2026.3.2本周早盘 1周末重要新闻 ①伊朗遇袭，美以轰炸伊朗在首都及周边地区，伊朗最高领袖及多位军方高层遇害。 伊朗方面对美以也有回击。 ②美军此次针对哈梅内伊的斩首行动，代号"沉默圣城"，仅出动1架MQ-9B"海上卫士"无人机、1支8人特种部队先 遣队，核心作战力量是Claude 3Opus大模型+Palantir Foundry国防平台的AI组合，以及接入CE 2026.3.2本周早盘 1周末重要新闻 ①伊朗遇袭，美以轰炸伊朗在首都及周边地区，伊朗最高领袖及多位军方高层遇害。 伊朗方面对美以也有回击。 2本周节奏 ①首先有色原油化工农产品等大宗肯定会高开，但受美元走强，战争持续周期不长的预期影响，很可能变成兑现 点位，在车上的可做t，没上车的最好不要追高。 摩根连续吹高黄金，高盛看空铜，有色的朋友可以适当减仓。 ②石油石化的板块，强的那些个标的，洲际油气，山东墨龙肯定一字板，前排买不到的别上后排，紧盯下国际期 货，最好开盘看获利盘兑现完再考虑是否上车etf。 ③小金属和化工这里则是独立逻辑，和需求端有关，和涨价线有关，不是主跟的避险逻辑，尤其是最近走的最强 的钨，其次是锗，镓，磷化铟等，化工材料可以 ...

天风通信｜海外算力大跌点评：错杀后的买入良机，基本面高景气无变化 事件：今天海外算力大跌，新易盛-7%源杰-6.6%旭创-6.4%胜宏-5.4%生益-5.4%沪电-3%。 。 。 我们分析如下： 1、昨晚美股大跌拖累，lite-6.4%cohr-6.6%Nvda-5.5%，但是人家是涨多后的正常回调。 。 。 我们分析如下： 1、昨晚美股大跌拖累，lite-6.4%cohr-6.6%Nvda-5.5%，但是人家是涨多后的正常回调。 2、可能受昨天新闻中国token消耗超过美国影响，但是这一方面说明中国应用做的好，另一方面也说明美国缺算力 啊！ 3、行业基本面没变化，需求持续的高增长供不应求，业绩好估值低不变。 因此我们认为，这是明显错杀，这是买入良机，仍然维持我们此前观点，3～6个月内看海外算力板块翻翻，比 如旭创看1.2～1.5万亿 天风通信｜海外算力大跌点评：错杀后的买入良机，基本面高景气无变化 事件：今天海外算力大跌，新易盛-7%源杰-6.6%旭创-6.4%胜宏-5.4%生益-5.4%沪电-3%。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Overseas computing power and optical module market - **Key Companies Mentioned**: 西部通信 (West Communication), 中际旭创 (Zhongji Xuchuang), 新易盛 (Xinyi Sheng), 英维克 (Yingweike), 福晶科技 (Fujing Technology) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Optical Module Market**: - Strong demand and material shortages expected in H1 2026, with leading companies showing supply chain advantages [1] - Market sentiment is improving as previous suppressive factors are alleviated, allowing funds to enter the market early [1] - Key price catalysts will emerge as industry guidance for 2027 becomes clearer, particularly after the OFC conference in March [1] - Performance in H1 2026 is anticipated to be the highest among leading optical module companies, with H2 2026 expected to see accelerated performance due to material supply easing [1] 2. **Liquid Cooling Solutions**: - 2026 is projected to be the first year of significant adoption for liquid cooling solutions, with major companies like NV, Meta, and Google leading the way [2] - Estimated value of liquid cooling solutions is approximately $1,400 per 1kW chip, translating to a market potential of $21 billion for 15 million chips [2] - Domestic leaders in liquid cooling for ASIC chips are expected to capture over 20% market share, with overseas orders potentially yielding double the profit margins compared to domestic [2] 3. **Price Increases in Communication Products**: - Recommendations to invest in core communication products due to ongoing price increases driven by supply constraints [2] - Significant supply reductions from global suppliers of Faraday rotators, with Japanese company Granopt reducing production and issuing supply cut notices [2] - Domestic manufacturers like 森一 (Senyi), 飞锐特 (Feiruite), and 福晶科技 (Fujing Technology) are positioned to increase their market share through domestic substitution [2] 4. **Self-Sufficiency in SGGG Crystals**: - 福晶科技 has achieved self-sufficiency in SGGG crystal materials, which is expected to alleviate expansion bottlenecks and significantly increase market share [3] 5. **Data Center Fiber Pricing**: - Continuous price increases for fiber cables noted since January, with expectations of rising demand and prices from domestic operators [3] - Fiber optic cable manufacturers are adopting "same-day valid" pricing due to volatility in raw material costs, leading to a cautious expansion approach [3] Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the overseas computing power sector is shifting positively, with early investments being made in anticipation of future growth [1][2] - The liquid cooling market is set for rapid growth, with significant opportunities for domestic companies to capture market share [2] - The supply chain dynamics in the optical module and communication product markets are critical, with potential for substantial price increases due to supply constraints [2][3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Overseas computing power and optical modules - **Key Companies Mentioned**: 西部通信 (West Communication), 中际旭创 (Inspur), 新易盛 (NewEase), 英维克 (Invec), 福晶科技 (Fujing Technology), 长飞光纤 (Changfei Fiber), 亨通光电 (Hengtong Optic), 中天科技 (ZTE Technology) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Optical Module Demand**: Strong demand and material shortages expected in