Core Viewpoint - Coinbase and Paradigm leaders accuse major US banking groups of attempting to stifle innovation in the crypto and stablecoin sectors through protectionist policies, highlighting a significant divide between traditional finance and digital asset firms seeking regulatory clarity [1][2]. Group 1: Coinbase's Position - Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer, Paul Grewal, criticized the Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) for opposing Coinbase's trust bank charter application, suggesting that the ICBA's stance reflects a desire to keep crypto unregulated [2]. - The ICBA argues that Coinbase's application does not meet statutory chartering standards and could set a dangerous precedent for the US banking system [3]. - Coinbase's Chief Policy Officer, Faryar Shirzad, linked the controversy to the broader debate on stablecoins, referencing the GENIUS Act, which aims to regulate dollar-backed stablecoins under the oversight of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) [3][4]. Group 2: Stablecoins and Regulatory Framework - Shirzad emphasized that stablecoins represent a significant advancement in payment technology, being faster, cheaper, and safer, and that the GENIUS Act provides clear regulatory guidelines [4]. - He noted that many member banks of the Bank Policy Institute (BPI) are already adopting stablecoins, arguing that attempts to protect outdated payment systems will ultimately fail [4]. Group 3: Paradigm's Perspective - Alexander Grieve from Paradigm accused the BPI of employing "bad-faith" arguments against stablecoins, suggesting a strategy of destruction rather than competition [5]. - Grieve compared stablecoins to other innovations like ETFs, asserting that new technologies often evolve beyond their initial purposes [5]. - He also indicated that former SEC Chair Gary Gensler's allies may be influencing the anti-crypto sentiment at the BPI, describing their tactics as outdated political agendas [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Maintain buy on VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 due to its all-time high first half recurring EBITDA [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, recent USD MEITUA 31 - 35s widened 2 - 4bps with RM selling; TW lifers SHIKON/FUBON/NSINTWs widened 2 - 5bps; BBLTB sub curve was 1 - 4bps wider; JP bank FRNs held up well, JP AT1s dropped by 0.3pt; JP insurance hybrids were marked lower; Yankee AT1s were down by 0.4pt then stabilized; NWDEVL Perps lowered 0.7 - 2.0pts, NWDEVL 27 - 31s were down by 0.6 - 1.3pts; LASUDE 26 was 1.4pts lower; MTRC perps lost up to 0.2pt; VNKRLE 27 - 29 recovered 2.7 - 2.9pts; GRNCH 28 fell by up to 0.5pt; Macau gaming stocks had mixed performance; HYNMTRs/HYUELEs traded 1 - 3bps wider; NTT curve was 1 - 3bps wider; PETMK curve was 2 - 4bps wider on the long end; SMCGL Perps/GARUDA 31 were down by 0.1 - 0.2pt; VEDLN 28 - 33s were 0.3 - 1.1pts lower; onshore AAA - guaranteed LGFV papers were sought after [2] - This morning, new CDBFLC 35 