J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 24 November 2025 US Natural Gas Outlook 2026/2027 Demand pull still informs balances, but supply mix matters Global Commodities Research Nina Fahy (1-212) 270-4483 nina.fahy@jpmchase.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA See page 11 for analyst certification and important disclosures. www.jpmorganmarkets.com {[{taXtcJdFyxh3w8BH9Tb02S3MsDXDKjgqoCNIO9sV6B9vu1yxyc0FZD-bCRS9H0fUgXilp1i6wCtlfgls}]} • Winter weather will ultimately be the key arbiter of 2026 price formation, as mainta ...

January Nymex natural gas (NGF26) on Wednesday closed up by +0.077 (+1.72%). Dec nat-gas prices moved higher on Wednesday after weekly nat-gas storage fell more than expected.  The EIA reported that nat-gas inventories fell -11 bcf in the week ended November 21, a larger draw than expectations of -9 bcf.  Nat-gas prices extended their gains on Wednesday due to colder US weather forecasts, potentially boosting nat-gas heating demand.  Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Wednesday that forecasts shifted colder i ...

Group 1 - Ukraine has resumed discussions with hedge funds regarding the restructuring of its warrants, which is essential for managing its sovereign debt obligations and ensuring long-term financial stability [2][9] - The UK Chancellor Reeves provided a mixed economic outlook, indicating that new trade deals could enhance growth beyond current forecasts while also freezing income tax thresholds due to ongoing productivity challenges [3][4][9] - The U.S. natural gas market saw a significant increase, with futures rising by 3.1% following a larger-than-expected storage draw reported by the EIA, indicating either strong demand or tightening supply [5][9] - The U.S. housing market experienced a slight decrease in 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, which fell to 6.23% from 6.26%, potentially improving affordability for homebuyers [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - Venture Global has secured a long-term LNG supply agreement with Tokyo Gas, highlighting the growing demand for U.S. LNG in Japan and strengthening U.S.-Japan energy trade ties [1][3][5]. Group 1: Agreement Details - Venture Global will supply Tokyo Gas with 1 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG for 20 years starting in 2030 [1]. - This agreement marks Venture Global's fourth long-term contract with a Japanese buyer, increasing its contracted volumes to 7.75 MTPA by 2025 [2]. Group 2: Market Context - The deal reflects a trend of Japanese utilities securing long-term U.S. LNG contracts amid supply-tightness and energy security concerns [2][5]. - Tokyo Gas is diversifying its LNG portfolio to stabilize pricing and mitigate spot-market volatility, indicating a strategic shift in Japan's energy procurement [3][5]. Group 3: Company Positioning - The contract enhances Venture Global's status as a rapidly growing LNG exporter, with over 100 MTPA of capacity in production, construction, or development [4]. - The agreement supports future expansions and the company's integrated strategy across various LNG-related operations, including carbon-capture projects [4].

Group 1 - Venture Global has signed a 20-year sales and purchase agreement with Tokyo Gas [1] - The agreement involves the supply of 1 million metric tonnes per annum of liquefied natural gas [1] - Supply is set to commence in 2030 [1]

ARLINGTON, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Venture Global and Tokyo Gas announced the execution of a new, long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA). ...

Core Insights - NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) is advancing its Rio Grande LNG project by initiating the pre-filing process with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for a sixth liquefaction train and an additional marine berth, with a full application expected in 2026 [1] Expansion Plans - The Rio Grande LNG facility in Brownsville, Texas, is undergoing rapid expansion with five liquefaction trains under construction, the first of which is expected to be completed by 2027, and all trains targeted to be operational by the early 2030s. The site has the potential to double its capacity, positioning NEXT for long-term growth in global LNG markets [2] Train 5 Development - NextDecade has secured a positive final investment decision for Train 5, which is fully financed and moving forward with Bechtel Energy. Train 5 will add approximately 6 million tons per annum (MTPA) of LNG capacity, supported by long-term agreements with major buyers such as JERA, EQT Corporation, and ConocoPhillips, with commercial deliveries anticipated in the first half of 2031. The total project cost for Train 5 and its associated infrastructure is estimated at $6.7 billion [3] Future Capacity and Strategy - With the development of Trains 6-8 and the initiation of the FERC pre-filing for Train 6, NextDecade aims to deliver reliable, lower-carbon LNG to global markets, increasing its total potential liquefaction capacity to 48 MTPA. As permitting and construction progress, NEXT is positioning the Rio Grande LNG as one of the largest and most flexible LNG export hubs in North America [4]

