Core Insights - The upcoming earnings releases from major Retail-Wholesale players are expected to shape near-term market sentiment, with modest growth anticipated in sales and earnings following the holiday shopping season [1] - The sector is projected to achieve fourth-quarter revenue growth of 6.7% year over year, while earnings are expected to rise by 3.5%, indicating a slowdown from previous growth rates [2] Group 1: Earnings Trends - Consumer spending trends significantly influenced retail performance during the holiday season, with December retail sales unchanged month over month, reflecting a slowdown from November's 0.6% gain [4] - Year-over-year retail sales increased by 2.4% in December and 3.3% in November, indicating some resilience despite the month-over-month stagnation [4] - The slowdown in consumer spending is attributed to moderating job growth, policy uncertainty, and elevated household cost pressures, leading consumers to prioritize essentials and seek discounts [5] Group 2: Margin Pressures - Inflation trends, although moderating, continue to impact consumer budgets and retailers' cost structures, exerting pressure on margins for those unable to pass on higher costs [6] - Retailers with strong pricing power and efficient supply-chain management are better positioned to protect profitability amid these challenges [6] Group 3: E-commerce and Inventory Management - E-commerce and omnichannel execution are critical differentiators, with retailers that integrate digital and physical channels effectively capturing demand during peak shopping periods [7] - Inventory discipline is vital for profitability, with retailers using advanced analytics to align stock levels with demand, thus avoiding excessive markdowns [8] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - **Dollar General**: Positioned well with a Zacks Rank 2 and an Earnings ESP of +16.26%, supported by market share gains and strategic initiatives like "Project Elevate" [10][11] - **Walmart**: Holds a Zacks Rank 3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.31%, leveraging e-commerce momentum and a commitment to low prices, with a stable earnings estimate suggesting a 10.6% year-over-year increase [14][15] - **Home Depot**: Also a Zacks Rank 3 with an Earnings ESP of +5.61%, focusing on professional contractors and utilizing AI tools to enhance project planning [16][17] - **Dollar Tree**: With a Zacks Rank 3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.63%, the company is enhancing its value proposition and operational discipline following the decision to move forward without the Family Dollar brand [18][19][20]

A founder-led buyout of Canadian luxury fashion retailer Ssense obtained court approval, despite a group of lenders seeking to block the deal and pushing for a liquidation process to recover more money. https://t.co/uABIT1NKUA ...

Group 1: Market Overview - International stocks, particularly the MSCI All-Country World ex-USA Index, have shown their best return relative to the S&P 500 Index since at least 1995, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [2] - Domestic "SMID" caps and defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Real Estate are outperforming, while Energy and Materials are leading among the 11 S&P 500 sectors [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Earnings - A busy week of macroeconomic releases is expected, including Q4 GDP and PCE inflation data, which could reshape growth and inflation narratives [9][10] - The anticipated Q4 GDP growth rate is 3.0% quarter-on-quarter annualized, a deceleration from Q3's 4.4% [11] - The PCE update for October to December will provide a clearer view of inflation, with expectations of a warm year-end print [12] Group 3: Corporate Insights - Walmart's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to provide insights into consumer behavior and potential AI and cost-cutting strategies under new CEO John Furner [6][7] - The tech sector, particularly high-margin software companies, is facing valuation pressures, with many stocks trading at mid-teens P/E multiples [5] Group 4: Consumer and Business Sentiment - The S&P Global Flash PMIs will be released, which may reflect improved sentiment among business owners and corporate managers, potentially indicating a better labor market [14] - The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers will provide a second update on consumer sentiment, with initial reports showing more optimism than expected [15]

