Group 1 - The manufacturing sector in Tianjin has shown a significant growth rate, with sales revenue from invoices increasing at a rate 2 percentage points higher than the overall city growth rate [1] - Traditional industries have demonstrated steady growth, with automotive manufacturing up by 6.3%, chemical raw materials and products by 5%, electrical machinery and equipment by 4%, general equipment by 5.1%, and specialized equipment by 11.6% [1] - High-tech industries are experiencing rapid growth, with computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing increasing by 16.5%, and railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing rising by 18.6% [1] Group 2 - Certain manufacturing sectors with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan are witnessing remarkable growth, such as synthetic materials manufacturing up by 112.1%, computer manufacturing up by 55%, and motor manufacturing up by 34.8% [1] - The electric vehicle manufacturing sector has also shown strong performance, with an increase of 27.6%, while environmental protection, postal, social public services, and other specialized equipment manufacturing grew by 18.9% [1] Group 3 - The Tianjin Taxation Bureau is implementing a digital transformation in tax collection and management, focusing on creating data profiles for businesses to match applicable policies accurately [2] - The bureau aims to enhance policy management and provide comprehensive tax assessments for businesses, strengthening tax risk warnings [2] - Future efforts will include analyzing the effects of tax policies and optimizing the tax environment to encourage compliance and integrity in tax payments [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [3] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw an increase to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, and small enterprises dropped to 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [3] - The production index was 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [3][5] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, remaining above the critical point [5] - The construction industry index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, and the service industry index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points [5] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing fell to 45.7%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand, particularly in the construction sector, which saw a new orders index of 42.7% [5] Group 3: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index for July was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in business activities [7] Group 4: Service Trade Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's service trade totaled 38,872.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, with exports at 16,883 billion yuan, up 15.0%, and imports at 21,989.6 billion yuan, up 3.2% [4][9] - Knowledge-intensive service trade grew to 15,025.4 billion yuan, an increase of 6.0%, with significant contributions from other business services and telecommunications [9] - Travel services experienced the fastest growth, reaching 10,802.9 billion yuan, up 12.3%, with exports growing by 68.7% [9]

Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month[5] - Service industry business activity index at 50.1%, a decrease from 50.5%[5] - New export orders PMI at 47.1%, down from 47.7% last month, indicating continued pressure on exports[5] High-Tech Industry Performance - High-tech industry PMI at 50.6%, slightly down from 50.9%, remaining above the threshold[5] - Production and new orders PMI for high-tech sectors at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, showing resilience compared to traditional industries[5] - Confidence in high-tech sectors bolstered by "anti-involution" policies, leading to increased expectations for production activities, with PMI rising to 52.6%[5] Market Dynamics - "Anti-involution" policies have positively impacted prices in high-tech industries, with significant increases in factory and raw material purchase price indices[5] - Service sector maintained above the threshold, driven by summer holiday effects, with indices for related sectors like rail and air transport exceeding 60.0%[5] - The ongoing economic transition emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as export momentum weakens post-Geneva negotiations[5]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][3] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, and small enterprises had a PMI of 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [3][4] - The production index was at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production [3][4] Group 2: Demand and Inventory Indicators - The new orders index was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand for manufacturing [4] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating a continued reduction in major raw material inventories [4] - The employment index was 48.0%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight improvement in employment conditions within the manufacturing sector [4] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, remaining above the critical point [7] - The construction industry business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, while the service industry index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points [9] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 45.7%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand [11] Group 4: Price and Employment Trends in Non-Manufacturing - The input price index was 50.3%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating an overall increase in input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises [11] - The sales price index was 47.9%, down 0.9 percentage points, suggesting a decrease in overall sales prices [11] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.6%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in employment conditions [11] Group 5: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [15]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a marginal decline in manufacturing sentiment[9] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a return to contraction territory[12] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still within the expansion range[15] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand have weakened, with the supply-demand gap widening in July[9] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decline in external demand[12] - The marginal consumption propensity of residents is at 65.52%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points year-on-year, indicating cautious consumer spending[13] Group 3: Policy Impact and Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to marginally improve PPI growth, supporting corporate profit expectations[2] - The BCI profit forecast index for