Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish view on the USD, recommending short positions against CLP, TRY, and KRW [10][20]. Core Insights - The report expresses cautious optimism for major Latin American economies, particularly favoring Brazil's rates while indicating that Mexico's valuations are less attractive [3]. - In Asia, the report anticipates that USD weakness will support AXJ currencies, although gains may be tempered by slowing global trade [4]. - The report expects EM bonds to deliver decent total returns but to underperform Treasuries, with EM currencies gaining against the USD but lagging behind other safe havens [5][64]. Summary by Sections Latin America - The report highlights Brazil's nominal and real rates as favorable, while expressing caution regarding Mexico's valuations [3][62]. - A short USD/CLP position is recommended due to strong macroeconomic fundamentals and potential political developments [48][51]. Asia - The report suggests that AXJ currencies will appreciate due to USD weakness, with a focus on idiosyncratic stories amid potential shifts in monetary and fiscal policies [4][67]. - Long KRW positions are favored based on supportive macro factors, despite acknowledging risks of a near-term rebound in USD/KRW [35][39]. Global EM Fixed Income - The report anticipates a rally in EM fixed income, driven by a disinflation process across regions, although it notes significant uncertainty in the US and a global economic slowdown [5][64][68]. - It projects local currency index bond yields to drop around 20 basis points by year-end, with expectations for US Treasuries to fall by about 50 basis points [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's trade growth moderated in May, with exports increasing by 4.8% year-over-year (yoy) and imports decreasing by 3.4% yoy, falling short of consensus expectations [1][9] - The decline in exports to the US continued, with a sequential decline of 17% after seasonal adjustment, following a 25% decline in April [1][9] - The trade surplus for May was reported at US$103.2 billion, an increase from US$96.2 billion in April [1][3] Summary by Sections Trade Growth - Year-over-year trade growth in May showed exports rising by 4.8% yoy compared to 8.1% yoy in April, while imports fell by 3.4% yoy from a decline of 0.2% yoy in April [2][9] - Sequentially, exports decreased by 0.7% non-annualized in May, while imports dropped by 6.3% non-annualized [2][9] Regional Analysis - Exports to the US fell significantly, with a 34.5% yoy decline in May, while exports to the EU rose by 12.0% yoy [10] - Imports from the US also declined by 18.1% yoy, while imports from the EU remained roughly unchanged [10] Product Categories - Export values for housing-related products fell, with home appliances declining by 8.9% yoy, while automobile exports increased by 13.7% yoy and chip exports rose by 33.4% yoy [11] - Import values for energy products and metal ores saw notable declines, with crude oil imports falling by 22.1% yoy [12]

Investment Rating - The report provides a bearish outlook for equities, particularly for the S&P 500, MSCI Europe, and MSCI Emerging Markets, with expected returns showing significant declines in the bear case scenario [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in China’s exports to the US, which fell by 34.4% year-over-year in May, indicating potential economic challenges [8][9]. - EU momentum has reached an all-time high, suggesting strong economic performance in the region [14]. - Silver prices have surged to their highest level since 2011, reflecting increased demand and market volatility [15]. Summary by Sections Equities - S&P 500 forecasted returns range from 6,000 in a bear case to 7,200 in a bull case, with a base case return of 4,900, indicating a -17.1% change in the bear scenario [3]. - MSCI Europe and MSCI Emerging Markets show similar bearish trends with expected returns of 1,610 and 870 respectively in the bear case [3]. FX (Foreign Exchange) - The JPY is expected to depreciate to 145 in the bear case, while the EUR is forecasted to remain stable at 1.14 in the base case [3]. - The GBP and AUD are also projected to see slight declines in their respective bear scenarios [3]. Rates - The UST 10-year yield is forecasted to be 4.51% in the bear case, with a base case of 4.00% [3]. - Other government bonds like DBR 10-year and UKT 10-year show similar trends with expected returns reflecting a bearish outlook [3]. Commodities - Brent crude oil is expected to see a significant drop to 45 in the bear case, while gold is forecasted to decline to 2,760 [3]. - Copper prices are also projected to fall to 7,790 in the bear scenario, indicating a bearish outlook for commodities overall [3]. Market Sentiment - The Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) reflects negative sentiment across various asset classes, suggesting a risk-off environment [58]. - The report indicates a significant divergence in positioning among different asset classes, with equities showing a more negative sentiment compared to bonds [63]. Cross-Asset Positioning - The report details net positioning across various markets, highlighting that US equities have a net positioning of 26% among managers, while EM equities show a higher net positioning of 42% [63]. - In the bond market, UST 10-year shows a net positioning of 38%, indicating a cautious approach among investors [63].

