第三，从目前的趋势看，2026年光模块较大概率维持供不应求，2027年后光入柜内、CPO等叙事或开始 演绎。 2025年ETF"涨幅王"通信ETF（515880）全年上涨125.81%居全市场第一，不仅涨幅可观，通信ETF （515880）的规模也是同类第一，截至2025年12月22日，通信ETF光模块含量占比超过48%，服务器含 量近20%，叠加光纤、铜连接等成分，核心环节成分占比超过77%，代表了海外算力的基本面底气，目 前仍是景气优选，建议持续关注。 消息面，CES 2026盛会开幕，英伟达掌门人黄仁勋发表讲话，亮点频出。黄仁勋表示，Vera Rubin 目前 正在生产中，首批搭载该系统的产品将于 2026 年下半年上市。ConnectX9 为每个 GPU 提供 1.6TB/s 的 横向扩展带宽（这意味着配套1.6T光模块）。宣布推出基于 Rubin 架构的新一代 DGX SuperPOD（超节 点），这次发布的版本由 8个 Vera Rubin NVL72 机架组成，相当于 576个 GPU 协同工作。摩尔定律已 大幅放缓，晶体管数量逐年增加的幅度，根本无法跟上模型规模每年10倍的增长速度，也无法应对 ...

注：数据来源：中证指数公司，wind，截至2025/12/29，通信ETF规模为145.17亿元，在同类15只 产品中排名第一。权重占比截至2025/12/15。指数成分股可能随指数编制规则发生变动，不构成任何投 资建议或个股推荐。提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌 仅供参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整， 不构成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了 解产品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 通信ETF（515880）年内涨超128%居全市场第一，资金面看，近10日净流入超15亿元，光模块占 比近50%，规模同类第一 相关机构表示，海外算力支撑逻辑 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's continuous rise last week was due to the phased repair of risk appetite driven by cyclical sectors. The main driving force of the market came from internal structural changes, with cyclical sectors led by non - ferrous metals driving the index up. The repair of risk appetite was also supported by the external environment such as the phased appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the marginal improvement of overseas liquidity expectations [5]. - The Spring Festival - before market still has upward space, and there are short - term opportunities for bottom - fishing. The main risk factors restricting the market have weakened, and risk appetite is expected to remain high. The market is in a stage of preparing for the Spring Festival - before market, and the short - term market is likely to rise gradually with internal structural adjustments [8]. - The technology theme is the most elastic main line in the Spring Festival market, focusing on sub - sectors such as robotics, commercial aerospace, and nuclear power. Overseas computing power and semiconductor - related sectors can be configured with a medium - term holding strategy. The non - banking financial sector has certain allocation value. In the consumer sector, it is more appropriate to grasp thematic trading opportunities, focusing on sports consumption, medical devices, and traditional Chinese medicine [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review - **Market Performance**: Most major market indices rose last week, with the ChiNext 50 having the largest increase of 4.07%. Among the major industry indices, the Materials Index and the Information Technology Index performed relatively well, with weekly increases of 5.85% and 4.36% respectively, while the Daily Consumption Index and the Telecommunication Services Index performed weakly, with decreases of - 0.65% and - 0.34% respectively. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries rose, with non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and power equipment having larger increases of 6.43%, 6.00%, and 5.37% respectively, and beauty care, social services, and banks having larger decreases of - 1.08%, - 1.05%, and - 1.01% respectively [9][14][17]. - **Trading Heat**: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 1,965.166 billion yuan (the previous value was 1,760.484 billion yuan), at a relatively high historical level (87.50% of the three - year historical quantile) [19]. - **Valuation Tracking**: As of December 26, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 22.27, an increase of 0.48 from the previous week, at the 94.00% quantile of the past five - year history. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) were repaired [24]. Market Observation - **Reasons for the Market Rise**: The continuous rise of the market last week was mainly due to the phased repair of risk appetite driven by cyclical sectors. There were no new direct positive factors from policies and news, and the driving force came from internal structural changes. The rise of the index was led by cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals, and the external environment also supported the repair of risk appetite [5]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on the technology theme, overseas computing power and semiconductor - related sectors, the non - banking financial sector, and thematic trading opportunities in the consumer sector, especially sports consumption, medical devices, and traditional Chinese medicine [7]. Economic Calendar - The report mentions to pay attention to global economic data, but specific data details are not provided [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2][30]. Core Insights - The domestic computing power sector is expected to see significant improvements in supply due to rising yield rates and capacity in advanced processes, alongside a clearer commercialization model for domestic CSP manufacturers. This is anticipated to drive demand for domestic computing power in training applications [2][30]. - The storage sector is projected to experience a substantial increase in demand for DRAM and NAND due to the continuous release of large models. Supply-side improvements from new products by Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory Technologies are expected to stimulate production capacity [2][30]. - The overseas computing power sector is witnessing rapid growth in AI-related commercial demands, with supply chains expanding and new technologies emerging. Continued attention is recommended for key overseas computing power industry chains [2][30]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The overall market saw an increase, with the electronic industry outperforming the broader market. The Shenwan Electronic Index rose by 6.05%, ranking second among 31 Shenwan industries, and has increased by 30.63% year-to-date, ranking fourth [1][13]. Weekly Focus - Huawei launched the Mate 80 series, featuring advanced technologies and pricing starting from 4699 yuan. Qualcomm introduced the fifth-generation Snapdragon 8 mobile platform, enhancing performance and capabilities for flagship mobile experiences [25][26]. Industry Analysis - The report highlights key players in the domestic computing power sector, including Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation and Cambrian Technology. It also identifies significant players in the NAND and DRAM semiconductor industry chain, such as Zhongwei Company and Tuojing Technology [2][30].

