巴西国家供应公司（Conab）数据显示，2024/2025作物季，巴西大豆产量升至63 亿蒲式耳（1蒲式耳等 于27.216千克），成为出口量增长的基础。与此同时，巴西农民正受益于来自中国的强劲需求。据巴西 通讯社报道，代表600万美国农民的美国农业局联合会的一项调查显示，受关税冲突影响，从6月到8 月，美国对华大豆出口"几乎为零"，并且中国未采购任何美国明年收获的新作大豆，此举为巴西、阿根 廷等其他国家的供应商提供了新的市场机会。 该组织表示，2025年1月至8月，中国仅从美国进口580万吨大豆，同比下降近80%。相比之下，巴西成 为对华大豆主要供应国。同期，巴西向中国市场出口超过7700万吨大豆。阿根廷在暂停出口税后增加大 豆销售，并在出口额超过70亿美元后退还了税款，此举推动了该国对中国大豆销售的增长。香港《南华 早报》近日报道称，阿根廷大豆出口订单9月飙升至7年高点，中国进口商在出口税暂停期间采购了数百 万吨。 【环球时报报道 记者 杨舒宇】巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）8日公布的数据显示，截至10月底， 巴西大豆出口量预计将达到1.022亿吨，超过2024年和2023年全年的出口量。路透社分析称 ...

10月1日，西安国际港站汽笛长鸣，一列满载货物的中欧班列缓缓启动，驶向俄罗斯莫斯科。在这趟列车上，两个特殊的冷链冷柜格外引人注目——里面 整齐码放着来自四川会理的20吨黑籽酸石榴和来自西安周至的22.4吨海沃德猕猴桃。这是杨凌示范区内企业——杨凌国合跨境贸易有限公司首次通过铁路 冷链运输将新鲜水果直接送往俄罗斯市场，标志着杨凌在构建国际农产品冷链物流通道上迈出关键一步。 "未来，我们将继续整合优质农产品资源，优化冷链运输方案，推动更多特色农产品通过这条'钢铁丝路'走向国际市场，助力现代农业高质量发展。"王斌 信心满满地说。 火车从西安出发，经满洲里口岸出境，直达莫斯科沃尔西诺站。最关键的是，搭载的全自动冷藏冷柜具备恒温恒湿功能，在跨境换装（如从中国标准轨换 至俄罗斯宽轨）时，只需整体吊装冷柜，柜内环境丝毫不受影响。运输途中，柜体全程密封，温度稳定维持在设定范围，并通过远程监控系统实时反馈数 据，确保每一颗石榴、每一个猕猴桃都处在最佳保鲜状态。 "对比之前的汽运模式，中欧班列不仅时效稳定，成本优势也非常明显。"杨凌现代农业国际合作集团有限公司副总经理王斌算了一笔经济账，"铁路运输 受天气、路况影响小，单位运量更 ...

特朗普在8月时曾亲自推销美国的大豆，但并没有收到预期的回应。美国农业州的农民开始向华府发声，抱怨找不到买家，收割机的忙碌却没有人前来购 买。到了10月1日，特朗普终于在社交媒体上表示，他计划在即将召开的APEC峰会上将大豆问题作为一个"主要议题"进行讨论。他甚至表示，将用从关税 中"赚到的钱"来补贴农民，同时指责前任总统拜登，让中国放弃了数十亿美元的大豆订单。 从今年5月起，中国已经没有再从美国进口大豆，这一变化意味着27年来的首次。造成这一局面的，是双方互相加征的高额关税。美国挑起了贸易冲突，而 中国则做出了回应。虽然两国的行动都符合贸易规则，但它们的后果却充满了冲突。 此前，中美曾达成共识，暂停关税战，窗口期持续到11月10号。如果无法达成协议，美国计划对中国加征145%的关税，中方则会对美方加征125%的关税。 这一举措几乎意味着双方的贸易将陷入全面瘫痪。美国的通胀将会飙升，普通家庭的生活成本将会进一步增加。而美国这两年已经面临着较大的生活成本压 力，牛奶、鸡蛋和汽油等商品的价格，已经让不少家庭感到吃力。这些问题远不是简单的政治话术，而是美国人日常生活中的真实困境。 许多人猜测，中国会不会在APEC峰会 ...

