证券研究报告 新鸿基地产 (16 HK) 港股通 业绩增速亮眼，租金彰显韧性 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 2 月 | 27 日│中国香港 | 房地产开发 | 目标价(港币): | 164.37 | 公司发布 FY26 上半财年业绩，FY1H26 实现营收 527 亿港币，同比+32%； 核心归母净利润 122 亿港币，同比+17%，而彭博一致预期 FY26 全年增速 为 5%；中期 DPS 为 0.98 港币，同比+3%。在内地开发结转放量等因素的 推动下，公司核心净利润同比增速亮眼，同时租金表现具备韧性，压降负债 后开始积极拓展香港土储。我们预计公司将持续受益于香港房地产市场复 苏，并在投资物业和租金规模上具备成长性。维持"买入"评级。 业绩增速亮眼，主因内地开发结转放量+投资物业出售+利息节省 FY1H26 公司核心净利润同比增速亮眼，主要因为：1、内地物业开发分部 利润同比+27 亿港币，主要来自杭州和苏州高利润项目的结转放量；2、出 售香港投资物业（帝景园、S ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Sunshine New Industry Real Estate Co., Ltd., reported a net loss of 218.21 million yuan for the year 2025, leading to a decision not to distribute dividends or issue new shares [17][40][42]. Company Overview - The company operates in three main business segments: commercial operation management, property leasing, and housing sales, achieving stable development during an industry adjustment period [4][8]. - The commercial operation management segment focuses on providing lifecycle management services for commercial projects, aiming to maximize asset value [5]. - The property leasing segment targets core projects in first and second-tier cities, maintaining high occupancy rates through tailored leasing strategies [6]. - The housing sales segment emphasizes optimizing sales strategies based on market demand, particularly for specific projects in Beijing and Chengdu [8]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of -218.21 million yuan for 2025, with an ending retained earnings of 538.62 million yuan on a consolidated basis [17][40]. - The company plans to not distribute cash dividends, issue new shares, or increase capital from reserves due to the reported loss [17][42]. Shareholder Changes - In late 2025 and early 2026, significant share transfers occurred, resulting in Liu Dan becoming the controlling shareholder with a 29.97% stake in the company [11][12]. Board Meeting Resolutions - The board of directors approved several key reports and plans, including the annual work report and the profit distribution plan, which will be submitted for shareholder approval [13][15][17]. - The board also discussed the company's internal control self-evaluation report and the annual audit report, both of which received unanimous approval [20][19]. Valuation Enhancement Plan - The company is required to develop a valuation enhancement plan due to its stock being classified as a long-term undervalued company, with share prices consistently below net asset value [47][48]. - The plan includes focusing on core commercial property operations, optimizing asset structures, and enhancing cash flow management [50][51]. - The company aims to strengthen communication with its controlling shareholder to stabilize market confidence and enhance investor relations [52][53]. Upcoming Shareholder Meeting - The company will hold its 2025 annual shareholder meeting on March 6, 2026, to discuss various proposals, including the profit distribution plan and the valuation enhancement plan [62][68].

Core Viewpoint - Hang Lung Properties has reported its 2025 annual performance, showing a decline in total revenue but an increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating resilience in core profitability despite revenue contraction [1]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue decreased by 11% year-on-year to HKD 9.95 billion, primarily due to a drop in property sales [1]. - Rental income from properties, which remains the core pillar, slightly declined by 1% to HKD 9.389 billion, accounting for 94.36% of total revenue [2]. - Rental income from mainland China and Hong Kong was HKD 6.414 billion and HKD 2.975 billion, reflecting year-on-year declines of 1% and 2%, respectively [2]. Regional Performance - Mainland shopping mall business showed strong resilience, with overall rental income increasing by 1% year-on-year to RMB 4.871 billion, while tenant sales rose by 4% [2]. - Key projects in Shanghai, such as Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza and Shanghai Port International Hang Lung Plaza, contributed significantly to rental income, achieving revenues of RMB 1.661 billion and RMB 1.197 billion, respectively [2]. - Other cities like Wuxi, Dalian, and Kunming also experienced notable revenue growth, with increases of 10%, 12%, and 9% respectively [2]. Challenges in Certain Markets - Some city projects faced significant revenue declines, particularly Wuhan and Shenyang, with income dropping by over 30% [3]. - Hong Kong retail property income fell by 4% to HKD 1.742 billion, indicating weaker operational vitality compared to mainland malls [4]. Office Leasing Performance - Office leasing faced considerable pressure, with total revenue from this segment declining by 8% in mainland China to RMB 1.005 billion, while Hong Kong saw a slight decrease of 1% to HKD 1.004 billion [4]. - The occupancy rate for Hong Kong office properties was 90%, while mainland properties maintained around 80% [5]. Strategic Adjustments - In response to market adjustments and regional business disparities, Hang Lung Properties has adopted the "Hang Lung V.3" strategy, focusing on existing projects rather than expanding into new cities [6]. - The strategy includes acquiring adjacent properties for expansion and upgrading, with significant projects signed in Shanghai and Wuxi to enhance retail space [7]. - The company aims to leverage existing project efficiencies and operational upgrades, although reliance on current market demand poses potential long-term growth risks [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company announced the approval of the expected related party transactions for the year 2026, amounting to 33.3 million yuan, which does not require shareholder meeting approval [1] Summary by Categories Related