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Core Viewpoint - The wealth-management industry is facing significant disruption from AI technologies, leading to a selloff in related stocks as investors express concerns about the potential impact on traditional business models and fee structures [1][5][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The recent selloff in wealth-management stocks was triggered by the introduction of an AI tool by Altruist Corp., which helps financial advisers personalize strategies for clients [11][12]. - Major companies like Raymond James Financial Inc. and Charles Schwab Corp. experienced significant declines, with Raymond James dropping 8.8% and Charles Schwab sinking 7.4%, marking their worst days since March 2020 and April respectively [11][12]. - The S&P 500 insurance index fell 3.9% on Monday, its worst session since October, before rebounding by 0.8% the following day [9][12]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts express high uncertainty regarding the future of companies in the wealth-management sector, with UBS analyst Michael Brown noting the difficulty in predicting the next 12 to 24 months [2][12]. - Concerns about AI disrupting financial advice and wealth-management models are prevalent, with analysts highlighting fears of fee compression and market-share shifts [5][12]. - Some analysts, like Wilma Burdis from Raymond James Financial Inc., argue that the selloff may be overblown, emphasizing that clients still prefer human advisors for trust [8][12]. Group 3: Industry Developments - Executives from major asset management firms, including Blackstone and Apollo Global Management, are actively addressing investor concerns about AI's potential to disrupt their businesses [5][12]. - New startups like Rogo Technologies and Hebbia are emerging, aiming to leverage AI to enhance financial services and improve efficiency [10][12]. - Leading AI developers, including OpenAI, are expanding their offerings in the financial sector, indicating a growing intersection between AI technology and financial services [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingsoft Corporation (3888.HK) [5] Core Insights - Kingsoft is expected to experience a structural differentiation in its performance, with gaming business under pressure while office software shows strong growth driven by AI and digital transformation [1][3] - The gaming revenue is projected to decline by 29% year-on-year in 4Q25, while the office business is anticipated to grow by 15% year-on-year in the same period [2][3] - The company has a strong cash position and significant undervaluation of its core equity holdings, providing a safety net against short-term performance fluctuations [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 4Q25, Kingsoft's revenue is expected to be 2.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% [1] - The operating profit margin is projected to improve to 19% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with an annual operating profit margin of approximately 19% for 2025 [1] Gaming Business Outlook - The gaming segment is forecasted to see a revenue drop of 27% year-on-year for 2025, totaling 3.8 billion RMB [2] - The new game "Goose Duck" is expected to drive recovery in 2026, having shown strong user engagement with 5 million new users on its first day of public testing [2] Office Business Performance - The office software segment is expected to benefit from the deepening of digital transformation in government and enterprises, with WPS Office achieving 669 million monthly active devices [3] - The integration of AI features is anticipated to enhance user engagement and conversion rates, contributing to sustained revenue growth [3] Valuation and Financial Metrics - The report revises the net profit forecast for 2025 to 1.29 billion RMB, down from a previous estimate of 2.07 billion RMB, while introducing a 2027 net profit forecast of 1.6 billion RMB [4] - The company is seen to have a high safety margin due to its robust cash reserves and significant equity undervaluation, suggesting potential for performance rebound post-2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Rising fears about artificial intelligence (AI) are negatively impacting the stock prices of companies perceived to be at risk, including both small software firms and large wealth-management companies [1][2]. Market Reaction - A recent selloff was triggered by a tax-strategy tool from Altruist Corp., causing shares of Charles Schwab Corp., Raymond James Financial Inc., and LPL Financial Holdings Inc. to drop by 7% or more [1]. - This decline represents the most significant drop for these stocks since the trade-war market meltdown in April [2]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are