贸易寒流突袭加拿大：油菜籽困局背后的地缘政治博弈 这场贸易风暴，起于邻里关系急剧恶化之际，加拿大猛然发现，自己手中引以为傲的"王牌"，不过是一捧脆弱的菜籽。 萨斯喀彻温省的农场主詹姆斯，在得知中国对加拿大油菜籽加征75%关税的消息后，惊愕地打翻了手中的热咖啡。去年他与本地粮食收购商签订的480吨供 货协议，原本计划全部销往中国，如今收购价暴跌三成，银行催收贷款的电话比清晨的闹钟还要准时。社交媒体上，同行们绝望的呼喊此起彼伏，不少农场 已挂出紧急出售的告示牌。 时间拨回到3月8日，中国商务部发布公告，明确列出加税商品清单。3月20日新政生效当天，加拿大出口商的聊天群里充斥着绝望的叹息，各个港口的仓库 里油菜籽堆积如山，而预订的货船却迟迟不见踪影。统计数据显示，2024年度加拿大向中国出口的油菜籽总额高达五十亿加元，其中八成是未经加工的原料 籽，萨斯喀彻温省贡献了全国总产量的三分之一。 中国这次的贸易限制措施，相当于直接将最大的采购客户从合作名单中移除。农业家庭面临巨额亏损却无处申诉，粮食贸易公司开始大规模裁员，连物流运 输企业也不得不实施降薪。从种植端到加工端，整条产业链上的每个环节都在质问：为何没有及早预见这 ...

2025年上半年，美国大豆出口到中国的数字就开始往下掉得厉害。从1月到7月，总量只有590万吨，比 去年同期少了39%。这数据一出来，中西部那些种豆的农场主就坐不住了。到了8月，情况更糟，整个8 个月下来，美国对华大豆出口才2.18亿蒲式耳，对比2024年同期的9.85亿蒲式耳，简直是断崖式下滑。 中国那边直接把采购重心挪到南美，巴西和阿根廷的豆子源源不断运过来，价格还稳得住。9月一过， 中国买美国豆的记录直接清零，关税战升级后，美国豆子进中国市场得额外扛34%的关税，这成本谁受 得了。 美国农业部的数据摆在那儿，黑纸白字。全国大豆库存堆到2200万吨的历史新高，其中至少700万吨就 是卖不出去的死库存。期货市场从年初每蒲式耳12美元一路跌到10美元出头，农民算账算得头疼，每亩 地亏200多美元不是开玩笑。玉米和小麦这些关联作物也跟着遭殃，价格集体跳水，信贷公司一看报表 就开始收紧口子，物流那边直接砍班次，有些地方的农场雇工都开始打包走人。这不光是豆子的事儿， 整个农业链条都跟着抖三抖。 特朗普第二任期刚开头，就把贸易战这把火烧得更旺。1月20日宣誓那天，他就签文件加关税，农业产 品直接中枪。3月3日，他在社 ...

一列运载木薯淀粉的国际铁路班列停靠在内江国际物流港（资料照片）。新华社发 新华社成都10月4日电 题：一捧木薯淀粉的奶茶"珍珠"之旅 木薯在全球多个区域均有种植，而在中老铁路这条国际物流大通道开通后，来自东南亚尤其是老挝的木薯淀粉成为中国西南地区企业的主要 选择之一。 近日，一列满载优质木薯淀粉的中老铁路回程班列顺利抵达四川省泸州港。班列满载25个集装箱、625吨木薯淀粉从老挝琅勃拉邦出发，穿越 崇山峻岭，经过5天时间抵达终点，除泸州本地使用外，还将分拨至周边区域。 "以前东南亚的木薯淀粉主要经海江联运过来，运输耗时长、资金占用成本高。"泸州市口岸和物流办公室副主任朱秋润说，"中老班列开通 后，运输时间和资金占用成本均大幅下降，让两地贸易更加活跃。" 不止是泸州，位于成渝中间地带的内江市充分利用内江保税物流中心（B型）的优势，积极拓展老挝木薯淀粉进口业务。"物流成本下降 35%，通关效率提升了10%。"内江市口岸与物流发展中心相关负责人马广锋说，内江致力于打造川南地区木薯淀粉进口集散中心。 "今年以来已累计进口约1590吨。"内江蓉欧投资开发有限公司董事长王思维说，下一步将继续扩大进口规模，预计实现每月约80 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the US-China trade war on the soybean market, highlighting the shift in China's soybean sourcing from the US to Brazil, which has significant implications for US farmers and the political landscape in the Midwest [1][3][15] Economic Impact - The US soybean market heavily relies on exports, with China previously accounting for up to 60% of US soybean exports. However, this share has dropped to 18% as Brazil has become the largest supplier to China [3] - In 2025, despite a bumper crop in the US, soybean prices are expected to plummet, leading to a significant reduction in farmers' incomes [5] - The political ramifications are evident as key Republican states, which are major soybean producers, are experiencing discontent among farmers towards Trump's policies [5][7] Political Dynamics - The article notes that the US government has attempted to mitigate the situation by negotiating trade agreements that require other countries to purchase US agricultural products, but these measures have proven ineffective [7][9] - The Republican Party is considering reallocating funds from nutritional assistance to support farmers, but this aid may not arrive in time to address immediate concerns [9] Global Market Dynamics - The US is the second-largest producer and exporter of soybeans, traditionally holding significant pricing power in the global market. However, major grain companies dominate over 80% of the global grain trade, influencing soybean prices [11] - China is actively working to increase its influence in the soybean market by developing its futures market and diversifying its import sources beyond the US, including Brazil, Argentina, and Russia [13][15] Future Outlook - The article suggests that as China continues to diversify its soybean imports and enhance its domestic production capabilities, the US's reliance on the Chinese market may diminish, altering the global agricultural trade landscape [15]

