Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to companies such as Caterpillar (CAT), CNH Industrial (CNH), and Cummins (CMI), while some companies like AGCO are rated "Neutral" [5][137]. Core Insights - The report suggests that global equipment markets may bottom in 2025, particularly for agricultural machinery, with a cautious optimism for recovery in truck and construction markets [12][18]. - The "Big Beautiful Bill" is viewed positively for machinery fundamentals, with provisions supporting equipment demand and domestic industrial activity [29][33]. - Tariff impacts are expected to have a significant influence on demand and margins, with potential upside for companies in the second half of 2025 as tariff rates stabilize [21][23]. Key Machinery Themes - Agricultural machinery has outperformed other sectors, attributed to a cycle trough in global demand [6]. - Machinery stocks are currently not pricing in tariff concerns, although demand uncertainty remains prevalent [8]. - The report anticipates a decline in North American large agricultural sales in 2026 due to high new machine prices and elevated used inventories [16]. Construction - The outlook for non-residential construction spending remains stable, supported by mega project backlogs growing at a ~17% CAGR from 2024-2029 [38]. - Contractor profit margins have improved slightly, but project cancellations due to tariffs have increased significantly [45][48]. - The report expects global construction equipment sales volume to bottom in 2025, with a recovery anticipated in 2026 [50]. Mining and Oil & Gas - The mining equipment outlook is stable, with solid expectations for mining capex and miner EBITDA, driven by strong commodity prices [61]. - The oil and gas sector faces challenges with falling crude prices, leading to a weak near-term outlook for upstream spending [67]. NA Rental - The rental equipment market is expected to see steady growth, with total URI rental revenue growth projected at 4.0% in 2025 [73]. - The industry has consolidated, with the top 10 players now accounting for ~40% of the market, leading to better pricing discipline [78]. - NA rental penetration is above pre-pandemic levels, with specialty rental areas identified as key growth opportunities [80]. Ag Equipment - The US grain market is stabilizing but remains relatively depressed, with high new machinery prices impacting farmer sentiment [85][90]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in North American large agricultural sales in 2026, with a potential recovery in 2027 [92]. - Positive trends are noted in Europe and South America, with expectations for growth in agricultural sales in those regions [95][98]. Commercial Vehicles - The commercial vehicle market shows weak freight fundamentals, with spot rates remaining depressed [111]. - Class 8 tractor inventories are in reasonable shape, but overall market conditions suggest a weak outlook [113]. - The report indicates that pre-buying expectations for 2026 may be overly optimistic due to ongoing market weakness [120]. Short Cycle - Industrial PMIs have retreated, indicating a choppy macro backdrop, but there is cautious optimism for recovery in 2026 [126]. - Demand remains stable, but recent order traction may have been influenced by tariff pre-buying [128]. - Companies in the automation space are showing positive forward commentary, indicating potential growth despite uncertainty [131].

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 05 July 2025 Japan Equity Strategy Last-minute tariff negotiations and Upper House election: What if reciprocal tariffs of 35% take effect? Japanese equities might see a spike in short-term volatility next week, depending on the outcome of US-Japan trade negotiations. With the July 9 negotiation deadline fast approaching, the market expects 8–10 countries to reach an agreement with the US, but if the US and Japan fail to reach a deal and reciprocal tariffs on Japan ar ...

Investment Rating - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Cummins Inc. (CMI) are both rated as "Buy" with price targets of $418 and $431 respectively [6][7][14]. Core Insights - The report indicates a positive outlook on the sustainability of data center demand, projecting that CAT and CMI will deliver approximately 6-7 GW of backup generator supply this year, against an incremental data center computing capacity of around 13 GW [3]. - CAT is expected to benefit from turbine prime power sales, with CAT Titan 130 turbines specified in regulatory filings for various projects, potentially generating revenue of approximately $250-300 million based on 15 turbines [3]. - CMI is investing $150 million to expand its machining capacity, while CAT is investing over $700 million to upgrade its facilities, indicating high ROI potential for both companies [3]. Summary by Sections Data Center Demand and Supply - CAT and CMI are projected to supply around 6-7 GW of backup power, with data centers historically seeking to back up over 100% of their power needs [3]. - The estimated backup power requirements for 2025 range from 6.6 GW (50% coverage) to 15 GW (115% coverage) based on 13 GW of net data center additions [3]. Company Investments - CMI's investment of $150 million focuses on expanding machining capacity, while CAT's investment of over $700 million includes productivity improvements and facility upgrades [3]. - The report highlights CAT's emerging opportunity in turbine sales, with specific projects already incorporating CAT turbines [3]. Revenue Projections - The revenue from CAT turbines specified in regulatory filings is estimated to be around $250-300 million based on the number of turbines involved in various projects [3].