Group 1 - The integrated circuit ETF (159546) experienced a high of nearly 4% in the morning but closed with a gain of 1.28% [1] - The strong performance of the integrated circuit ETF is attributed to the market's recognition of domestic computing power and the involvement of certain manufacturers in Google's OCS supply chain [2][6] - Google's deployment of optical circuit switches (OCS) in data centers is a significant factor, as OCS allows direct transmission of data using light, avoiding the need for conversion to electrical signals, resulting in lower power consumption and latency [2] Group 2 - OCS technology has advantages such as lower power consumption and faster signal transmission compared to traditional electronic switching, but it faces challenges due to its immature technology and incomplete supply chain [2][3] - The current mainstream OCS solutions include MEMS mirrors, digital liquid crystal, piezoelectric ceramics, and silicon photonic waveguides, with Google utilizing a MEMS-based approach for its Palomar OCS [3] - The supply chain for OCS is currently fragmented, but the recognition of overseas computing power is growing, with Google's AI ecosystem creating a competitive advantage across chips, networks, models, and applications [6]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.29% at 3875.26 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.44%. The market experienced a high of over 2% in the morning before retreating [1] - The total trading volume in A-shares was 1.72 trillion yuan, slightly down from 1.8 trillion yuan the previous day [1] Integrated Circuit Sector - The Integrated Circuit ETF saw a strong performance, initially rising nearly 4% before closing up 1.28%. This was attributed to the growing market recognition of domestic computing power and the involvement of certain manufacturers in Google's Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) supply chain [2][7] - OCS technology allows for direct transmission of data using light, avoiding the need for conversion to electrical signals, which results in lower power consumption and latency. However, the technology is still maturing and lacks a complete industrial chain [2] Consumer Electronics Sector - The Consumer Electronics ETF rose by 0.36%, driven by favorable policies and new product launches. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, categorizing consumer electronics and smart wearable products as key consumption areas [9] - Global demand for consumer electronics is gradually recovering, with smartphone revenue expected to grow by 5% year-on-year by Q3 2025, reaching a historical high [9] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery industry saw significant gains, particularly in solid-state battery concepts. The price of electrolyte has risen to 55,750 yuan per ton, an increase of approximately 180% since the beginning of the year, while the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has reached 165,500 yuan per ton [11] - A major development in solid-state batteries includes the establishment of the first large-capacity solid-state battery production line in China, which is currently in small-scale testing. Full-scale production is anticipated around 2030, although challenges remain in technology and cost [11]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector is performing well this year, leading to increased sensitivity in the market, especially during sideways trading periods. Investors are advised to focus on opportunities for buying on dips while being cautious of chasing hot concepts that may lead to losses [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market liquidity is improving, and there are clear signs of a bull market, with various sectors expected to perform accordingly. The upcoming performance vacuum period starting in November is anticipated to make many sectors more active, as is typical in the second half of the year [1]. - Investors are encouraged to select sectors with strong fundamentals and robust performance support, as these will provide higher safety margins. Strategies such as dollar-cost averaging and buying on dips are recommended for participation [1]. Group 2: Focus on Computing Power Sector - The computing power sector includes both overseas and domestic computing power directions. For overseas computing power, the communication ETF (515880) is recommended due to its high correlation with the overseas computing industry chain and expected strong performance [2]. - In the domestic computing power sector, the semiconductor industry chain is crucial. For those seeking flexibility, the GPU-related opportunities within the semiconductor chain should be monitored, particularly through the chip ETF (512760) and the more elastic science and technology chip ETF (589100). For investors prioritizing safety, the semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) is highlighted for its relatively low valuation and high safety [2].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a volatile upward trend this year, with the index recently surpassing the critical 4000-point level, indicating a phase of adjustment in the market [5][9]. Group 1: Market Overview - The current market is witnessing discussions around style rotation and sector shifts, with technology stocks needing adjustments after a period of gains [5][6]. - The recent positive year-on-year CPI data has led to a temporary recovery in some consumer stocks [5][6]. Group 2: Technology Stocks Outlook - The technology stock market can be divided into two main themes: overseas computing power and domestic substitution [6][9]. - The overseas computing power theme is driven by significant capital expenditure increases from leading cloud companies in the U.S., which has led to a sustained improvement in computing infrastructure and a rise in performance and orders for domestic companies in sectors like optical modules and servers [4][6][7]. - Despite recent declines in U.S. tech stocks, some companies, particularly in optical modules and optical chips, have reported earnings that exceeded expectations, demonstrating resilience in their stock prices [4][6]. Group 3: Domestic Substitution - The domestic substitution theme focuses on the semiconductor sector, particularly the low domestic substitution rate for semiconductor equipment [8]. - Anticipated expansions from domestic storage manufacturers are expected to create significant investment opportunities in semiconductor equipment, with two major storage companies expected to go public next year [8]. - The ongoing increase in storage prices, driven by rising demand for overseas servers, is likely to continue, further enhancing the investment landscape for domestic semiconductor equipment [8]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The A-share market may experience some fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, but for medium to long-term investments, the technology sector remains a focal point [9]. - The themes of overseas computing power and domestic substitution are highlighted as valuable areas for investment consideration, especially in light of potential monetary policy support and liquidity easing [9].

