GUIDE 摘要 国泰君安：不确定因素增多，股指震荡仍会延续； 中金公司：A股全年市场整体表现有望好于2013年； 长江证券：A股市场的价值底已然形成； 中泰证券：看好AI在今年的全面爆发。 国 泰君安 不确定因素增多，股指震荡仍会延续 国泰君安指出，不确定因素增多，股市震荡已经开始。对于后市仍要明确： 1，由于已看到决策层扭转经济形势与支持资本市场的决心，因此2025年股市有望迎来结构性行情，调 仓不空仓； 2，2025年股市最大的动力来自无风险利率下降后，增量资金入市。长期债券利率"破2"后，看到居民对 固定收益的兴趣在下降，而对股票与权益的兴趣在改观，这是过去三年所没有的重要变化。 3，投资者对当前国际形势与经济形势仍有疑虑，预期的建立与改观需时日，因此股指运行会有N型节 奏而不是没有回调的"疯牛"。 就当前市场而言，不能把近期股市震荡简单理解为"性价比"降低，难以忽视市场在此前上涨计入较多乐 观预期与交易过热后， 下一阶段不确定性因素增多，政策短期暂难快速调整，投资者风险承担意愿会 下降，判断股指震荡仍会延续。 中金公司 A股全年市场整体表现有望好于2013年 中金公司认为， 结合当前宏观背景，A股全 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights significant changes in the executive leadership of securities firms since the beginning of 2024, with at least 13 firms undergoing personnel adjustments, primarily in key positions such as chairman, general manager, and chief information officer [2][10] - Guo Zhonghui has been appointed as the new president of Guokai Securities, succeeding Jiang Daozhen, who served for nearly three years [2][4] - Guokai Securities, with a registered capital of 9.5 billion yuan, is primarily owned by the National Development Bank, which holds 80% of the shares [4] Group 2 - Guokai Securities reported a total asset of 48.789 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.33%, and achieved a net profit of 4.34 billion yuan, up 5.54% from the previous year [6][7] - The firm has recently gained recognition as one of the 25 main underwriters of non-financial corporate debt financing tools, marking its entry into the full-license bond business [6] - Guokai Securities has a strong track record in bond underwriting, with a total issuance exceeding 16 trillion yuan since its establishment, maintaining a leading position in the market for railway bonds for nine consecutive years [6][7] Group 3 - The article notes that Guokai Securities primarily serves institutional clients in its brokerage business, focusing on stock reduction and investment consulting services [8] - The firm has streamlined its brokerage operations, having sold off nine branches in 2020, retaining only one to concentrate on the trading needs of its parent company [8] - The article also discusses the broader trend of executive turnover in the securities industry, particularly in the CIO role, driven by digital transformation pressures and strategic realignments [17]

Group 1 - The Jiangsu Provincial Organization Department announced the pre-appointment public notice indicating that Yin Lihong, the current Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee of Huatai Securities, is proposed to be appointed as the head of a provincial management leadership team [1] - Yin Lihong is 55 years old and has previously worked at Bank of China Nanjing Branch, Bank of China Jiangsu Branch, and Jiangsu Bank [1] - In 2021, Yin was transferred to Huatai Securities as Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee from his role as a senior expert and head of the Party Organization Department and Human Resources Department at Jiangsu Bank [1]