文/梧桐数据中心 2025年1-5月，共计有29家公司登陆港交所，其中27家通过IPO方式上市，另有1家通过借壳SPAC上市（找钢集团-Ｗ），1家GEM转主板上市（比优集团），这两 家不纳入本次统计中。港股首发上市的27家公司的IPO中介机构包括23家券商、21家香港律师事务所、15家中国内地律师事务所、6家审计机构，其中，中金公司 保荐8单，位列第一，华泰国际6单、招银国际5单，位列二三；达维律所和通商律所分别占据香港、中国法律顾问之首，业务单数各5单；"四大"则包揽了近90%的 审计业务，安永、毕马威各9单，德勤、罗兵咸永道各3单。 一、保荐人业绩排名 2025年1-5月，共有23家保荐人为这27家香港IPO上市公司提供了保荐服务，其中联合保荐的拆开计算，各计1单。 榜单前三名： 第一名：中金公司（8单） 第二名：华泰国际（6单） 第三名：招银国际（5单） | 排名 | 保荐人 | 业务单数 | | --- | --- | --- | | - | 中金公司 | 8 | | 2 | 华泰国际 | 6 | | 3 | 招银国际 | 5 | | 4 1 | 中信证券 (香港) WOOD REE | | | 5 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - JPMorgan remains a top player in investment banking, ranking 1 in global IB fees, with total IB fees soaring 37% to $8.91 billion in 2024 after declines in 2023 and 2022 [1] - In Q1 2025, JPMorgan's IB fees grew 12% year over year to $2.18 billion, driven by strong advisory and debt underwriting activity [1][9] - Morgan Stanley's IB revenues rebounded 36% in 2024 to $6.71 billion and rose another 8% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in the sector [5] - Goldman Sachs continues to dominate the IB business, maintaining a top position in announced and completed M&As, despite an 8% year-over-year fall in IB revenues in Q1 2025 [6] Group 2: Market Outlook - Near-term IB prospects for JPMorgan are clouded by market turmoil and monetary policy ambiguity, with a cautious stance adopted on the investment banking outlook [2] - Economic uncertainty is expected to hurt JPMorgan's IB business in Q2 2024, with IB fees projected to decline in the mid-teens range year over year [2] - Despite challenges, JPMorgan's long-term outlook for the IB business remains strong, supported by a healthy IB pipeline and an active M&A market, with an estimated CAGR of 2.2% for IB fees by 2027 [3] Group 3: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - JPMorgan shares have risen 10.8% this year, outperforming Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPMorgan's 2025 earnings implies a decline of 7% year over year, with a rebound of 5.2% expected in 2026 [9][13] - JPMorgan currently trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 2.81X, slightly below the industry average [10]

Core Points - Major corporate leaders, including CEOs from Uber, Dell, and Goldman Sachs, are set to announce a collective investment of billions into "Trump accounts" for employees' children [1][2] - The investment commitment will be made during President Trump's "Invest America" roundtable event, which promotes a pilot program that deposits $1,000 from the government into investment accounts for newborn Americans [2] - The program, previously known as "MAGA Accounts," aims to establish index fund accounts with $1,000 in government funds for U.S. citizens born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028 [3] Corporate Participation - Notable participants in the roundtable include: - Michael Dell, CEO of Dell Technologies - Brad Gerstner, CEO of Altimeter Capital - Rene Haas, CEO of Arm Holdings - Parker Harris, CTO of Slack and cofounder of Salesforce - William McDermott, CEO of ServiceNow - Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber - David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs - Vladimir Tenev, cofounder and CEO of Robinhood [4] Legislative Context - The provision for creating these accounts has already passed the House as part of a significant budget bill, which is currently pending in the Senate facing opposition from fiscally conservative Republicans [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the China FX and rates markets, with a bias towards CNY appreciation against the USD following trade de-escalation [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a revised 2025 real GDP growth forecast of 4.6% year-on-year, up from 4.0%, driven by stronger-than-expected real export growth [4]. - The USD/CNY forecasts have been adjusted to 7.20/7.10/7.00 over a 3/6/12-month horizon, reflecting a more favorable outlook for the CNY [4]. - The report notes a bear steepener in the yield curve following a 10bp rate cut by the PBOC, with improved growth prospects leading to rising long-end rates [5]. Valuations and Policy Stance - The USD/CNY spot fell below 7.2 in May, indicating a strengthening bias for the CNY [9]. - The report discusses the narrowing of the countercyclical factor to near zero, suggesting a more stable CNY fixing mechanism [10][11]. Technicals - The carry-to-volatility ratio for USD/CNH and EUR/CNH remained largely unchanged in May, indicating stable market conditions [21]. - Short-term momentum to buy EUR and sell CNH fell notably in May, reflecting changing investor sentiment [22]. Fundamentals - China's trade balance fell in April due to a lower goods trade surplus, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in the economy [34]. - Travel exports in March 2025 were around 151% of 2019 levels, while travel imports rose to approximately 98% of 2019 levels, indicating a recovery in the services sector [36]. Rates - Long-term cash bond yields and NDIRS rates rose in May after a 10bp policy rate cut, reflecting market adjustments to monetary policy [41]. - Front-end rates moved sideways following the rate cut, indicating a stabilization in short-term interest rates [42]. Liquidity and Leverage - The PBOC injected liquidity into the interbank market in May primarily through a 50bp RRR cut, enhancing market liquidity [61]. - Financial leveraging in the bond market rose further in May as interbank repo rates fell, indicating increased market activity [63]. Bond Supply and Demand - Net issuance of central government bonds was around RMB 940 billion in May 2025, reflecting an acceleration in bond issuance [69]. - The average CGB auction size increased further in May, signaling a robust demand for government bonds [75].