Party Transactions - The expected related party transactions for 2026 are estimated at 33.3 million yuan, while the 2025 expected transactions were 34.5 million yuan, with actual transactions amounting to 17.9692 million yuan [1] - The difference in 2025 is attributed to the change in sourcing of certain products, reduced promotional investments by suppliers, and tax law impacts on rental payments [1] - The 2026 related party transactions include purchasing goods worth 28 million yuan from Jiangxi Qingyuan District Hengxin Industrial Co., Ltd., providing promotional services for 100,000 yuan, and leasing properties from Hu Jinkun and Jiang Shulan for 5.2 million yuan [1] Fairness Principle - The related party transactions are conducted in accordance with the principle of fairness and are stated to have no adverse impact on the company [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Qunxing Toys has experienced a decline in stock price and has low financing balance, indicating potential liquidity issues [1] - On January 30, Qunxing Toys' stock fell by 2.70%, with a trading volume of 616 million yuan, and a net financing purchase of 12.73 million yuan [1] - As of January 30, the total financing and securities lending balance for Qunxing Toys is 131 million yuan, which is 3.03% of its market capitalization, indicating a low financing level compared to the past year [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Qunxing Toys increased by 7.73% to 40,200, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 7.18% to 14,689 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Qunxing Toys reported a revenue of 281 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.32%, but a net profit loss of 21.36 million yuan, a decrease of 107.04% compared to the previous year [2] Group 3 - Since its A-share listing, Qunxing Toys has distributed a total of 60.21 million yuan in dividends, but there have been no dividend distributions in the last three years [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The leasing revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year, primarily due to the depreciation of the renminbi, while operating profit increased by 1% and underlying profit improved by 3% [8][9] - The net gearing ratio decreased to 32.7%, lower than the previous year, aided by a scrip dividend arrangement and reduced capital expenditures [29][66] - Overall finance costs declined by 8% due to lower borrowing costs, while net finance costs increased by 3% due to a lower capitalization ratio [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Mainland rental revenue remained flat year-on-year, with retail revenue up by 1% and office revenue facing headwinds, down by 8% [9][19] - In Hong Kong, retail revenue decreased by 2%, but the company managed to mitigate a larger decline from 4% in the first half [9][24] - New letting increased by 15% and renewals by 5%, indicating active management efforts [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record high footfall and occupancy rates, with significant growth in non-luxury segments, particularly in F&B and experiential offerings [16][54] - The mainland office market is expected to face challenges for another 18 to 24 months due to high supply and tenant bargaining power [20][22] - Hong Kong's retail landscape is seen as more structural, with a slower recovery expected compared to the cyclical nature of mainland retail [62] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company introduced its V.3 strategy, focusing on faster project execution with minimal capital expenditure, leveraging existing resources and relationships [3][5] - The strategy aims to enhance market share in key cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, Wuxi, and Kunming, with a focus on community and physical footprint [5][36] - The company plans to continue its emphasis on both luxury and non-luxury segments, adapting to changing consumer behaviors [59][60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged ongoing corrections in both Hong Kong and mainland markets, with a cautious outlook for luxury retail but optimism for non-luxury segments [6][53] - The company expects to stabilize its performance in 2026, with a focus on enhancing customer engagement and capturing growth opportunities [55][61] - The management remains cautious about the luxury market's recovery, despite a strong fourth quarter performance [54][55] Other Important Information - The company plans to celebrate its 66th anniversary with increased consumer-focused marketing efforts [17] - The CapEx guidance for 2026 is around HKD 3.1 billion, decreasing in subsequent years as the company moves past its peak CapEx cycle [63][65] Q&A Session Summary Question: CEO succession plans and qualities sought in a new CEO - The outgoing CEO expressed a personal goal to retire at 55, emphasizing family time and the board was informed a year in advance about his decision [43][45][46] - The chairman indicated that the search for a new CEO is ongoing, with no specific timeline announced yet [51] Question: Outlook for Mainland China retail and tenant sales - Management remains cautiously optimistic about tenant sales growth, with a strong performance in non-luxury segments noted [44][52] - January sales figures are expected to be comparable to last year, with the timing of Chinese New Year impacting results [58] Question: Performance of Wuhan and Shenyang malls post-repositioning - The company is monitoring the repositioning process in these markets, with expectations for stabilization in performance by 2026 or 2027 [72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The leasing revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year, primarily due to the depreciation of the renminbi, while operating profit increased by 