有色金属矿采选业
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有色金属周报20251116:美政府重启,流动性改善有助价格表现-20251116
Minsheng Securities· 2025-11-16 06:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several companies as key investment opportunities [6][7]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the end of the U.S. government shutdown and improving liquidity will support price performance in the metals market. It notes that macroeconomic factors, including weak economic data and interest rate cut expectations, will continue to influence metal prices positively [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, while the SW Nonferrous Index rose by 0.20% during the week [3]. - Precious metals like gold and silver saw significant increases, with gold up by 1.91% and silver by 4.51% [3]. 2. Base Metals 2.1 Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index and expectations of interest rate cuts, despite a decrease in import volumes due to operational inefficiencies at Tanzanian ports [4][48]. - Aluminum production capacity remained stable, with domestic supply holding firm. However, demand is expected to weaken as the market transitions from peak to off-peak seasons [4][27]. - The report recommends companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum for investment [4]. 2.2 Energy Metals - The report is optimistic about energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, due to sustained demand from the energy storage sector and electric vehicles. Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply shortages [5]. - Key companies recommended include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [5]. 2.3 Precious Metals - The report anticipates continued upward movement in gold and silver prices, driven by central bank purchases and weakening U.S. dollar credit. It highlights geopolitical tensions as a significant factor influencing precious metal prices [5][80]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Western Gold and Shandong Gold [5]. 3. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price changes for various metals, noting that aluminum prices are expected to range between 21,700 and 22,400 CNY/ton, while copper is projected to fluctuate between 86,000 and 89,000 CNY/ton [28][49]. - Inventory levels for aluminum and copper have shown mixed trends, with some increases in LME stocks for zinc and lead [14][50]. 4. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for several companies, with Zijin Mining projected to have an EPS of 1.21 CNY in 2024, and Huayou Cobalt expected to reach 2.50 CNY [6].
2025年1-9月有色金属矿采选业企业有1372个,同比增长3.31%
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-11-16 01:50
2016-2025年1-9月有色金属矿采选业企业数统计图 数据来源:国家统计局,智研咨询整理 知前沿,问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构,十数年持续深耕产业研究领域,提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力,专注于提供完善的产业解决方案,为您的投资决策赋能。 上市公司:铜陵有色(000630),合金投资(000633),中钨高新(000657),国城矿业(000688), 北方铜业(000737),锌业股份(000751),中色股份(000758),西藏矿业(000762),东方钽业 (000962),安泰科技(000969),中科三环(000970),银泰黄金(000975),罗平锌电 (002114),西部材料(002149) 相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国有色金属行业市场发展现状及竞争格局预测报告》 2025年1-9月,有色金属矿采选业企业数(以下数据涉及的企业,均为规模以上工业企业,从2011年 起,规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入2000万元)为 ...
中国有色矿业(01258):受谦比希东南矿体暂时停产影响 2025年自有矿山铜产量调整为14万吨
智通财经网· 2025-11-14 13:42
Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) reported a serious incident at its subsidiary, China Nonferrous Africa Mining, where a shaft wall suffered damage, resulting in one casualty. The company has taken immediate action to address safety concerns and repair the affected areas [1] Group 1: Incident Details - On June 30, a wall of the shaft at the Qianbixi Southeast mine experienced damage, leading to a temporary suspension of operations [1] - The company conducted an expert assessment and found that the shaft walls had been eroded over time due to water infiltration, despite previous remediation efforts [1] Group 2: Remediation Actions - To ensure long-term safety, the company initiated comprehensive repair work on the shaft walls, including the installation of a new composite wall structure using 20 channel steel and C30 concrete [1] - Repair work on the secondary shaft has been completed, while repairs on the main shaft are ongoing, with an expected completion date in mid-December [1] Group 3: Production Impact - Due to the temporary suspension of operations at the Qianbixi Southeast mine, the company has adjusted its copper production forecast for 2025 from 160,000 tons to 140,000 tons [1]
中国有色矿业(01258.HK)因副井事故停产修复 全年铜产量降至14万吨
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-14 13:41
Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) reported a serious incident at its subsidiary, which resulted in a temporary suspension of operations and adjustments to its production plans for 2025 [1] Group 1: Incident Details - On June 30, a wall failure occurred in the shaft of the Qianbixi Southeast mine, leading to one casualty [1] - Following the incident, the company immediately suspended operations and conducted expert evaluations on-site [1] - Investigations revealed that the shaft walls were damaged due to long-term erosion from water layers, despite prior reinforcement efforts [1] Group 2: Remediation Efforts - The company has initiated comprehensive repair work on the shaft walls to ensure long-term safety [1] - A specific reinforcement plan was developed, including the installation of dense steel rings and filling with C30 concrete to create a composite wall structure [1] - Repair work on the secondary shaft has been completed, while repairs on the main shaft are ongoing, expected to finish by mid-December [1] Group 3: Production Impact - Due to the temporary suspension of the Qianbixi Southeast mine, the company has revised its copper production forecast for 2025 from 160,000 tons to 140,000 tons [1]
锡业股份(000960) - 000960锡业股份投资者关系管理信息20251114
2025-11-14 09:58
