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今日非农夜:新增就业若跌破十万,美股牛市危了?
华尔街见闻· 2025-06-06 09:43
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical for Wall Street, with expectations of a slowdown in job growth and potential implications for market sentiment and economic outlook [1][2][4]. Employment Data Expectations - The consensus for the May non-farm payroll report anticipates an increase of 126,000 jobs, a decrease from April's 177,000, and below the three-month average of 155,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [2][6]. - Wage growth is projected to slightly decline year-over-year, with average hourly earnings expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, compared to 0.2% in April, and a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, down from 3.8% [3]. Job Market Indicators - Various leading indicators suggest a trend of slowing employment growth, including a disappointing ADP employment report showing only 37,000 new jobs in May, significantly below the expected 110,000 [7]. - Initial jobless claims rose from 216,000 to 226,000, and continuing claims increased from 1.833 million to 1.919 million, indicating a potential softening in the labor market [7]. Sector-Specific Insights - The leisure and hospitality sector is expected to be a significant drag on overall job growth, with projections of a loss of nearly 40,000 jobs in this area [8]. - Weather conditions in May, particularly higher-than-average rainfall in the East Coast and Southern regions, may have also suppressed hiring in leisure and construction sectors [8]. Impact of Tariffs and Policies - Analysts warn that tariffs may shift from a "tailwind" to a "headwind" for job growth, with affected industries likely to experience some weakness. In the six months leading up to April, these industries added nearly 200,000 jobs, but this trend may have peaked [11]. - The impact of immigration restrictions is expected to manifest in the coming months, potentially leading to a decrease in job growth, although the immediate effects in May are anticipated to be limited [13]. Market Reactions to Employment Data - The market is closely monitoring the non-farm payroll data, with a threshold of 100,000 jobs being a critical psychological level. A figure below this could trigger recession fears and end the current bull market [5][14]. - Goldman Sachs outlines a reaction matrix for the S&P 500 based on job growth figures, indicating that a number below 100,000 could lead to a decline of 2% to 3% in the index [14][18].
【UNFX课堂】美国5月非农前瞻:就业市场寒意渐浓,降息预期再受考验
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 03:41
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming US May non-farm payroll report is anticipated to reveal significant cooling in the labor market, as indicated by a series of concerning leading indicators, particularly the disappointing ADP employment data [1][3]. Employment Data - The ADP report for May showed only 37,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 114,000, marking the lowest figure since March 2023 and the largest deviation from expectations in nearly three years [1][3]. - Job losses were noted in the goods-producing sector, with a decrease of 2,000 positions, while the service sector saw a modest increase of 36,000 jobs, primarily driven by leisure and hospitality (+38,000) and finance (+20,000) [3]. - Small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) were particularly affected, losing 13,000 jobs, reflecting the direct impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on these vulnerable entities [3]. Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims rose to 247,000, exceeding expectations and reaching an eight-month high, with the four-week moving average also at its highest since November 2021, suggesting prolonged unemployment durations [4]. - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.9 in May, indicating contraction in business activity for the first time since mid-2022, attributed to policy uncertainties affecting order delays [4]. Policy Uncertainty - Current policy uncertainties, especially regarding tariffs, are seen as a core factor contributing to the unclear economic outlook, with potential cost increases looming if negotiations fail [5]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial for understanding structural changes in employment, particularly in the goods-producing sector, small businesses, and temporary jobs [5]. Market Reactions - Market consensus for new non-farm jobs has dropped to 130,000 from a previous 177,000, with some institutions predicting as low as 125,000 [7]. - The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, but a rise to 4.3% or higher could signal recession risks [7]. - Average hourly wage growth is projected to slightly increase to 0.3%, raising concerns about a potential wage-inflation spiral due to high labor costs and declining productivity [7]. Short-term Volatility - The release of employment data is likely to cause significant volatility in stock, bond, and currency markets, similar to the reactions following the ADP data release [8]. - Current interest rate futures reflect expectations of at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with increased bets on a September rate cut if unemployment rises significantly [8].