widened 2bps, new QBEAU 37 tightened 3bps, new STANLN PerpNC10 was 0.2pt higher; JP insurance bonds and MTRC Perps were down by 0.1 - 0.3pt; NUFAU 30 rose 0.9pt, SOFTBK 61/65s and NWDEVL 30 were 0.6 - 0.7pt lower; TW lifers widened 2 - 4bps [3] Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers include VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 (price 60.3, change 2.9), VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 (price 52.0, change 2.7), etc. - Top underperformers include NWDEVL 6 1/4 PERP (price 42.3, change - 2.0), NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP (price 44.0, change - 1.9), etc. [4] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P (-1.17%), Dow (-0.53%) and Nasdaq (-2.04%) were lower; UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 year yield at 3.58%/3.69%/4.10%/4.67% [6] Desk Analyst Comments on VEDLN - VEDLN's 2QFY26 recurring EBITDA reached INR116.1bn, up 12% yoy; 1HFY26 EBITDA rose to INR223.6bn, 42% of full - year target of USD6bn; prefer VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 with YTW of 9.0% and 106bps yield pickup over NICAU 9 09/30/30 [7] - VEDLN's average borrowing cost declined to c9.0% in 1HFY26 from c9.7% in 1QFY26, expected to fall below 8% near - term; PAT dropped 26% yoy to INR79.4bn due to one - off losses [10] - 1HFY26 operating cash flow decreased 12% yoy to INR162.3bn; spent INR102.6bn in capex, 61 - 68% of FY26 target; estimated 1HFY26 FCF was INR59.7bn [11] - As of Sep'25, cash and equivalents increased to INR218.6bn; total debt/LTM EBITDA and net debt/LTM EBITDA rose slightly to 1.9x and 1.4x; aims to bring net leverage down to 1.0x near - term [12] - Deleveraging may face headwinds from JPA acquisition; demerger hearing postponed to 12 Nov'25, seen as moderately credit positive [13] Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced issues include Alinma Sukuk Limited (USD500mn, 10NC5, 5.792%, T + 210), China Development Bank Financial Leasing (USD500mn, 10NC5, 4.6%, T + 93), etc. - Pipeline issues include Gaoxin International Investment (unrated, 3yr, 5.0%), Korea Electric Power Corporation (Aa2/AA/-, 3yr/SOFR + 95, 5yr/T + 80), etc. [17][18] News and Market Color - 99 credit bonds issued yesterday onshore with RMB106bn; MTD, 206 credit bonds issued with RMB190bn, 19.2% yoy increase [20] - Adani Enterprises 1HFY26 EBITDA fell 11% yoy to INR76.9bn, plans to raise INR250bn via rights issue [20] - Adani Ports 1HFY26 EBITDA rose 20% yoy to INR110.5bn, Fitch changed outlook to stable and affirmed BBB - rating [20] - China to boost subsidies for Alibaba, Tencent to cut data center energy bills [20] - Moody's upgraded Bharti Airtel to Baa2 from Baa3, outlook to stable [20] - GLP China repurchased USD205mn of GLPCHI 2.95 03/29/26, USD495mn outstanding [20] - Nickel Industries to hold non - deal roadshow on 19 Nov'25 [20] - Petron 9M25 revenue fell 10% yoy to PHP594.9bn [20] - Pertamina Geothermal targets 6.1% revenue increase for FY26 [20] - SK Telecom plans full - scale AI infrastructure expansion [20]

