PresentationJeff EdwardsMD & Head of Investor Relations Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Schwab's 2026 Winter Business Update. This is Jeff Edwards, Head of Investor Relations. I'm joined in Westlake today by our President and CEO, Rick Wurster; as well as our CFO, Mike Verdeschi. During our time together this morning, the team will review 2025, a year where the business delivered growth across all fronts and discuss the growing set of opportunities we see to help clients even more in 2026 and beyond. ...

Core Insights - SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is transitioning to a phase where operating leverage is becoming a significant driver of its financial performance, following years of heavy investment in product development and member acquisition [1][4] - The company is experiencing revenue growth at a faster pace than expense growth, indicating a shift towards sustainable profitability rather than merely focusing on growth metrics [2][8] Revenue and Expense Dynamics - SoFi's operating leverage is enhanced by an improved revenue mix, with increased fee-based income and cross-sold financial services reducing reliance on traditional lending spreads [3][8] - As more members utilize multiple products, customer acquisition costs per dollar of revenue decrease, which supports margin expansion [3] Future Outlook - The presence of operating leverage suggests that SoFi can potentially grow earnings at a faster rate than revenues without necessitating aggressive cost reductions, which could shift investor focus towards the scalability of profitability [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SOFI's 2025 earnings has been increasing, indicating positive market sentiment [10] Peer Comparison - Compared to LendingClub (LC), which has a tighter link to credit cycles and fewer cross-selling opportunities, SoFi demonstrates greater structural scalability and margin expansion potential [5] - Upstart (UPST) operates with a technology-led model but lacks the diversified ecosystem that SoFi possesses, making it more sensitive to macroeconomic shifts [6] Valuation Metrics - SoFi's stock has declined by 6.3% over the past three months, slightly better than the industry's decline of 7.5% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 42X, significantly higher than the industry's 22.5X, indicating a premium valuation [9]

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings Inc has seen a stock increase of approximately 30% over the past year, with analysts projecting a further upside of 30-40%, despite concerns raised by Kerrisdale Capital regarding the sustainability of this growth [1][2]. Growth and Credit Fundamentals - Kerrisdale Capital describes Affirm as a "Buy Now, Cry Later" company, suggesting that its rapid growth is masking deteriorating credit fundamentals, driven by aggressive lending to weaker borrowers at high interest rates [2][3]. - Affirm's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) has grown at a compound rate of over 30% since 2022, but this growth is linked to lending practices that may not be sustainable [3]. Revenue and Loan Yields - The average loan yields for Affirm have exceeded 30%, with a significant portion of revenue derived from high-APR products, which Kerrisdale argues does not democratize credit but rather exploits financially vulnerable consumers [4]. Risk Management Concerns - Kerrisdale estimates that Affirm is leveraged approximately six times, with loan loss reserves only at 1%-2% of GMV, which is insufficient given that normal loss rates can be around 6%-7% [5]. - If labor markets weaken and delinquency rates rise, the financial situation could deteriorate rapidly, leading to stalled growth and increased credit costs [6]. Valuation Risks - Kerrisdale warns that at current stock levels, there is little room for disappointment, suggesting that in a stress scenario, Affirm's stock could approach book value, indicating significant downside potential from current prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Province has achieved significant financial milestones during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on supporting the real economy while ensuring financial safety and stability [1][2]. Financial Performance - Jiangsu has maintained the highest new loan volume in the country for four consecutive years, with a total RMB loan balance reaching 28.25 trillion by the end of 2025, reflecting an average annual growth of 12.8% from 2021 to 2025 [3][8]. - The province's social financing scale has consistently ranked among the top in the nation, with an average annual increase of RMB 3.35 trillion from 2021 to 2024 [3]. Support for Real Economy - Jiangsu has introduced 20 policies to enhance financial support for high-quality development of the real economy, including various financial products like "Small Micro Loans" and "Sutong Loans" [2]. - The province has established a comprehensive government financing guarantee system, with the balance of financing guarantees exceeding RMB 1.16 trillion [2]. Capital Market Development - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," Jiangsu has seen the addition of 259 new domestic listed companies, leading the nation, with total direct financing reaching RMB 6.97 trillion, a 61.95% increase from the previous five-year period [6][7]. - The number of companies with a market value exceeding RMB 100 billion has expanded to 11, with three technology companies achieving this milestone [7]. Private Sector Support - Jiangsu has prioritized the development of the private economy, with 226 new private companies listed domestically, accounting for over 87% of new listings [8]. - The average interest rate for new loans to private enterprises is at a historical low of 3.25%, with a total loan balance for private enterprises around RMB 8 trillion [8]. Financial Innovation and Reform - The province has established a modern financial system, including the formation of Jiangsu Rural Commercial Bank and the first public fund management company in the region [5]. - Jiangsu has implemented various financial reforms and innovations, including over 200 new financial products tailored for technology and innovation [5].