锦江酒店拟发行H股赴港上市,聚焦海外业务拓展与资本结构优化
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-06-06 03:00
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotel Co., Ltd. plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and attract international capital for overseas business expansion [2][6] - The funds raised from the H-share issuance will be used for strengthening and expanding overseas operations, repaying bank loans, and supplementing working capital [2][6] - Jin Jiang Hotel's H-share issuance scale will not exceed 15% of the total share capital after issuance, with an option for an additional 15% through an over-allotment option [2] Group 2 - Jin Jiang Hotel's main business includes full-service and limited-service hotel operations and management, as well as food and beverage services [3] - The company aims to improve corporate governance transparency and standardization through the H-share listing [6] - Jin Jiang Hotel's overseas hotel business generated revenue of 4.256 billion yuan, accounting for over 30% of total hotel revenue in 2024 [7] Group 3 - The company is focusing on debt restructuring and optimizing its organizational structure to improve profitability in its overseas operations [8] - Jin Jiang Hotel is accelerating its expansion into Southeast Asia, with plans to develop projects in Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and the Philippines [8] - The international listing is expected to enhance the company's global brand recognition and attract international talent [9]
1.497亿!南宁这个地标大厦再次降价拍卖!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 00:13
Core Viewpoint - The repeated failure to sell the Guangxi Fumandi Hotel (Agricultural Resources Building) despite significant price reductions over four years highlights a unique situation in the real estate auction market in Nanning, where the property has seen a total price drop of approximately 300 million yuan without any successful bids [1][11]. Group 1: Auction Details - The Guangxi Fumandi Hotel is being auctioned again with a starting price of 149.77 million yuan, translating to about 4,011 yuan per square meter, and the auction is scheduled for June 16 [2]. - The property has a total construction area of 37,345.94 square meters and a land area of 4,937.72 square meters, comprising 28 floors above ground and 2 below [5]. - The auction has attracted 4,624 views and 142 reminders, indicating a level of interest, yet no one has registered to bid [3]. Group 2: Historical Context - The hotel, once a landmark in Nanning and built in 1998, has undergone 24 judicial auctions since the bankruptcy of its parent company, Guangxi Fumandi Agricultural Resources Group, in 2018 [8][11]. - The starting price for the current auction is approximately 7.88 million yuan lower than the 2024 auction price and has decreased by about 300 million yuan compared to the initial auction price in 2021 [11]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The property has faced multiple failed auctions due to factors such as its aging structure, short remaining property rights, and the requirement for the winning bidder to take over employee labor relations [15]. - Despite these challenges, the location is advantageous, being close to South Lake Park, transportation links, and commercial areas, suggesting potential for revitalization if managed effectively [16][19].
中产最爱的亚朵,背刺最狠的一刀
凤凰网财经· 2025-06-05 20:31
针对此事,凤凰网财经 《公司研究院》 致电亚朵酒店客服,对方称不方便回复,后续会有专业部门进行对接。截至发稿,凤凰网财经 《公司研究 院》 并未收到相关回应。 01 高端酒店翻车,网友热议 "心理阴影拉满" 来源 丨 凤凰网财经《公司研究院》 核心提示: 1、亚朵"医院枕套"事件暴露酒店卫生管理漏洞,第三方洗涤外包品控失效,动摇中产信任。 2、轻资产加盟店致品控参差,快速扩张加剧管理矛盾,卫生问题频发。 3、零售依赖有风险。亚朵靠卖枕头增收,但代工贴牌、技术门槛低,难逃同质化竞争。 谁能想到,花大几百住一晚的亚朵酒店,枕套上居然印着医院的 Logo?这波操作,直接把"中产迪士尼"的滤镜摔得稀碎。 6月2日,一名网友入住杭州西溪紫金港亚朵酒店时,发现床上两个枕套中有一个标签印有"杭州御湘湖未来医院"字样。该医院为距离酒店约28公里 的民营医疗机构。根据携程网显示,杭州西溪紫金港亚朵酒店高级大床房1晚420元左右。6月3日晚,涉事酒店发布致歉声明,承认洗涤供应商在 分拣或配送环节出现失误,导致医院枕套混入酒店布草。 亚朵酒店,一度被誉为 "中产迪士尼""出差牛马的温柔乡",凭借"第四空间"理念——24小时早餐、深 ...
