插播： 1月8日，中车株洲所、阳光电源、弘正储能、海辰储能、海尔新能源、融和元储、华储电气、天合光能、星星充电、星纪云能、汇能科技等超30 家企业出席【行家说储能开盛年会】，报名欢迎联系行家说储能 辛迪Cindy：15989092696 （微信同号） 过去问： "每kWh价格多少？"——追求初始成本最低。 如今问： "能看10-20年的电池衰减曲线？"——追求全生命周期收益最优。 据行家说储能最新消息，在摩根士丹利最新研报中，明确指出：在储能这一生命周期长达 20年的资产领域，电芯衰减控制能力的重要性远超单次采购的每 kWh价格， 决定项目的 盈亏 。 这与此前 136 号文出台强调的核心观点一致： "只拼装机不看收益"的旧时代 已经过去， 现在投储能，赚钱才是硬道理， 全生命周期的 TCO（总拥有成本）和IRR（内部收益率）成了生死线，光靠低价抢单的玩法彻底失灵。 2025年，储能行业经历一场深刻的逻辑变革，行业共识或已彻底转向： 行家说储能深入研读该报告数据后，得出一个可能令部分从业者警觉的结论：在储能项目长达 20年的账簿上，电芯衰减是那个写下收益关键数字的笔。换而 言之，初始价格可能决定项目能否启动， ...

Group 1: Metal Market Performance - The main contracts for copper, gold, silver, and platinum futures reached historical highs, with lithium carbonate futures breaking through 130,000 yuan/ton [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector showed strength, with leading stocks Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum hitting historical highs, with market values of 886.8 billion yuan and 421.3 billion yuan respectively [1] - Copper prices are expected to continue rising due to ongoing adjustments in global copper inventory, supply shortages, and expectations of mid-term easing from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold remains in an upward channel but is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations; future trends depend on the interplay between declining real interest rates and a weakening US dollar [3] - Silver shows stronger short-term certainty due to a high gold-silver ratio indicating potential for correction, alongside increasing demand from industrial sectors like photovoltaics [3] Group 3: New Energy Sector Dynamics - The new energy sector, particularly the lithium battery supply chain, solar energy, and energy storage, is experiencing a rebound, with leading stocks such as Sungrow Power Supply and BYD seeing significant gains [4] - The surge in lithium carbonate futures and production adjustments by major cathode material manufacturers are key catalysts for the rebound in the new energy sector [5] - The lithium battery supply chain is emerging from a clearing phase, with demand growth exceeding expectations and signs of supply tightness in certain segments, indicating a recovery in the overall industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market showed positive momentum with significant gains in the new energy sector, indicating a favorable outlook for related industries [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 26, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets experienced upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.33% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.6% [1]. - The new energy sector saw a rise of 0.93%, while the blade battery sector increased by 1.66%, and the Huawei automotive sector grew by 0.2% [1]. - As of 10:30 AM, the New Energy ETF (516160.SH) rose by 2.31%, and Sunshine Power surged by 8.11% [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The energy storage sector is benefiting from a significant global demand increase, with a price turning point and expanding demand scale expected to reverse profitability in battery and material segments [2]. - The photovoltaic industry is optimizing supply-demand dynamics through capacity regulation, which is expected to enhance price recovery and corporate profitability [2]. - The wind power sector is experiencing multiple benefits, including stabilized domestic turbine prices and expanded growth opportunities through international strategies [2]. - The electric equipment sector is driven by the development of global AI data centers and investments in grid construction, maintaining demand stability [2]. - The gas power industry is witnessing high demand for gas turbines, supported by favorable market conditions [2]. - Policy guidance is enhancing the industry by promoting non-electric utilization of new energy to address consumption issues, leading manufacturers to shift towards a full-chain operational model [2]. - The New Energy ETF (516160.SH) tracks the CSI New Energy Index, which comprehensively covers the entire industry chain, making its cost-effectiveness noteworthy [2].

Group 1 - The "stock-futures linkage" effect is significant, with major futures contracts for copper, gold, silver, and platinum reaching historical highs, and lithium carbonate futures surpassing 130,000 yuan/ton [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is strong, with leading companies Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum both hitting historical highs in stock prices, with market values of 886.8 billion yuan and 421.3 billion yuan respectively [1] - The lithium battery supply chain is gaining strength, driving a rebound in the new energy sector, with leading stocks such as Sungrow Power Supply, Molybdenum, and BYD experiencing significant increases [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal sector is rising, with precious and industrial metals also showing upward trends [2][3] - Specific stocks in the industrial sector, such as Guocheng Mining and Jiangxi Copper, have seen substantial increases, with Guocheng Mining up by 10.01% and Jiangxi Copper up by 9.97% [4] - The copper market is expected to see continued upward pressure due to ongoing adjustments in global copper inventory and supply shortages, with forecasts indicating a potential price increase [6] Group 3 - The new energy sector is rebounding, driven by the rise in lithium battery supply chains, photovoltaics, and energy storage, with stocks like Enjie and BYD showing strong performance [10] - Two main catalysts for the rebound include the significant rise in lithium carbonate futures and the recent announcements of production cuts by major cathode material manufacturers, which are expected to stabilize prices [10] - The lithium battery supply chain is emerging from a clearing and destocking phase, with demand growth remaining unexpectedly high, indicating a recovery in the overall industry [11]

