December 15, 2025 07:01 AM GMT Capital Goods | Europe A Halftime Report on Liquid Cooling: Growth running hot, but rising new entrants. Prefer end-to-end players. M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Claire Liu Equity Analyst Claire.K.Liu@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-7649 Max R Yates Equity Analyst Max.Yates@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1917 Capital Goods Europe Industry View In-Line Key Takeaways We published our deep-dive report in data center liquid cooling in September, 2024. A year later, w ...

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Summary of Conference Call on AI Infrastructure and Related Industries Industry Overview AI Data Center (AIDC) - China's AIDC market experienced a significant surge in the second half of 2025, driven by rapid AI adoption and advancements in domestic chip technology [1][7] - ByteDance's token usage increased dramatically from 4 trillion in February to 30 trillion in September 2025 [1][7] - AIDC investments are primarily led by cloud vendors, telecom operators, and third-party firms, with construction costs ranging from RMB 17,000 to 23,000 per kW [1][8][9] - Major players like ByteDance, Tencent, and Huawei are actively pursuing new data center projects, including a notable 800MW park for ByteDance [1][10] Liquid Cooling - Liquid cooling technology in China has low adoption rates, remaining below 10% in 2025, compared to over 3,000 units deployed overseas [2][14] - The market for liquid cooling is projected to grow at a 64% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with penetration expected to rise from 10% in 2025 to 45% by 2030 [2] - Cold plate systems dominate the liquid cooling market with a 90% share, while immersion cooling faces high costs and lacks standardization [2][15] - Domestic competition is intense, leading to significant price gaps; CDU pricing ranges from US$10 to 230 per kW [2][16] Optical Fiber - China accounts for approximately 50% of global fiber demand, with projections of 260 million fiber-km domestically and 568 million globally by 2025 [3][19] - The optical cable market is expected to grow at a 5% CAGR, with a shift towards high-end products like G654E fiber and hollow-core fiber [3][20] - Profitability in the optical fiber market is concentrated upstream, with preforms contributing 70% of profits, fiber 20%, and cables only 10% [3][22] - Intense domestic competition has led to price reductions, making it challenging for smaller players to survive [3][21] Key Insights AIDC Developments - The AIDC market is rebounding due to broader AI applications across various sectors, including manufacturing and healthcare [7] - Domestic chips are being commercially deployed, although they still lag behind NVIDIA's technology [7] - The construction of training clusters in western China is part of the "Eastern Data, Western Computing" strategy [8] Liquid Cooling Market Dynamics - The domestic AI market is in an early stage of rapid growth, with server memory prices tripling [13] - Liquid cooling systems are becoming critical components of the data center value chain, with export opportunities emerging [11][18] - Future growth in liquid cooling will depend on cost reductions and advancements in microchannel technology [2][18] Optical Fiber Market Trends - The demand for fiber optic communication is projected to reach nearly 170 million fiber-kilometers in 2025 [19] - Export opportunities are concentrated in Southeast Asia, while Europe and North America present challenges due to trade barriers [20] - Emerging technologies like hollow-core fiber and multi-core fiber are expected to enhance competitiveness in the market [21] Conclusion - The AIDC, liquid cooling, and optical fiber industries are poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for AI applications. However, challenges such as intense competition and reliance on imported components may impact profitability and market dynamics in the near future.