Group 1: Company Overview - Yunnan Tin Company has a comprehensive industrial structure integrating exploration, selection, smelting, deep processing, and new material research of non-ferrous metals, primarily producing tin ingots, cathode copper, zinc ingots, and indium ingots [2][3] - As of the end of 2024, the company holds tin reserves of 1.76 million tons and indium reserves of 4,821 tons, ranking first globally in both [2][3] - The domestic and global market shares for tin products reached 47.98% and 25.03%, respectively, in 2024 [2] Group 2: Production and Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total production of non-ferrous metals was 271,000 tons, including 67,700 tons of tin, 96,800 tons of copper, and 105,300 tons of zinc [3] - The company achieved a revenue of 34.417 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.745 billion yuan, up 35.99% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Resource Management and Strategic Development - The company emphasizes resource expansion as a long-term development strategy, focusing on enhancing existing resources and securing new reserves, with an investment in geological research and exploration activities [4] - In 2024, the company discovered additional reserves of 17,600 tons of tin and 34,800 tons of copper [4] Group 4: Industry Trends and Challenges - The global supply of tin is tightening due to declining resource quality in traditional production areas and increasing mining costs, with significant policy changes in Southeast Asia affecting supply [5] - Tin is essential in the renewable energy and electronics sectors, with long-term demand expected to remain strong due to advancements in AI and new production technologies [5][6] Group 5: Supply Chain and Resource Utilization - To address the tightening supply of tin, the company is implementing a dual-channel procurement strategy to stabilize and expand raw material sourcing [6] - The company has initiated research on tailings resource recovery, with operational projects aimed at enhancing economic indicators for tailings re-selection [6]
国家统计局工业司首席统计师孙晓解读10月份工业生产数据
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-11-14 07:03
Core Insights - The overall industrial production in China is stable with significant growth in various sectors, indicating a solid advancement towards high-quality development [1] Group 1: Industrial Production Overview - In the first ten months of the year, the industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous year's growth by 0.3 percentage points [1] - In October, the industrial added value grew by 4.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% after seasonal adjustments [1] - Among the three major sectors, manufacturing increased by 4.9%, while mining and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply grew by 4.5% and 5.4%, respectively [1] - Out of 41 major industrial categories, 29 experienced year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 70.7% [1] - Of the 623 major industrial products tracked, 313 saw an increase in production, representing a growth coverage of 50.2% [1] Group 2: Equipment Manufacturing Sector - The added value of large-scale equipment manufacturing increased by 8.0% year-on-year, accounting for 36.1% of the total industrial output, which is an increase of 1.5 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [2] - All eight industries within equipment manufacturing reported growth, with the automotive and electronics sectors leading at growth rates of 16.8% and 8.9%, contributing 22.8% and 19.3% to the overall industrial growth, respectively [2] - The railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace sectors have maintained double-digit growth since December 2024, with a growth rate of 15.2% in October [2] - High-end equipment products are steadily developing, with production increases of 71.3% for railway locomotives, 21.4% for civil steel ships, and 16.9% for generator sets [2] Group 3: Emerging Industries and Digital Integration - The integration of the real economy and digital economy is deepening, with high-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increasing by 7.2% and 6.7% year-on-year, respectively, both exceeding the overall industrial growth by 2.3 and 1.8 percentage points [3] - Specific sectors such as electronic materials, integrated circuits, and smart vehicle equipment saw substantial growth rates of 35.5%, 33.7%, and 28.4%, respectively [3] - The rapid development of "artificial intelligence+" has led to production increases of 34.0% for servers and 17.7% for integrated circuits; the robotics sector is also thriving, with production of robot reducers and industrial robots increasing by 4.6 times and 17.9%, respectively [3] Group 4: Traditional Industries - The petroleum processing industry saw an 8.1% year-on-year increase in added value, with the biofuel processing sector growing by 19.1%, contributing 1.9 percentage points more than the same period in 2024 [4] - The chemical fiber industry grew by 7.3%, with bio-based materials manufacturing increasing by 26.3%, contributing 13.3 percentage points more than the same period in 2024 [4] - Other traditional industries also showed positive growth, with chemical and coal industries increasing by 7.1% and 6.5%, respectively; non-ferrous and ferrous metal mining grew by 6.2% and 5.9% [4] - The long-term positive conditions and trends for China's industrial economy remain unchanged, although challenges such as insufficient effective demand and pressure on corporate profits persist [4]
有色金属日报 2025-11-14-20251114