shifting from identifying potential winners in the AI space to avoiding companies that may be displaced by AI advancements [5]. - The mood among investors has changed dramatically, with a focus on potential disruption rather than growth opportunities [4][5]. Industry Impact - The software industry has been particularly affected, with fears of AI disruption spreading to financial services, asset management, and legal services [6]. - New AI tools have led to significant stock declines across various sectors, including a notable impact on US insurance brokers following the launch of an application by Insurify [7]. Competitive Threats - Altruist's CEO noted the unexpected scale of the market's reaction, indicating a strong signal regarding the competitive threat posed by AI in wealth management [8]. - The architecture used to build Altruist's product, Hazel, is seen as capable of replacing traditional jobs in wealth management, which typically require entire teams [9]. Broader AI Adoption - Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are making strides in software engineering and are beginning to penetrate other industries [9]. - There are ongoing questions about how quickly and effectively AI technology will be adopted across various sectors, including banking [10]. Valuation Concerns - The recent pullbacks in stock prices may reflect broader anxieties about inflated valuations resulting from the AI spending boom and a resilient US economy [11]. - Investors are becoming increasingly sensitive to negative market signals, leading to significant sell-offs in response to perceived risks [12]. Future Outlook - Some industry experts believe that concerns about AI's disruptive potential may be premature, as the market is still in the early stages of understanding AI's long-term implications [13].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 is down by 0.1% but remains near record highs, with defensive sectors gaining traction [2] - The ten-year Treasury yield has decreased by almost six basis points to 4.14%, influenced by weak retail sales data, which strengthens the case for potential Fed rate cuts [3][5] - Bitcoin has experienced volatility, currently trading just below $69,000 after reaching $60,000 last week [4] Economic Indicators - December retail sales showed stagnation, with eight out of thirteen retail categories reporting declines, indicating potential weakness in consumer spending [5][20] - The upcoming January jobs report is anticipated to provide further insights into the labor market, with a consensus estimate of 65,000 new jobs, although a whisper number suggests only 40,000 [26][28] Company Insights - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon expressed confidence in the U.S. economy, suggesting that the recent drop in software stocks may have been overdone [6][7] - Quest Diagnostics reported a record high in shares following strong earnings, raising its dividend and issuing a higher-than-expected adjusted EPS forecast for 2026 [30][31] - The consumer health segment of Quest Diagnostics is projected to grow over 20% this year, driven by increased consumer interest in preventive health measures [36][37] Sector Performance - Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, have outperformed large-cap stocks, with a 21% rally over the past six months compared to a 9% gain for the S&P 500 [9][10] - The software sector has seen a significant valuation rerating of about 40% recently, despite facing scrutiny and volatility [15][19] - The healthcare sector, particularly in diagnostics and chronic disease management, is experiencing growth due to rising rates of chronic conditions and advancements in testing technologies [32][44] Future Outlook - The U.S. economy is transitioning from labor force growth to productivity-led growth, with generative AI adoption contributing to a productivity growth rate of 2% over the past few years, surpassing pre-COVID levels [25][98] - CVS is facing challenges due to flat Medicare Advantage rates, which could impact its growth trajectory, particularly as it targets mid-teens EPS growth through 2028 [52][54] - Becton Dickinson's recent merger with Waters aims to position the company as a leader in the life sciences space, focusing on AI and robotics to enhance healthcare delivery [67][68]