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly focused on investment opportunities for 2026 as the A-share market approaches the end of 2025, with sectors like metals, TMT, and power equipment performing well, while dividend stocks and real estate are under pressure [1] Group 1: Global Economic Environment - The global macroeconomic landscape is expected to show positive changes in 2026, with the U.S. likely to adopt more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, potentially increasing the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade [4] - The anticipated fiscal expansion in the U.S. may require a low-interest-rate environment, which could improve global liquidity and stabilize the external environment for the A-share market [4] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies - The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2025 has set a policy direction of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," indicating a focus on quality and efficiency improvements [5] - Industrial enterprises are at the bottom of the inventory cycle, with a narrowing decline in PPI suggesting an approaching recovery phase for corporate profits, as evidenced by a 3.2% year-on-year growth in net profit for all A-shares in Q3 2025 [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities for 2026 - The A-share market is expected to remain structurally driven, with five key areas for investors to focus on: 1. AI Super Cycle: Continued growth in domestic and international computing power chains, with a focus on new technology iterations and the gaming industry [9] 2. High-end Manufacturing Overseas: Attention on sectors like energy storage and lithium batteries, as well as heavy-duty vehicles and engineering machinery that offer growth potential [11] 3. Strategic Resource Revaluation: Long-term focus on precious and industrial metals, with particular attention to energy and lithium carbonate showing signs of stabilization [11] 4. Frontier Technology Breakthroughs: Ongoing interest in industries such as robotics, solid-state batteries, and quantum computing [11] 5. New Consumption and Innovative Pharmaceuticals: Focus on sectors with solid fundamentals in consumer and technology spending, as well as innovative medical devices [11] Group 4: Market Liquidity - The degree of asset allocation migration towards equity markets is still in its early stages, with significant room for growth as indicators remain at historical lows [10] - Institutional investors, including insurance funds and bank wealth management products, are expected to become important sources of marginal capital in 2026, further enhancing market liquidity [10]

Group 1 - The success of films in the Chinese market, such as "Ne Zha" and "Zootopia 2," highlights the significant influence of China's consumer market on global box office performance, with "Ne Zha" grossing 15.9 billion yuan globally and "Zootopia 2" contributing approximately 539 million USD from China, nearly double that of North America [2] - China's domestic market, with a population of 1.4 billion, has the potential to create a modern industrial system comparable to that of Europe, the US, and Japan, as stated by Li Xiangqun from Hejun Consulting [3] - The retail sales total in China increased from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of 5.5%, positioning China's retail market at approximately 80% of the US's total, but with a purchasing power that exceeds the US by 1.6 times [4][5] Group 2 - China maintains its position as the world's largest consumer market, with significant growth in sectors such as online retail, automotive sales, and home appliances, all leading globally [5] - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port has led to a surge in consumer spending, with duty-free shopping reaching 1.1 billion yuan in the first week post-closure, marking a year-on-year increase of 54.9% [5] - The CMF report indicates that China's unique market characteristics, including its comprehensive industrial categories and manufacturing capabilities, provide a competitive edge in global markets, making it a critical player in the ongoing geopolitical landscape [6][8] Group 3 - The "new three items" in China's economy, including electric vehicles and solar energy, have not only led global sales but have also transformed the competitive landscape of the automotive industry and renewable energy sectors [7] - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic focus for economic development, aiming to enhance consumer spending and investment [7][8] - The establishment of a stable business environment and a unified market is essential for realizing the potential of China's large market, which requires strong top-level planning to overcome regional economic barriers [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the launch of the world's first ultra-high temperature heat pump energy storage technology, "Shu Nuo," by the State Power Investment Corporation, emphasizing its significance in the context of China's dual carbon goals and the urgent need for long-duration energy storage solutions [2][3]. Group 1: Technology Overview - The "Shu Nuo" technology represents a breakthrough in long-duration energy storage, transitioning from an optional to a necessary component in energy transformation [3]. - The technology has achieved a system configuration, core equipment, and control technology with complete independent intellectual property rights, establishing a heat pump energy storage technology system [3][7]. - The pilot system has a capacity of 1 MW and can store 4 MWh of energy, with performance tests confirming that all core parameters meet or exceed design specifications [4][7]. Group 2: Advantages of "Shu Nuo" - Compared to traditional energy storage technologies, "Shu Nuo" offers significant advantages, including high flexibility in deployment, with no reliance on specific geographical conditions [5]. - The system maintains a cycle efficiency of over 65%, with stable efficiency across different loads, and can store heat at temperatures above 560°C and as low as -60°C [5]. - The energy density of the system can reach 80-120 kWh/m³, significantly surpassing conventional compressed air energy storage, allowing for over ten times the energy capacity in the same space [5]. Group 3: Application Scenarios - The technology is applicable in various scenarios, including high-quality combined heat and power generation, coupling with large-scale renewable energy bases, coal, nuclear power, and high-energy-consuming industries [5][11]. - It addresses issues related to the consumption of large-capacity renewable energy, reduces curtailment of wind and solar power, and enhances the flexibility of traditional power sources [11]. - The heat pump energy storage technology aligns with China's current energy development trends and is expected to play a crucial role in the construction of a new power system and ensuring stable power system operations [11]. Group 4: Future Development - The State Power Investment Corporation plans to continue investing in research and development in the heat pump energy storage field, promoting the integration of source, grid, load, and storage [11]. - The successful pilot project marks a significant step towards the industrialization of long-duration heat pump energy storage technology [7].

