证券之星消息，10月9日旅游零售板块较上一交易日下跌2.67%，中国中免领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3933.97，上涨1.32%。深证成指报收于13725.56，上涨1.47%。旅游零售板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601888 | 中国中免 | 69.66 | -2.67% | | 35.59万 | | 24.86 Z | | 代码 名称 主力净流入 (元) 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) 游资净占比 散户净占比 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601888 中国中免 | -3.38亿 | -13.58% | 1.31亿 | 5.29% | 2.06亿 | 8.30% | | 学历日十六石,八丁学历书日中国 门/十分 女 女 下 中 中 八 小 | | | | | | | 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of value return in investments, emphasizing that there are two primary ways for a company's value to return: price return and profit growth [3][4]. Price Return - Price return occurs when a company's stock price reverts to its intrinsic value, regardless of market speculation. For instance, a company valued at 10 yuan may be speculated to 30 or 50 yuan, but without performance growth, it will eventually return to around 10 yuan [3][4]. - An example is Guizhou Moutai, which peaked at 2600 yuan in February 2021, corresponding to a market value of 3.25 trillion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 69 based on 2020 net profit of 46.6 billion yuan. After a four-year adjustment, it stabilized around 1250 yuan, illustrating a price return process [6][8]. Profit Growth - Profit growth is the second method of value return, where a company's earnings increase can justify a higher valuation. Guizhou Moutai's profit growth over the years shows a consistent upward trend, with expectations of surpassing 100 billion yuan in net profit in the near future [7]. - The article highlights that many companies experience price return rather than profit growth, as sustained performance growth is rare. For example, China Duty Free Group peaked at 400 yuan in February 2021, with a market value of 830 billion yuan and a P/E ratio of 136 based on 2020 net profit of 6.1 billion yuan. It later adjusted to a low of 53 yuan, demonstrating a significant price return [10][12]. Market Behavior - The article notes that 90% of companies experience value return through price adjustments rather than profit growth. This trend is evident in various sectors, including the food industry, where companies like Haitian Flavoring peaked at 219 yuan in January 2021, with a market value of 12.8 trillion yuan and a P/E ratio of 200 based on 2020 net profit of 6.4 billion yuan. It later adjusted to a low of 33 yuan [14][16]. - The author emphasizes the importance of recognizing market patterns and the cyclical nature of investments, advising investors to focus on whether a company is undervalued rather than just its quality [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing popularity of Hainan as a tourist destination during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with significant sales figures reported [1] - On October 5, the CDF Sanya International Duty-Free City, a subsidiary of China Tourism Group, achieved a single-day sales record exceeding 120 million yuan [1]

Industry Overview - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year. Excluding automobiles, retail sales amounted to 35,575 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.7% [2] - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 323,906 billion yuan, increasing by 4.6%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales were 292,643 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.1% [2] - By consumption type, in August, the retail sales of goods were 35,172 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%, while catering revenue was 4,496 billion yuan, increasing by 2.1% [2] E-commerce and Online Retail - From January to August, the online retail sales reached 99,828 billion yuan, growing by 9.6%. Among this, the physical goods online retail sales were 80,964 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.4%, accounting for 25.0% of total retail sales [3] - Categories such as food, clothing, and daily necessities saw growth rates of 15.0%, 2.4%, and 5.7% respectively [3] Consumer Trends - The consumer market in China is showing a moderate recovery, with a clear structural characteristic in consumption growth. Online channels are significantly driving this growth, and service consumption remains active [3] - The beauty and personal care sector is experiencing a shift towards functional skincare, domestic brands, and premium products, with leading brands achieving high growth despite market challenges [4] Investment Opportunities - Recent additions to the Hong Kong Stock Connect list include several retail and light manufacturing stocks, which may see increased liquidity and trading opportunities [5] - The beauty care industry is witnessing a shift towards rational consumption, with consumers focusing more on product quality and cost-effectiveness, benefiting domestic brands [5] - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays are expected to boost the tourism retail sector, with a focus on online travel platforms, theme parks, and chain hotels [6] Recommendations - Maintain an "overweight" rating on the retail industry, with a focus on newly added Hong Kong stocks in the retail sector and domestic beauty brands during the Double Eleven pre-sale period [6]

