November Nymex natural gas (NGX25) on Thursday closed down by -0.106 (-3.07%). Nov nat-gas prices retreated on Thursday from a greater-than-expected build in weekly nat-gas storage.  The EIA reported on Thursday that nat-gas inventories rose +87 bcf in the week ended October 17, above expectations of +83 bcf and the five-year average of +77 bcf. More News from Barchart A mixed weather forecast also undercut nat-gas prices on Thursday after forecaster Atmospheric G2 said forecasts shifted cooler in the ...

Core Viewpoint - National Fuel Gas Company is set to release its fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2025 earnings results on November 5, 2025, after market close, with a conference call scheduled for November 6, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. ET to discuss the results [1]. Company Information - National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified energy company headquartered in Western New York, operating an integrated collection of natural gas assets across four business segments: Exploration & Production, Pipeline & Storage, Gathering, and Utility [3]. - Additional information about the company can be found on its website [3]. Conference Call Details - Participants must pre-register to join the conference call, and a webcast link will be available on the NFG Investor Relations website [2]. - A replay of the conference call will be accessible until the end of the day on November 13, 2025, with specific dial-in instructions provided [2]. - Contact information for investor relations and media inquiries is available, including names and phone numbers of key personnel [2].

Core Insights - EQT Corporation reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings from continuing operations of 52 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 47 cents and significantly up from 12 cents in the same quarter last year [1][8] - Adjusted operating revenues rose to $1,753 million from $1,383 million year-over-year, although it fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,804 million [1][8] Sales Volume and Prices - Total sales volume increased to 634 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) from 581 Bcfe year-over-year, but missed the estimate of 638 Bcfe [4] - Natural gas sales volume was 596 Bcf, up from 547 Bcf in the prior year, but below the estimate of 604 Bcf [4] - Average realized price for natural gas equivalent was $2.76 per thousand cubic feet (Mcfe), up from $2.38 year-over-year [5] - The average natural gas price, including cash-settled derivatives, was $2.66 per Mcf, an increase from $2.23 [5] - The natural gas sales price was $3.24 per Mcf, higher than $2.27 recorded a year ago [5] - Oil price was $49.12 per barrel, down from $61.25 year-over-year, and below the estimate of $50.07 [6] Expenses and Cash Flow - Total operating expenses were $1.36 billion, down from $1.57 billion in the prior-year quarter [7] - Adjusted operating cash flow totaled $1.22 billion, up from $522 million a year ago [9] - Free cash flow was $601 million, a significant improvement from a negative free cash flow of $121 million in the same period of 2024 [9] Dividend and Capital Expenditure - EQT announced a quarterly cash dividend of 16.50 cents per share, reflecting a sequential increase of approximately 5% [3][8] - Total capital expenditure was $618 million, higher than $558 million reported a year ago [10] Guidance - For Q4 2025, EQT expects total sales volume to be between 550 and 600 Bcfe [11] - The total sales volume forecast for 2025 has been updated to 2,325-2,375 Bcfe [11] - Capital expenditures for Q4 are projected to be in the range of $635-$735 million, with full-year expectations of $2,300-$2,400 million [11]

Core Insights - JERA, through its subsidiary JERA Americas, has signed a $1.5 billion agreement to acquire full interests in the South Mansfield upstream asset in the Haynesville Shale basin, Louisiana, aligning with its strategy to diversify and strengthen its asset portfolio [1][5] Acquisition Details - The Haynesville asset currently produces over 500 million standard cubic feet per day (mscf/d) and includes 200 undeveloped locations, with plans to increase production to one billion standard cubic feet per day (bscf/d) through future investments [2] - The acquisition is supported by existing infrastructure and proximity to Gulf Coast LNG and data centers [2] Strategic Importance - JERA Americas CEO highlighted that the acquisition is a strategic addition to the asset portfolio, enhancing supply chain expertise and commitment to America's energy future [3] - The transaction involves Williams divesting its minority interest for $398 million, with deferred payments until 2029 based on development milestones [3][4] Management and Operations - GEP Haynesville II will sell its majority interest but will continue to manage the asset under a Contract Operating Agreement, while Williams will maintain its role in gathering natural gas to support increased production [4] - The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2025, pending customary closing conditions and approval from the Committee for Foreign Investments in the US [4] Market Positioning - The acquisition extends JERA's presence in the US, complementing existing power generation assets and LNG offtake agreements, enhancing diversification for JERA's LNG value chain and overall risk mitigation in a volatile energy market [5] - JERA's strategic priorities are reinforced by this acquisition, aiming to provide a stable and secure energy supply globally [6] Related Developments - Separately, Williams has partnered with Woodside Energy to invest in the Louisiana LNG project, acquiring an 80% stake in the Driftwood Pipeline, which includes a commitment to supply 1.5 million tonnes per annum of LNG [6]

Japan’s power generation major JERA will pay $1.5 billion for natural gas assets in the Haynesville basin, the company said today, in line with plans to boost its exposure to U.S. gas. The Japanese company will buy the assets from Williams and GEP Haynesville II, JERA said in a press release, adding that the assets currently produce some 500 million cu ft of natural gas daily and feature 200 undeveloped locations. The deal includes a provision to boost output from the assets to 1 billion cu ft daily, JERA ...

