Core Insights - Nvidia's recent open-source release of the Alpamayo series visual-language-action reasoning models, AlpaSim simulation tools, and an open dataset with over 1,700 hours of driving data marks a strategic shift from providing foundational computing power to building a comprehensive development ecosystem that includes algorithms, toolchains, and data infrastructure [2][21][25] Full-Stack Development Ecosystem - The full-stack development ecosystem includes model training, simulation, and deployment, with the training set in the dataset used for model training and the evaluation set used for simulation [4] - AlpaSim, in conjunction with Cosmos, generates long-tail scenarios for model training and utilizes Omiverse to provide a virtual traffic world for simulation [5] Long-Tail Challenge - The long-tail problem is identified as the most significant challenge facing autonomous driving systems, with the need for efficient generation of controllable long-tail scenarios and high-fidelity simulation environments being crucial for addressing this issue [10] - Elon Musk's comments highlight that while achieving high accuracy is possible, the real challenge lies in handling rare and complex long-tail scenarios that have not been encountered during training [7][10] Importance of AlpaSim - AlpaSim addresses the challenges of high costs, inefficiencies, and dangers associated with real-world data collection, providing a highly realistic digital parallel world for testing autonomous driving systems [12] - The tool allows developers to generate and control various rare and dangerous scenarios at low cost and high efficiency, serving as a risk-free data generator for model training and optimization [12] Alpamayo Model's Value - The Alpamayo model incorporates a visual-language-action (VLA) reasoning mechanism that enables it to process visual inputs and generate driving actions while internally reasoning about the scene, thus enhancing its ability to handle unknown long-tail scenarios [18] - This intrinsic reasoning capability allows the system to make generalized decisions based on physical knowledge and safety principles when faced with extreme scenarios not present in the training data [18] Strategic Implications - Nvidia's open-source initiative is seen as a strategic move to solidify its position in the autonomous driving industry, particularly in the burgeoning Robotaxi market, which is projected to be worth trillions [21][23] - By binding developers to its ecosystem through comprehensive solutions from chips to models and simulation tools, Nvidia aims to maintain its dominance in the foundational computing power and toolchain for autonomous driving [25]

值得一提的是，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在CES2026发布自动驾驶的开源VLA(视觉-语言-动作)大模型平台 Alpamayo。东方证券认为，随着英伟达自动驾驶生态持续拓展、高级别自动驾驶及Robotaxi渗透率逐步 提升，预计智驾芯片、激光雷达、域控制器、线控制动/转向等高级别自动驾驶相关零部件需求将迎来 快速增长，自动驾驶软硬件供应商将持续迎来发展机遇。 禾赛-W(02525)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.88%，报214.6港元，成交额5883.81万港元。 消息面上，中金研报指出，禾赛-W本月在CES2026上展示最新激光雷达技术成果，并更新交付量、产 能规划、战略合作等经营情况。量产交付能力领先行业；国内外产能稳步推进。L3车型获工信部准入 许可，激光雷达单车数量有望提升。Robotaxi、机械人等下一代物理AI浪潮袭来，激光雷达成关键引 擎。 ...

然而，大摩重申，在自动驾驶方面，特斯拉仍领先竞争对手数年，并点出其垂直整合能力、庞大的数据 优势、规模效应与成本优势。报告强调，英伟达的技术进展并未实质改变该行对特斯拉的基本看法，该 行的基准情境假设是未来十年整个产业将广泛采用相当于特斯拉L2 级以上FSD(全自动辅助驾驶)的技 术。尽管英伟达为车厂提供了一条资本效率较高、迈向先进自动驾驶的入口，但要真正开发并整合完整 的自驾技术堆叠，仍是以年为单位，而非以月计算。 摩根士丹利研报指出，英伟达近期大力推进实体AI布局，正引发市场对传统车厂能否以及多快能缩小 与特斯拉在自动驾驶上的差距提出新疑问。英伟达在消费性电子展(CES)的主题演讲将自动驾驶车与人 形机器人推向舞台中央，其中全新的Alpamayo系统成为最大焦点之一。大摩指出，这套技术堆叠的目 标在于加速原始设备制造商(OEM)迈向可规模化、具推理能力的自动驾驶，有潜力重塑驾驶辅助与自驾 系统的竞争格局。 ...