GUIDE 摘要 华西证券：A股和港股后续行情可能以震荡为主； 华西证券指出， A股和港股，或许均面临做多与兑现情绪相互交织的局面，两种情绪或将继续争夺定价 权，后续行情可能以震荡为主。 科技行情体现出强韧性，值得继续保持做多思维。同时，科技题材拥 挤度同样值得关注，如果拥挤度过高，且成交额下滑明显，题材可能出现切换及短期降温压力。 东吴证券：目前市场风格可能仍以成长类+制造类为主； 东吴 证 券 目前市场风格可能仍以成长类+制造类为主 富荣基金李延峥：当下仍应聚焦以产业趋势为主导的科技产业链。 华西证券 A股和港股后续行情可能以震荡为主 东吴证券研报指出，近期以机器人、AI为首的科技股成为市场焦点，经过一段时间上涨后，各种题材 股在高位强势整理，市场大幅低开后修复有序，午后权重及高位股走弱拖累盘面。两会前处于政策、业 绩、经济数据的真空期，对宏观政策和产业政策预期较强，资金相对活跃，因此弹性较高、有想象空间 的小盘风格收益高于大盘， 目前开始至两会之前，科技部分板块开始轮动，市场风格可能仍然以成长 类+制造类为主，科技仍有胜率。 同时，年报披露期间，业绩成为关键点，警惕亏损股、退市风险股。 富荣基金 当下仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of improving the positioning and governance of financial institutions to enhance their service to the real economy, aligning with the directives from the Chinese Communist Party's recent congresses [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Institution Positioning and Governance - Strong financial institutions are essential for building a financial powerhouse, and improving their governance is a critical step [2]. - Healthy financial institutions encompass not only a sound balance sheet but also effective corporate governance and internal control systems [2]. - Current challenges include inadequate internal control and service levels that do not align with the development of the real economy, necessitating prompt corrective measures [2][3]. Group 2: Economic and Financial Development - Enhancing the positioning and governance of financial institutions is key to improving service quality and is an inherent requirement for deepening financial supply-side structural reforms [2]. - A comprehensive and diverse financial service system has been established, but there is a need for a more effective incentive and constraint mechanism to ensure precise and efficient service to the real economy [2]. Group 3: Risk Prevention and Management - The interconnection between economic and financial risks necessitates improved governance and incentives for financial institutions to prevent blind expansion and promote sound operational principles [3]. Group 4: Financial System Collaboration - The financial system has been advancing towards high-quality development, focusing on meeting the financial service needs of society and enhancing the quality of financial services [4]. - As of Q3 2024, total assets of financial institutions in China approached 490 trillion yuan, with over 4,000 banking institutions, making it the largest banking sector globally [4]. Group 5: Financial Institution Reforms - Efforts are underway to enhance the core capital of state-owned banks and reform policy banks to better serve national strategies [5]. - Localized reforms are being implemented for rural credit cooperatives and village banks to improve their operational stability and service quality [5]. Group 6: Financial Support for the Real Economy - Financial institutions have been increasing their support for the real economy, with significant growth in loans to enterprises, particularly in manufacturing and small businesses [6][7]. - The People's Bank of China is promoting five key areas of financial support, including technology, green finance, and inclusive finance, to enhance the sustainability and specialization of financial services [7]. Group 7: Policy and Implementation - The structural monetary policy toolbox has been expanded to guide financial resources towards key areas of economic development [8]. - Measures are being taken to improve the service capabilities of financial institutions, including the use of modern technologies like big data and AI [8]. Group 8: Key Tasks for Financial Service Improvement - The financial service quality for the real economy needs enhancement, particularly in balancing indirect and direct financing and addressing the challenges faced by high-risk financial institutions [9]. - The focus is on deepening financial supply-side structural reforms to provide higher quality and more efficient financial services [9]. Group 9: Governance and Incentive Mechanisms - Improving corporate governance is essential for the long-term stability and service quality of financial institutions [11]. - A modern enterprise system that aligns with international standards is being established to enhance internal management and risk control [11]. Group 10: Supervision and Assessment - Continuous adjustments to the structural monetary policy tools are necessary to optimize credit structures and enhance the quality of financial services [12]. - Strengthening supervision and implementing differentiated regulatory policies will help ensure that financial institutions adhere to their designated roles and avoid reckless expansion [12].

证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 18 日 星期二 【2 月 17 日期权全市场数据的可视化概览】 图 1. 各大标的期权的重要数据可视化概览 由下图 2 可知，根据多空择时系统综合打分得到，所有标的的多空信号为：谨慎看多。 图 2. 多空择时系统综合打分结果 表 1. 基于标的的多空判断结果推荐期权策略类型 | 期权标的 | 标的多空 | 牛市 | 熊市价 | 买入宽跨 | 卖出宽跨 | 买入偏实 | 买入偏虚 | 卖出远月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 综合判断 | 价差 | 差策略 | 式策略 | 式策略 | 值期权策 | 值期权策 | 深虚期权 | | | 结果 | 策略 | | | | 略 | 略 | 策略 | 本报告的风险等级为高风险。 特别提示：由于期权价格波动较大，变化速度快，风险较大，敬请投资者控制风险。期权有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读末页声明。 1 数据来源：东莞证券研究所，wind 数据来源：东莞证券研究所，wind 财富通期权每日策略 | 上证 50ETF | 谨慎看多 | 可选 | 可 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 17 日 星期一 【2 月 14 日期权全市场数据的可视化概览】 图 1. 各大标的期权的重要数据可视化概览 由下图 2 可知，根据多空择时系统综合打分得到，所有标的的多空信号为：谨慎看多。 图 2. 多空择时系统综合打分结果 表 1. 基于标的的多空判断结果推荐期权策略类型 | 期权标的 | 标的多空 | 牛市 | 熊市价 | 买入宽跨 | 卖出宽跨 | 买入偏实 | 买入偏虚 | 卖出远月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 综合判断 | 价差 | 差策略 | 式策略 | 式策略 | 值期权策 | 值期权策 | 深虚期权 | | | 结果 | 策略 | | | | 略 | 略 | 策略 | 本报告的风险等级为高风险。 特别提示：由于期权价格波动较大，变化速度快，风险较大，敬请投资者控制风险。期权有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读末页声明。 1 -8.00% -7.00% -6.00% -5.00% -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00 ...

