Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trading status of three stocks—MercadoLibre, Rocket Companies, and On Holding—highlighting their positions in relation to their 52-week highs and the implications for investors in a bear market context [1][2]. Group 1: MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) - MercadoLibre is currently trading at $2,161.11, which is 79% of its 52-week high of $2,645.22, indicating potential for bullish momentum [3][4]. - The stock has shown a year-to-date performance of 23.6%, with a decline in short interest by 13.8%, suggesting a possible shift in market sentiment [3][4]. - The consensus price target for MercadoLibre is $2,810.88, representing a 33.7% upside from the current price, with some analysts projecting even higher targets [5][6]. Group 2: Rocket Companies Inc. (RKT) - Rocket Companies is trading at $17.89, which is 76% of its 52-week high of $22.56, reflecting bearish market conditions influenced by housing market indicators [8][9]. - The consensus price target for Rocket is $17.12, but some analysts predict a potential rise to $25 per share, indicating a significant upside opportunity [9][10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 is projected to be 12 cents, a substantial increase from the current 4 cents, suggesting potential undervaluation [11]. Group 3: On Holding (ONON) - On Holding is trading at $41.72, which is 65% of its 52-week high of $64.05, primarily affected by tariff concerns related to its exposure to China [14][15]. - The consensus price target for On Holding is $63.65, indicating a potential upside of 53.5%, supported by a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 92.2x [15][16]. - The market's confidence in On Holding's brand strength and growth trajectory could lead to a closing of the valuation gap if strong Q4 results are delivered [16].

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid increase in demand for winter products due to a sudden drop in temperatures across multiple regions, leading to a surge in the "warming economy" as consumers prepare for winter [2][6]. Group 1: Sales Trends in Heating Products - Various heating products such as electric blankets, water heating blankets, and drying machines have seen significant sales growth, with categories like drying machines and dehumidifiers experiencing over 400% year-on-year growth [2]. - Electric blankets and water heating blankets also reported over 200% year-on-year sales growth, providing immediate heating solutions for households not yet equipped for winter [2][7]. Group 2: Apparel Sales Surge - Sales of winter clothing have peaked, with long down jackets for men and women seeing a 180% increase in sales, while cashmere sweaters and woolen coats grew by 160% and 121% respectively [4]. - Children's winter apparel, including down jackets and waterproof jackets, experienced a threefold increase in sales, indicating a strong market demand for family-oriented winter clothing [4]. Group 3: Footwear Trends - In the footwear category, products like long boots and snow boots have become popular, with long boots seeing an eightfold increase in sales and snow boots growing sixfold [5]. Group 4: Emerging Products - The "warming blanket machine," which heats bedding without direct contact, has gained popularity among younger consumers, offering features like mite removal and a pleasant scent reminiscent of sun-dried bedding [6]. - Traditional electric blankets remain highly favored due to their quick heating, low energy consumption, and ease of storage, with significant discussions on social media regarding their safety and effectiveness [7]. Group 5: Consumer Cautions - As sales of winter products surge, consumers are advised to be cautious about safety, particularly with electric blankets, ensuring they have necessary certifications and safety features [8]. - There are concerns regarding the authenticity of materials in high-priced apparel, prompting platforms like Douyin to initiate measures against false advertising and material misrepresentation [8].

[Music] 7-Eleven is the world's largest convenience store chain. Despite that title, it has somewhat of a reputation problem, namely in the US, where it was founded. >> I don't think I can buy anything here in Good Spirits, to be honest.>> It's not for me. >> It always has that kind of dirty feel. You feel the floor is a little bit sticky.The lights are kind of dingy. There's hot dogs rotating under a hot light that's been probably there for the most of the day. Japanese parent company 7i Holdings is facing ...