港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 消息面上，英伟达在CES 2026展会上推出名为Alpamayo的开源自动驾驶AI模型，黄仁勋称其为"世界上首款能思考、能推理 的自动驾驶汽车AI"。黄仁勋表示，首款搭载英伟达技术的汽车将于第一季度在美国上路，第二季度在欧洲上路，下半年在 亚洲上路。 另外还值得注意的是，美国自动驾驶将迎重大推进：国会即将讨论立法简化监管。美东时间1月13日，美国众议院的一个委 员会将举行听证会，讨论旨在简化无人驾驶车辆部署流程的相关立法。据悉，美国众议院能源与商务委员会下属小组委员 会计划举行听证会，并将审议多项提案草案，其中包括一项旨在将每年投入使用的自动驾驶汽车数量上限提高至90000辆的 提案，以及其他旨在解决汽车制造商对机器人出租车部署障碍的投诉的提案。 1月9日，港股智能驾驶概念股知行科技(1274.HK)盘中拉升涨超5%至7.1港元，为连续第五日上涨。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the release of "10 Surprises for 2026" by TBS and Bloomberg, continuing the legacy of Byron Wien, who was known for his contrarian market insights and predictions [1][2] Group 1: Predictions Overview - The predictions cover six key areas: autonomous driving, real estate, technology capital, monetary policy, trade policy, and cryptocurrency, each challenging market expectations [4] - Waymo's autonomous taxis are expected to expand into more U.S. cities by 2026, leading to discussions about banning human driving in urban centers [4] - New York City's rental policies are shifting towards taxing vacant properties, which is anticipated to slightly reduce rental prices amid housing supply challenges [5] - SpaceX's IPO is projected to significantly increase the valuation of Elon Musk's business empire, potentially making him the world's first trillionaire [6] Group 2: Monetary and Trade Policies - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate policy in 2026, resisting calls from former President Trump for rate cuts, emphasizing a focus on long-term economic stability [8] - The U.S. Supreme Court is likely to uphold Trump's tariff measures, which are not expected to have a significant impact on inflation, alleviating concerns about tariffs driving up prices [9] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Insights - Bitcoin is projected to attempt to reach its historical high from October 2025 but is unlikely to succeed, with its volatility expected to decrease, enhancing its perception as a store of value [10] - Financial products linked to Bitcoin are set to be introduced, targeting the baby boomer generation, which may broaden the appeal of cryptocurrency investments [10] Group 4: Anticipation for Remaining Predictions - The remaining four predictions have yet to be disclosed, generating significant interest among global investors and policy researchers, highlighting the value of contrarian thinking in identifying overlooked risks and opportunities [11]