H1 2026, with leading companies showcasing supply chain advantages. The release of previous performance forecast suppression is alleviating, and market pressures are easing, allowing funds to enter early in a strong industry trend [1] 2. **Future Catalysts**: Attention is shifting to clearer industry guidance for 2027, anticipated post the OFC conference in March, and new technology trends (NPO/CPO) that will promote scale-up scenarios. The short-term performance realization will depend on upstream supply chain material and capacity resolution [1] 3. **Liquid Cooling Solutions**: 2026 is projected to be the first year of significant liquid cooling adoption, with NV, Meta, and Google leading commercial applications. The estimated value of liquid cooling solutions for ASIC chips is substantial, with potential market size reaching $21 billion [2] 4. **Market Share Potential**: Domestic leaders in liquid cooling solutions for ASIC chips are expected to capture over 20% market share, with overseas orders potentially yielding double the profit margins compared to domestic ones [2] 5. **Price Increases in Key Components**: Recommendations include focusing on core price-increasing products in communication, particularly SGGG crystals and Faraday rotators. Global supply reductions are creating significant gaps, with domestic manufacturers poised to increase their market share [3] 6. **Data Center Fiber Pricing**: Continuous price increases for fiber optic cables are noted, with domestic operators expecting both volume and price increases. Manufacturers are adopting "same-day effective" pricing due to raw material price volatility, indicating a cautious expansion approach [3] Additional Important Insights - **Performance Realization Timing**: The performance realization for leading optical module companies is expected to be highest in H1 2026, with H2 2026 anticipated to see accelerated performance due to easing material supply [1] - **Investment Recommendations**: Strong buy recommendations for 中际旭创 and 新易盛 based on anticipated strong alpha in H1 2026, and 英维克 is expected to see significant acceleration in Q2 2026, with potential for valuation premium in 2027 [2] - **Domestic Production Capabilities**: 福晶科技 has achieved self-sufficiency in SGGG crystal materials, which could alleviate expansion bottlenecks and significantly enhance market share [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the focus of fund managers on semiconductor equipment and technology sectors, highlighting the performance of key fund managers and their investment strategies in these areas [4][20]. Fund Manager Performance - Fund managers Xie Zhiyu and Qiao Qian have significant management scales of 38.6 billion and 24 billion respectively, with annualized returns of 18% and 13.52% since their tenure began [4]. - Xie Zhiyu's fund, Xingquan Helun Mixed A, achieved a return of 35.7% in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 18 percentage points [4][5]. - Qiao Qian's fund, Xingquan Business Model Mixed A, recorded a return of 38.05% in 2025, with a net value growth exceeding 10% in early 2026 [5][6]. Investment Focus - Both fund managers are concentrating on technology sectors, particularly overseas computing power and semiconductor equipment [8][9]. - Xie Zhiyu maintains a high equity position, with 92.5% of the fund's net value in stocks by the end of the fourth quarter [11]. - Qiao Qian's fund also operates with a high equity position of 94.4% at the end of the fourth quarter [16]. Portfolio Adjustments - Xie Zhiyu's fund saw significant changes in its top holdings, with the introduction of storage testing and module leader Baiwei Storage, which is expected to see a net profit growth of 427%-520% in 2025 [12]. - New entries in the top ten holdings for Xie Zhiyu include semiconductor equipment stocks Tuo Jing Technology and Huahai Qingke, while North China Innovation, Lens Technology, and Focus Media exited the list [13]. - Qiao Qian's fund also adjusted its top holdings significantly, with six new entries, including Baiwei Storage and Huahai Qingke, while North China Innovation and Lens Technology were removed [17]. Overall Market Outlook - The two fund managers agree on the positive outlook for technology sectors, particularly semiconductor equipment, storage, and overseas computing power [20].