Core Insights - nVent Electric plc has introduced new modular liquid cooling solutions aimed at meeting the cooling requirements of next-generation AI chips, showcasing these innovations at SC25 [1][3][12] - The company is collaborating with Siemens to develop a liquid cooling and power reference architecture tailored for hyperscale AI workloads [8] Product Offerings - The new product portfolio includes modular and scalable row-based coolant distribution units (CDUs), next-generation power distribution units (PDUs), and advanced technology cooling system manifolds [3][4] - nVent's CDUs and PDUs feature a common control platform designed to enhance reliability and improve user experience for data center operators [3] Industry Collaboration - nVent is participating in Project Deschutes, exhibiting a new CDU design based on Google's specifications, which aims to accelerate the adoption of liquid cooling in data centers [9] - The company is leveraging its extensive experience and technical expertise to address unique challenges faced by customers in the data center industry [2][7] Educational Initiatives - nVent will host "Tech Talks" at SC25 to provide insights into new products and address critical industry questions, supporting data center managers in deploying the latest AI technology [11] - Industry experts from nVent, NVIDIA, Lenovo, HPE, and AMD will participate in a panel discussion on the evolution of liquid cooling technology [10] Marketing Campaign - nVent is launching a new marketing campaign titled "We Do Cool Stuff" to highlight its leadership and innovation in the data center industry [12][13]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Asian Technology** sector, specifically the **datacenter power**, **liquid cooling**, and **ODM rack build** related to AI server technology [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Server Demand and Shipments**: - Forecast for 2025 indicates approximately **38,000 NVL72 racks** in demand, with **10,000-11,000** in order backlog. For 2026, demand is expected to rise to **50,000-60,000 NVL72 racks** [4][10]. - The anticipated **double YoY growth** in shipments suggests strong revenue potential for AI server ODMs and component vendors [4]. - **GB300/VR200 Server Updates**: - The ramp-up for **GB300 servers** is slower than expected, with a more significant increase anticipated in **1Q26**. The **VR200 modules** are expected to ramp in **2Q26**, with delays likely due to ongoing discussions on specifications [4]. - Key specification changes for the VR200 include increased power consumption and enhanced cooling solutions, which will impact the overall design and manufacturing landscape [4]. - **Power Supply Unit (PSU) Market Growth**: - The global datacenter power installed base is projected to grow from **117 GW in 2025 to 242 GW in 2028**, representing a **27% CAGR** [5]. - The server PSU total addressable market (TAM) is expected to grow at a **64% CAGR** during the same period, benefiting companies like **Delta Electronics** [5]. - **Liquid Cooling Market Expansion**: - The sidecar/CDU TAM is projected to grow from **$6 billion in 2025 to $21 billion by 2028**, indicating a **54% CAGR** driven by increased AI server power consumption [5]. - Companies like **Delta** are positioned to benefit from this trend, with expected revenue growth of **36% CAGR** in liquid cooling systems from 2025 to 2027 [5]. - **Competitive Landscape**: - The potential shift towards standardized compute trays by Nvidia could lead to a more concentrated competitive landscape among NVL72 L10 server ODMs [4]. - Rising competition in the MCP market is anticipated as Nvidia may adopt a "consign" model, limiting customization and increasing competition among suppliers [5]. Additional Important Insights - **Stock Implications**: - J.P. Morgan has an **Overweight (OW)** rating on companies like **Wiwynn**, **Hon Hai**, and **Quanta** in the Taiwan ODM space, as well as **Delta** and **Chroma** in the datacenter power sector [6]. - In the liquid cooling space, **Jentech** and **Fositek** are identified as major beneficiaries from content growth [6]. - **Technological Advancements**: - The report highlights the importance of adopting advanced cooling solutions and power supply architectures to enhance efficiency and reduce power conversion losses in future AI datacenters [5]. - **Market Dynamics**: - The report indicates a potential market share shift from traditional server brands to server ODMs, reflecting changing dynamics in the datacenter hardware landscape [4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the datacenter power and liquid cooling industry, emphasizing the growth potential driven by AI server demand and technological advancements.

Group 1 - Eaton Corporation plc (NYSE:ETN) announced a $9.5 billion acquisition of Boyd Corporation's thermal business, enhancing its position in the liquid cooling industry for data centers [2] - Jim Cramer highlighted the significance of liquid cooling for the next generation of data centers and praised Eaton as a "well run" company [2] - Cramer emphasized the importance of timing when purchasing Eaton's shares, indicating a strategic approach to investment [2][3] Group 2 - Cramer previously recommended buying Eaton's shares, expressing disbelief over the stock's performance despite a decent quarterly report [3] - The article suggests that while Eaton has potential, other AI stocks may offer higher returns with limited downside risk [3]

Financial Performance - Eaton reported record adjusted earnings per share of $3.07 in Q3 2025, an increase of 8% compared to Q3 2024[5] - The company's segment margins reached a quarterly record of 25.0%, up 70 bps from Q3 2024[5] - Sales for Q3 2025 were $6.988 billion, a 10% increase over Q3 2024, with organic growth contributing 7%[28] - Eaton reaffirms its 2025 full-year adjusted earnings per share outlook of $11.97 to $12.17 and organic growth of 8.5% to 9.5%[6, 40] Acquisition and Market Growth - Eaton signed an agreement to acquire Boyd Thermal, a leader in liquid cooling solutions, with estimated 2026 sales of $1.7 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25%[6, 10] - The data center liquid cooling market is projected to grow at approximately 35% annually through 2028, reaching over $6 billion[12] Segment Performance - Electrical Americas segment sales increased by 15% to $3.410 billion in Q3 2025, with organic growth of 9%[29, 31] - Aerospace segment sales increased by 14% to $1.079 billion in Q3 2025, with organic growth of 13%[33] - Vehicle segment sales decreased by 8% to $639 million in Q3 2025, with organic decline of 9%[34, 35] - eMobility segment sales decreased by 19% to $136 million in Q3 2025, with organic decline of 20%[36]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Liquid Cooling Market Industry Overview - The discussion focused on the **liquid cooling industry**, particularly in the context of **AI technology** and its applications in data centers and computing power management [1][3]. Core Insights - **Full Liquid Cooling Adoption**: The trend towards full liquid cooling systems is increasing, with NVIDIA's GB300 model fully adopting this technology, while previous models like GB200 still partially relied on air cooling [3]. - **Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)**: Major CSPs such as Google, Amazon AWS, and Meta are considering full liquid cooling solutions due to the rising computational demands of ASICs. Full liquid cooling systems are noted for their long lifecycles in AI data centers [3]. - **Technological Innovations**: - NVIDIA's Microchannel Liquid Cooling Plate (MLCP) and Microsoft's in-chip Microfluidic cooling system are highlighted as significant advancements in cooling technology [1][2]. - MLCP utilizes micro channels for liquid coolant flow, directly attached to computing chips, presenting high entry barriers due to the complexity of smaller channel sizes [3]. - The Microfluidic solution is more advanced, requiring IC-level production processes, which necessitates collaboration with leading foundries [3]. - **Market Dynamics**: The expert indicated that MLCP may see earlier adoption compared to the Microfluidic solution due to existing technological challenges [2][3]. Additional Important Points - **Installation and Maintenance**: The modularized Coolant Distribution Unit (CDU) is easier to install and maintain, which is a significant advantage for CSPs [3]. - **Competitive Landscape**: The competitive dynamics in the liquid cooling market are evolving as more companies adopt these advanced cooling solutions to meet the demands of high-performance computing [1][3]. This summary encapsulates the key takeaways from the conference call regarding the liquid cooling market and its implications for the technology and AI sectors.

