YoY) comparisons show a significant drop in laden container vessels from China to the US, with a decrease of 37% YoY and TEUs down by 34% YoY [22][14] - The report estimates that April saw an increase of approximately $4 billion in imports compared to the previous year, while May experienced a decline of about $3 billion [4][61] Future Scenarios and Economic Implications - The report presents two broad scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge in activity or a continued slowdown due to uncertainty, impacting inventory levels and freight demand [7][11] - Potential outcomes include a strong second half of 2025 if consumer demand rebounds or a bear case scenario if economic conditions worsen [12][15] Company-Specific Insights - Companies such as FedEx, UPS, and freight forwarders like Expeditors International and C.H. Robinson are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of increased freight activity during periods of volatility [15][85] - The report notes that intermodal traffic has declined by 5% YoY, reflecting ongoing challenges in the transportation sector [47][15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Buy" for Mainfreight with a price target of NZ$82.00 based on current market conditions [10][28]. Core Insights - Mainfreight's FY25 results slightly exceeded UBS estimates and market consensus, primarily driven by performance in Australia, although the outlook is mixed due to tariff impacts [2][7]. - The company reported revenue of $5.24 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, and underlying EBITDAR of $792 million, a 6% increase year-over-year [3][4]. - Underlying NPAT decreased by 1% year-over-year to $274 million, which was still above UBS estimates and market consensus [3][4]. Financial Performance - Key financial metrics include: - Revenue: $5.24 billion (+11% YoY) vs. UBS estimate of $5.10 billion - Underlying EBITDAR: $792 million (+6% YoY) vs. UBS estimate of $737 million - Underlying NPAT: $274 million (-1% YoY) vs. UBS estimate of $267 million [3][4]. - The company experienced mixed performance across regions, with notable declines in the US and Asia, while Australia showed strong growth [4][7]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a 12-month price target of NZ$82, derived from an average of P/E (26x) and DCF valuations [5][10]. - The current market cap is NZ$6.70 billion (approximately US$4.00 billion) with a free cash flow of $163 million [10][3]. Guidance and Outlook - No specific guidance was provided, but trading in April and May was described as "disappointing" due to short trading weeks and initial US tariff disruptions [6][7]. - The outlook for US operations indicates potential improvement in A&O and Warehousing earnings in FY26, despite current challenges [7][6]. Company Overview - Mainfreight, established in 1978, has evolved into a global freight forwarder with operations in 20 countries and a workforce of over 6,000 employees [13]. - Approximately 75% of its revenue is generated outside New Zealand, with a comprehensive service offering that includes domestic distribution, warehousing, and international freight services [13].

Summary of Freightos Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Freightos - **Industry**: Digital Freight Forwarding and Logistics - **Key Executives**: Svee Schreiber (CEO), Pablo Pinelos (CFO), Anna Aaron Halbrunn (IR) Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Position**: Freightos is a leader in digitizing the freight forwarding industry, which is still largely offline, with over a million digital bookings annually, representing a small portion of a multi-billion dollar industry [5][6][9] 2. **Growth Metrics**: The number of transactions has grown 3.5 times over the last three years, indicating rapid growth in the marketplace [7][41] 3. **Marketplace Structure**: Freightos operates a three-sided marketplace involving carriers, freight forwarders, and importers/exporters, which enhances network effects and growth dynamics [8][41] 4. **Financial Performance**: Revenue has been consistently growing, with a non-IFRS margin currently at 74%, aiming for 80% [9][10][50] 5. **Investment Strategy**: The company is intentionally not break-even yet, as it prioritizes investment in marketing and R&D to capture market opportunities [10][12] 6. **Cash Position**: Freightos has over $30 million in cash, sufficient to reach profitability without needing to raise additional capital in the near term [11][62] 7. **Revenue Segmentation**: Revenue is divided into two segments: platform revenue (transactional) and solutions revenue (subscription-based), with the expectation that platform revenue will grow faster [48][49] 8. **Tariff Impact**: While tariffs can create short-term headwinds, the overall trend of world trade remains positive, and the company is positioned to benefit from increased marketplace usage during volatility [35][36][38] Additional Important Insights 1. **Industry Dynamics**: The freight forwarding industry is characterized by a high number of manual processes and intermediaries, presenting a significant opportunity for digital transformation [23][24] 2. **Comparison with Competitors**: Freightos differentiates itself from competitors like Flexport by being a neutral platform rather than a freight forwarder, allowing for higher margins and a broader market reach [70] 3. **Long-term Growth Potential**: The company believes it can grow significantly regardless of fluctuations in global trade, as it has only digitized a small percentage of the market [67][68] 4. **Market Trends**: The shift towards digital platforms in B2B commerce is seen as a major trend, with Freightos aiming to be a leader in this space [27][28] Conclusion Freightos is positioned as a leading digital platform in the freight forwarding industry, with strong growth metrics, a solid financial foundation, and a clear strategy for future expansion. The company is focused on leveraging its marketplace structure to capitalize on the ongoing digital transformation in logistics.