Group 1: Macro Trends and Strategy - The report indicates that the overall industry prosperity index has shown signs of a turning point, with PMI exceeding expectations, particularly in upstream resources, public industries, TMT, and essential consumer goods [2] - Key drivers for the recent improvements include price increases in metals, coal, certain chemicals, and paper products, as well as advancements in AI applications, particularly in gaming and software [2] - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy focusing on both growth and cyclical sectors, recommending attention to industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, military industry, storage, gaming, and new energy [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Insights - The report discusses the emergence of "negative duration" strategies in the bond market, which have gained attention due to certain products appreciating despite overall market adjustments [3] - It highlights that the negative duration strategy involves using derivatives and short selling to create a portfolio with a negative duration, which is a more extreme form of hedging [3] - The report notes that while the strategy is gaining traction, it faces challenges such as performance benchmarks and regulatory attitudes in the domestic market [3] Group 3: Real Estate Sector Analysis - The report states that the sales advantages of leading real estate companies continue to consolidate, with the top 100 firms experiencing a narrowing decline in sales compared to the overall market [4] - It emphasizes that the concentration of resources among top firms has increased, with state-owned enterprises outperforming for six consecutive years [4] - The report anticipates that policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market will benefit leading firms with strong resource acquisition capabilities [4] Group 4: Aerospace and Defense Industry Outlook - The report highlights a significant increase in global defense spending, with the U.S. proposing to raise military expenditure from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion by FY2027, reflecting heightened international security concerns [5] - It notes that China's military trade market share remains low at 5.87% compared to the U.S. at 42.64%, indicating potential for growth in China's military exports [5] - The report suggests that the internationalization of Chinese military enterprises will be a key focus in the upcoming five-year plan, potentially leading to rapid development in military trade [5] Group 5: Key Company Insights - The report initiates coverage on WeRide (WRD US/800 HK) with a "buy" rating, projecting a target price of HKD 52 and USD 20, citing its dual focus on domestic and international markets [6] - It mentions that WeRide has established a significant Robotaxi fleet in the Middle East and is expanding its product offerings, which may not yet be fully reflected in its valuation [6] - The report also discusses Alibaba's expected revenue growth of 3.7% year-on-year for Q3 FY26, driven by AI cloud demand, although it anticipates challenges in e-commerce profitability due to weak GMV performance [7]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla CEO Elon Musk's goal for fully autonomous driving (FSD) has once again failed to materialize, with the promise of launching an unsupervised autonomous taxi service by the end of 2025 not being met [1][4] Group 1: Current Status of FSD - Tesla is currently only piloting its "autonomous taxi" service in Austin and San Francisco, which still requires staff oversight and an emergency stop switch, and is not open to all users [4] - The population in the pilot cities is far from reaching 50% of the total U.S. population, as previously promised by Musk [4] Group 2: Data Requirements and Adjustments - Musk has adjusted the requirement for achieving "safe unsupervised driving" to 10 billion miles of driving data, while Tesla's FSD system has only accumulated slightly over 7 billion miles [4] - The threshold for data needed for regulatory approval has been raised from 6 billion miles in 2016 to 10 billion miles currently, raising questions about the feasibility of Musk's previous commitments [4] Group 3: Legal and Competitive Landscape - Tesla's legal team is believed to play a crucial role in decision-making, as the current FSD system is classified as a Level 2 supervised system, which limits the company's liability in accidents [4] - Once the system transitions to unsupervised driving, Tesla will face significant liability pressures, especially as competitors like Waymo have already obtained licenses for unsupervised autonomous driving, leading to market skepticism about Tesla's technological capabilities [4]