Core Insights - China's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are projected to decline for the 13th consecutive month in November, with a total of 5.81 million tons, representing a 5.5% decrease year-on-year, although this decline is less severe than the previous two months which saw declines over 10% [1][2][3] Group 1: Import Trends - In the first half of last year, China experienced a significant increase in LNG and pipeline gas imports, with a 14.3% annual rise, totaling 64.65 million tons as the country aimed to fill its storage [2] - Following the initial surge to fill storage capacities, natural gas imports weakened as facilities reached full capacity [2][3] Group 2: Domestic Production and Demand - This year, LNG demand has decreased significantly due to an increase in domestic natural gas production, which has been aligned with China's strategy to enhance reliance on domestic energy sources [3] - Domestic gas production reached an all-time high earlier this year, resulting in LNG imports dropping to the lowest level in six years, down by 19% year-on-year during the first seven months of 2025 [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The demand for LNG was also impacted by President Donald Trump's tariff policies against China, which led to retaliatory tariffs on U.S. energy imports, causing shipments of LNG and crude oil to drop to zero [4] Group 4: Pipeline Developments - China has increased its natural gas imports from Russia through the Power of Siberia pipeline, with recent agreements to expand the pipeline's capacity to over 100 billion cubic meters annually, comparable to the capacity of the Nord Stream pipelines [5]

Core Insights - Expand Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:EXE) has garnered significant hedge fund interest, placing it among the top 12 commodity stocks to buy currently [1] - Piper Sandler has reiterated a "Buy" rating on Expand Energy Corporation with a price target of $138 [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Expand Energy achieved the same production volume with seven rigs, down from 13 in 2023, resulting in year-to-date costs that are 30% lower than competitors [3] - The company reported a 40% increase in well productivity above basin averages and anticipates spending $150 million less to achieve higher volumes in 2025 [3] - Since the October 2024 merger, Expand Energy has reduced gross debt by $1.2 billion and returned $850 million to shareholders [4] Strategic Outlook - Management remains optimistic about long-term growth, driven by Gulf Coast demand, premium contracts like Lake Charles Methanol, and ongoing optimization efforts, despite mixed results in Western Haynesville and early-stage marketing strategies [5] - The company aims to supply 7.5 Bcf/d in 2026 with the same capital expenditures as in 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - EQT Corporation is recognized as one of the top commodity stocks to invest in, with strong multi-year performance and a bullish outlook from Morgan Stanley [1][2]. Financial Performance - Over the past five years, EQT has achieved over 50% production growth, a 30% reduction in costs, and a doubling of free cash flow [3]. - In Q3 2025, EQT reported $484 million in quarterly free cash flow, contributing to over $2.3 billion in free cash flow over the last four quarters [4]. - The company anticipates generating $19 billion in free cash flow over the next five years, driven by utility demand and a strategic LNG approach [5]. Capital Management - EQT demonstrated disciplined capital management by spending $70 million below the target midpoint and integrating Olympus Energy in just 34 days [5]. - The base dividend was raised by 5% to $0.66 per share, with expectations of minimal cash taxes in 2025, potentially saving nearly $100 million compared to previous forecasts [5]. Market Position - EQT has strengthened its competitive position in the market, supported by high production levels, strong productivity, and record-low cash costs [3][4].