“For a long time Shanxi has prospered on coal, but also been trapped by it,” Xi Jinping has said. Yet efforts to wean the province off the fossil fuel have achieved little.Entrenched interests and inefficient government are obstacles https://t.co/Cd6nC453cF ...

Core Natural Resources (CNR) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.7 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.31. This compares to earnings of $1.96 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non- recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -153.44%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this coal company would post earnings of $1.74 per share when it actually produced a loss of $1.38, delivering a surprise of -179.31%. Over the last four quarters, the company ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its current challenges, particularly in relation to the **anti-involution push** and **social welfare initiatives** introduced by Beijing to address the "3D" challenges facing the country [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply-side Dynamics**: There has been an **uneven rebound in upstream prices** in July, with notable increases in specific sectors: - **Polycrystalline silicon** prices increased by approximately **30% month-to-date (MTD)** from late June. - **Lithium hydroxide** prices rose by about **8%**. - **Coal** prices saw a **4%** increase [2][20]. - **Demand-side Concerns**: The sustainability of the price rebound is contingent on **final demand**. The current recovery in upstream prices may not be sustainable without a corresponding increase in consumer demand, which has been sluggish [3][4]. - **Final Demand Trends**: - The **housing market** and **export recovery** were critical in previous cycles (2015-2018) for successful reflation. However, current indicators suggest a potential moderation in exports, particularly to the US, due to declining restocking demand [4][10]. - **Construction activity** remains weak, with demand for **rebar** and **cement** below 2024 levels, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market and local government financing [7][24]. - **Social Dynamics Indicator**: Recent surveys indicate a decline in sentiment among depositors, with perceptions of the employment situation reaching a record low. This reflects broader economic challenges and aligns with the recent policy shifts aimed at addressing these issues [7][26]. Additional Important Insights - The **July Politburo meeting** emphasized "high quality" urban renewal as a strategy to mitigate the housing market downturn, suggesting limited infrastructure investment support in the absence of decisive stimulus [7]. - The **Social Dynamics Indicator** has shown renewed challenges in Q2 2025, closely tracking with policy moves such as anti-involution initiatives and expanded social welfare [7][26]. - The report highlights that while upstream sectors may experience price increases due to supply constraints, midstream sectors like **petrochemicals** and **construction materials** have shown muted pricing improvements, indicating a lag in demand recovery [3][4]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and its implications for various sectors.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Coal Sector - **Focus**: Coking Coal and Thermal Coal Core Insights 1. **Overproduction Issues**: - 22% of sampled coking coal mines are experiencing overproduction, impacting 26% of their volume [2][3] - 14% of sampled thermal coal mines have overproduction issues, affecting 3% of total capacity [4][7] 2. **Market Dynamics**: - The met coal price is expected to become attractive for imports when it reaches approximately Rmb1300/ton [2][3] - Thermal coal prices are projected to rebound to Rmb670/ton during the summer but may soften to Rmb610/ton by year-end [4] 3. **Government Policies**: - The National Energy Administration (NEA) and local governments are expected to implement moderate execution of overcapacity policies to balance production stability and local economic interests [3] - The tone from the Xinjiang NDRC appears more lenient compared to Henan and Ordos, indicating varying regional approaches to overproduction management [3] 4. **Production and Cost Analysis**: - The all-in cost for most Chinese met coal is between Rmb600-1,000/ton, leading to losses earlier in the year but returning to profitability recently [3] - Current daily output of met coal is approximately 1.9 million tons, which is 5% higher than the year's low but still 10% below the peak of 2.1-2.2 million tons expected in 2024 [3] 5. **Future Projections**: - The thermal coal production target for Shanxi is set at 1.3 billion tons for 2025, with 662 million tons produced in the first half of 2025 [4] - The expert anticipates a smaller volume impact from overproduction in the current cycle, at most 50% of what was seen in the previous cycles [4] Stock Implications - **Company Exposure**: - Among coal companies, Yankuang has the highest exposure to coking coal and coal spot sales, with 75% of its sales being spot sales, making it the most sensitive to coal price fluctuations [5] Additional Considerations - **Risks**: - Key risks include economic conditions, government policies affecting coal prices, and the balance of supply and demand in the coal sector [8] - Potential for higher-than-expected growth in fixed asset investment (FAI) in the coal sector and looser government policies could impact market dynamics [8] Conclusion - The coal sector in China is facing significant challenges with overproduction, but there are opportunities for price recovery and strategic adjustments in response to government policies. Investors should closely monitor these developments, particularly in relation to specific companies like Yankuang, which are more exposed to market fluctuations.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Greater China Materials, specifically in the Asia Pacific region [1] - **Market Sentiment**: The industry view is considered attractive by Morgan Stanley [6] Price Movements and Inventory Changes Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices decreased by 1.5% week-over-week (WoW), with inventories down by 1.2% WoW [2] - **Aluminum**: Prices fell by 1.3% WoW, while inventories increased by 1.5% WoW [2] - **Gold**: Price decreased by 1.4% WoW, settling at US$3,290 per ounce [2] Battery Metals - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Prices for industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose by 9.4% and 8.5% WoW, respectively [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices for industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.5% and 2.1% WoW, respectively [2] Steel - **HRC and CRC Prices**: Shanghai HRC prices increased by 0.9% WoW, while CRC prices decreased by 0.2% WoW [3] - **Rebar**: Prices rose by 2.3% WoW [3] - **Long Steel Inventories**: Increased by 3.3% WoW [3] Cement and Coal - **Cement Prices**: Decreased by 0.6% WoW to Rmb323 per ton [3] - **Coal Prices**: QHD5500 coal prices increased by 0.5% WoW to Rmb665 per ton, with inventories dropping by 10.8% WoW [3] Glass - **Glass Fiber Prices**: Average prices declined by 1.3% WoW to Rmb3,850 per ton [4] - **Float Glass Prices**: Increased by 2.8% WoW to Rmb1,317 per ton [4] Regulatory Environment - **NDRC Initiatives**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is promoting a unified national market and aims to eliminate 'involution-style' competition [8] - **CISA Recommendations**: The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) emphasized the need for regional and product self-discipline, urging enterprises to control production and stabilize prices [8] Analyst Insights - **Analyst Team**: The report includes insights from multiple equity analysts at Morgan Stanley, indicating a collaborative approach to research [5] - **Investment Banking Relationships**: Morgan Stanley has disclosed its investment banking relationships with several companies in the materials sector, which may influence research objectivity [6][18] Stock Ratings - **Coverage Universe**: The report lists various companies within the Greater China Materials sector, with ratings ranging from Overweight to Underweight [62][64] - **Notable Companies**: Companies such as Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. and Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd. are highlighted with their respective ratings [62][64] Conclusion - The Greater China Materials sector is experiencing mixed price movements across various commodities, with regulatory efforts aimed at stabilizing the market. Analysts maintain an attractive outlook for the industry, supported by ongoing price adjustments and inventory management strategies.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China, specifically analyzing the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2023. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Manufacturing PMI Decline**: The NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in July from 49.7 in June, which is below market expectations. The new orders sub-index saw the most significant decrease, dropping to 49.4 from 50.2, indicating a contraction in demand [1][3][10]. 2. **Non-Manufacturing PMI Decline**: The NBS non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.1 in July from 50.5 in June, slightly below market expectations. This decline was primarily driven by a slowdown in the construction sector, which fell notably to 50.6 from 52.8 [1][9][10]. 3. **Adverse Weather Impact**: The weakness in the July PMIs is attributed to adverse weather conditions, including high temperatures and heavy rainfall, which affected construction activity [1][10]. 4. **Trade-Related Sub-Indexes**: The manufacturing new export order sub-index decreased to 47.1 in July from 47.7 in June, indicating a decline in export demand. The import sub-index remained flat at 47.8 [4][8]. 5. **Price Dynamics**: The input cost sub-index increased to 51.5 from 48.4, while the output prices sub-index rose to 48.3 from 46.2, suggesting that deflationary pressures have eased somewhat due to recent increases in commodity prices [8][10]. 6. **Sector-Specific Performance**: Certain sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace equipment, and electronics showed output and new orders sub-indexes above 50, while sectors like chemical raw materials and cement remained below 50, indicating contraction [3][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Employment Sub-Index**: The employment sub-index inched up to 48.0 from 47.9, suggesting a slight improvement in employment conditions despite overall PMI declines [3]. - **Enterprise Size Impact**: The PMI for large enterprises fell to 50.3 from 51.2, while small enterprises saw a decline to 46.4 from 47.3. Medium enterprises, however, experienced a rise to 49.5 from 48.6 [8]. - **Government Policy Influence**: The government's focus on addressing overcapacity and excessive price competition is impacting the manufacturing sector, as indicated by the contrasting trends in output and price sub-indexes [1][10]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call regarding the current state of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China, highlighting the challenges posed by weather conditions and government policies.