出海速递 | 谁在帮“喜茶们”落地美国?/“美国制造”流量汹涌:卖家狂欢、买家缺席
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-05 10:17
访问36氪出海网站letschuhai.com,获取更多全球商业相关资讯。 今日好文 谁在帮"喜茶们"落地美国? 与中餐出海美国的参与者们交流,还原中餐落地美国的细节。 "美国制造"流量汹涌:卖家狂欢、买家缺席 多重壁垒之下,赴美建厂看似能规避关税以及抓住可能的"美国制造"流量红利,实则成为一场风险巨大、回报渺茫的豪赌。 美国下边这五国,已经离不开中国了 中国在南美这几个国家卖了什么,又买走什么?我们翻遍了这几个国家的海关、贸易部、主流媒体,深挖了一波最新的数据与趋势。 智谱 COO 张帆即将离职,智谱会是下一个商汤吗? 大模型公司,困在 B 端商业化难题。 卡塔尔2024年吸引中国逾4100万美元外商直接投资 通过持续改善营商环境、推出新型数字服务以及在多个行业优化许可流程,卡塔尔持续巩固全球领先商业中心地位。 热点快讯 速卖通升级 AliExpress Business 业务,向商家全面开放全球分销网络 阿里旗下跨境电商平台速卖通近日对 AliExpress Business 业务进行升级,并上线"一键分销"新功能,可通过 AI 能力,围绕社区团长、达人网红、个人站 长、中小批发商等多种分销人群和场景,帮 ...
为了“出海”和“还贷” 锦江酒店拟启动港股IPO
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-06-05 06:17
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Jinjiang Hotels plans to launch an H-share issuance to enhance its global strategy and improve governance transparency, with funds aimed at expanding overseas operations, repaying bank loans, and supplementing working capital [1] - The planned H-share issuance will not exceed 15% of the total share capital post-issuance, with the final scale and ratio to be determined by the board of directors based on market conditions and regulatory approvals [1] - The company is in the early stages of this listing plan and will consider the interests of existing shareholders before proceeding within 24 months after shareholder approval [1] Group 2 - Jinjiang Hotels has entered a substantial phase of international expansion, particularly focusing on the Southeast Asian market, with plans to collaborate with Malaysian hotel management group RIYAZ to introduce five brands [2] - The company's overseas hotel operations have shown significant recovery, with RevPAR reaching 112.27% of 2019 levels in 2024, reflecting a 0.35% increase from 2023 [2] - In 2024, the company reported a decline in revenue from its overseas limited-service hotel business, with a revenue of €55.607 million, down 1.80% year-on-year, and a net loss of €5.689 million, which increased by €339,000 compared to the previous year [2] Group 3 - The company aims to optimize the capital structure of the French Louvre Group through the upcoming fundraising, which will also support cost control and financial optimization measures [3] - The Louvre Hotels Group operates several well-known brands, including Tulip Lodging, Kyriad, Campanile, and Golden Tulip, and has plans for further international brand expansion [3] - The trend of A-share companies pursuing H-share listings has been increasing, with several companies initiating H-share plans driven by internationalization strategies and financing efficiency [3]
美国就业数据爆冷,美联储降息倒计时开始?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-05 04:34
ADP的首席经济学家Nela Richardson女士也很委婉地说了句:"招聘正在失去动力。" 什么叫"失去动力"?直白点说就是:美国老板们现在普遍进入了"看看再说"模式。招人?先不急。工资?能不涨就不涨。现在的企业 HR,最常说的一句话不是"我们很快给你答复",而是"这个岗位先不招了了,祝你找到合适的工作!"。 说到这里,那么问题来了,为什么招聘突然刹车了?原因其实也不复杂:不确定性太多了,经济增长放缓,通胀还没彻底搞定,美联 储也天天"欲降还羞",搞得企业既不敢猛招人,也不敢扩张投资。 没错,事情是这样的:美国5月份的就业数据刚出来,就一个字——"惨"! ADP研究机构公布了一组数据,说是5月份美国私人部门新增就业人数只有3.7万人。这不是喜报,是丧钟!要知道,市场原本预期是 11.4万人,前值是6.2万,现在就给你整了个3.7万……你说这不跟年终奖预期五位数,实际到账"谢谢参与"一个套路吗? 经济学家们全体表情管理失控,这个数据比他们的预期少了整整五个标准差! 还有一个很扎心的点:薪资增长也停滞了。数据显示,跳槽的员工工资涨了7%,听起来还不错吧?但是没跳槽的人,工资只涨了 4.5%。这告诉我们一个道理 ...
