Asian stocks ended mostly lower on Wednesday, failing to hold onto early gains after a three-day sell-off as investors awaited Nvidia earnings, the release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on October 28-, and the delayed September jobs report. The dollar index managed to hold ground amid fading hopes of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Gold ticked higher as risk-off mood in financial helped buoy safe-haven demand for the precious metal. Oil prices fell on oversupply worries ...

Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The US is facing the steepest tariff barriers since the 1940s, impacting long-established trade ties and leading to a decline in people-to-people interactions, particularly among Chinese students and Singaporean tourists [1][6][29] - Investment pledges from countries like Japan and South Korea amount to $900 billion, but incidents such as immigration raids have undermined trust [1][5] - The US is at risk of isolating itself from a region projected to account for nearly 60% of the global economy by 2050, compared to just 11% for the US [6][29] China's Economic Strategy - China remains a manufacturing powerhouse, with its high-tech sector now contributing over 15% to GDP, up from less than 11% in 2017 [8][9] - The Chinese government is focusing on closing the gap in strategic technologies like semiconductors and AI, with significant investments in future industries [8][9] - Despite tariffs, Chinese firms maintain substantial sales to American importers, estimated at around $1 billion daily [22] Regional Dynamics and Alliances - India and China are working to improve relations, with India recognizing the need for Chinese investment to boost its manufacturing sector [12][13] - Southeast Asian nations are increasingly economically intertwined with China, while also seeking to maintain neutrality amid rising tensions with the US [12][29] - The expanding BRICS group, now including Indonesia, provides China with additional avenues to strengthen ties in the region [16][29] Labor and Immigration Issues - The number of international students entering the US has dropped significantly, with a 19% decrease in August, marking the lowest figures since 2021 [18][29] - Trump's new $100,000 fee on H-1B applications is expected to disproportionately affect Indian workers, who make up two-thirds of these visas [19][29] Investment and Manufacturing Trends - Companies like Apple have managed to secure exemptions from tariffs, while Asian investment pledges to the US are in the hundreds of billions [22][29] - The US is witnessing a shift in manufacturing and investment patterns, with potential Asian capital flowing into the US despite the current trade tensions [22][29] Geopolitical Considerations - As China's influence grows, neighboring countries are increasingly seeking US support as a counterbalance, leading to military agreements such as nuclear submarine deals with Australia and South Korea [24][29] - The US's approach has led to a perception of it as a rival or bully, which could have long-term implications for its role in the Asian economy [27][29]

Core Insights - Amazon's stock experienced a decline of over 4% due to regulatory developments in the EU and an analyst downgrade [1][3] - The EU has classified Amazon and 18 other tech companies as "critical" technology partners, placing them under stricter regulatory supervision [2][3] Regulatory Developments - The European Union's designation of Amazon as a "critical" technology partner indicates increased scrutiny from regulators, which may impact operational flexibility [2][3] - EU regulators are known for being more aggressive in limiting the power of tech giants compared to their U.S. counterparts [3] Analyst Insights - Rothschild Redburn's analyst Alex Haissl downgraded Amazon's stock from "buy" to "neutral," setting a new price target of $250 per share [3] - Haissl expressed concerns regarding the capital intensity and pricing power associated with generative AI, which he believes could affect tech companies' margins [4] Financial Metrics - As of the latest trading day, Amazon's stock price is $222.58, with a market capitalization of $2,489 billion [6] - The stock's 52-week range is between $161.38 and $258.60, indicating significant volatility [6] Market Position - Despite the regulatory challenges and analyst downgrade, Amazon's strong foundation in technology and resources may mitigate potential negative impacts on its stock [6][7] - The company's success in the cloud business, Amazon Web Services, supports its position as a potential buy candidate [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - US stocks experienced muted movements with the Nasdaq Composite rising by 0.14%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average remained roughly flat following a tech-led sell-off [1] - Investors are anticipating Nvidia's third-quarter earnings, which are expected to influence the stock's movement by up to 7% in either direction, potentially impacting the overall S&P 500 rally driven by AI optimism [2] Group 2: Big Tech Concerns - There are growing concerns regarding Big Tech's significant spending on AI development, leading to declines as high-profile investors offload their holdings [3] - Companies like Amazon are reportedly increasing their borrowing to fund AI initiatives, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of Fed minutes is expected to provide insights into the economy and future monetary policy, with traders divided on the likelihood of further rate cuts in December [4] - The September jobs report, delayed due to the government shutdown, is anticipated to influence market views on economic conditions [4] Group 4: Consumer Spending Insights - Earnings reports from major retailers are expected to shed light on US consumer spending as the holiday season approaches, with Target cutting its earnings outlook and indicating a weak holiday season, while Lowe's reported positive sales [5]