文 | 中关村储能产业技术联盟 近日 ，甘肃省能源局印发《关于加强新型储能项目管理有关事项的通知》。通知对强化储能项目备案管理、落实国家不再强制配储政策、科学引导 新型储能发展布局、持续优化新型储能接网服务四个方面做出详细规定。 一、强化储能项目备案管理 规范储能备案管理 ：各市（州）能源主管部门要指导各县强化新型储能相关政策的宣传解读， 引导备案企业科学开展投资收益分析和经济性测算 ，有序开展储能项目备案工作，防止盲目备案行为。 优化存量备案项目 ：加强摸排梳理，对已备案未开工项目，指导项目业主深化投资收益分析和经济性测算， 支持具备建设条件的项目尽早开工 ； 对不具备建设条件、"备而不建"的项目及时清理。 建立项目退出机制： 项目 并网投运前不得转让、买卖开发权，不得擅自变更建设规模及内容 ，备案后2年内未开工建设或未办理相关手续的项 目，经提醒仍无实质性进展的，备案信息将被移除，备案文件自动失效。 二、落实国家不再强制配储政策 对核准（备案）文件中明确配建储能且电网企业已于本通知印发之日前出具单体接入系统方案评审意见的新能源项目（不包括"千乡万村驭风行 动""千家万户沐光行动"项目），项目业主要通过自建 ...

文 | 国家发展和改革委员会 国家发展改革委办公厅 工业和信息化部办公厅 国家能源局综合司关于印发《国家级零碳园区建设名单（第一批）》的通知 二、各地区发展改革委、工业和信息化主管部门、能源局要积极支持本地区国家级零碳园区建设，在 资金安排、要素保障、技术支持、金融服务等 方面给予必要支持 ， 推动绿电直连、新能源就近接入增量配电网等绿色电力直接供应模式在国家级零碳园区落地 ，鼓励和支持相关园区因地制宜 开展技术创新、政策创新、商业模式创新。 发改办环资〔2025〕1082号 各省、自治区、直辖市及新疆生产建设兵团发展改革委、工业和信息化主管部门、能源局： 按照《国家发展改革委 工业和信息化部 国家能源局关于开展零碳园区建设的通知》（发改环资〔2025〕910号）要求，经园区申报、地方推荐、 专家评审、部门会商等程序，确定了国家级零碳园区建设名单（第一批）， 共纳入52个园区。 现予公布，并就有关事项通知如下： 一、各地区发展改革委、工业和信息化主管部门、能源局要会同有关方面加强对建设名单内园区的指导，督促有关地市、园区和单位切实承担建设 国家级零碳园区的主体责任，按照国家级零碳园区指标要求扎实编制建设方案， ...

2025年最火的行业，非储能莫属。储能产业链一扫过去三年的低价内卷之态，大部分环节都出现了涨价潮。 然而，华夏能源网注意到，即使全产业链"涨声雷动"，央企电芯集采价格仍然在下跌，已经逼近年度最低价。 例如，12月10日，在中国华能的电芯集采中，第一中标候选人楚能新能源报出了0.295元/Wh的超低价。这一价格恐怕不能让电 芯厂商欢欢喜喜过年关了。 为何全产业链涨价，但央企电芯集采价格仍不断走低？央企电芯集采的低价态势会一直持续下去吗？ 电芯集采屡现超低报价 2025年，随着储能行业的周期反转，全产业链供需偏紧，价格出现上涨。 上游材料环节，自6月以来，碳酸锂期货主力合约从5.84万元/吨低点一路升破10万元/吨，涨幅超过85%；电解液一个月内价格翻 倍；六氟磷酸锂一个半月时间涨幅超过200%；VC添加剂最高涨幅超过300%；近日，还有部分磷酸铁锂正极材料企业发出涨价 通知…… 电芯环节处在材料环节的下游，也很早就开启了上涨行情。InfoLink数据显示，280Ah及314Ah储能电芯的均价，在5月触底后， 6月小幅回升至0.29元/Wh，此后一路上行，10月站稳0.3元/Wh，截至11月20日，均价已升至0. ...