Summary of the Conference Call on China Consumer Sector Outlook 2026 Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China consumer sector** with an emphasis on stock picking strategies for 2026E, balancing "value" vs "growth" investments [1][11] - Anticipation of a less inflationary environment and low expectations for immediate consumption boosts from government policies [1][11] Key Investment Themes 1. **Shift Towards Experience/Service Consumption** - Consumers are increasingly valuing emotional experiences over basic needs, seeking happiness and self-expression [2][23] - 66% of respondents in a survey indicated a willingness to spend more for special moments [23] - Notable examples include Pop Mart's affordable entertainment options and Haidilao's casual dining as social venues [2][23] 2. **Focus on Well-being** - Increased spending on wellness, including health, fitness, and nutrition [3] - Growth potential identified in sportswear (Anta), health supplements (H&H), beauty care (Mao Geping), and tourism (Atour) [3] 3. **Rising "Silver" Economy** - The aging population is creating demand for leisure and cultural experiences [4] - Industries like tourism (Atour, H World), sportswear (Anta), and health supplements (H&H) are expected to benefit [4] 4. **Emerging New Channels** - Growth in omni-channel operations and new offline channels such as membership stores and snack specialty chains [5] - Food companies like Eastroc and Nongfu are adapting to these changes [5] 5. **Multi-brand Strategy** - Industry leaders are expanding brand portfolios to meet diversified consumer demands [6] - Companies like Anta and Midea are revising growth targets to ease channel inventory pressure [6] Top Buys in Consumer Sector - **Consumer Discretionary**: Anta (2020.HK), Pop Mart (9992.HK), Haidilao (6862.HK), Atour (ATAT.O), Midea (300.HK) [1][14] - **Consumer Staples**: CR Beer (291.HK), Eastroc (605499.SS), Mao Geping (1318.HK) [1][14] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of sustainable profit growth amid a dynamic marketplace [1][11] - The analysis includes a pecking order of various consumer sub-sectors, highlighting the relative strengths of companies within those sectors [1][14] - The report also notes the potential for companies like Li Ning and Haitian to outperform in case of a better-than-expected recovery in consumption [1] Conclusion - The China consumer sector is poised for a transformation driven by changing consumer preferences towards emotional and experiential consumption, with significant opportunities identified across various industries and companies. The focus on well-being, the aging population, and the emergence of new channels are critical factors influencing investment strategies for 2026E [1][2][3][4][5][6]

Core Insights - Estee Lauder Companies Inc. has identified fragrance as a significant driver of organic sales growth, achieving a 13% organic net sales increase in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, contributing to an overall organic sales growth of 3% for the quarter [1][8] Fragrance Performance - The luxury segment is the primary driver of Estee Lauder's fragrance portfolio, with brands like Le Labo and Tom Ford experiencing strong consumer demand, particularly in Mainland China [2] - New product launches and extensions from brands such as Jo Malone London and KILIAN PARIS have also bolstered category performance [2] Distribution and Innovation - To enhance fragrance growth, Estee Lauder has expanded its distribution and innovation capabilities, opening 14 new freestanding fragrance stores in key markets and launching a Fragrance Atelier in Paris to develop next-generation luxury fragrances [3] Future Outlook - Management anticipates that fragrance will continue to be a faster-growing category within prestige beauty for fiscal 2026, providing a stable growth source amid mixed broader category trends [4] Competitive Landscape - Coty Inc. positions fragrance as its core growth engine, highlighting strong demand for prestige scents and new launches, with the U.S. prestige fragrance market growing in mid-single digits [5] - e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. treats fragrance as a complementary category, focusing primarily on growth in color cosmetics while selectively expanding into fragrance [6] Financial Performance - Estee Lauder's shares have increased by 9.3% over the past month, outperforming the industry growth of 8.5% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 44.19X, higher than the industry average of 30.07X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 43.1% for fiscal 2026 and 35.9% for fiscal 2027 [10]