Regulatory Landscape - Coinbase executive criticizes the banking industry's resistance to its national trust charter application [1] - The core question revolves around whether this resistance is consumer protection or protectionism [1]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 251.44 points (-0.53%) at 47085.24 on November 4th, 2025, primarily due to profit-taking in the technology and AI sectors and concerns over high valuations [1][2] - Prominent Wall Street bank CEOs issued warnings about a potential market correction, adding to the negative sentiment in equities [1] Sector Performance - The reassessment of tech valuations led to profit-taking, particularly affecting AI companies, with Palantir Technologies (PLTR) experiencing a share price decline despite strong quarterly results [2] - The healthcare sector also showed weakness, impacting the overall performance of the Dow [2] Individual Stock Movements - The Travelers Companies (TRV) was the biggest gainer among the Dow components, rising 2.40%, followed by Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) at 1.08% and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) at 0.74% [3] - Conversely, NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) led the declines with a drop of -3.41%, followed by Boeing Company (BA) at -3.35%, Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) at -3.10%, and Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) at -2.93% [3]

Group 1: Magnum Ice Cream Co (MICC) Demerger and Listing - Magnum Ice Cream Co (MICC) is preparing for a triple listing on the London Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, and Euronext Amsterdam, following its demerger from Unilever, expected in mid-November 2025 [1][2] - The demerger process is projected to incur costs of €800 million, with approximately 55% of these costs already incurred [1] - Unilever will retain a minority stake of less than 20% in Magnum for up to five years, which will be sold to cover separation costs and maintain capital flexibility [2] - Magnum reported €7.9 billion in revenue and €1.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2024, holding an approximate 21% global retail market share [2] - The company has established a stable dividend policy, targeting a payout ratio of 40-60% of adjusted net income, with the first dividend expected in the first half of 2027 [2] Group 2: Corporate Earnings - Amgen (AMGN) reported a 12.4% year-on-year increase in sales to $9.56 billion, driven by strong performance from new inflammation drugs and cholesterol therapy Repatha [7] - Following its strong performance, Amgen raised its full-year profit and revenue guidance, with adjusted EPS now expected between $20.60 and $21.40 and revenue between $35.8 billion and $36.6 billion [7] - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) issued a weak profit forecast for the current quarter, adjusting its first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue estimate to approximately $5 billion, down from $6-$7 billion [8] - Despite the short-term setback, Super Micro maintained its full-year revenue forecast of at least $33 billion, citing strong AI demand and a $12 billion backlog of new orders [8] - AMD (AMD) beat its Q3 expectations with revenues of $9.25 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.20, but its Q4 outlook did not meet investor expectations [8] Group 3: Canada's Financial Sector Reforms - Canada's government is targeting competition within its financial sector by tackling fees, simplifying the process for consumers to switch banks, and reducing regulatory burdens for smaller lenders [9] - The initiative includes prohibiting investment and registered account transfer fees, which currently cost Canadians an average of $150 per account [9] - The government plans to increase the amount of immediately available deposited cheque funds to $150 from $100 [9] Group 4: Economic Indicators - New Zealand's unemployment rate for Q3 rose to 5.3%, with no employment growth quarter-over-quarter and a year-over-year decline of -0.6% [11] - In the United States, API crude oil inventories surged by 6.5 million barrels, significantly exceeding forecasts that anticipated a draw of 2.4 million barrels [12]

Core Viewpoint - The tension between large banks and private credit firms is escalating, particularly highlighted by UBS chair Colm Kelleher's warnings about systemic risks in the US insurance industry due to private financing [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Concerns - Kelleher emphasized the "lack of effective regulation" in the insurance sector, which he believes is leading to a "looming systemic risk" as small rating agencies proliferate [1]. - He noted that the insurance industry, traditionally a major institutional investor favoring investment-grade debt, is increasingly investing in private credit assets [2]. - Kelleher's comments draw parallels to the 2007 subprime crisis, suggesting that the current situation involves significant rating agency arbitrage [2]. Group 2: Responses from Private Credit Firms - Apollo CEO Marc Rowan countered Kelleher's claims, stating that 70% of Athene's assets are rated by major rating agencies like S&P, Moody's, and Fitch, indicating a strong compliance with established standards [3]. - Rowan acknowledged that while Kelleher's concerns about systemic risk are valid, the focus should not solely be on private ratings but rather on the quality of underwriting and asset management [4][10]. - He pointed out that Athene's balance sheet is over 90% investment grade, contrasting with banks that hold only 60% investment grade assets [9]. Group 3: Broader Industry Perspectives - Ares CEO Michael Arougheti expressed skepticism about the concerns surrounding structural risks in credit, suggesting that while smaller players may take excessive risks, the majority of the industry maintains high standards [12]. - Arougheti noted that 65% of the assets raised and deployed in the private credit market are concentrated among large incumbents, who are focused on managing risks appropriately [13].