Economic Overview - The artificial intelligence (AI) boom is creating a disconnect between Wall Street and the real economy, with small businesses like Norton's Florist facing challenges that are not reflected in macroeconomic data [1][3][10] - Total U.S. GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in Q2 2025, rebounding from a 0.5% decline in Q1 [4] Small Business Challenges - Small businesses are struggling with higher costs due to tariffs and reduced consumer spending, leading many to operate in "survival mode" [2][13] - Norton's Florist generated $4 million in revenue last year and has had to creatively manage costs without raising prices [3][15] Impact of Tariffs - Trump's tariffs are projected to cost global businesses over $1.2 trillion in 2025, with most costs passed onto consumers [16] - Approximately 80% of cut flowers in the U.S. are imported, making local businesses vulnerable to rising import costs [15] Consumer Sentiment - A Deloitte survey indicates that 57% of U.S. consumers expect economic weakening, a significant increase from 30% a year ago [17] - Gen Z consumers plan to spend an average of 34% less this holiday season compared to last year, while Millennials expect to spend 13% less [18] Employment Trends - Seasonal hiring in the retail industry is expected to reach its lowest level since the 2009 recession, with new hiring down 58% from the previous year [19] - Major companies like Starbucks and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts are experiencing layoffs and disappointing earnings due to a challenging macroeconomic environment [20][21] AI and Market Discrepancies - Eight tech companies tied to AI are valued at over $1 trillion, comprising about 37% of the S&P 500, with Nvidia alone accounting for over 7% of the benchmark's value [6][7] - Despite the AI boom, sectors like consumer discretionary and staples have seen minimal growth, increasing less than 5% year to date [8] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while AI is driving GDP growth, there may be underlying weaknesses in other sectors of the economy [10][12] - The integration of AI into businesses is expected to be a gradual process, requiring time and adaptation rather than immediate results [23]

Core Insights - The logistics sector has seen significant engagement from investors, particularly in the ASEAN and US markets, highlighting its growth potential and diversification opportunities [1] - The popularity of insurance companies in the Philippines since 2014 has influenced investment strategies, leading to a broader portfolio that includes various industries and market capitalizations [1] - The entry into the US market in 2020 has allowed for comparative analysis between US and ASEAN markets, enhancing investment decision-making [1] Investment Focus - The company has diversified investments across banking, telecommunications, logistics, and hospitality sectors, indicating a strategic approach to portfolio management [1] - The shift from solely blue-chip investments to a mix of retirement holdings and trading profits reflects a dynamic investment strategy [1] - The use of platforms like Seeking Alpha for research and analysis has become integral to understanding market trends and making informed investment choices [1]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation is a leading global retailer known for its membership-only warehouse clubs, offering a wide range of merchandise at competitive prices [1] - The company is expected to report strong financial results, with an EPS of $4.24 and revenue forecasted at $67.2 billion, indicating growth potential [4] Stock Performance - Costco's stock recently closed at $932.14, reflecting a 1.05% decrease from the previous day, contrasting with the positive performance of the broader market [3] - Over the past month, Costco's stock has only dipped by 0.13%, outperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's 1.37% loss [3] - The current market capitalization of Costco is approximately $413.1 billion, with a trading volume of 1,608,904 shares for the day [5] Insider Transactions - Executive Vice President Adamo Claudine sold 2,700 shares at $935.68 each, leaving him with approximately 6,851 shares, which may provide insights into the executive's perspective on the company's stock value [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is entering a critical earnings season, with significant events including the Federal Reserve's meeting and earnings reports from major technology companies, amidst concerns over macroeconomic data delays due to a government shutdown [1] Earnings Reports - Nucor is expected to praise tariffs but not deliver exceptional results, as tariffs help prevent steel dumping from other countries [2] - UnitedHealth's earnings may reveal the impact of a government investigation into its billing practices, while SoFi's recent performance raises questions about its sustainability [3] - Celestica is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory due to strong demand for its tech products, and UPS's earnings present a balanced risk-reward scenario [3] - VF Corp is expected to report strong results despite previous underperformance, and Royal Caribbean is noted for its post-Covid stock performance [3] - Visa is described as a reliable stock, while Seagate may report outstanding results [3] - CVS is predicted to exceed earnings expectations, while Caterpillar may see profit-taking despite a potentially strong quarter [4] - Boeing is expected to provide modestly positive results amid trade tensions, and Starbucks may report slightly better than expected earnings [4] - Major tech companies Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are all predicted to post strong results, with Microsoft potentially leading the group [4] - Chipotle's upcoming earnings are critical for its growth status, while ServiceNow is expected to have a standout quarter [5] - Carvana is anticipated to deliver impressive results, and Agnico Eagle is recommended over Newmont in the gold sector [5] - The Federal Reserve's meeting is expected to result in a quarter-point rate cut due to signs of economic stalling [6] - Mastercard is expected to report solid results, while Eli Lilly needs to announce new developments regarding its GLP-1 drug [7] - Amazon's growth in its web services division is crucial for its stock performance, and Apple is expected to present a strong long-term narrative [8] - Chevron and Exxon are described as lagging stocks tied to crude oil prices, making it difficult for them to gain momentum [8]

