Slowing job growth and cooling wages suggest holiday spending resilience may be tested into early 2026.Two-thirds of U.S. consumers still live paycheck to paycheck, increasingly out of necessity rather than choice.Retail sales were flat in October as paycheck-to-paycheck households pulled back on discretionary categories.After weeks of delay, a fresh wave of government data is finally offering a clearer snapshot of how consumers and workers in the United States have weathered months of tariff uncertainty, h ...

on 10-Dec-2025 9 December 2025 US Payments and Internet The Age of Agents: How does it change commerce and how we pay? Harshita Rawat, CFA +1 917 344 8485 harshita.rawat@bernsteinsg.com Nikhil Devnani, CFA +1 917 344 8425 nikhil.devnani@bernsteinsg.com Mark Shmulik +1 917 344 8508 mark.shmulik@bernsteinsg.com Richard J. Clarke, FCA +44 20 7676 6850 richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com Wenhuan Chang +1 917 344 8546 wenhuan.chang@bernsteinsg.com Lavnik Balyan +1 917 344 8563 lavnik.balyan@bernsteinsg.com A century ...

8 December 2025 | 12:19AM HKT Equity Research NAVIGATING CHINA INTERNET What to do from here & key focuses/debates post results season; China Internet Trip takeaways We lift the Cloud & Data Centers sub-sector to our top preferred (to #1, from #3) post 3Q results/after our recent China Internet Trip, given our expectations of sustained AI growth momentum on the back of AI training/inference demand, hyperscalers' multi-chip approach and data centers' positive order volume outlook, capex expansion and capital ...

Core Insights - Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is recognized as one of the best consumer cyclical stocks according to analysts, with significant involvement in the AI ecosystem through partnerships and its AWS cloud business [1] Analyst Recommendations - As of November 28th, 48 out of 67 analysts recommend buying Amazon.com, with 16 ratings as Strong Buy and 3 as Hold, leading to an average price target of $294.65 [2] Recent Analyst Coverage - Recent analyst actions include Rosenblatt maintaining a Buy rating with a price target increase from $298 to $305 following strong AWS growth, while Rothschild Redburn downgraded the stock to Neutral due to concerns over returns from AI investments [3] AWS Capacity Growth - During the third-quarter earnings call, CEO Andy Jassy highlighted that Amazon has added 3.8 gigawatts of capacity in the past year, with plans to double overall capacity by the end of 2027, indicating strong growth potential in AWS [4]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ:MELI) is recognized as one of the best consumer cyclical stocks, being a leading eCommerce firm in Latin America with 94 million unique buyers on its platform [1] Analyst Recommendations - As of November 28th, 18 out of 26 analysts recommend MercadoLibre, Inc. shares as a Buy, with 5 Strong Buy and 3 Hold ratings, and an average price target of $2,847 [2] Recent Analyst Coverage - UBS maintained a Buy rating for MercadoLibre, Inc. on November 24th but reduced the price target from $3,000 to $2,900, previously set on October 22nd and June 2nd, indicating a focus on the firm's ability to sustain margins and growth amid competition [3] Earnings Performance - MercadoLibre's third-quarter earnings reported a net income of $421 million, which fell short of analyst estimates of $481 million [4] AI Integration - The CEO of MercadoLibre expressed excitement about the potential of agentic AI to enhance discovery, service, and productivity, highlighting the launch of a seller assistant and an AI assistant for fintech services [4]

A data breach at Coupang has exposed personal information of nearly 34 million customers.By completing this form, you agree to receive marketing communications from PYMNTS and to the sharing of your information with our sponsor, if applicable, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions .Complete the form to unlock this article and enjoy unlimited free access to all PYMNTS content — no additional logins required.The eCommerce company, considered the “Amazon of South Korea,” revealed the b ...

