大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 【生猪日报】供应压力增加 猪价继续回落 今 日 昨 日 变 化 今 日 昨 日 变 化 河南（0） 13.36 13.50 -0.14 山西（-100） 12.81 13.00 -0.19 湖北（0） 13.09 13.25 -0.16 辽 宁 12.90 13.11 -0.21 安徽（200） 13.50 13.63 -0.13 吉林（-300） 12.89 13.04 -0.15 湖南（100） 13.12 13.22 -0.10 黑龙江 12.84 12.86 -0.02 四川（-100） 12.87 13.17 -0.30 福建（500） 14.49 14.49 0 江西（100） 13.18 13.32 -0.14 广东（500） 14.52 14.52 0 山东（200） 13.36 13.56 -0.20 广西(-200) 12.59 12.59 0 江苏（500） 13.59 13.77 -0.18 云南（-600） 13.07 13.17 -0.1 河北（100） 13.17 13.4 -0.23 贵州（-300） 1 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the stories of individuals who are revitalizing rural areas and embodying a deep connection to their homeland, showcasing their courage, love, and responsibility [1] - It features a specific case of Wang Shuaibin, who utilizes "black technology" to raise black goats, leading to the development of a multi-million dollar industry for local farmers [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the transformation of agricultural practices, illustrating how innovative approaches can turn challenges into profitable opportunities, as seen with a young girl from Chaoshan who promotes "treasure fruits" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in near-term futures is supported by the recent rise in spot prices, market expectations for excessive culling in late September and October, and technical factors such as gap openings and previous support levels, aided by speculative funds [5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In September, while production capacity peaks are expected, the reduction in capacity will take time, and only excessive culling in October and November can improve the current oversupply situation [5]. - The government has been promoting capacity reduction in the pig industry since June, but the effects have not been significant. For eggs, while no explicit measures have been announced, environmental policies may restrict the expansion of large-scale poultry farms [6]. - The sentiment for culling has slowed down recently, and if spot prices exceed expectations, market confidence may recover, potentially leading to slower culling rates and exacerbating supply pressures post-holiday [6]. Spot Price Trends - Since September, spot prices have been driven up by demand from schools and food processing companies preparing for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with the average price of eggs in major production areas rising to 3.58 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.43 yuan/kg from the beginning of the month [9]. - The inventory levels in production and circulation have decreased, with production inventory at 0.45 days and circulation inventory at 0.73 days as of September 12 [9]. Production and Culling Data - As of the end of August 2025, the number of laying hens increased by 2% month-on-month and 7% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.3172 billion [18]. - The sales of chick orders have decreased, indicating a slowdown in replenishment sentiment since June, with expectations for a slight decline in the number of laying hens in September [18]. - The average culling price for hens was 4.65 yuan/kg as of September 12, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the beginning of the month, with culling volumes showing some divergence in data but generally indicating a faster culling pace [24]. Profitability and Market Sentiment - As of September 9, the feed price was 2.71 yuan/kg, and the profit from egg production was 0.05 yuan/kg, indicating a recovery in profitability due to rising egg prices [23]. - The sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations of a potential increase in culling volumes around the Mid-Autumn Festival, depending on the spot price trends [24]. Futures Market Analysis - The near-term and main contracts are closely aligned due to the delivery of eggs in October, with recent spot price rebounds leading to a narrowing basis [31]. - The market sentiment appears bullish, but the underlying supply-demand conditions may not support sustained price increases, indicating a potential for price corrections [31].

（编辑 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 牧原股份9月15日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司高度重视投资者回报，未来会 结合当年的市场行情、现金流情况、资本开支计划等方面动态调整分红比例，为投资者提供长期、稳 定、可持续的现金分红，增强投资者的获得感。同时，公司也会根据发展阶段及实际情况，综合运用多 种方式做好投资者回报，与投资者共享发展成果。 ...

生猪周报. 生猪特刊 2025/09/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：罗鑫海 Z0021565 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advancements in agricultural technology and practices in Heyuan, showcasing the integration of automation and smart farming techniques to enhance productivity and efficiency in both crop and livestock production [1][10]. Group 1: Agricultural Technology Advancements - The introduction of automated farming equipment, such as unmanned harvesters and smart greenhouses, has significantly improved farming efficiency, allowing for precise operations and year-round production [12][54]. - The use of intelligent temperature control and hydroponic systems in greenhouses has transformed traditional farming methods, enabling consistent quality and higher yields of fruits and vegetables [48][54]. - The implementation of advanced agricultural machinery has led to a dramatic increase in operational efficiency, with some tasks being completed at speeds up to 100 times faster than traditional methods [33][13]. Group 2: Livestock Production Innovations - The construction of multi-story pig farms has optimized land use, allowing for a higher density of livestock while improving disease prevention measures [75][76]. - The integration of smart farming technologies in livestock management has enabled a single worker to manage up to 2,000 pigs, doubling the efficiency compared to traditional farms [79][90]. - The livestock sector in Heyuan has seen a significant increase in production value, with pork output reaching 127,900 tons in 2024, marking an 8.2% year-on-year growth [70][71]. Group 3: Processing Industry Enhancements - The introduction of automated production lines in food processing has led to substantial efficiency gains, with some processes achieving a 60-fold increase in output compared to traditional methods [124][109]. - The establishment of advanced production facilities for local specialties, such as oil tea and rice noodles, has improved product quality and increased production capacity, with annual outputs reaching 3 billion yuan [110][128]. - The use of AI and automated systems in quality control processes is set to further enhance the precision and efficiency of food production in the region [129][130].