Joining me now is Bill Simon, former Walmart US president and CEO. Bill, it's great to have you here. Give me a little bit of your thesis on why you think the consumer is in control.>> Hey Courtney, good to see you again. Yeah, I mean, look, the consumer's, you know, pretty flush right now. Nominal wages are up 4%.The inflation report today was relatively tame. There's been a lot of, you know, dark news about tariff this and tariff that and, you know, it is a bit of a roller coaster. It's on, it's off, it's ...

Corporate Restructuring & Efficiency - Target is streamlining the organization to tighten things up and initiate change faster, involving approximately 1800 corporate jobs, including 800 unfilled positions [1] - The company identified bloat as an issue, a trend seen across industries post-pandemic [2][3] - Corporate headcount cuts are considered a normal course of business, with Walmart also announcing similar cuts earlier in the year [4] Holiday Season Outlook - Target's corporate restructuring won't impact client-facing operations, seasonal hires, or in-store employee numbers [5] - Retail success during the holiday season hinges on inventory availability, accurate product selection, and customer support/experience [6] - Most holiday goods orders were placed in January/February, with goods arriving in July/August, positioning companies well for the season [9] - Consumers are expected to seek value and spread out spending to avoid large credit card bills in January [10] Pricing & Tariffs - Retailers are prioritizing avoiding price increases, exploring options like negotiating with suppliers and sharing costs [11][12] - Lower order volumes and reduced expectations for quick refills impact supplier negotiations [12] - Certain product categories will inevitably be influenced by tariffs, leading to some price increases [11][12]

Economic Overview - The September consumer price index (CPI) report indicates inflation is slightly lower than expected, which may lead to a Federal Reserve rate cut next week [2][9] - The Dow is up over 400 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also showing gains, particularly in tech stocks [3][6] - Crude oil prices surged by 8% this week due to new sanctions on Russian oil companies [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The CPI report is seen as a potential one-off due to the ongoing government shutdown, which may limit future data availability for the Fed [2][4] - Analysts suggest that while a rate cut next week is likely, the Fed may not have enough information to continue cutting rates beyond that [4][11] Automotive Industry - Ford reported strong third-quarter earnings but noted a $1.5 billion to $2 billion cost impact from a fire at a key supplier [22] - Ford expects tariff impacts to stabilize at $1 billion in 2026, lower than previous estimates [23][26] - General Motors (GM) has also benefited from reduced tariffs, which may enhance competitiveness against foreign automakers [28][40] Technology Sector - Intel's stock saw a significant rise after beating earnings expectations, driven by increased demand for AI-related computing [57][98] - However, concerns remain about Intel's supply constraints and competition in the AI space, particularly against Nvidia [100][110] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to a five-month low, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation despite the CPI report showing moderation [96][97] - Consumers are reportedly cautious, reducing household inventory and being more selective in their purchases [84][85] Market Trends - A broad market rally is observed, with tech and financial sectors leading gains, while materials and consumer staples lag [6][12] - Analysts suggest a potential shift towards value stocks as growth stocks face high expectations [17][19]