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet Inc. has successfully raised nearly $32 billion in debt within 24 hours to support its artificial intelligence initiatives, achieving record corporate bond sales in both the sterling and Swiss franc markets [1][2]. Group 1: Debt Issuance Details - The debt issuance included the largest-ever corporate bond sales in the sterling and Swiss franc markets, following a $20 billion debt sale on Monday [2]. - The sterling offering featured a rare 100-year note, marking the first such sale by a technology firm since the dot-com era [2][10]. - The 100-year bond attracted nearly 10 times the orders for the £1 billion ($1.4 billion) available, pricing at just 1.2 percentage points above 10-year UK government bonds [3]. Group 2: Market Demand and Investor Interest - High demand was noted across the deals, with a wide range of maturities appealing to various investors, including asset managers, hedge funds, pension funds, and insurers [4]. - The overall borrowing needs of tech firms, particularly in AI, have led to significant interest from investors, with Alphabet's capital expenditures projected to reach $185 billion this year, double last year's spending [5]. Group 3: Industry Context and Comparisons - Other tech companies, such as Oracle, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft, have also announced substantial spending plans, with Morgan Stanley predicting borrowing by cloud-computing firms to reach $400 billion this year [6]. - Alphabet's recent moves to diversify its debt-raising efforts included tapping the euro bond market, where it raised €6.5 billion ($7.7 billion) [13]. Group 4: Concerns and Market Dynamics - The significant borrowing by major tech firms has raised concerns regarding potential pressure on bond valuations, as these securities are considered expensive by historical standards [8]. - Investor apprehensions about the sustainability of the AI boom and its impact on related sectors, such as Software-as-a-Service, have been noted [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Datadog (DDOG US), indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [20]. Core Insights - Datadog reported total revenue of US$953.2 million for 4Q25, reflecting a 29.2% year-over-year growth, which is 4% above both the forecast and Bloomberg consensus [1] - The company experienced strong revenue growth from both non-AI customers and AI-native customers, with non-GAAP net income after tax adjustments reaching US$217.4 million, up 22.5% year-over-year [1] - For 2025, total revenue is projected to grow by 27.7% year-over-year to US$3.4 billion, with a non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) of 22.4% [1] - Management has guided for 1Q26 revenue growth of 25-26% year-over-year, with a conservative full-year revenue growth forecast of 18-20% for 2026 [1] Financial Performance - Datadog's platform had over 32,700 customers by the end of 4Q25, a 9% increase year-over-year, with significant growth in large customers [8] - The company reported a remaining performance obligation (RPO) of US$3.46 billion, up 52% year-over-year, indicating strong future revenue visibility [8] - The net dollar-based retention rate was approximately 120% in 4Q25, consistent with the previous quarter and up from high-110% in 4Q24 [8] Revenue Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY26E are set at US$4.1 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of approximately 18-20% [10] - Adjusted net profit for FY26E is expected to be between US$779.2 million and US$792.7 million, with an adjusted EPS of US$2.08-2.16 [10] Target Price and Valuation - The target price for Datadog has been adjusted to US$196.9 from US$203.7, based on a valuation of 16.3x 2026E EV/sales [1][2] - The current price of Datadog is US$114.01, indicating a potential upside of 72.7% to the target price [2]

Market Overview - Major equity averages experienced a decline towards the end of the trading day, despite the S&P 500 hitting a record high earlier in the session [2][5] - The S&P 500 closed down approximately 0.3%, the Nasdaq down about 0.6%, while the Dow saw a slight increase of 0.1% [6] - Trading volume in the S&P 500 was down 15% from the ten-day average, indicating a cautious market sentiment [4] Economic Indicators - Investors are awaiting a significant jobs report, which is expected to influence market sentiment and the Federal Reserve's decisions [5] - The upcoming inflation report on Friday is also anticipated to provide insights into the U.S. economy [5] Company Performances - Datadog's stock rose nearly 14% after beating expectations in its fourth-quarter results, despite a weaker full-year forecast [10] - Spotify saw a significant increase of almost 15%, attributed to adding 38 million new users, reaching a total of 751 million [12] - European Wax Center's stock surged 43% after agreeing to be taken private by General Atlantic, valuing the company at approximately $330 million [14][15] Notable Declines - Alphabet's shares fell 1.8% after raising nearly $3 billion in debt, highlighting the funding needs of tech companies [16] - Coca-Cola's stock declined as the company projected organic sales growth of 4-5% for 2026, slightly below