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 02:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk appetite is under pressure due to the downgraded probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, but the tight supply pattern of refined copper provides strong support for copper prices. Aluminum prices may rise further due to supply concerns and improved export expectations. Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow aluminum prices. Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but with limited upside. Tin prices are expected to be in a tight balance and show a strong - side oscillation. Nickel prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Lithium carbonate prices need to pay attention to high - level selling pressure. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [2][3][4][5][9][12][13][15][18][19][22][24][27] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rose and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly compared to Monday. The spot import of domestic copper was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term risk appetite is under pressure, but the tight supply of refined copper provides support for copper prices. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is 86500 - 88000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME copper 3M contract is 10750 - 11100 dollars/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell, remaining at a relatively high level. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased, and the spot in the Guangdong region changed from a discount to a premium [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply concerns and improved export expectations may push aluminum prices higher. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21880 - 22200 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2850 - 2900 dollars/ton [5][6] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract rose, the trading volume increased, and the inventory decreased [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost provides strong support, and the demand is average. The price is expected to follow aluminum prices [9] Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index closed slightly lower, and the LME lead price rose. The domestic social inventory increased slightly [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The shortage of raw materials restricts production, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [12][13] Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index closed higher, and the LME zinc price rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [14] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc smelting profit is under pressure, and the inventory accumulation slows down. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but with limited upside [15] Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price rose. The supply is still tight, and the demand from emerging fields provides support [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to go long on dips [18] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The price of nickel pig iron fell, and the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, it is recommended to observe. If the price drops enough or the risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, the output increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rise of lithium - battery stocks drives the futures market, but attention should be paid to high - level selling pressure [22] Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, the inventory remained unchanged, and the import was at a loss [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of overseas ore is expected to increase, and the production reduction expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to observe in the short - term [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract price rose, the inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [26][27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in a weak oscillation due to over - supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to remain weak in the short - term [27]
智造未来——实探科创引领产业升级的企业路径
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-13 17:55
Core Insights - The article discusses how Chinese companies are seizing opportunities in the new technological revolution and industrial transformation, enhancing their independent innovation capabilities and striving for high-quality development [9] Group 1: Chihong Zinc and Germanium - Chihong Zinc and Germanium has transformed from a small mine into one of the world's most comprehensive companies in lead-zinc smelting and resource recovery [21] - The company focuses on "technological innovation, resource security, green low-carbon, and high-end transformation" to enhance traditional industries through intelligent upgrades and strategic extensions into high-value new materials [23] - Chihong Zinc and Germanium has achieved a significant increase in metal recovery rates and reduced smelting costs for zinc products for six consecutive years [21][22] Group 2: Haon Automotive Electronics - Haon Automotive Electronics has become a leader in intelligent perception technology, collaborating with major automotive manufacturers and AI giants [10][12] - The company aims to transition from a "follower" to a "technology leader" through strategic upgrades in its R&D center [17] - In the first half of this year, Haon Automotive Electronics held a market share of 27.3% in the domestic ultrasonic radar supplier market [15] Group 3: Mousse Co., Ltd. - Mousse Co., Ltd. has embraced AI technology since 2015, resulting in a revenue of 121 million yuan from AI products in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of over three times [11][39] - The company has transitioned from a traditional mattress seller to a promoter of healthy sleep culture, focusing on AI and brand expansion [42] - Mousse has invested significantly in R&D, with expenditures rising from 74 million yuan in 2019 to 205 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 22.6% [38]
国城矿业成交额创2020年10月14日以来新高
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-11-13 06:34
(文章来源:证券时报网) 数据宝统计,截至14:00,国城矿业成交额11.63亿元,创2020年10月14日以来新高。最新股价上涨 9.97%,换手率4.32%。上一交易日该股全天成交额为10.64亿元。(数据宝) ...