July is at 44.26, an increase of 0.48 points, indicating improved profit expectations[18] - If inflation recovery is sustainable in Q3, the capital market may stabilize and trend positively in August[26] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential escalation of global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts[27] - The impact of extreme weather on construction and service sectors has been significant, leading to a slowdown in expansion momentum[21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI declined in July, influenced by seasonal factors and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies aimed at capacity management in key industries, which has led to an increase in raw material prices. Additionally, weak real estate demand has negatively impacted domestic demand [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The construction business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, while the services business activity index was 50.0%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The marginal decline in manufacturing PMI aligns with seasonal trends, with some regions experiencing supply and demand disruptions due to extreme weather conditions. There is a notable divergence in PMI performance between large and small enterprises [2]. - Production has entered a low season, with demand showing a greater-than-seasonal slowdown. Certain sectors, such as railway, shipping, aerospace, and computer communication, continue to see new orders in the expansion zone, likely due to ongoing equipment upgrade policies. Conversely, sectors like chemical raw materials and non-metallic mineral products remain below the critical point due to insufficient end-demand amid real estate pressures [2]. Services Sector - The service sector remains stable, supported by seasonal factors. The tourism-related industries have seen increased activity due to summer holiday effects, with transportation, postal, and entertainment sectors maintaining high business activity indices. However, real estate and residential services are in contraction zones, indicating weaker performance [3]. - The construction industry has experienced a greater-than-seasonal decline in activity, primarily due to weak real estate demand and a slowdown in fiscal spending on infrastructure projects. Future improvements in construction activity are anticipated, supported by major projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [3]. Policy and Investment Outlook - The central political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for sustained macro policy efforts and timely enhancements. The focus should be on three main lines: first, the "anti-involution" policies are expected to adjust supply-side dynamics in certain industries, potentially boosting price levels; second, 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for consumer upgrades will be allocated in July, with remaining funds to be disbursed in October, supporting consumption; third, urban renewal projects are likely to enhance investment, particularly in municipal infrastructure and the renovation of old urban areas [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Manufacturing - Overall: In July, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 25.4%, with a change of - 18.6%. Seven industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, an increase of 1 month - on - month and 5 year - on - year [4]. - Supply: It slightly rebounded. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in July was 50.7, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [4]. - Demand: It slightly improved. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 49.8, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [4]. - Inventory: De - stocking slowed down. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in July remained unchanged at 47.3, with 7 industries seeing inventory increases and 8 seeing decreases. The raw - material inventory in March increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, with 6 industries seeing inventory increases and 8 seeing decreases [4]. Non - manufacturing - Overall: In July, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 15.2%, with a change of - 15.3%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 1 year - on - year [5]. - Supply: Employment slowed down. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in July remained unchanged at 45.5. The service industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points, while the construction industry increased by 1 percentage point [5]. - Demand: It recovered. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 46.1, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry's new orders increased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry's increased by 1 percentage point [5]. - Inventory: De - stocking slowed down. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in July remained unchanged at 45.4. The service industry remained unchanged, and the construction industry increased by 0.2 percentage points [5]. Summary by Directory Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In July, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 25.4%, with a change of - 18.6%. Seven industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, an increase of 1 month - on - month and 5 year - on - year [10]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: In July, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 15.2%, with a change of - 15.3%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 1 year - on - year [10]. Demand: Focus on the Improvement of General Equipment and Construction Installation and Decoration - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 49.8, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [17]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 46.1, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry's new orders increased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry's increased by 1 percentage point. By industry, 8 industries improved month - on - month, while 7 declined [17]. Supply: Focus on the Contraction of Non - ferrous Metals, Automobiles, and Textiles - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in July was 50.7, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined. The manufacturing PMI employee index in March remained unchanged at 48.0. Six industries improved month - on - month, while 9 declined [24]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in July remained unchanged at 45.5. The service industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry increased by 1 percentage point. By industry, 4 industries improved month - on - month, while 11 declined [24]. Price: Focus on the Pressure of Non - ferrous Metals and Textiles - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI ex - factory price index in July was 46.4, a 1.