1% and underlying profit improved by 3% compared to 2024 [8][9] - The net gearing ratio decreased to 32.7%, lower than the previous year, aided by a scrip dividend arrangement and reduced capital expenditures [32][66] - Overall finance costs declined by 8% due to lower borrowing costs, although net finance costs increased by 3% due to a lower capitalization ratio [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Mainland rental revenue remained flat year-on-year, with retail revenue up by 1% and office revenue facing headwinds, expected to continue for 18-24 months [10][20] - In Hong Kong, retail revenue decreased by 2%, but the decline was mitigated from a previous 4% drop in the first half of the year [9][24] - The residential segment showed positive momentum with significant sales in the Blue Pool Road project, indicating a recovery in the Hong Kong residential market [29][73] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The mainland market is experiencing structural and cyclical corrections, with a cautious outlook for the office sector due to increased supply and tenant bargaining power [7][20] - Hong Kong's retail market is seen as more structural, with a slower recovery expected compared to the cyclical nature of the mainland market [63][64] - The company reported record-high foot traffic and sales in Q4, driven by non-luxury segments, while luxury brands showed mixed performance [54][56] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company introduced its V3 strategy, focusing on scaling with minimal capital expenditure and faster project execution, aiming to enhance market share in key cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou [4][6][37] - The strategy emphasizes leveraging existing resources and relationships to improve return on investment and return on equity [6][37] - The company plans to continue enhancing its non-luxury offerings while maintaining a balanced approach to luxury retail [61] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about the retail outlook in mainland China, with expectations for gradual recovery in tenant sales [54][56] - The company is preparing for potential foreign investment returns to China, which could positively impact the office market [23] - Management remains conservative about the luxury segment's recovery, noting that growth has primarily come from non-luxury categories [56][58] Other Important Information - The company is celebrating its 66th anniversary in 2026, planning to enhance consumer engagement through various marketing initiatives [18][55] - The company has achieved significant improvements in its ESG goals, including a 42% reduction in carbon emissions [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: CEO succession plans and qualities sought in a new CEO - The outgoing CEO clarified that retirement was a personal goal and not a surprise to the board, emphasizing the importance of family time [47][49] - The board is actively seeking a successor and will announce details when available, with an advisory role for the outgoing CEO confirmed [52][53] Question: Outlook for Mainland China retail and tenant sales - Management noted that Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with record-breaking sales and foot traffic, but remains cautious about future growth in luxury retail [54][56] Question: Leasing strategy for 2026 and performance stabilization in Wuhan and Shenyang - The company plans to continue adding experiential non-luxury spaces and is optimistic about stabilization in repositioned malls by 2026 or 2027 [77]

January 2026 Contents 2025 Annual Results Announcement 2025 Annual Results Investor Presentation 2025 Annual Results Presentation 03 2025 Annual Results Highlights 19 Hang Lung V.3 24 ESG Highlights 36 Chinese Mainland Portfolio 40 Hong Kong Portfolio 45 Development Highlights 48 Appendix 49 HLP – Financial Highlights and Position 52 HLG – Financial Highlights and Position 2025 Annual Results Highlights Hang Lung Properties (101.HK) | | | | Operating | | Underlying | | HLP – | | Dividends per share | | | -- ...

January 2026 2025 Annual Results Presentation Contents 2025 Annual Results Announcement 2025 Annual Results Investor Presentation 03 2025 Annual Results Highlights 19 Hang Lung V.3 24 ESG Highlights 36 Chinese Mainland Portfolio 40 Hong Kong Portfolio 45 Development Highlights 48 Appendix 49 HLP – Financial Highlights and Position 52 HLG – Financial Highlights and Position 2025 Annual Results Highlights Hang Lung Properties (101.HK) | | | | Operating | | Underlying | | HLP – | | Dividends per share | | | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - Hang Lung Properties (00101) experienced a midday surge, rising over 2% after an initial drop of more than 2.5%, with a current price of HKD 9.57 and a trading volume of HKD 168 million [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Hang Lung Properties reported total revenue of HKD 9.95 billion, a decrease of 11% compared to the previous year [1] - The decline in revenue was primarily due to a significant drop in property sales revenue, which fell by 83% to HKD 264 million [1] - Overall operating profit increased by 1% to HKD 6.53 billion, despite challenges in the rental market [1] Rental and Sales Performance - The rental income and operating profit from property leasing both decreased by 1%, amounting to HKD 9.39 billion and HKD 6.66 billion, respectively, influenced by a weak office leasing market in mainland China and a slower-than-expected economic recovery in Hong Kong [1] - Shareholders' attributable net profit rose by 3% to HKD 3.20 billion, indicating resilience despite the downturn in property sales [1] Earnings and Dividends - Basic earnings per share were reported at HKD 0.65, with a proposed final dividend of HKD 0.40 per share [1]