analyst expectations [17] - Wealth management firms, including Charles Schwab and Raymond James, experienced declines of 7.4% and 8.8%, respectively, following the launch of a new tax planning offering by Altruist [18] Earnings Reports - Ford reported an adjusted EPS of $0.13, below the estimated $0.18, and projected adjusted EV for 2026 between $8 billion to $10 billion [20] - Robinhood's stock dropped approximately 7% in after-hours trading after its fourth-quarter net revenue missed analyst estimates [21] - Lyft's stock fell about 15% in after-hours trading despite authorizing a new share buyback, as the outlook for the first quarter was lower than expected [23][24] - Zillow Group met revenue estimates but provided a first-quarter revenue outlook that was below analyst expectations [25]

Company Overview - Robinhood's fourth quarter revenue missed expectations, leading to an almost 8% decline in after-hours trading [1] - The stock was already down about 40% from its all-time high in October, raising concerns about its performance during the current crypto downturn [4] Financial Performance - Key metrics showed deceleration, particularly in net deposit growth, which continued to decline into January [2] - Despite the topline miss, management's commentary on future business growth and transaction volumes was constructive, indicating a decent outlook [3] Crypto Market Impact - Crypto revenue has decreased from over 20% to an expected near 10% of total business, with a potential 50% haircut to current trading volumes during a crypto winter [6] - This scenario would only result in a manageable 10% hit to Robinhood's EBITDA [6] Business Diversification - Robinhood is better positioned during the current crypto downturn due to its diversified product lineup, including a significant increase in net interest income and new offerings like retirement accounts and banking products [9][10] - The company is evolving into a more comprehensive financial app, which enhances its resilience compared to previous downturns [8] Options Trading Growth - Options trading, which constitutes about 25% of Robinhood's revenue, is expected to see significant growth, potentially up to 40% due to increased penetration and new product offerings [12][14] - The options market is less cyclical, allowing for trading in both up and down markets, which supports long-term growth for Robinhood [13] Prediction Markets - Robinhood's entry into prediction markets is seen as a potential growth area, leveraging its strong distribution capabilities despite increasing competition [15] - The company has announced a partnership that enhances its control over economics and product innovation in this space [16]

Group 1: Cybersecurity Threats - The RCtea zombie network is rapidly spreading, targeting IoT devices in China, with nearly 10,000 infected devices reported [1][2] - The peak number of active infected devices reached 4,870 in a single day, with a maximum of 278,000 server access requests [1] - The network employs advanced encryption and anti-tracking mechanisms, capable of launching various DDoS attacks [1][2] Group 2: Smartphone Market Insights - By 2025, the global smartphone active device stock is expected to grow by 2%, with an extended replacement cycle nearing four years [3][4] - Eight smartphone brands have surpassed 200 million active devices, collectively holding over 80% of the market share [4] - Apple and Samsung are the only brands with active device counts exceeding 1 billion, together accounting for 44% of the global market [4] Group 3: Automotive Industry Developments - Xiaomi's first-generation SU7 has officially ceased production, with nearly 370,000 units delivered [6][7] - The new generation SU7 is expected to launch in April 2026, with a price range starting from 229,900 yuan [8][9] Group 4: AI and Technology Advancements - GitHub has integrated OpenAI's GPT-5.3-Codex into Copilot, improving performance on agentic coding tasks by approximately 25% [2][3] - ByteDance's Seedream 5.0 image generation model has been launched, enhancing accuracy and speed in image creation [14] - Alibaba's Qwen-Image-2.0 model has been released, achieving high scores in image generation and editing capabilities [15][17] Group 5: E-commerce Trends - Taobao's flash sales for New Year goods saw a 347% increase in sales, with orders from third- and fourth-tier cities rising over 580% [12] - The online retail landscape is shifting, with down-market areas becoming the main consumer base for New Year shopping [12] Group 6: Legal and Corporate Changes - MiHoYo has terminated its partnership with Shanghai Huiye Law Firm, placing it on a blacklist for future collaborations [13] - Envision Energy has withdrawn its lawsuit against MiHoYo, which has been approved by the court [13]