Group 1 - Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale aims for market share growth with significant investment planned for 2026, focusing on high-value customers and non-food retail [4][5] - In Q4 2025, Taobao Flash Sale showed strong growth in GMV share and average order value, indicating a positive market position [4] - The strategy has sparked discussions among users, reminiscent of the competitive pricing seen during the "takeout war" in early 2025 [5] Group 2 - Former Xiaomi executive Wang Teng announced the establishment of a new company, "Today Yixiu," focusing on sleep health products, with a team primarily from Xiaomi and Huawei [7][9] - The company aims to address growing concerns about sleep and energy management, leveraging advancements in AI technology [7][9] Group 3 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is reviewing Meta's acquisition of AI platform Manus, assessing compliance with local laws regarding technology exports and cross-border mergers [11] - The acquisition, valued at $2 billion, is under scrutiny to ensure it does not violate export control regulations [11] Group 4 - Vanke's CEO Yu Liang has submitted his resignation due to retirement, marking the end of a significant era for the company [12][13] - Yu has been a pivotal figure in Vanke's history, leading the company through various phases of growth and challenges [13] Group 5 - XuanYuan Technology showcased its AI hardware at CES 2026, emphasizing the integration of AI agents with physical devices, with products priced at $22 [15][16] - The company aims to create personalized AI experiences while maintaining safety and precision in applications [15][16] Group 6 - JD.com has established a new "Chameleon Business Department" to develop AI toys for all age groups, with plans to launch new products in mid-January [18][19] - The company has made significant advancements in AI model technology, improving efficiency and reducing training costs [18][19] Group 7 - NIO plans to expand its international presence by entering the Australian and New Zealand markets in the second half of 2026, following its launch in Thailand [39][40] - The company aims to leverage its new "Firefly" brand for better market penetration in right-hand drive regions [39][40] Group 8 - Zhihui Technology, known as the "first stock of global large models," successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, achieving a market capitalization of approximately 57 billion HKD [29][30] - The company reported a significant increase in annual recurring revenue, indicating strong growth potential in its cloud-based services [31] Group 9 - Tesla plans to build a 2nm chip factory, challenging industry standards for cleanroom environments in semiconductor manufacturing [44][45] - CEO Elon Musk's ambitious vision includes producing advanced chips while maintaining a casual work environment [44][45] Group 10 - OpenAI has established a $50 billion employee stock incentive pool, reflecting its commitment to attracting and retaining top talent in the competitive AI landscape [51][52] - The company has seen rapid valuation growth, indicating strong market confidence in its future prospects [51][52]

Core Insights - The CES 2023 highlights a shift in the automotive industry, with a focus on autonomous driving technology rather than new electric vehicle (EV) models, indicating a significant trend towards automation in the next decade [1][3] - The competition between China and the U.S. in the autonomous driving sector is intensifying, with Chinese companies like Baidu's "Luobo Kuaipao" emerging as strong competitors to U.S. firms like Waymo [5][6] Group 1: Autonomous Driving Technology - NVIDIA's CEO predicts that autonomous driving will become one of the fastest-growing technology industries in the next ten years, emphasizing its importance [3] - The differences in autonomous driving services between the U.S. and China are notable, with Chinese services like "Luobo Kuaipao" operating without safety drivers and demonstrating quicker responses to complex situations compared to U.S. counterparts [2][5] - The Middle East is becoming a key market for autonomous driving, with companies like Baidu and WeRide obtaining licenses for fully autonomous operations, showcasing the region's supportive policies and unique challenges [6][7] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Trends - The global autonomous driving market is expected to see significant advancements, with predictions of widespread commercial deployment of autonomous taxis by 2030 [7] - The automotive industry is evolving towards a future where vehicles are not just modes of transport but also platforms for computing and energy storage, driven by AI and customization [8] - Despite leading in battery technology, Chinese automakers face challenges in the smart driving sector, indicating a need for advancements in autonomous driving capabilities to enhance market value [9]

与公司回购形成强力呼应的是，基石投资者也开展增持动作。1月8日，佑驾创新宣布，基石投资者 Horizon Together Holding Ltd.基于对公司业务的长期看好，近期已在公开市场合计购入68.82万股本公司 H股。 佑驾创新1月7日回购174.54万股H股，总支付金额为2579.94万港元，回购股份占公司已发行股份的 0.527%。 1月8日继续回购125.94万股H股，总支付金额为1907.92万港元。此次回购股份占已发行H股总数的 0.3823%。 2026年1月8日晚间，佑驾创新(02431)发布公告，截止2026年1月8日，公司于市场累计购回3,004,800股 本公司H股股份，总金额约44,878,604港元，平均价约每股H股股份14.94港元。 据悉，Horizon Together Holding Ltd.为地平线机器人(09660)全资子公司，此次增持源于双方多年的合作 积淀——地平线长期看好佑驾创新未来发展前景，认可其在地平线生态中的重要价值;同时，双方亦期 待通过技术与资源的双向赋能，携手加速L4无人物流车业务的发展进程。 公司董事会认为，目前的H股股份成交价并不反映H股股份的 ...