Core Insights - The liquid cooling sector has shown strong performance this year, driven by technological advancements, policy support, economic advantages, and industry leadership from major players [2][8] - The transition from traditional air cooling to liquid cooling is essential due to the increasing power density of AI computing, indicating a significant upgrade in cooling technology [2][8] - The market penetration of liquid cooling is expected to see a substantial increase from late 2025 to 2026 with the mass production of new models [2][8] Market Space and Competitive Structure - Air cooling currently dominates the server cooling technology market, accounting for over 80%, but liquid cooling penetration is rapidly increasing from single digits in 2023 [3][9] - The liquid cooling market for NVIDIA GPUs and cloud service provider ASIC chips is projected to reach approximately 100 billion by 2026 [3][9] - Liquid cooling solutions have a value per rack that is 5-15 times higher than traditional air cooling, with total rack values ranging from tens of thousands to 100,000 USD [3][9] - The leading companies in liquid cooling solutions and key components have a concentrated market share, primarily from the Taiwanese supply chain, but domestic companies are gaining traction [3][9] Future Outlook and Industry Trends - The liquid cooling sector is transitioning from an introduction phase to a high-growth phase, with significant potential and sustainability [4][10] - The industry is expected to see a near doubling of market penetration next year compared to this year, driven by the introduction of next-generation solutions [4][10] - Future investments should focus on companies that have established relationships with top clients, possess core technological advantages, and demonstrate consistent performance [4][10] - The industry's growth will require both internal cost reduction and external demand policy coordination [4][10]

Core Viewpoint - The computing power sector has experienced a significant surge, becoming one of the most attractive investment themes in the A-share market, particularly driven by AI chips, AI servers, optical modules, and liquid cooling technologies [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The computing power sector saw multiple stocks with market capitalizations exceeding 100 billion reach new highs, including Cambricon, Industrial Fulian, and leading optical module companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng [1]. - On August 13, the optical module index rose by 6.24%, while the copper industry index increased by 4.84%, indicating strong market interest in these sectors [2]. - Cambricon's stock price reached a peak of 868 CNY, closing at 860 CNY with a market cap of 359.8 billion CNY, reflecting investor enthusiasm despite rumors being denied [4]. Group 2: Key Drivers - Four main factors are driving the surge in the computing power sector: 1. Nvidia's potential easing of sales policies to China, which has injected confidence into the sector [7]. 2. Explosive growth in capital expenditures from North American cloud providers, with a total of 159.384 billion USD expected in the first half of 2025, a 24.4% year-on-year increase [8]. 3. The release of major AI models, such as OpenAI's GPT-5, which has significantly increased demand for computing power [8][9]. 4. Breakthroughs in the domestic computing power supply chain, with companies like Huawei and domestic liquid cooling firms achieving significant technological advancements [9]. Group 3: Sector Trends - The liquid cooling market is projected to exceed 200 billion CNY by 2025, with a current global market size surpassing 50 billion CNY, and China accounting for 35% of this market [6]. - The shift from air cooling to liquid cooling systems is becoming increasingly clear, driven by the need for efficient cooling solutions for high-power chips [6]. - Analysts predict substantial growth in earnings for several companies in the computing power hardware sector, with projected profit increases of up to 1479% for Huafeng Technology and 897% for Hailanxin [9].