Core Insights - The "Hengyue Advantage Select" fund has shown remarkable performance this year, with a growth rate of 144.74%, ranking second in the market despite a previous maximum drawdown exceeding 70% [1][10]. Fund Performance - The fund's share increased from 14.6 million to 18.1 million due to strong performance in the third quarter, ending a trend of net redemptions [3]. - The fund's maximum drawdown is reported at -71.61%, indicating significant volatility in its past performance [2]. Fund Management Changes - The previous fund manager, Ye Jia, was replaced due to poor performance, with Wu Haining now co-managing the fund [9][10]. - Wu Haining's management has led to a significant turnaround, achieving a return of 153.12% during her tenure [11]. Investment Strategy - Wu Haining's strategy involved a three-phase approach: initial average returns, a surge in performance from June to September driven by overseas computing power, and a focus on storage chips post-September [12][13][14]. - The fund's high turnover rate of 1500% reflects an aggressive trading strategy aimed at maximizing returns [17]. Market Context - The current market is experiencing a correction after reaching new highs, with a potential for further volatility as sectors that previously performed well are now seeing declines [19][28]. - The market dynamics indicate a shift from broad-based growth to sector-specific performance, suggesting a narrowing focus in investment opportunities [28].

Summary of Nanya Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Nanya Technology - **Industry**: High-end materials for electronics, particularly in AI computing and high-speed applications Key Points and Arguments Production Capacity and Demand - Nanya Technology has been operating at near full capacity since March, with production capacity expected to increase from 2.8 million units last year to 3.2-3.4 million units this year due to line expansions [2][3] - The company has completed two rounds of price increases, with the first round in April-May and the second expected to be completed by the end of the month, with a price increase of approximately 10% [3][20] Product Segmentation and Revenue Sources - High-end products (level 6 and above) account for over 60% of total production, peaking at nearly 80% in May and June [2][4] - Revenue distribution: - Communications: ~20% - Consumer: ~20% - Automotive: 15%-20% - Energy: ~15% [6] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in communication products, automotive safety-related products, and energy markets, while also moving consumer products towards high-end segments [8] - The goal is to reduce the scale of basic products and expand strategic product lines [8] Market Outlook - The demand for high-speed materials is expected to grow, with a target of 20%-25% of revenue from high-speed materials by 2025 and 25%-30% by 2026, aiming for total revenue to exceed 6 billion yuan [4][11] - The automotive market is anticipated to grow due to increased usage of copper-clad laminates in new energy vehicles [7] International Expansion and Partnerships - Nanya Technology is actively expanding its overseas market presence, collaborating with major companies like AMD, Intel, and NVIDIA [2][10] - The company has made significant progress in certification with AMD and is accelerating material testing with NVIDIA [10][17] Future Production Plans - By the end of this year, the design capacity is expected to reach 3.9 million units, with plans for further expansion in 2026 [21][22] - A new factory in Jiangsu Haimen is expected to be completed by Q4 2026, with a monthly capacity of 250,000 to 300,000 units [22] Supply Chain and Material Sourcing - Nanya Technology relies on domestic suppliers for high-end materials and has established long-term partnerships to ensure supply security and cost reduction [26] - The company prioritizes quality and supply security when selecting upstream resin suppliers [27] Revenue Projections - For 2026, the company anticipates significant revenue growth, with expectations of reaching 6 billion yuan, of which 25% may come from non-AH area clients [15] Challenges and Considerations - The company faces uncertainties regarding the final outcomes of current bidding processes and potential shifts in market demand [5][13] Additional Important Information - The company is also focusing on high-end IC packaging materials and has made advancements in developing high-end products [25] - The establishment of a fourth production base in Thailand is planned, but construction timing will depend on market conditions [23]