Group 1 - The premium rate of the silver fund has exceeded 50%, with the secondary market trading price significantly fluctuating compared to its net value [1] - Multiple broad-based ETFs have seen record trading volumes, with Southbound CSI 1000 ETF reaching a trading volume of 18.2 billion yuan, the highest since its listing in November 2016 [2] - Zhang Kun, a well-known fund manager, has reduced holdings in several liquor stocks while adjusting the structure of his funds in sectors like pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and technology [3] Group 2 - Fund manager Xie Zhiyu has focused on allocating investments in overseas computing power and semiconductor equipment, while maintaining positions in high-quality innovative drugs and internet assets [4] - The market experienced a rebound in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.14% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.5%, leading to a total trading volume of 2.69 trillion yuan [5] - The aerospace sector has shown significant growth, with nearly twenty component stocks hitting the daily limit, and several aerospace ETFs rising by approximately 4% [6] Group 3 - The airline industry is at a pivotal point, with unprecedented supply constraints and increasing passenger load factors, indicating a potential golden era for airlines [9]

Core Insights - The report highlights significant investments made by fund manager Xie Zhiyu in various technology sectors, particularly in overseas computing power and semiconductor equipment, indicating a strategic focus on high-growth areas for 2026 [1][2] Investment Strategy - The funds managed by Xie Zhiyu, namely Xingquan He Yi and Xingquan He Run, have newly increased their positions in companies such as Baiwei Storage, Huiliang Technology, and WuXi Biologics, while also increasing their holdings in CATL [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking core competitive trends in companies over a longer cycle to identify investment opportunities arising from technological transformations and sectoral rebounds [2] Sector Performance - The overseas computing power sector, particularly in optical modules, is experiencing record highs due to increased orders from major clients and advancements in new technologies [1] - Domestic supply chain leaders are gaining more influence on the international stage, especially in the optical module and PCB sectors, while also achieving breakthroughs in liquid cooling and power supply [1] - The AI-driven capital expenditure surge is creating challenges such as power shortages and storage deficits overseas, leading to heightened demand in domestic energy storage, gas turbines, and related industries [1] Company Holdings - The report lists significant stock holdings, including: - Zhongji Xuchuang: 2,035,762 shares valued at approximately 1.24 billion yuan - CATL: 2,330,228 shares valued at approximately 855.8 million yuan - Baiwei Storage: 5,872,779 shares valued at approximately 674.1 million yuan - Huiliang Technology: 35,830,178 shares valued at approximately 494.5 million yuan - WuXi Biologics: 13,464,500 shares valued at approximately 382.4 million yuan [3]

Core Insights - CES 2026 showcased significant advancements in AI and computing technology, with NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang announcing the production of the Vera Rubin system, set to launch in late 2026 [1] - The communication ETF (515880) has emerged as a top performer, with a remarkable annual increase of 125.81% in 2025, making it the largest in its category [2] Group 1: Industry Developments - NVIDIA introduced the new DGX SuperPOD based on the Rubin architecture, consisting of 8 Vera Rubin NVL72 racks, equating to 576 GPUs working in unison [1] - The slowdown of Moore's Law is evident, as the increase in transistor count cannot keep pace with the tenfold growth in model scale and fivefold increase in text generation volume annually [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The AI trend remains strong, with overseas computing power chains likely to sustain their growth, making the communication ETF (515880) a focal point for investors [2] - Cloud vendors are maintaining high capital expenditures, creating a sustainable ecosystem through the empowerment of traditional businesses, with growth rates expected to remain close to 50% in the short to medium term [2] Group 3: ETF Performance - As of December 22, 2025, the communication ETF (515880) had over 48% exposure to optical modules and nearly 20% to servers, with core components making up over 77% of its holdings, reflecting the underlying strength of overseas computing fundamentals [2] - The communication ETF is recommended for continued attention due to its performance and market position [2]