A federal judge in Texas largely denied a request by the world’s largest asset managers to dismiss a lawsuit brought by Republican state attorneys general claiming they colluded to reduce coal output https://t.co/OX60cFA8QX ...

A deal that gives trading house Javelin a stake in an Ohio coal fired power plant received approval from the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission https://t.co/r1aroRMCol ...

Core Viewpoint - Ramaco Resources reported a quarterly loss of $0.29 per share, which was worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.22, marking an earnings surprise of -31.82% [1] - The company has shown mixed performance in terms of revenue, with $152.96 million reported for the quarter, surpassing the consensus estimate by 18.31%, but down from $155.32 million a year ago [2] Financial Performance - The company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters [2] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.08 on revenues of $174.19 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$0.49 on revenues of $615.13 million [7] Stock Performance - Ramaco Resources shares have increased by approximately 93.2% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 8.2% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Outlook - The coal industry, to which Ramaco Resources belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 13% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a challenging environment [8] - The performance of Ramaco Resources may be influenced by the overall outlook of the coal industry [8] Competitor Insights - Warrior Met Coal, another company in the coal industry, is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.28 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -120.7% [9] - Warrior Met Coal's revenues are anticipated to be $270.47 million, down 31.8% from the previous year [10]

Making coal great again while choking off renewables will constrain the grid, @liamdenning says. That will raise costs and curtail America's AI ambitions (via @opinion) https://t.co/gCRDzRQdqg ...