策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.07.10） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：77300-79000 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，特朗普拟对美国铜进口征收50%关税。 2、供给方面，智利6月份铜出口额为46.7亿美元，较去年同期增长17.5%。据SMM了 解，印尼内政部长 Tito Karnavian表示，他已要求该国矿业部放宽对安曼国际矿业公司 (AmmanMineral International)的铜精矿出口禁令，理由是这对当地经济造成了影 响。Tito 称，安曼国际矿业公司所在的Nusa Tenggara Barat省的第一季度经济同比萎缩 1.47%，受到该公司无法出口其精矿产的影响，而其冶炼厂正在增加产能。印尼已禁止出口 铜精矿和其他原料矿物，以鼓励国内的金属加工。从2023年中期开始，对一些矿物实行出 口禁令，但安曼被允许出口，直至2024年12月，届时预计将启用一家新治炼厂 3、需求方面，2025年5月，中国家用空调出口量为969.5万台，同比微增0.1%。5月 出口量额维持微幅增长，一方面是因为去年的高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Gansu Province's naphtha production in May 2025 experienced a decline of 2.2% year-on-year, totaling 0.8 thousand tons, with a significant decrease in growth rate compared to the previous year [1] - In the first five months of 2025, Gansu Province's naphtha production reached 4.9 thousand tons, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 56.7%, which is 35.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2] - The naphtha production in Gansu accounted for 0.1% of the national output of 630.9 million tons in May 2025 and 0.2% of the national output of 3243.6 million tons in the first five months of 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - The data is derived from large-scale industrial enterprises, defined as those with annual main business revenues of 20 million yuan or more [4]

Group 1 - In May 2025, the diesel production in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region reached 291,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [1] - The growth rate in May 2025 was 2.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, indicating a slowdown in growth [1] - The diesel production in Ningxia accounted for 1.8% of the national diesel production of 15,912,000 tons during the same period, which was 19.0 percentage points higher than the national growth rate [1] Group 2 - From January to May 2025, the total diesel production in Ningxia was 1,336,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [2] - The growth rate for the first five months of 2025 was 12.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, also indicating a slowdown [2] - The diesel production in Ningxia during this period represented 1.7% of the national diesel production of 79,248,000 tons, which was 10.7 percentage points higher than the national growth rate [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and EW oscillated at a low level. The 380 8 - 9 month spread dropped to $3.25, the basis oscillated at a low level, the FU09 internal - external spread weakened significantly, and the domestic delivery volume was large, maintaining a loose pattern. The 0.5 crack spread in Singapore decreased slightly, the monthly spread oscillated, and the 8 - 9 month spread oscillated around $6. The LU internal - external spread remained strong, with LU09 oscillating around $17. Singapore's on - shore inventory increased this week, the window was under delivery pressure, and the near - month contracts were under pressure. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, the high - sulfur supply - demand was in the peak season, the internal - external spread has dropped rapidly, the external low - sulfur valuation was high, and the LU internal - external spread was running at a high level. Attention should be paid to domestic production [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 409.77 | 410.21 | 415.73 | 421.39 | 426.47 | 5.08 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 469.65 | 466.59 | 469.33 | 473.90 | 474.79 | 0.89 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 2.78 | - 2.61 | - 2.45 | - 2.47 | - 1.76 | 0.71 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 664.83 | 671.26 | 665.18 | 678.94 | 675.44 | - 3.50 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 195.18 | - 204.67 | - 195.85 | - 205.04 | - 200.65 | 4.39 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.34 | 23.61 | 21.59 | 22.87 | 22.33 | - 0.54 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 59.88 | 56.38 | 53.60 | 52.51 | 48.32 | - 4.19 |[2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 416.15 | 416.21 | 414.51 | 421.88 | 426.95 | 5.07 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 424.78 | 424.41 | 423.40 | 430.38 | 436.11 | 5.73 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 500.37 | 500.75 | 496.05 | 503.04 | 507.25 | 4.21 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 87.39 | 86.91 | 88.27 | 87.84 | 90.06 | 2.22 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 1.67 | - 1.70 | - 1.74 | - 1.55 | - 1.84 | - 0.29 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 146.32 | - 142.38 | - 157.15 | - 146.98 | - 159.19 | - 12.21 |[2][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 406.28 | 407.59 | 406.54 | 416.16 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 513.61 | 512.68 | 507.10 | 513.00 | - | - | | 380 Basis | - 7.15 | - 6.40 | - 6.25 | - 5.00 | - | - | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 4.2 | - 2.9 | - 4.7 | - 7.0 | - 10.3 | - 3.3 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 16.8 | 17.0 | 17.7 | 18.3 | 16.6 | - 1.7 |[3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2871 | 2857 | 2848 | 2869 | 2902 | 33 | | FU 05 | 2815 | 2805 | 2794 | 2807 | 2837 | 30 | | FU 09 | 2987 | 2966 | 2947 | 2972 | 2982 | 10 | | FU 01 - 05 | 56 | 52 | 54 | 62 | 65 | 3 | | FU 05 - 09 | - 172 | - 161 | - 153 | - 165 | - 145 | 20 | | FU 09 - 01 | 116 | 109 | 99 | 103 | 80 | - 23 |[3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/07/03 | 2025/07/04 | 2025/07/07 | 2025/07/08 | 2025/07/09 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3522 | 3507 | 3495 | 3526 | 3568 | 42 | | LU 05 | 3455 | 3434 | 3426 | 3470 | 3472 | 2 | | LU 09 | 3623 | 3621 | 3619 | 3663 | 3692 | 29 | | LU 01 - 05 | 67 | - | 69 | 56 | 96 | 40 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 168 | - 187 | - 193 | - 193 | - 220 | - 27 | | LU 09 - 01 | 101 | 114 | 124 | 137 | 124 | - 13 |[4]