一、主办券商业绩排名 文/梧桐数据中心 2024年，新三板共计有350家公司成功挂牌，其中基础层159家，创新层155家。中介机构业绩方面，开源证券保荐27单，位列第一；国泰君安、中信建投各20单， 并列第二；上海锦天城业务单数为52单，位列第一；北京德恒、北京中伦各30单，并列第二；立信、天健、容诚占据会计师事务所业绩前三名。 2024年，共有59家券商为这350家新三板挂牌公司提供了保荐服务。 第二名：国泰君安（20单）、中信建投（20单） 第四名：东吴证券（16单） 第五名：申万宏源（15单） | 1 | 开源证券 | 27 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | 国泰君安 | 20 | | 2 | 中信建投 | 20 | | 4 | 东吴证券 | 16 | | 5 | 申万宏源 | 15 | | 6 | 国金证券 产同 六六 13 | | | 6 | 海通证券TONWOOD TREE | | | 6 | 长江证券 | 13 | | 6 | 国投证券 | 13 | | 10 | 民生证券 | 12 | | 10 | 中信证券 | 12 | | 12 | 东方证券 | 10 | | 12 ...

中信证券排名第一，业务单数为2单；东兴证券、国元证券、华泰联合证券、平安证券、申港证券、申万宏源证券、天风证券、中国银河证券、中泰证券、中信建 投证券这10家券商各1单。 文/梧桐数据中心 随着1月27日海博思创（688411）、亚联机械（001395）两家公司成功上市，2025年1月A股合计新上市公司12家，其中沪市主板1家、科创板4家、深市主板2家、 创业板4家、北交所1家。相较去年同期的14家，同比下降14.29%。这12家新上市公司募资净额为62.70亿元，相较去年同期的106.99亿元，同比下降42.82%。 一、保荐机构业绩排名 2025年1月，共有11家保荐机构承担了这12家新上市公司的IPO上市业务。 | 1 | 本六世須 | TV | | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | 、国元証券TONWOOD TREE | | | 2 | 华泰联合证券 | 1 | | 2 | 平安证券 | 1 | | 2 | 申港证券 | 1 | | 2 | 申万宏源证券 | 1 | | 2 | 一天风证券 | | | 2 01 | 中国银河证券 | | | 2 | 中泰证券 | | | 2 | 中信建投 ...

1月24日，广东证监局发布3份监管函，事关平安证券及2名保代。 文/梧桐兄弟 据披露， 平安证券 是昆腾微电子股份有限公司（以下简称 昆腾微 ）首次公开发行股票并在 科创板上市 的 保荐机构 。 为避免昆腾微第一大股东向管理层及员工低 价转让股份事项构成股份支付，你公司项目组为昆腾微设计解决方案并推动实施，以掩盖真实交易。 上述事项导致 昆腾微申请首次公开发行股票并在科创板上市 申请文件 存在虚假记载 。 值得注意的是，该项目组实际团队负责人彭朝晖、签字保荐代表人李广辉， 均参与沟通设计了上述解决方案。 关于对平安证券股份有限公司采取出具警示函措施的决定 平安证券股份有限公司： 经查，你公司是昆腾微电子股份有限公司（以下简称昆腾微）首次公开发行股票并在科创板上市的保荐机构。 为 避免昆腾微第一大股东向管理层及员工低价转 让股份事项构成股份支付，你公司项目组为昆腾微设计解决方案并推动实施，以掩盖真实交易。 上述事项导致昆腾微申请首次公开发行股票并在科创板上市申 请文件存在虚假记载。 你公司上述行为违反了《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办法》(证监会令第170号）第五条第一款的规定。根据《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办法》 ...