Core Insights - Inflation and a weakening job market have made it increasingly difficult for Americans to save and manage their finances effectively [1] - A significant portion of Generation Z is utilizing retirement savings for basic financial needs rather than luxuries, indicating a trend of financial insecurity among young adults [2][5] Group 1: Financial Behavior of Young Adults - Nearly 46% of Generation Z workers have accessed their retirement savings to meet basic needs, compared to 31% of millennials [1] - About 42% of Generation Z's retirement withdrawals were used to pay off debt, while 37% were for unexpected emergencies like car or home repairs [2] - Only 6% of millennials used their retirement savings for debt repayments, highlighting a stark difference in financial behavior between the two generations [2] Group 2: Financial Pressures and Lifestyle Adjustments - Approximately 70% of Generation Z and millennials are struggling to pay rent, leading to reduced vacations, postponed medical visits, and decreased dining out [3] - One in three employees plans to use their retirement savings next year for emergencies and regular expenses, indicating that retirement accounts are becoming a "last resort" for young adults [4] - A report noted that the use of retirement funds by Generation Z is not due to a lack of discipline but rather financial insecurity, as they face expenses or debt that exceed their regular income [5] Group 3: Efforts to Improve Financial Situations - About 64% of Generation Z is actively taking steps to enhance their financial situations amid rising fiscal pressures, such as reducing expenses [6]

Market Reaction - Stocks are experiencing a pullback, influenced by comments from CEOs David Solomon and Ted Pick regarding a potential 10% to 20% correction over the next one to two years [1][2] - A 10% to 15% correction in a bull market is considered normal and could be a healthy sign for the market, allowing for reassessment of valuations [2][3] Market Conditions - Recent trading sessions have shown a spike in the repo market, indicating that some financial institutions may need capital, leading to increased high-yield credit spreads [4] - Despite the pullback, the market is still making higher highs and higher lows, maintaining the 20-day moving average for the S&P 500 [5] Volatility and Seasonal Trends - The VIX index is currently at 18, with expectations of a correction being discussed for some time [7] - November is traditionally a good month for stocks, raising questions about the duration of the current market conditions [7] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is in its 35th day, with a lack of economic data potentially reducing market volatility [9][10] - As the holiday season approaches, the impact of the shutdown may prompt Congress to negotiate a deal, affecting market sentiment [12] Federal Reserve Outlook - The labor market is a primary focus for Federal Reserve members, with indications that hiring is slowing, which may influence future monetary policy [13][15] - Market expectations suggest that a rate cut in December remains a possibility due to current economic trajectories [14] Company Focus: Humana - Humana is highlighted as a company to watch, particularly due to its exposure to Medicare and potential market share gains from United Health [18][20] - The stock is showing a bullish technical pattern, and a strong earnings report could positively impact the broader health insurance sector [19][20] Company Focus: Chemico (CCJ) - Chemico is noted for its involvement in uranium deals with the U.S. government, with potential for additional partnerships being a key point of interest [21][22] - The company's operations in Kazakhstan and Canada may benefit from reduced Russian uranium supplies, presenting a favorable outlook [22]

Core Insights - Financial institutions are increasingly investing in agentic finance, which utilizes AI systems for autonomous financial decision-making, with stablecoins playing a crucial role in this growth [1][2] - Stablecoins are described as "AI-native money," facilitating rapid and low-cost transactions, particularly beneficial for AI actors [2] - Circle's co-founder, Sean Neville, emphasizes the need for a financial operating system tailored for AI actors, as they will dominate financial transactions in the near future [3] Group 1: Stablecoins and AI Integration - Stablecoins are positioned as essential for AI-driven financial transactions, allowing for internet-speed payments and cross-border transactions at low fees [2] - Circle's USDC stablecoin is projected to capture one-third of the stablecoin market by 2027, indicating significant growth potential [2] Group 2: Future of Banking with AI - Neville's new venture, Catena Labs, aims to create an AI-native bank, focusing on the financial needs of AI actors [3] - The development of a financial operating system for AI actors is a key objective, addressing their requirements for asset management, payment processing, and yield generation [3]

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad indicates that "very restrictive" interest rates are contributing to the country's debt levels and suggests it is time for the central bank to signal plans for easing [1] Group 1 - The current interest rates in Brazil are described as "very restrictive," which is impacting the nation's debt levels [1] - Haddad's comments were made during an interview with Bloomberg News at the COP30 event in Sao Paulo [1] - There is a call for the central bank to begin signaling intentions to ease interest rates [1]