Market Overview - US stock futures showed a slight increase after a tech-led selloff, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both up by 0.2% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures remained relatively unchanged [1] - The previous trading day saw the Dow and S&P 500 experience their fourth consecutive decline, while the Nasdaq Composite fell for the fifth time in six sessions [2] Earnings Expectations - Investors are anticipating Nvidia's third-quarter earnings report, which is expected to influence the AI trade significantly [3] - Options trading suggests Nvidia's stock could fluctuate by up to 7%, potentially impacting its market value by over $300 billion [3] - Quarterly results from major retailers like Target, Lowe's, and TJX Companies are also expected, which may provide insights into US consumer spending ahead of the holiday season [4] Economic Indicators - The first major economic data release post-government shutdown is the delayed September jobs report, which is anticipated to influence Federal Reserve policy expectations [5] - Traders are divided on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December based on the upcoming labor figures [5] Company-Specific News - Constellation Energy's stock rose by 3% after the US Department of Energy announced a $1 billion loan to restart a nuclear reactor project in Pennsylvania, which is contracted to supply power to Microsoft’s data centers [5]

Market Overview - Stocks rebounded on Wednesday following a tech-led sell-off, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.4%, the S&P 500 increasing nearly 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 0.2% [1] Nvidia Earnings - Investors are anticipating Nvidia's third-quarter earnings, expected to influence the stock by up to 7% in either direction, marking a critical moment for the S&P 500 rally driven by AI growth optimism [2] Big Tech Spending Concerns - There are growing concerns regarding Big Tech's significant investments in AI, leading to declines as major investors offload shares. Companies like Amazon are increasing borrowing to support AI initiatives amid a potential halt in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The upcoming release of Fed minutes is crucial for understanding economic conditions and future monetary policy, with traders divided on the likelihood of further rate cuts in December [4] Consumer Spending Indicators - Earnings reports from major retailers are expected to provide insights into US consumer spending as the holiday season approaches. Target has lowered its earnings outlook, indicating a weak holiday season, while Lowe's reported positive sales [5]

Market Overview - Stocks experienced a decline, primarily driven by concerns over high AI valuations, with Nvidia dropping 2% and down 10% for the month, affecting other major tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft [1] - Home Depot reported disappointing earnings and reduced guidance, contributing to negative market sentiment, leading to all three major indexes closing in the red and the S&P 500 on a four-day losing streak [2] - The odds of a December rate cut have decreased from over 90% to approximately 50%, indicating uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3] Performance of Assets - Despite the broader market downturn, gold rebounded strongly from the $4,000 level, silver increased by 1.4%, and bitcoin recovered after a brief dip, suggesting a shift towards precious metals and cryptocurrencies [3][8] - The domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) remained flat, while the international TTI closed in the red, reflecting mixed performance across different markets [8][9] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile until economic data indicates a balance between growth and inflation, which would alleviate stagflation concerns and support potential rate cuts by the Fed [4]