Core Insights - The final reading for the 2025 holiday shopping season indicated flat retail sales at $735.0 billion, missing the expected 0.5% increase, with a year-over-year growth of 2.4% against a 2.7% rise in the Consumer Price Index, suggesting weak real spending momentum [1][10] Retail Performance Analysis - Large U.S. retailers like Walmart, Costco, and Alibaba are under pressure due to disappointing year-end sales, impacting profit margins and earnings, which raises concerns for retail ETFs that include these companies [2] - The stagnation in December retail sales was attributed to several economic factors, including persistent inflation, economic uncertainty, early promotions that pulled sales forward, and a K-shaped consumer behavior where higher-income households remained stable while lower-income households reduced spending [4][5][6][7] Future Outlook - The retail sector's recovery depends on moderating inflation and a rebounding U.S. economy, with expectations for gradual improvement in real consumer spending if demand stabilizes and retailers manage costs effectively [8][9] - Analysts project U.S. retail sales to grow by 3.5% year-over-year in 2026, with inflation anticipated to remain between 2.6% and 3.0% [11] Retail ETFs Spotlight - **State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT)**: AUM of $681.4 million, exposure to 73 companies, gained 10.2% over the past year, charges 35 bps in fees [12][13] - **VanEck Retail ETF (RTH)**: AUM of $265.2 million, exposure to 26 companies, rallied 9.5% over the past year, charges 35 bps in fees [14] - **ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN)**: Net asset value of $52.84 million, exposure to 20 online retail stocks, gained 3% over the past year, charges 58 bps in fees [15] - **Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY)**: AUM of $124.5 million, exposure to 81 companies in online retail, charges 65 bps in fees [16]

Bankrupt luxury retailer Saks Global Enterprises is moving to block Simon Property Group from closing two locations in California and New York https://t.co/xjDqwH4qb1 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) focuses on essential goods, holding 99.3% of its portfolio in companies that produce groceries, household goods, and beverages, with net assets of $16.2 billion and an expense ratio of 8 basis points [2][3] Group 1: Fund Characteristics - XLP is designed for stability during economic uncertainty, featuring a 2.67% dividend yield and an 8% portfolio turnover, indicating a buy-and-hold strategy aimed at income generation rather than capital appreciation [3] - The fund allocates 28.73% of its assets to three major companies: Walmart, Costco, and Procter & Gamble, which dominate their categories and provide predictable cash flows [3] Group 2: Market Performance - Retail sales reached $735 billion in December 2025, growing 3.3% year-over-year, despite a pessimistic consumer sentiment reading of 52.9, indicating continued consumer spending on staples [4][6] - XLP has returned 15.2% year-to-date through February 13, 2026, outperforming its 12.9% one-year return, with Walmart achieving 20.2% year-to-date returns, Costco at 18.3%, and PepsiCo at 15.6%, while Procter & Gamble lagged behind [5][6]

Market Overview - Futures are trading higher after a sluggish start to the holiday-shortened trading week, with all major indices ending the day modestly higher [2] - The Nasdaq closed at 22,578, up 0.14%, marking its fifth consecutive week of decline prior to this [2] - The Dow Jones closed at 49,533, up 0.07%, and the S&P 500 closed at 6,843, up 0.10%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 closed down 0.11% at 2,646 [2] Treasury Bonds - Yields on Treasury bonds were slightly higher as sellers took profits after a solid move higher last week [3] - The 30-year bond closed at 4.69%, and the benchmark 10-year note was last seen at 4.06% [3] Oil and Gas - Oil prices decreased after a rise the previous week, with Brent Crude finishing at $67.32, down 1.94%, and West Texas Intermediate at $62.23, down 1.05% [4] - Natural gas prices fell significantly, closing down 6.2% at $3.04 [4] Precious Metals - Gold and Silver experienced declines due to profit-taking and short selling, with Gold recorded at $4,876, down 2.31%, and Silver at $73.36, down 4.16% [5] Earnings and Economic Data - The focus will shift towards economic data as fourth-quarter earnings wrap up with Walmart's report on Thursday [6] - Despite solid earnings for the quarter, ongoing market issues persist, with some analysts suggesting a 10%-15% correction would be beneficial [6]