Core Insights - JERA Co. Inc. is acquiring full ownership of the South Mansfield shale gas asset in Louisiana for $1.5 billion, enhancing its role in the U.S. energy sector and strengthening its global LNG value chain [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The Haynesville acquisition includes assets producing over 500 million cubic feet of gas per day (MMscfd) across 210 square kilometers, with plans to double output to 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bscfd) through future investments [2]. - The asset has 200 undeveloped drilling locations and established infrastructure for gathering and transportation, leveraging proximity to Gulf Coast LNG terminals [2]. Group 2: Strategic Expansion - JERA is strategically expanding in the U.S., holding interests in ten power generation assets and committing to energy transition projects, including a significant low-carbon ammonia development [3]. - Earlier this year, JERA signed a major LNG offtake agreement for 5.5 million tonnes per year over 20 years, solidifying its position as a leading LNG buyer [3]. Group 3: Leadership Perspectives - The acquisition is described as a "strategic addition" by JERA Americas' CEO, enhancing the upstream portfolio and commitment to America's energy future [4]. - JERA's Chief Low Carbon Fuel Officer emphasized that the investment diversifies and mitigates market risk while aligning with the goal of providing stable, secure, and lower-carbon energy [4]. Group 4: Company Background - Founded in 2015 as a joint venture between Tokyo Electric Power and Chubu Electric Power, JERA supplies about one-third of Japan's electricity and aims for net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 [5]. - The Haynesville deal is part of a trend among Asian energy firms expanding upstream in North America to secure long-term gas supply amid volatile global markets [5].

Core Thesis - Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) is viewed positively due to recent insider buying, macroeconomic factors, and potential for strategic acquisitions, indicating management's confidence in the company's prospects [2][3][5] Insider Activity - A notable cluster of insider buying has been observed, including CAD 250,000 from VP of Business Development Lara Conrad, suggesting strong management conviction in Vermilion's future [2] - Independent director Stephen Larke's CAD 200,000 purchase and CEO Dion Hatcher's CAD 16,000 buy further support the notion that management believes the stock is undervalued [3] Strategic Acquisitions - Lara Conrad's previous experience with a significant acquisition at ARC Resources indicates that Vermilion may be preparing for strategic acquisitions, enhancing its growth potential [3] Macro Factors - The current Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet, which historically correlates with colder winters in Europe, potentially increasing heating demand by 20-50% and benefiting Vermilion's natural gas operations in Europe [4] - The accelerating data center buildout in Canada is expected to provide structural support to domestic natural gas prices, positioning Vermilion to benefit from price appreciation in both European (TTF) and Canadian (AECO) markets [5] Financial Position - Despite a 3.70% depreciation in stock value since the last bullish thesis coverage, the company's strategic direction remains intact, with ongoing share buybacks and undervalued assets presenting a compelling investment opportunity [6]

Core Insights - U.S.-based Williams will invest $1.9 billion in the development of LNG facilities and a pipeline for Woodside Energy's $17.5 billion liquefied natural gas project in Louisiana [1] Company Summary - Williams is committing significant capital to enhance its infrastructure in support of Woodside Energy's large-scale LNG project [1] - The investment reflects a strategic move to strengthen partnerships in the energy sector, particularly in liquefied natural gas [1] Industry Summary - The liquefied natural gas sector is witnessing substantial investments, with Woodside Energy's project valued at $17.5 billion, indicating robust growth potential in the industry [1] - The collaboration between U.S. and Australian companies highlights the increasing globalization of energy projects and the importance of cross-border investments in LNG [1]

Core Viewpoint - EQT reported third quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, but provided fourth quarter capex and production guidance that fell short of market estimates [1] Company Strategy - The company is focused on three main objectives: reducing the cost of energy production, enhancing the cleanliness of energy produced, and increasing the reliability of energy delivery [2] - EQT is strategically curtailing production during low price periods to hold back supply for higher price markets, which has resulted in better realized pricing [3][6] Production and Capacity - EQT has the flexibility to shut in up to 1 to 1.5 billion cubic feet (BCF) of natural gas per day, with a total production capacity of over 20 BCF per day [5] - The company produces over 2.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas annually, making the curtailed production a small percentage of total output [6] Market Outlook - The demand for natural gas is driven by three key themes: the transition from coal to natural gas, the expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, and the energy requirements of the AI industry [7][9] - EQT is on track to double its LNG exports to over 30 BCF per day by 2030, currently exporting 18 BCF per day [8] Energy Requirements - The U.S. needs to generate over 100 gigawatts of power to support the AI revolution, equivalent to powering 20 New York cities, which will significantly increase the demand for natural gas [10][11]

Sanctions & Trade Restrictions - EU countries agreed on a new sanctions package against Russia [1] - The sanctions package includes an import ban on liquefied natural gas from Russia [1] - The new sanctions package is set to be adopted Thursday morning [1]