成也“枕头”,败也“枕头”?谁干扰了亚朵的“好梦”?
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-06-05 00:36
Core Viewpoint - The incident involving Atour Hotel's use of hospital bed linens has raised significant concerns about hygiene standards in the hotel industry, leading to public outcry and potential reputational damage for the brand [1][2][4]. Company Overview - Atour Hotel, part of Atour Group established in 2013, operates 1,619 hotels with 183,184 rooms and over 89 million registered members as of December 2024 [2]. - By the first quarter of 2025, Atour is expected to have 1,727 hotels and 194,559 rooms, leading the domestic mid-to-high-end hotel sector [2]. - In Q1 2025, Atour reported revenue of approximately 1.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, with adjusted net profit rising by 32.3% to 345 million yuan [2]. Financial Performance - Atour's retail GMV reached 845 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 70.9%, indicating a shift towards retail as a key revenue source [2]. - Despite overall revenue growth, core accommodation metrics have declined, with average revenue per available room down by 7.2% to 304 yuan, average daily rate down by 2.8% to 418 yuan, and occupancy rate decreasing by 3.1 percentage points to 70.2% [2]. Industry Context - The hotel industry is facing intense competition, with Atour attempting to leverage a "deep sleep ecosystem" to drive growth [4]. - The incident reflects broader issues in the hotel sector regarding hygiene practices, with previous reports of similar hygiene lapses in other hotel brands [5][12]. - The reliance on outsourced laundry services for bed linens raises concerns about compliance with hygiene standards, as many hotels do not have in-house laundry facilities [6][13]. Regulatory and Management Issues - Experts highlight the need for stricter regulations and oversight in the hotel laundry process to prevent the mixing of hospital and hotel linens, which poses health risks [7][12]. - The incident has prompted calls for improved management practices within hotels to ensure hygiene standards are met consistently [12][13].
美国就业数据爆冷 美股盘前直线跳水!特朗普怒了!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-06-04 14:01
ADP数据显示,美国招聘放缓至两年来最慢速度 6月4日消息,美国招聘速度降至两年来的最低点,商业服务、教育与医疗等行业出现裁员,显示出对劳 动力需求的减弱。 根据ADP研究机构的数据,5月份美国私营部门的就业增长几乎陷入停滞,新增就业岗位仅为3.7万个, 为两年多以来的最低水平,显示出劳动力市场疲软的迹象。 这一数据低于4月份经下修后的6万个,也远低于道琼斯预期的11万个,为自2023年3月以来ADP统计的 最低月度就业增幅。 该报告发布的时间距离美国劳工统计局发布的更受关注的非农就业数据仅两天。市场预期非农就业将增 加12.5万个,失业率维持在4.2%。 尽管ADP与非农就业报告经常存在差异,有时甚至差距较大,但ADP数据仍为当前整体经济形势下的就 业状况提供了一个重要视角。 ADP首席经济学家内拉·理查森表示:"在年初表现强劲之后,就业增长正在失去动力。" 5月份,商品生产类行业净减少了2000个岗位。其中,自然资源与采矿业减少5000个,制造业减少3000 个,仅建筑业增加6000个。 服务业方面,休闲与酒店业(+3.8万个)以及金融活动(+2万个)表现出一定的增长。但专业与商业服 务减少1.7万个,教 ...