May 18, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea The Détente – What It Does and Doesn't Mean Following Monday's announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, the response in risk markets has been resoundingly positive through the first four trading days. The S&P 500 is up 4.5% from last Friday's close, and year-to-date returns are back in the black after Liberation Day drove steep declines in April. Credit markets have also rallied notably, ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and its exchange rate dynamics against the US Dollar (USD) within the context of the linked exchange rate system (LERS) maintained by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) [3][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Recent Market Developments**: - In April, the USD/HKD spot approached the lower bound of the peg (7.75) due to a weakening dollar and the announcement of US tariffs. The HKD appreciated sharply in early May, hitting the lower bound multiple times, prompting HKMA intervention to sell HKD and buy USD, which increased interbank liquidity and lowered HKD interest rates [3][7]. - The current USD/HKD spot is trading around 7.8440, influenced by a significant US-HK interest rate differential of approximately 300 basis points for the 3-month LIBOR-HIBOR spread [3][15]. 2. **HKD Peg Mechanism**: - The HKD operates within a tight band of 7.75-7.85 against the USD, with the HKMA intervening to maintain this peg by buying or selling currencies as needed [3][7]. 3. **Liquidity Injection Effects**: - The HKMA's actions have more than tripled the Aggregate Balance to approximately HK$174 billion, leading to a significant drop in short-term interest rates, particularly the 1-month HIBOR, which was fixed at 0.87% on June 3, down from around 4% in late April [3][7][13]. - The 3-month HIBOR also fell below 1.4% in late May, indicating a substantial reduction in borrowing costs, which is expected to support the local economy and property market [3][7][13]. 4. **Market Implications**: - The decline in interest rates is closely monitored by equity investors, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors like banking and property. The report highlights that long USD/HKD forwards are yielding record high annualized carry returns, with short-term FX forwards offering returns above 4% annualized for 1-month forwards [3][8][18]. - If the USD/HKD spot reaches the upper bound (7.85), the HKMA would likely drain liquidity, potentially increasing HIBOR rates. Conversely, a weaker USD or renewed HKD inflows could keep the spot off the upper bound [3][8][18]. Additional Important Content - The HKMA's issuance of Exchange Fund Bills and Notes (EFBNs) is noted as a liquidity management tool, with no immediate plans to drain excess liquidity, which could further support lower interest rates [3][7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the dynamics of USD/HKD spot movements, as they will significantly influence future interest rate trends in Hong Kong [3][8]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the HKD's current market situation, the implications of HKMA's interventions, and the broader economic context affecting interest rates and investment opportunities in Hong Kong.

Investment Rating - The report recommends an overweight (OW) position in emerging market (EM) foreign exchange (FX), an underweight (UW) in EM sovereign credit, and a market weight (MW) in EM local rates and corporates [5][14][25]. Core Insights - The US policy uncertainty continues to drive the EM outlook in the second half of 2025, with EM currencies expected to perform well in a slower growth, no-recession scenario [5][14]. - The projected global GDP drag from higher tariffs has been reduced following US-China détente, but remains significant, with global growth expected to slow to 1.3% annualized in H2 from 2.4% in H1 [29][30]. - EM monetary easing is ongoing despite a hold by the Federal Reserve, supported by domestic conditions and looser financial stability constraints [5][38]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The impact of US trade policy is expected to be more detrimental to the US than to EM, allowing EM local markets to continue performing well [14]. - The report suggests a neutral stance on EM fixed income assets, adjusting previous expectations of increased volatility and risk premia [14][22]. EM Local Markets Strategy - EM FX is positioned as OW, with a preference for currencies from EM Asia and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) [5][25]. - Local bonds are rated MW, with a focus on short-end receivers in specific countries like Israel and South Korea [5][25]. EM Sovereign Credit Strategy - The report maintains an UW stance on the EMBIGD index due to asymmetric spread outcomes, favoring specific countries like Cote D'Ivoire and Romania while remaining cautious on Brazil and Serbia [5][25]. EM Corporate Strategy - The report holds a MW rating for EM corporates, noting steady fundamentals and technicals, but highlights historically low CEMBI spreads at 230 basis points [5][25].