Core Insights - Carrefour reported a like-for-like (LFL) sales growth of 2.8% in 2025, with total group sales reaching €91.48 billion ($108.25 billion) despite currency pressures [1] - The company faced a decline in net income, dropping to €319 million from €723 million in 2024, attributed to higher taxes and integration costs [2] - Recurring operating income fell to €2.16 billion, with an operating margin of 2.6%, while net free cash flow was reported at €1.31 billion [3] Financial Performance - Net sales for the year were €82.10 billion, with a gross margin decline of 22 basis points to 19.5% due to price investments and changes in store mix [2] - EBITDA was €4.51 billion, down 0.4% on a reported basis but up 3.4% at constant exchange rates [2] - Fourth quarter LFL sales increased by 1.6% to €24.29 billion [3] Regional Performance - France's ROI, excluding Cora & Match, increased by 11.3% to €1.10 billion, with a margin increase of 31 basis points to 3.0% [4] - ROI in Europe, excluding France, grew by 3.7% to €481 million, driven by a 13.5% increase in Spain [4] - Latin America's ROI declined to €779 million from €879 million, stable at constant exchange rates but impacted by currency depreciation [4] Strategic Developments - Carrefour completed the disposal of its Italian operations and raised its stake in Carrefour Brazil through a minority buyout [4] - The company launched the Concordis buying alliance and entered exclusive negotiations to sell Carrefour Romania, expected to complete in the second half of 2026 [5] - Carrefour confirmed €130 million of synergies from integrating Cora & Match by 2027 [5] Future Outlook - For 2026, Carrefour anticipates ongoing strength in France and Spain, gradual volume recovery in Brazil, and benefits from the end of Cora & Match integration costs [6] - The board proposed an ordinary dividend of €0.97 per share for 2025, a 5.4% increase, along with a €150 million special dividend contingent on the closure of the Carrefour Romania disposal [5] - CEO Alexandre Bompard highlighted major milestones in 2025, including the integration of Cora & Match and the launch of the European buying platform Concordis [7]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures are trending higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.7%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up 0.5% [1] - This upward movement indicates a "dip-buying" mentality as investors balance concerns over AI valuations with a strong domestic economy and potential global trade shifts [2] Index Performance - Major market indexes are looking to build on gains, with S&P 500 near 6,843, Nasdaq Composite around 22,578, and Dow Jones Industrial Average near 49,553 [3] Sector Trends - The broader market is affected by a rotation out of software-as-a-service stocks due to AI disruption, while defensive sectors like Utilities and Health Care show strength [4] - Current trends suggest a potential return to growth-oriented sectors if economic data supports a "soft landing" narrative [4] Economic Catalysts - Focus is on the release of FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM ET, with traders looking for insights on interest rate cuts [5] - Economic data to be released at 8:30 AM ET includes January Building Permits (expected at 1.400M) and Durable Goods Orders, forecasted to show a 1.7% decline [6] Corporate News - Nvidia remains a key market bellwether, with premarket interest surrounding its $4.66 trillion valuation ahead of its earnings report on February 25 [7] - Paramount Global shares rose nearly 5% amid a bidding war, while Amazon seeks to recover from recent pressures [8] - General Mills stock fell 7% due to concerns over consumer sentiment, while Tesla and Meta Platforms see modest gains [9] International Developments - A $550 billion Japan-U.S. trade deal is expected to benefit American industrial stocks, enhancing domestic capital investment [10]

Core Insights - Nanjing's consumption market showed strong performance during the 2026 Spring Festival, with total sales reaching 8.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [1] - The city implemented various policies and activities to stimulate consumption, including subsidies and promotional events, leading to a vibrant market atmosphere [1] Consumption Trends - The "old for new" consumption initiative was emphasized, with significant subsidies for automobile and home appliance purchases, including up to 20,000 yuan for car scrapping and 1,500 yuan for home appliances [3] - Participation in subsidy programs resulted in the sale of 4,058 home appliances and 17,539 digital products during the holiday [3] Regional Initiatives - Various districts launched unique promotional activities, such as the "New Spring Shopping" event in Yuhuatai District, which successfully increased car sales enthusiasm [4] - In Gulou District, partnerships with major retailers led to a significant increase in foot traffic and sales, with a 12% increase in customer visits and a 15% rise in sales compared to the previous year [4] Event Coordination - The city organized multiple key activities, including the "Four Seasons Appointment" consumption season and a lottery for receipts, which spurred consumer engagement across various sectors [6] - Over 400 promotional events were held citywide, attracting more than 1 million visitors to major shopping areas during the holiday [7] Cultural and Tourism Integration - The integration of commerce, culture, tourism, and sports created immersive consumption experiences, with tourist numbers reaching 4.22 million, a 13.3% increase year-on-year [8] - Cultural events, such as the 40th Qinhuai Lantern Festival, were linked with shopping promotions, enhancing consumer engagement and driving sales [9] Food and Essential Goods - The food and essential goods market remained stable, with sufficient supply and price stability during the holiday period, ensuring consumer needs were met [11] - The wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 19.2% year-on-year, while pork prices also saw a significant drop, contributing to a favorable consumer environment [11][12]