Core Viewpoint - Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending December 2025, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for January 28, and better-than-expected results could lead to a stock price increase, while disappointing results may cause a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings is $2.83 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 3.4%, while revenues are projected to be $3.69 billion, up 4.2% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.17% higher, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Raymond James Financial is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +0.67%, suggesting a bullish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with a positive Earnings ESP indicating a higher likelihood of an earnings beat [8][9]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have historically produced positive surprises nearly 70% of the time [10]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Raymond James Financial exceeded the expected earnings of $2.7 per share, achieving actual earnings of $3.11, resulting in a surprise of +15.19% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [14]. Conclusion - Raymond James Financial is viewed as a strong candidate for an earnings beat, but investors should consider additional factors before making investment decisions [17].

Corporate Performance - Netflix (NFLX) stock declined after quarterly results failed to impress investors, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards earnings reports [5] - S&P 500 companies are experiencing the worst share-price reactions on record despite earnings beats, suggesting a challenging environment for corporate performance [5] Market Reactions - US stocks rebounded on Wednesday following a significant selloff, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 each increasing by over 1% [1] - The dollar strengthened against the euro, reflecting market reactions to President Trump's comments on Greenland and ongoing trade tensions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Block & Leviton is investigating Wealthfront Corp. for potential securities law violations following significant net deposit outflows and disclosures regarding the CEO's stake in a new business venture [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Wealthfront reported $208 million in net deposit outflows, a stark decline from the previous year's $874 million in inflows [2]. - The company's shares fell more than 15% on January 13, indicating a negative market reaction to the financial disclosures [2]. Group 2: Legal Investigation - Block & Leviton is looking into whether Wealthfront committed securities law violations and may pursue legal action to recover losses for affected investors [4]. - Investors who have lost money on their Wealthfront investments are encouraged to contact Block & Leviton for potential recovery options [3][5]. Group 3: Whistleblower Information - Individuals with non-public information about Wealthfront are invited to assist in the investigation or report to the SEC under the whistleblower program, with potential rewards of up to 30% of any successful recovery [6]. Group 4: Firm's Reputation - Block & Leviton is recognized as a leading securities class action firm, having recovered billions for defrauded investors and representing many top institutional investors [7].

Group 1 - Manulife Financial Corporation will release its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results on February 11, 2026, after market close [1] - A live webcast and conference call will take place on February 12, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. (ET) to discuss the results [1] - The archived webcast will be available on Manulife's investor relations website following the call [2] Group 2 - Manulife Financial Corporation is a leading international financial services provider with global headquarters in Toronto, Canada [3] - The company operates as Manulife in Canada, Asia, and Europe, and as John Hancock in the United States, offering financial advice and insurance [3] - As of the end of 2024, Manulife had over 37,000 employees and served more than 36 million customers [3]

Core Insights - Financial Recovery Technologies (FRT) has announced a strategic partnership with State Street to enhance the custody bank's class actions program globally [1][2] - The collaboration aims to leverage FRT's technology and expertise to improve class action filing and recovery solutions for State Street's clients [1][2] Company Overview - FRT is a leading global provider of securities class action recovery services, serving over 2,500 institutional clients worldwide [3][4] - The company is headquartered near Boston, MA, with additional offices in London, Sydney, and New York [3] Partnership Details - The partnership is designed to provide innovative solutions that enhance transparency, operational efficiency, and governance outcomes for clients [2] - FRT's class action portal includes features such as an Executive Dashboard, custom filtering, and real-time case alerts to support transparency throughout the lifecycle of each case [2][5] Technology and Services - FRT's platform maximizes recoveries through advanced eligibility analysis, claims management, and fund recovery [5] - The recent acquisition of Skematic allows FRT to offer a centralized, automated compliance management system, replacing manual workflows [5][6] State Street Overview - State Street Corporation is a major provider of financial services to institutional investors, with $53.8 trillion in assets under custody and/or administration and $5.7 trillion in assets under management as of December 31, 2025 [7][8] - The company operates in over 100 geographic markets and employs approximately 52,000 people globally [7]

Group 1: Fund Launch and Strategy - Galaxy is launching a $100 million hedge fund in Q1 2023, taking both long and short positions as Bitcoin experiences a decline from its October peak [1] - The fund will allocate up to 30% of its assets in crypto tokens, with the remainder invested in financial services stocks influenced by digital asset technologies and regulations [1] - The hedge fund represents a strategic pivot for Galaxy amid increasing volatility in digital asset markets [4] Group 2: Investment and Market Sentiment - The fund has secured $100 million in investments from family offices, high-net-worth individuals, and larger institutions, with potential for additional commitments [2] - The mix of tokens and financial services stocks in the fund is seen as a prudent investment strategy, focusing on successful crypto tokens with real-world use cases [3] - Current market sentiment is turning bearish, with a 70% chance predicted for Bitcoin's next move to reach $100,000, down from 84% earlier in the week [7] Group 3: Market Conditions and Influences - Bitcoin is trading around $88,375, reflecting a 3.1% decline on the day and a 7.1% drop over the past week [4] - The market is influenced by external factors, including trade tensions and potential tariffs, which have contributed to Bitcoin's recent price drop from $95,000 [6] - Despite the bearish sentiment, there remains a bullish outlook on Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana, particularly in the context of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [5]