Core Insights - Wage volatility and paycheck-to-paycheck pressures persist, indicating continued consumer flexibility but limited financial headroom [1][10] - Retail sales in September showed a modest increase, with total sales at $733.3 billion, up 0.2% month-over-month and 4.3% year-over-year, but missed consensus estimates [4][5] - Discretionary spending categories are experiencing weakness, with notable declines in motor vehicles and parts (-0.3%), electronics and appliances (-0.5%), and clothing and accessories (-0.7%) [5][6] Retail Performance - Retail sales data indicates a pullback in discretionary categories related to home and leisure, with sporting goods and hobby stores down 2.5% in September [6] - Essential and value-oriented retail channels are seeing growth, with health and personal care stores up 1.1% and miscellaneous store retailers up 2.9% [7] - Nonstore retailer sales increased 6% year-over-year, but showed a decline of 0.7% month-over-month in September, suggesting a potential wait for promotions [8] Consumer Behavior - The Wage to Wallet Index indicates a 0.81% drop in hourly wages for labor economy workers in October, equating to a loss of approximately $14 billion in annualized spending power [10] - Many consumers are trapped in narrow liquidity bands, relying on short-term credit and making trade-offs among bills, while adapting spending towards value channels [11] - Retailers and payment firms should not assume continued digital commerce growth, as consumer spending remains cautious despite resilience [12] Payment Trends - The importance of value, convenience, and flexibility in payment product design is increasing, with consumers gravitating towards buy now, pay later (BNPL) options and flexible financing [13] - Stakeholders should anticipate uneven cash flows and higher credit use, emphasizing the need for real-time insights into spending patterns [13]

Summary of Q3'25 Earnings Call for US Internet & Interactive Entertainment Companies Industry Overview - The earnings season for US Internet & Interactive Entertainment companies was marked by volatility in stock price reactions, driven by emerging themes in the market [3][4][5]. Key Themes and Insights 1. **AI Investment Trends** - There is a significant increase in AI investments from major players like Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), and Meta (META), with capital expenditures (capex) rising [3][18]. - The demand for AI workloads is increasing, leading to accelerated revenue growth for public hyperscalers [3][37]. - Investor discussions are focused on the rate of change in investments and the return on spend, particularly for Alphabet and Amazon, while Meta's visibility into returns remains debated [3][18]. 2. **Digital Consumer Behavior** - There is a mixed picture regarding consumer spending, with lower-income households facing downward pressure on discretionary purchases [3][4]. - Brand advertising has shown volatility, particularly among large advertisers in sectors like auto and retail, which could impact the broader digital economy [3][4]. 3. **Growth-Oriented Investments** - Companies are prioritizing long-term growth opportunities related to AI over short-term margins, which requires more proof points to boost investor confidence [4][18]. Company-Specific Insights 1. **Amazon (AMZN)** - AWS revenue growth was approximately 20%, alleviating some bearish concerns regarding its competitive positioning in AI and non-AI workloads [5][37]. - The upcoming AWS re:Invent conference is anticipated to provide further insights into AI positioning and capacity easing [5]. 2. **Meta Platforms (META)** - The deployment of AI has led to better-than-expected revenue growth, but elevated investment levels and questions about long-term monetization opportunities are weighing on investor sentiment [8][18]. 3. **Uber (UBER)** - Demand across mobility and delivery sectors remained strong, with solid bookings trends and positive forward commentary [8][62]. - Investors are focused on the impact of medium to long-term investments on margins and the evolution of the autonomous vehicle landscape [8][62]. 4. **Google (GOOGL)** - GOOGL reported healthy topline growth across all major segments, with positive trends in monetizing AI offerings [8][37]. - The company raised its FY25 capex guidance to $91-93 billion, indicating a commitment to long-term AI opportunities [18]. 5. **eCommerce Trends** - eCommerce results were generally positive, with companies like Amazon and eBay highlighting AI initiatives to enhance customer experience [29]. - Despite a sluggish consumer spending environment, companies demonstrated resilient performance and market share gains [29]. Risks and Considerations - The competitive intensity around AI foundational models is a key risk factor, with ongoing monitoring of spending rates and monetization potential [3][18]. - Investors are concerned about the sustainability of growth in consumer spending, particularly as the holiday season approaches [7][51]. - The online travel sector is facing challenges with more difficult comparisons in Q4, despite a solid travel environment in Q3 [50][51]. Conclusion - The Q3'25 earnings call highlighted a complex landscape for US Internet & Interactive Entertainment companies, with significant focus on AI investments, consumer behavior, and company-specific growth strategies. Investors are advised to remain vigilant regarding macroeconomic conditions and competitive dynamics as they assess future opportunities and risks in the sector [3][4][5][18].