$1 Billion Illinois Firm Thrives Thanks To Its Cozy Caterpillar Relationships https://t.co/ADANrQ1ruD https://t.co/6HgVJTFwl0 ...

China’s key construction machinery sales jumped in the first half, indicating improving demand across the economically crucial sector https://t.co/z9vhnCqEXB ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan Japan Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Japanese corporate sector**, focusing on the findings from the **June BOJ Tankan survey** regarding business sentiment and corporate earnings forecasts. Key Points and Arguments Impact of US Tariffs - The June BOJ Tankan indicates that **US tariffs have not significantly dampened corporate sentiment**, with a business conditions diffusion index (DI) for large manufacturers remaining steady at **13 points**, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of **10 points** [1][4] - However, corporate earnings forecasts predict a **10% drag on net profit**, particularly affecting the **manufacturing sector**, especially **automobiles** and other processing industries [1][4] Corporate Earnings Forecasts - The FY2025 net profit growth forecast for large enterprises is revised to **-5.3%**, down from **-1.3%** in the March survey, aligning with the broader TSE Prime constituents' forecast of **-5.8%** [1][4] - **Manufacturers** lowered their profit growth forecast to **-9.8%**, while **non-manufacturers** raised theirs to **-0.8%** from **-2.0%** [1][4] Sales and Capital Expenditure (Capex) - Both manufacturers and non-manufacturers have increased their sales forecasts, with capex plans revised sharply upward to **+11.5% YoY** overall for large enterprises, driven by investments in **semiconductors**, **automation**, and **power transmission/distribution** [1][5] - Capex growth for manufacturers is projected at **+14.3%**, while non-manufacturers expect **+9.9%** [5] Foreign Exchange and Inflation Outlook - The corporate forex estimate for FY2025 is set at **¥145/$**, indicating a **4% YoY strengthening of the yen**, which is expected to negatively impact EPS by approximately **2 percentage points** [5][30] - The inflation outlook has slightly decreased, with companies expecting general prices to rise by **2.4%** in one year, down from **2.5%** previously [5][31] Sector-Specific Insights - Business conditions DI worsened in sectors more exposed to US tariffs, such as **automobiles** and **machinery**, while sectors like **materials** (paper & pulp, steel, oil & coal) and **construction** showed improvement [4][5] - The market consensus appears more cautious than company outlooks in sectors like **steel**, **services**, and **paper & pulp**, while being relatively optimistic for **electric & gas utilities**, **real estate**, and **communications** [4][5] Overall Corporate Sentiment - Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, corporate earnings remain resilient, particularly in domestic non-manufacturing sectors, which aligns with the investment strategy focusing on domestic demand sectors and potential upside in **semiconductors** and **machinery** [1][5] Additional Important Information - The report highlights the **limited impact of tariffs** on business conditions, with a flat DI for manufacturers and slight deterioration for non-manufacturers, which was in line with market expectations [4][5] - The report also notes that the **FY2025 TOPIX consensus EPS** has seen downward revisions in overseas demand sectors, particularly **automobiles**, which have been lowered by **18%** over the past three months, yet still shows a modest **+3.3% YoY profit growth forecast** as of end-June [4][5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Japanese corporate sector and its outlook amidst external pressures.