Core Point - An agreement between Britain and the European Union to reduce trade friction on agricultural produce could be implemented within a year if there is "good political will" [1] Group 1 - The agreement was struck in May and aims to facilitate smoother trade in agricultural products [1] - EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic emphasized the potential for implementation within a year [1]

Group 1 - The new U.S. government's attempts to reshape the global landscape through diplomatic mediation and economic pressure have faced significant setbacks, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global tariff wars, marking a severe policy deviation since 1945 [2][4][18] - The U.S. has struggled to effectively coordinate with European partners in mediating the Russia-Ukraine situation, leading to a perception of isolation in its diplomatic efforts [4][6] - The imposition of tariffs on imports from countries like China, Japan, and South Korea has revealed weaknesses in U.S. policy, as these nations have resisted additional restrictions, impacting U.S. economic interests [6][14] Group 2 - The U.S. has shifted its beef and soybean imports from domestic sources to Brazil and Argentina, resulting in a 20% increase in supply while maintaining stable prices [8] - The suspension of Boeing aircraft deliveries has led to over $20 billion in losses for the U.S. aviation industry, prompting a 30% increase in domestic production of the C919 aircraft [8][16] - The U.S. has implemented strict licensing for rare earth exports, causing delays in military production and increasing costs, with a 15% delay in F-35 components [10][12] Group 3 - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to maintain high interest rates has exacerbated economic pressures, with bond yields rising from 4% to 4.5% and a 10% fluctuation in the dollar's exchange rate [10][12] - The U.S. has seen a gradual reduction in its holdings of Treasury bonds, dropping from $784.3 billion at the beginning of the year to $730.7 billion by July, marking a 16-year low [12][14] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings has led to increased volatility in yields, complicating U.S. financing efforts [14][18] Group 4 - The failure of U.S. mediation efforts has emboldened Russia and accelerated the trend of de-dollarization in global trade [18] - The U.S. is advised to continue reducing its Treasury bond holdings and diversify into gold and euros to safeguard its interests while promoting the internationalization of the renminbi [18]

Group 1 - Argentina's government announced the immediate cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans and their products, previously set at 26% for soybeans and 24.5% for soybean oil and meal, effective until October 31 [3][5] - This decision was made in response to Argentina's precarious economic situation, with foreign reserves dropping below critical levels and the peso experiencing significant depreciation, prompting the central bank to sell $1.1 billion to stabilize the currency [5] - The announcement led to a surge in demand from Chinese buyers, resulting in contracts for 1.3 million tons of soybeans worth $7 billion being signed within 48 hours, causing the peso to rise by 4.5%, the largest single-day increase in five months [5][7] Group 2 - The sudden policy shift negatively impacted U.S. soybean farmers, who have seen a drastic decline in Chinese purchases since tariffs were imposed in 2025, leading to a record inventory of 43.8 million tons, the highest since 1988 [5][7] - The U.S. had anticipated that China would return to purchasing American soybeans after Brazil's harvest season, but Argentina's move disrupted these expectations [5][7] - The rapid implementation and subsequent reversal of the zero-tariff policy highlighted the government's strategy of trading short-term gains for political breathing room, raising concerns about the long-term impact on domestic agriculture [7][8] Group 3 - Chinese buyers benefited from the situation, purchasing Argentine soybeans at prices $30 to $50 per ton lower than U.S. soybeans, indicating a shift in import sources from the U.S. to Argentina and Brazil [8] - The event underscores the dynamic nature of global trade, where market forces prioritize cost-effectiveness over long-standing trade relationships [8]