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries saw price improvements, while 6 declined. In terms of profit, the profit trend in March decreased by 1.4 percentage points, and the overall profit continued to converge [31]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing charge price index in July was 48.0, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry increased by 0.4 percentage points, and the construction industry increased by 0.7 percentage points. By industry, 8 industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined. In terms of profit, the profit in March decreased by 0.6 percentage points. The service industry decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 1.3 percentage points [31]. Inventory: Focus on the Low Levels of Postal Services and Textile and Apparel - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in July remained unchanged at 47.3. Seven industries saw inventory increases, and 8 saw decreases. The raw - material inventory in March increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7. Six industries saw inventory increases, and 8 saw decreases [40]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in July remained unchanged at 45.4. The service industry remained unchanged, and the construction industry increased by 0.2 percentage points. By industry, 6 industries saw inventory increases, and 9 saw decreases [40]. Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing data such as the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI in July, new orders, production, prices, and inventory, along with their changes and five - year percentiles [8]. - Tables present detailed PMI data for various manufacturing industries, including general equipment, automobiles, computers, and others, covering aspects like new orders, production, employment, prices, and inventory [51][56][60].

Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, yet remaining above the critical point [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, while the production index was at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points but still indicating expansion for three consecutive months [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in high-end equipment manufacturing [1] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, marking the first time since March that it exceeded the critical point, while the factory price index was at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points [2] - Industries such as petroleum, coal, and black metal processing saw significant rebounds in their purchasing and factory price indices, indicating improved market prices [2] Business Activity by Enterprise Size - In July, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, with production and new orders indices at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, indicating sustained expansion [2] - The PMI for medium-sized enterprises increased to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, while small enterprises saw a PMI of 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, with construction activity slowing due to adverse weather, reflected in a business activity index of 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points [4] - Sectors related to travel and consumption, such as railway and air transport, maintained high business activity indices above 60%, indicating robust growth [4] Future Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations due to extreme weather, the overall economic foundation remains solid, with large enterprises continuing to play a stabilizing role [3] - The manufacturing sector's production activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating optimism for future performance [3] - Non-manufacturing enterprises maintain stable optimism, with a business activity expectation index of 55.8%, suggesting continued growth in investment and consumption activities in the second half of the year [4]

Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points from June, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and extreme weather conditions [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, and the comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2%, suggesting overall economic output remains in an expansion phase [1][4] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index and new orders index were recorded at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, both showing a decline from June, while the new export orders index fell to 47.1% [2] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, with key sectors like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintaining PMIs of 50.3% and 50.6%, indicating ongoing expansion [2][3] Price Trends - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw material purchase price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, both increasing from June [3] - The rise in prices was attributed to the increase in prices of major commodities such as coal and steel, which significantly impacted the manufacturing PMI [3] Service Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained above 50%, indicating continued expansion despite a slight decline from June [4][5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable, with certain industries related to travel and consumption experiencing high activity levels, while construction activities slowed due to adverse weather [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that macroeconomic policies should be adjusted to stimulate demand, particularly through increased government investment in public goods and infrastructure [4] - The upcoming summer consumption is expected to positively influence economic activity in August, supported by ongoing policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [5]

Group 1 - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index and new orders index were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, with declines of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production but a slowdown in market demand [1][2] Group 2 - Extreme weather conditions in July, including heatwaves and floods, hindered outdoor construction and daily life, impacting market demand [2] - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was 48.3%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an improvement in overall market price levels [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, while the consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.9 percentage points [2] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index was 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still within the expansion range, indicating overall stability [3] - The summer holiday effect positively impacted sectors related to consumer travel and spending, with indices for railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment exceeding 60.0%, indicating rapid growth in business volume [3]