资金面上看，今日猪肉概念板块获主力资金净流入4.57亿元，其中，20股获主力资金净流入，12股主力 资金净流入超千万元，净流入资金居首的是傲农生物，今日主力资金净流入1.99亿元，净流入资金居前 的还有温氏股份、得利斯、牧原股份等，主力资金分别净流入1.86亿元、6405.00万元、5477.44万元。 | | 物 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 001201 | 东瑞股 | 2.94 | 3.63 | 1238.35 | 9.33 | | | 份 | | | | | | 000048 | 京基智 | 1.51 | 3.55 | 1235.33 | 3.85 | | | 农 | | | | | | 000702 | 正虹科 | 2.01 | 7.12 | 947.38 | 6.20 | | | 技 | | | | | | 002567 | 唐人神 | 1.80 | 4.66 | 844.34 | 2.51 | | 000735 | 罗牛山 | 0.76 | 3.54 | 442.80 | 1.66 | | 600073 | 光明肉 | 0.4 ...

编辑：吴郑思 新华财经北京9月15日电 国家级生猪大数据中心监测显示，2025年9月15日，31个省（自治区、直辖 市）外三元生猪价格3涨20跌8平，呈稳中下跌趋势。当日全国生猪均价为13.61元／公斤，较昨日下跌 0.09元／公斤。 综合分析来看，供应端压力显著，集团场加速出栏，散户跟风抛售。需求端疲软，屠企压价采购居多， 白条走货滞缓。市场看空情绪浓厚，但养殖端抗价惜售情绪渐起，预计明日价格继续下跌。 另外，外三元生猪价差监测显示，今日全国21组大区间平均价差约0.56元／公斤，较昨日上涨0.02元／ 公斤，低于平均调运成本0.49元／公斤。 ...

广东畜牧+预制 菜赛道如 何"飞"？"媒体 ＋"培训第三期 安排！_南方+_ 南方plus 好消息准时到！ "我要飞"！ "媒体＋"赋能广 东畜牧产业高质 量发展培训第三 期 9月17日下午14 点30分 如约而至 前两期 超百万人次在线 蹲守 依然是干货满满 欢迎关注 学习热情挡都挡 不住 新的一期 依然是行业大咖 坐镇 亮点抢先看 畜牧预制菜在产 业端作为稳定器 与增值器，通过 标准化生产，平 滑养殖周期波 动，将初级农产 品转化为高附加 值商品，提升产 业天花板，为广 东畜牧业提供穿 越猪周期的确定 性增长路径。想 知道广东畜牧在 预制菜赛道如何 乘风破浪？南方 农村报"老阮说 菜"负责人阮定 国将作《广东畜 牧之预制菜晋级 之路（一）》主 题分享。 农业加工工业 化、中央厨房及 冷链物流技术升 级，为预制菜发 展提供有力支 撑。从产品类型 到全产业链布 局，预制菜产业 格局正逐步完 善。预制菜市场 空间有多大？广 东省农业科学院 产业与农产品加 工研究所副所长 余元善带来《预 制菜市场前景与 产业发展展 望》。 京津冀作为高消 费力市场，对优 质畜牧产品需求 旺盛，如何依托 广东生态养殖优 势打造差异 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that farms have high enthusiasm for slaughtering, strict transportation inspections, and low enthusiasm for second - fattening. Slaughterhouses can easily acquire supplies, resulting in sufficient pork production capacity [2][20] - The demand side indicates that there is no obvious positive news at the terminal. Slaughterhouses have no intention of making frozen products, maintain a high fresh - sales rate, with little change in slaughter volume, and pork consumption continues to be weak [2][20] - Overall, the slaughter pressure on the breeding side remains high, terminal demand has not improved, there is little second - fattening, supply exceeds demand, pig prices have reached a new low in recent years, and prices are more likely to fall than rise [2][20] Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis - Farms have high enthusiasm for slaughtering, strict transportation inspections, and low enthusiasm for second - fattening, leading to smooth acquisition of supplies by slaughterhouses and sufficient pork production capacity [2][20] 2. Demand Situation Analysis - There is no obvious positive news at the terminal. Slaughterhouses have no intention of making frozen products, maintain a high fresh - sales rate, and there is little change in slaughter volume, with pork consumption remaining weak [2][20] 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided text 4. Market Outlook - The supply side has high slaughter enthusiasm from farms, strict transportation inspections, and low second - fattening enthusiasm, resulting in sufficient supplies. The demand side has no obvious positive news, high fresh - sales rate, and little change in slaughter volume. Supply exceeds demand, pig prices are at a new low in recent years, and prices are more likely to fall than rise [2][20]