Core Viewpoint - The production of soda ash (sodium carbonate) in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region has experienced a significant decline in May 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%, indicating a notable downturn in the industry [1]. Group 1: May 2025 Production Data - The soda ash production in May 2025 reached 28,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.9% [1]. - The growth rate compared to the same period last year decreased by 24.7 percentage points [1]. - The production accounted for 0.9% of the national output of 3,166,000 tons during the same period [1]. Group 2: January to May 2025 Production Data - The total soda ash production from January to May 2025 was 177,000 tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.0% [1]. - The growth rate for this period was 13.7 percentage points lower than the previous year [1]. - This production represented 1.1% of the national total of 16,602,000 tons for the same timeframe [1].

Core Insights - The petroleum coke production in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region reached 110,000 tons in the first four months of 2025, marking a significant increase of 143.3% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - In April 2025 alone, the production was 31,000 tons, reflecting a growth of 174.4% year-on-year, which is substantially higher than the national growth rates [2] Group 1: Production Data - The cumulative petroleum coke production from January to April 2025 in Ningxia accounted for 1.0% of the national total production of 10,499,000 tons [1] - The April 2025 production represented 1.3% of the national total production of 2,435,000 tons for that month [2] Group 2: Growth Comparison - The growth rate of petroleum coke production in Ningxia for the first four months of 2025 exceeded the previous year's rate by 146.6 percentage points [1] - The April 2025 production growth rate was 180.6 percentage points higher than the same month in 2024 [2]

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/10 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/7/9 | 美元/桶 | 68.38 | 68.33 | 0.07% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/7/9 | 美元/桶 | 70.19 | 70.15 | 0.06% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/7/9 | 美元/吨 | 598.25 | 586.50 | 2.00% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国 | 2025/7/9 | 美元/吨 | 724.00 | 719.50 | 0.63% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/7/9 | 美元/吨 | 850.00 | 847.33 | 0.32% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/7/9 | 元/吨 | 4718.00 | ...

Supply and Demand - Domestic PX operating rates decreased to 81% (-2.8%), while Asian PX operating rates increased to 74.1% (+1.1%) [2] - PTA operating rates rose to 78.2% (+0.5%) [3] Price Trends - On July 9, Asian PX prices increased by $3/ton to $850/ton, equivalent to RMB 7009/ton [1] - The current spot market for PX is under pressure due to limited downstream polyester consumption and insufficient supply-side support [1] Market Outlook - PX supply-demand expectations remain tight due to new PTA production forecasts, while oil prices are expected to trend strong in the short term [4] - Strategies suggest a short-term long position for PX around 6600 [4]

能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 10 日 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 10 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...