Group 1 - The communication ETF (515880) has increased over 128% year-to-date, ranking first in the market, with a net inflow of over 1.5 billion yuan in the last 10 days, and light modules accounting for nearly 50% of its composition [1] - Institutions indicate that the logic supporting overseas computing power is solid, with clear growth sustainability. Google's rise as a global AI giant, with its TPU and Gemini series models performing well, has no negative impact on A-share light modules and PCB sectors [1] - The demand for computing power is doubling every six months, driven by algorithm iterations and an increase in vendors, supporting the continued prosperity of the industry chain [1] Group 2 - As of December 15, the communication ETF has a light module content ratio exceeding 48% and server content over 20%, with core component ratios exceeding 76%, reflecting the fundamental strength of overseas computing power [1][2] - The communication ETF's scale is 14.517 billion yuan as of December 29, 2025, ranking first among 15 similar products [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's continuous rise last week was due to the phased repair of risk appetite driven by cyclical sectors. The main driving force of the market came from internal structural changes, with cyclical sectors led by non - ferrous metals driving the index up. The repair of risk appetite was also supported by the external environment such as the phased appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the marginal improvement of overseas liquidity expectations [5]. - The Spring Festival - before market still has upward space, and there are short - term opportunities for bottom - fishing. The main risk factors restricting the market have weakened, and risk appetite is expected to remain high. The market is in a stage of preparing for the Spring Festival - before market, and the short - term market is likely to rise gradually with internal structural adjustments [8]. - The technology theme is the most elastic main line in the Spring Festival market, focusing on sub - sectors such as robotics, commercial aerospace, and nuclear power. Overseas computing power and semiconductor - related sectors can be configured with a medium - term holding strategy. The non - banking financial sector has certain allocation value. In the consumer sector, it is more appropriate to grasp thematic trading opportunities, focusing on sports consumption, medical devices, and traditional Chinese medicine [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review - **Market Performance**: Most major market indices rose last week, with the ChiNext 50 having the largest increase of 4.07%. Among the major industry indices, the Materials Index and the Information Technology Index performed relatively well, with weekly increases of 5.85% and 4.36% respectively, while the Daily Consumption Index and the Telecommunication Services Index performed weakly, with decreases of - 0.65% and - 0.34% respectively. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries rose, with non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and power equipment having larger increases of 6.43%, 6.00%, and 5.37% respectively, and beauty care, social services, and banks having larger decreases of - 1.08%, - 1.05%, and - 1.01% respectively [9][14][17]. - **Trading Heat**: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 1,965.166 billion yuan (the previous value was 1,760.484 billion yuan), at a relatively high historical level (87.50% of the three - year historical quantile) [19]. - **Valuation Tracking**: As of December 26, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 22.27, an increase of 0.48 from the previous week, at the 94.00% quantile of the past five - year history. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) were repaired [24]. Market Observation - **Reasons for the Market Rise**: The continuous rise of the market last week was mainly due to the phased repair of risk appetite driven by cyclical sectors. There were no new direct positive factors from policies and news, and the driving force came from internal structural changes. The rise of the index was led by cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals, and the external environment also supported the repair of risk appetite [5]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on the technology theme, overseas computing power and semiconductor - related sectors, the non - banking financial sector, and thematic trading opportunities in the consumer sector, especially sports consumption, medical devices, and traditional Chinese medicine [7]. Economic Calendar - The report mentions to pay attention to global economic data, but specific data details are not provided [26].