Tech Stocks Performance - Major tech stocks experienced significant declines, with Nvidia falling over 1%, Amazon down 3%, and Microsoft decreasing by 2% [1][20] - The S&P 500 could potentially see an 8% to 9% decline, influenced by upcoming earnings reports and employment data [1][20] Nvidia Earnings Concerns - Nvidia's stock has dropped 9% this month ahead of its third-quarter results, raising concerns about high tech valuations and AI fundamentals [2][20] - Analysts expect Nvidia to report earnings of $1.25 per share (up 54% year-over-year) and revenue of $55 billion (up 57% year-over-year) [8][20] AI Investments and Market Sentiment - Microsoft and Nvidia are investing billions in Anthropic as part of a $30 billion AI spending deal, but this has not positively impacted tech stocks as expected [5][20] - Investors are questioning when companies will start generating real profits from AI investments, indicating that significant returns may not materialize in the near term [5][20] Home Depot Earnings - Home Depot shares declined after the company missed earnings expectations and lowered its full-year outlook [7][20] Meta Antitrust Case - Meta won an antitrust trial against the Federal Trade Commission, with the court ruling that the FTC failed to prove Meta currently holds monopoly power [9][10][20] Market Trends - 18 S&P 500 stocks reached new 52-week lows, while five stocks hit all-time highs [11][19][20] - The Russell 2000 index rose by 0.8%, contrasting with a 0.2% decline in the S&P 500, although it remains down more than 1% for the week [15][20]

Market Outlook - Markets are anticipating Nvidia's earnings report for insights on the AI outlook, along with earnings from Target and Walmart to gauge consumer spending health [1] - The US Nov NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose by 1 to a 7-month high of 38, surpassing expectations of no change at 37 [1] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - US weekly initial unemployment claims were reported at 232,000 for the week ending October 18, with continuing claims rising by 10,000 to a 2-month high of 1.957 million [2] - Richmond Fed President Barkin's dovish comments regarding layoffs by large companies and inflation expectations supported stock market recovery [2] - The 10-year T-note yield fell by 2 basis points to 4.12% following ADP's report of an average job loss of 2,500 per week in the four weeks ending November 1 [2] Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes extended declines, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 reaching 1-month lows, driven by weakness in technology stocks [3][4] - Amazon.com and Microsoft saw significant declines of over 4% and 2% respectively after a downgrade by Rothschild & Co Redburn [3][10] - Home Depot's stock fell over 6% after cutting its full-year earnings guidance, indicating reduced consumer spending on home improvements [3][12] Earnings Season Insights - Q3 corporate earnings season is nearing completion, with 82% of S&P 500 companies exceeding forecasts, leading to a 14.6% increase in earnings, significantly above the expected 7.2% [6] - Home Depot reported Q3 comparable sales growth of only 0.2%, below the consensus of 1.36%, and adjusted its full-year operating margin estimate downwards [12] International Market Trends - Overseas stock markets also experienced declines, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.88%, China's Shanghai Composite down 0.81%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 down 3.22% [7] Interest Rates and Bond Market - December 10-year T-notes closed up by 4.5 ticks, with the yield falling to 4.121%, driven by stock market weakness and labor market concerns [8] - European government bond yields showed mixed results, with the 10-year German bund yield decreasing by 0.6 basis points [9]

Market Overview - Major stock indices experienced significant declines, with the Dow dropping 498.50 points (1.1%) to 46,091.74, the Nasdaq falling 275.23 points (1.2%) to 22,432.85, and the S&P 500 decreasing 55.09 points (0.8%) to 6,617.32, marking their lowest closing levels in a month [1] - The weakness in stocks was exacerbated by a decline in Nvidia shares, which fell 2.8% after a 1.8% drop on Monday, as investors awaited the company's quarterly results [2] Company-Specific Insights - Nvidia's upcoming quarterly results are highly anticipated, with potential implications for the market amid concerns about an AI bubble; even a slight disappointment could lead to broader market sell-offs [3] - Home Depot's stock fell 6.0% following weaker-than-expected third-quarter earnings and a reduction in full-year earnings guidance, contributing to the overall decline in the retail sector [6] Sector Performance - The NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index saw a significant drop of 3.7%, with semiconductor and software stocks also experiencing notable weakness, impacting the tech-heavy Nasdaq [5] - The Dow Jones U.S. Retail Index declined by 2.4%, reflecting considerable weakness in the retail sector [5] - Conversely, oil stocks rose, with the NYSE Arca Oil Index increasing by 1.4% due to a sharp rise in crude oil prices [6] Economic Data - The Commerce Department reported a 1.4% increase in new orders for U.S. manufactured goods in August, rebounding from a 1.3% decline in July, aligning with economist estimates [4]