有色金属日报 2025-11-13-20251113
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The expectation of the US government reopening and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, aluminum may further rise, casting aluminum alloy prices will follow aluminum prices, lead and zinc will run strongly in the short - term but with limited upside, tin will be in a tight - balance state and prices are expected to be strong, nickel should be observed in the short - term, and stainless steel will maintain a weak trend [2][3][6][10][13][15][17][20][30]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The US government's expected reopening and policy easing expectations pushed up precious metals, but the sharp drop in crude oil prices caused copper prices to fall back after rising. LME copper 3M contract rose 0.53% to $10,897/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 87,410 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained flat, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased. Spot premiums and discounts varied in different regions, and the import loss of domestic copper was about 700 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy View**: The expectation of the US government reopening and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. Although some copper mines have resumed production, the supply of copper mines remains tight, and refined copper supply is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term copper prices may continue to fluctuate strongly. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 86,500 - 88,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 10,820 - 11,000 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong but fell back after rising due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. LME aluminum rose 0.23% to $2,886/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,950 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions increased significantly, and domestic inventories changed slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods fluctuated and declined, and the market receiving atmosphere was average [5]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts have raised supply concerns, and domestic inventories are still low. Against the background of the expected easing of global trade tensions and the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut, supply - side disturbances and the improvement of domestic export expectations may push aluminum prices higher. Pay attention to the support of domestic inventories for prices. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,820 - 22,200 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,840 - 2,910 dollars/ton [6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices strengthened, with the main AD2601 contract rising 0.97% to 21,245 yuan/ton. Positions increased, and the volume of transactions expanded. The price difference between AL2601 and AD2601 contracts widened slightly. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 increased, and the inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [9]. - **Strategy View**: The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy has strong support, while the demand - side performance is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [10]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index rose 1.26% to 17,664 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions were 127,400 lots. LME lead 3S rose to $2,072.5/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,325 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 24,700 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 226,700 tons [12]. - **Strategy View**: The smelting profit of primary and recycled lead is good, and the smelter's operating rate is relatively high, but the shortage of raw materials limits the output of lead ingots. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. LME lead has continued to reduce inventory, and the price difference between months has strengthened. The tightening of the near - end and the shortage of raw materials push lead prices to run strongly. SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.05% to 22,704 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions were 227,400 lots. LME zinc 3S fell to $3,065.5/ton. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 22,610 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 70,900 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 35,300 tons. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly [14]. - **Strategy View**: The TC of zinc concentrates continued to decline, the profit of zinc smelting was under pressure, and the operating rate decreased marginally. The accumulation of domestic zinc ingot social inventory slowed down. Some short - position holders of SHFE zinc turned to net long positions. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc increased slightly, and the overseas structural risk eased. The decline in zinc smelting operations and some zinc ingot exports tightened the spot market, pushing SHFE zinc to run strongly in the short - term, but the upside of zinc prices in the surplus cycle is relatively limited [15]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 12, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 298,050 yuan/ton, up 1.92%. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE futures decreased by 126 tons. The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan rose to 279,000 yuan/ton. After the seasonal maintenance of large smelters in Yunnan ended, the operating rate of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded but was still at a historical low due to the shortage of tin ore supply. Although the mining license in Myanmar's Wa State was approved, the tin ore export volume was still far below the normal level. The consumption in traditional fields was weak, but the long - term demand from emerging fields provided support for tin prices, and the operating rate of tin solder enterprises in October showed a slight recovery [16]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight - balance state, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices. The operating range of domestic main contract is 290,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and that of overseas LME tin is 37,000 - 39,000 dollars/ton [17][18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices fluctuated and fell, with the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract at 118,710 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The spot premiums of various brands were stable. The price of nickel ore was stable and strong, while the price of nickel iron accelerated to decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: Recently, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is still significant, and the weak nickel iron price drags down nickel prices. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to increase, it is difficult for nickel prices to rise significantly. However, in the medium - and long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices, and nickel prices may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. If the decline of nickel prices is sufficient (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 85,843 yuan, down 0.23%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.24%. The closing price of LC2601 contract was 86,580 yuan, up 0.05%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 250 yuan [22]. - **Strategy View**: The demand has reached a new high, and the spot is strong. Lithium carbonate fluctuates at a high level. As the peak season is in the middle and late stages, the continuity of downstream raw material demand may be limited. If there is no continuous driving force, pay attention to the selling pressure at high levels. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December and the changes in the equity market atmosphere. The operating range of LC2601 contract is 84,000 - 89,200 yuan/ton [23][24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On November 12, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,842 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading positions increased by 10,000 to 559,000 lots. The spot price in Shandong was 2,780 yuan/ton, at a discount of 7 yuan/ton to the 12 - contract. The FOB price in Australia remained at $320/ton, and the import loss was - 44 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts were 253,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The CIF prices of ore in Guinea and Australia remained stable [26]. - **Strategy View**: The shipment of overseas ore will gradually recover after the rainy season, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production cuts is strengthened. Moreover, the overall non - ferrous sector is strong, so the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to observe in the short - term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,425 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The unilateral positions increased by 12,203 to 205,700 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly. The prices of raw materials such as high - nickel iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased. The futures inventory decreased by 1,566 to 72,091 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1.034 million tons, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 1.90% [29]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel market continues to show a weak and fluctuating trend, mainly affected by the double pressure of oversupply and weak demand. Although the production schedule of steel mills in November has shrunk slightly, the overall output is still at a high level, and the market supply pressure has not been significantly relieved. Terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the trading volume in the trading link is continuously low, and the market activity is not high. The inventory pressure accumulated in the early stage is gradually released, and the inventory - reduction speed slows down, further strengthening the market's wait - and - see sentiment. Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [30].