Group 1 - The tourism retail sector increased by 0.71% on September 29, with China Duty Free Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Group 2 - The tourism retail sector experienced a net outflow of 94.30 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 65.68 million yuan [2] - China Duty Free Group had a net outflow of 94.30 million yuan from institutional investors, representing a 5.30% net share [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The retail sector experienced a 4.32% decline last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.39 percentage points [4][9] - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the retail sector is 40.68X, down 1.85 percentage points from the previous week, with a one-year range of 27.98X to 43.58X [5][17] - The retail sales of consumer goods in August reached 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, with significant contributions from online channels and service consumption [6][20] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The retail sector's index closed at 2,384.72 points, ranking 29th among Shenwan's primary industries [4][9] - The sector's absolute return over the past 12 months is 38.0%, while the relative return is 9.7% [3] Industry Valuation - The current Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is 1.96X, with a one-year range of 1.36X to 2.1X [5][18] Industry Dynamics - In August, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4%, with a total of 39,668 billion yuan, and online retail sales increased by 9.6% [6][20] - The beauty and personal care segment showed a mild recovery, with retail sales reaching 34.9 billion yuan in August, up 5.1% year-on-year [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end domestic beauty brands and tourism-related retail sectors as potential investment opportunities [7][24] - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to boost sales for domestic beauty brands, particularly high-end products [24][25]

Group 1 - The tourism retail sector increased by 0.07% on September 26, with China Duty Free Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11, down 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209.0, down 1.76% [1] - The trading volume for China Duty Free Group was 284,700 shares, with a closing price of 70.20 [1] Group 2 - The tourism retail sector experienced a net outflow of 14.29 million yuan from institutional investors and 31.92 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 46.21 million yuan [1] - The net outflow from institutional investors for China Duty Free Group was 14.29 million yuan, accounting for -0.72% of the total, and from speculative funds was 31.92 million yuan, accounting for -1.60% [1] - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 46.21 million yuan, representing 2.32% of the total for China Duty Free Group [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Duty Free Group (601888) with a target price of 79.31 CNY, compared to the current price of 70.15 CNY [4][8]. Core Insights - The core business shows signs of recovery, with the duty-free leader demonstrating operational resilience. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 28.151 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9.96%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.6 billion CNY, down 20.81% year-on-year [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the second quarter of 2025, the company reported main revenue of 11.405 billion CNY, a decline of 8.45% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 32.77%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the quarter was 662 million CNY, down 32.21% year-on-year [2][4]. - The forecast for total revenue from 2024 to 2027 shows a gradual recovery, with expected revenues of 56.474 billion CNY in 2024, 57.136 billion CNY in 2025, 61.330 billion CNY in 2026, and 65.822 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% in 2025 and 7.3% in 2026 and 2027 [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.267 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 4.688 billion CNY in 2025, 5.268 billion CNY in 2026, and 5.970 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of -36.4% in 2024 and 9.9% in 2025 [4][9]. Business Development Summary - The core duty-free business is facing challenges, particularly in the Hainan offshore duty-free market, which saw sales drop by 9.2% year-on-year to 16.76 billion CNY, primarily due to a 26.2% decline in shopping visits. However, the average transaction value increased by 23.0% to 6,754 CNY, indicating effective strategies to enhance customer spending [4][8]. - The company is actively expanding its airport and port duty-free network, successfully winning bids for the operation rights of several key locations, including Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport [4][8]. - The company has made significant strides in diversifying its operations, with a notable increase in city duty-free store licenses from 7 to 13, and has entered the Vietnamese market with new stores [4][8]. Competitive Position and Outlook - As the only state-authorized enterprise to conduct duty-free business nationwide, the company holds a strong competitive position, owning nearly 50% of the 28 city duty-free stores in China. The market share in Hainan has increased by nearly 1 percentage point year-on-year [4][8]. - The digital transformation has been effective, with membership surpassing 45 million and online revenue accounting for 28.5% of total revenue. Although short-term performance may remain under pressure, the recovery of consumer confidence and international travel is expected to boost duty-free consumption demand [4][8].

Group 1 - The tourism retail sector experienced a slight decline of 0.16% on September 25, with China Duty Free Group leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.67% to 13445.9 [1] - China Duty Free Group's stock closed at 70.15, reflecting a decrease of 0.16% with a trading volume of 244,700 shares and a transaction value of 1.712 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The tourism retail sector saw a net outflow of 219 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 152 million yuan [1] - The breakdown of fund flows for China Duty Free Group indicates a net outflow of 21.947 million yuan from major funds, accounting for 12.78% of the total, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 152 million yuan, representing 8.90% [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (中国中免) announced the resignation of Ms. Zhao Feng from her position as Vice General Manager due to retirement, effective from the date her resignation report is delivered to the board of directors, which is September 22, 2025. After her resignation, Ms. Zhao will not hold any positions within the company or its subsidiaries [1]. Summary by Categories - **Company Leadership Changes** - Ms. Zhao Feng has resigned as Vice General Manager of China Duty Free Group due to retirement [1]. - The resignation will take effect on September 22, 2025, the date her resignation report is delivered to the board [1]. - Post-resignation, Ms. Zhao will not hold any roles in the company or its subsidiaries [1].