Core Insights - ClearBridge Investments reported a strong but volatile performance in US equities for Q4 2025, with the S&P 500 Index returning 2.7% and the Russell Midcap Growth Index declining 3.7% [1] - The ClearBridge Growth Strategy achieved its third consecutive quarter of outperformance through a balanced and highly active share approach, maintaining disciplined portfolio management and opportunistic capital allocation [1] Company Highlights - E.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (NYSE:ELF) is highlighted as a key stock, closing at $87.02 per share on January 9, 2026, with a one-month return of 13.96% but a 52-week decline of 30.32% [2] - E.l.f. Beauty, Inc. has a market capitalization of $5.19 billion [2] - The company faced pressure in sales growth due to management's decision to halt shipments to retailers that were slow to implement tariff-related price increases, although consumption trends for the brand remain healthy [3] Market Position - E.l.f. Beauty, Inc. was held by 43 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, indicating stable interest among hedge funds [4] - Despite its potential, the company is not considered among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with some analysts suggesting that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential [4]

Group 1 - Dollar General Corporation (DG) has seen a 5.4% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days and has a dividend yield of 1.7%, compared to the industry average of 0.9% [1] - LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LTM) has experienced a 4.2% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days and has a dividend yield of 1.6%, compared to the industry average of 0.0% [2] - The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) has seen a 1.4% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is recognized as a strong investment opportunity, particularly highlighted by recent upgrades from financial analysts, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance [2][3]. Analyst Upgrades - Wells Fargo raised its price target for Estée Lauder from $95 to $111 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating, reflecting updated models across various sectors [2]. - Raymond James upgraded Estée Lauder to Strong Buy from Market Perform, setting a new price target of $130 and including the stock in its Analyst Current Favorites list, citing a transition from narrative to execution in the company's turnaround strategy [3]. Company Strategy - The CEO outlined a strategy focused on expanding market share and increasing sales through the development of new brands, targeting younger consumers globally, and customizing products to fit local cultural preferences [4]. - The company aims to leverage the rising global middle class as a significant growth driver through 2030, which is central to its long-term plans [4]. Market Focus - Estée Lauder is in the midst of a turnaround, aiming to rebalance growth by increasing focus on the Americas and emerging markets, while still maintaining a presence in China despite recent consumer spending pullbacks [5].

Core Insights - e.l.f. Beauty's shares dropped 39.4% in 2025, reflecting slowing growth and high earnings multiples, leading to poor stock performance [1] - The stock is down 60% from its all-time highs, indicating significant market challenges [1] Revenue Growth - e.l.f. Beauty has historically gained market share in beauty categories, but revenue growth began to stagnate in 2025 [2] - The company expects to generate $200 million in revenue from its acquisition of Rhode in the 2026 fiscal year, projecting overall growth of 18%-20%. However, organic revenue growth is anticipated to be only 3%-4% this fiscal year, a notable slowdown [3] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for e.l.f. Beauty has decreased from 68% to 66%, suggesting the need for inventory discounts to stimulate sales, which is a negative indicator for the business [4] - Despite a 14% revenue growth last quarter, operating income fell to $7.7 million due to increased marketing expenses, highlighting declining earnings amid slowing revenue growth [6] Valuation and Debt - e.l.f. Beauty's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remains high at 62, even after a significant stock price drop, raising concerns about its valuation given the slowing organic revenue growth [6] - The company has incurred $600 million in debt to finance the $1 billion acquisition of Rhode, with only $100 million in free cash flow, indicating a long repayment timeline [7]

Core Insights - L Catterton has entered a strategic partnership with Mao Geping to support the latter's international expansion in high-end retail channels [1] - An equity investment fund will be established to focus on acquisitions and strategic investments in the global high-end beauty sector [2] - Mao Geping's revenue increased by 31.3% to 2.58 billion renminbi, with net profit rising by 36.1% to 670.4 million renminbi for the first half of 2025 [3] Company Developments - Mao Geping's brand includes over 400 stock keeping units across color cosmetics, skin care, and fragrances [3] - Key products such as the Luxury Caviar Cushion and Luminous Light Veiling Pressed Powder each generated over 200 million renminbi in sales [4] - Founders Mao and Wang hold a combined 45% stake in the company [4] Shareholder Actions - Mao, Wang, and four other controlling shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3.5%, approximately 1.5 billion Hong Kong dollars, due to personal financial needs [5] - Proceeds from the share reduction will be allocated for supply chain investments and personal living standards [5] Previous Investments - L Catterton has previously invested in other beauty brands in China, including Hi!Papa and Blankme [6]