Core Insights - The industrial sector has shown resilience in 2025, with two major companies increasing their dividends and another likely to follow suit [1][2] Group 1: Sector Performance - As of June 20, the S&P 500 industrials sector is the best-performing sector, with a total return of approximately 8.4%, outperforming utilities by around 1% [2] - In contrast, the overall S&P 500 has a total return of less than 2% [2] Group 2: Dividend Increases - Delta Air Lines (DAL) announced a 25% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to $0.1875 per share, resulting in an annual dividend of $0.75 and a yield of nearly 1.6% [5][6] - Caterpillar (CAT) raised its quarterly dividend by 7% to $1.51 per share, marking 31 consecutive years of dividend increases, with an expected annual payout of $6.04 and a yield of just under 1.7% [9][10] - Airbus Group has not officially declared a dividend increase but has raised its payout ratio range to 50%, suggesting potential future increases [12][13][14] Group 3: Market Position and Analyst Sentiment - Delta Air Lines is the most valuable stock in the passenger airlines industry, with a market capitalization of approximately $31 billion [5] - Caterpillar is valued at around $170 billion, making it the most valuable U.S. stock in the machinery industry [9] - Airbus is one of the world's five largest stocks in the aerospace and defense industry, indicating its significant market position [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Volvo CE, indicating confidence in its growth potential within the machinery sector [27]. Core Insights - Domestic demand for trucks is accelerating, while construction machinery demand is moderating due to factors such as replacement policies and seasonal effects [2][3]. - The growth for construction machinery may have peaked in Q1 2025, with a notable slowdown observed in recent months [3][6]. - Sany expects a 20% year-on-year growth in domestic demand for excavators for the full year, despite a challenging competitive landscape [10][12]. - The electrification of machinery is gaining traction, with significant implications for exports, particularly to Europe [14][16]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - There is a divergence in domestic demand, with trucks experiencing growth while construction machinery sales are moderating due to replacement policies and seasonal factors [2][3]. - Sany reported a moderation in machine fleet operating rates and utilization hours, indicating a slowdown in demand [6]. Exports - Demand for exports is stronger in Southeast Asia and Africa, while the CIS region shows weakness [9]. - Sany's excavator export volume increased by 16% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with a focus on Asia and Africa [12][13]. Technology and Electrification - The focus on electrification is rising, with Chinese OEMs aiming to penetrate European markets, which are more challenging under traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) standards [14][16]. - Weichai and Sinotruk anticipate a ceiling for electrification penetration in heavy-duty trucks at 25-30% due to infrastructure constraints [16]. Competitive Landscape - Pricing pressure has resurfaced in the industry, particularly for large-sized machines and electrified heavy-duty trucks (eHDTs) [17][18]. - The emergence of a "shared excavators" business model is noted, contributing to monthly sales volume but not considered real demand [20].

Investment Rating - The report provides an "Overweight" (OW) rating for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the market [9][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights opportunities arising from the trade war and China's stimulus measures in the near term [5]. - Medium-term growth is expected to be driven by the "China+1" strategy, post-war reconstruction, and advancements in robotics [6]. - Long-term stability is supported by structural growth drivers within the industry [7]. Company Summaries - Shenzhen Inovance is positioned to benefit from the industrial automation (IA) cycle inflection [9]. - Weichai Power is anticipated to experience growth as China's heavy-duty truck (HDT) market enters an upcycle [9]. - Evergreen Marine is expected to gain from supply chain adjustments [9]. - SANY and XCMG are set to benefit from increasing demand for construction machinery [9]. - Sanhua and Leader Drive are identified as key players in the humanoid robot sector [9]. - C SF Holdings and ICT are likely to benefit from further supply chain adjustments [9]. - Weichai's market share in large-bore engines is projected to grow significantly [9]. - TTI is sustaining growth through innovation and a shift towards cordless tools [9]. - CRRC is benefiting from high-speed train demand and the phase-out of diesel engines [9]. - ST Engineering is expanding internationally amid geopolitical tensions [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to AstraZeneca, placing it on the Conviction List, while other companies like Roche are rated "Sell" [2]. Core Insights - The Utilities sector is entering a new era characterized by growing power demand and earnings, driven by the modernization of the grid and increased energy security needs. Europe may require EUR 2 trillion to modernize its power system after years of underinvestment [1]. - The SERD class of breast cancer therapies is highlighted as a key focus area, with AstraZeneca's camizestrant positioned favorably for long-term growth, potentially worth over $15 billion by 2035 [2]. Summary by Sections Utilities Sector - The Utilities sector is experiencing a resurgence with power demand growing after 15 years of decline, and companies are returning capital to shareholders. Key players identified as 'Electrification Compounders' include EDPR, RWE, SSE, National Grid, Iberdrola, E.ON, Enel, and Engie [1]. - The recent Spanish blackout has sparked discussions on the need for significant investment in the power system, with estimates suggesting EUR 2 trillion is needed for modernization [1]. Pharmaceutical Sector - AstraZeneca's camizestrant is seen as a critical driver for the company's growth, especially in the context of a large eligible patient population exceeding 500,000 globally. The SERD class of therapies could generate substantial revenue by 2035 [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming data presentations as potential catalysts for market recognition of AstraZeneca's unique positioning in breast cancer treatment [2].