Summary of the Conference Call on China's E-commerce Industry Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the e-commerce sector in China, particularly focusing on the Singles' Day shopping festival and its implications for online retail growth and consumer behavior. Key Highlights from Singles' Day Festival 1. **GMV Growth and Parcel Volume**: - Estimated gross merchandise value (GMV) growth of approximately 10% during the Singles' Day festival period from November 1 to November 11, with parcel volume growth of about 9% year-over-year (yoy) [2][8][36]. - The growth rate for parcel volume has moderated compared to the previous year, which saw a 21% increase [2]. 2. **Impact of National Subsidies**: - The fourth batch of national subsidies, totaling RMB 69 billion, was rolled out on October 1, contributing to the overall GMV growth [8][13]. - The subsidies are expected to have a diminishing impact in 4Q25 due to a high base effect from the previous year [13]. 3. **Performance of Major E-commerce Players**: - Alibaba (BABA) reported an 8% growth in GMV, while JD.com (JD) saw a 7% increase in GMV and a 40% increase in active buyers [16]. - Pinduoduo (PDD) emphasized its everyday low price strategy, achieving a 12% GMV growth during the festival [16]. 4. **Shift to Online Services**: - Online services GMV grew by 27% in October, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards services rather than goods [1]. 5. **AI Integration in E-commerce**: - Significant adoption of AI tools by major platforms, with Alibaba rolling out six AI tools that improved click-through rates (CTR) by 10% and merchant return on investment (ROI) by 12% [10]. Additional Insights - **Consumer Behavior Trends**: - There is a noted decline in home appliance sales, down 15% yoy, while communication devices saw a robust growth of 23% yoy [1][54]. - The overall retail sales growth was 2.9% yoy in October, aligning with expectations [1]. - **Quick Commerce Growth**: - Quick commerce GMV increased by 138.4% yoy, with platforms like Meituan and JD seeing substantial growth in their respective categories [12]. - **Market Competition**: - The competition in the quick commerce sector is intensifying, with expectations of a fragmented long-term landscape as companies focus on improving unit economics [12]. - **Sustainability of Growth**: - Concerns regarding the sustainability of national trade-in subsidies and their impact on appliance sales moving forward [13]. Conclusion - The e-commerce sector in China is experiencing a normalization in growth rates post-Singles' Day, with significant shifts towards online services and AI integration. The competitive landscape remains dynamic, with major players adapting their strategies to maintain market share amidst changing consumer preferences and regulatory pressures.

Core Insights - Alibaba.com is set to enhance its B2B eCommerce platform with agentic AI capabilities in December, aiming to improve supplier discovery and engagement for businesses [1][2] - The new AI Mode feature will provide tailored recommendations by interpreting natural language queries and analyzing various supplier metrics [2][3] - AI Mode will integrate with existing services like secure payment and Trade Assurance to create a fully automated trade experience [3][4] AI Mode and Accio - AI Mode is powered by Alibaba.com's AI-driven B2B search engine, Accio, which was launched in 2024 and can interpret unstructured data such as product sketches and factory capabilities [4][5] - Accio aims to reveal the "hidden product shelf," focusing on specialized suppliers, particularly high-potential SMEs, that are often overlooked by traditional search methods [5][6] Strategic Focus and Financial Performance - Alibaba has shifted its focus towards AI and eCommerce, streamlining operations by divesting non-core businesses to enhance user experience [6][7] - In the quarter ending June 30, Alibaba reported a 2% year-over-year revenue growth, which increases to 10% when excluding revenue from sold businesses, indicating a strategic pivot towards consumption and AI + Cloud investments [7]