Core Viewpoint - Lin Qingxuan has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as the "first high-end domestic skincare stock," with a market capitalization exceeding HKD 11.6 billion, positioning it among the top 10 domestic listed cosmetics companies [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Highlights - Lin Qingxuan has established a closed-loop and traceable value chain from research and development to retail, which serves as its core technological barrier [4]. - The brand has demonstrated strong product efficacy and user loyalty, resulting in a dedicated customer base [4]. - The founder, Sun Laichun, embodies a long-term commitment to excellence in the camellia oil sector, reflecting a long-termism spirit [4]. - As a high-end domestic skincare brand, Lin Qingxuan exhibits healthy profit margins and growth potential, showcasing resilience across market cycles [4]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages - Lin Qingxuan possesses genuine "source authority" over raw materials, controlling the entire process from plant resources to extraction technology, unlike many domestic brands that rely on external suppliers [4]. - The company has built a "technical moat" through continuous investment in data, patents, clinical trials, and processes, which is rare in the Chinese skincare industry [5]. - Lin Qingxuan has developed a unique Eastern aesthetic and brand narrative, using the red camellia flower to create a comprehensive brand identity that resonates culturally with consumers [5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The focus for Lin Qingxuan is to "stay true to its original intention and amplify its advantages," with hopes to deepen its commitment to the red camellia as a core ingredient and increase R&D investment [5]. - The company aims to leverage its listing to expand both domestic and international markets, showcasing the appeal of Chinese plant-based skincare to global consumers [5]. - There is an ongoing discussion about potential collaboration to promote the internationalization of domestic brands and contribute to the overall upgrade of Chinese consumer brands [5].

Group 1 - L'Oréal has successfully priced a bond offering totaling €1.750 billion, consisting of three tranches [1][2] - The proceeds from the bond will be utilized for general corporate purposes, including financing an additional 10% stake in Galderma [1] - The bonds are expected to receive ratings of AA (Stable) from S&P and Aa1 (Stable) from Moody's, and will be traded on Euronext Paris starting January 12, 2026 [2] Group 2 - The bond offering includes a €650 million 2-year floating rate bond with a coupon of Euribor 3M + 20bps p.a., a €500 million 3-year fixed rate bond with a coupon of 2.5% p.a., and a €600 million 6-year fixed rate bond with a coupon of 2.875% p.a. [6] - L'Oréal generated sales of €43.48 billion in 2024, supported by a workforce of over 90,000 employees and a diverse geographical presence [4] - The company has been recognized as the most innovative company in Europe by Fortune magazine in 2025, highlighting its commitment to innovation across various industries [5]

Core Insights - Estee Lauder is positioned well to continue its trend of beating earnings estimates in upcoming reports [1] Earnings Performance - Estee Lauder has a strong history of surpassing earnings estimates, averaging a 56.25% beat over the last two quarters [2] - In the most recent quarter, the company reported earnings of $0.32 per share, exceeding the expected $0.16 per share by 100.00% [3] - For the previous quarter, Estee Lauder reported $0.09 per share against an estimate of $0.08 per share, resulting in a surprise of 12.50% [3] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Estee Lauder have been increasing, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP indicating potential for another earnings beat [6] - The Zacks Earnings ESP for Estee Lauder is currently +3.82%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about its near-term earnings potential [9] - The company's Zacks Rank is 2 (Buy), further supporting the likelihood of an earnings beat [9] Earnings ESP Insights - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [7] - The Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, reflecting the latest analyst revisions [8]