（来源：猪兜） 近期，我国商务部公布了对欧盟进口猪肉及猪副产品反倾销调查的初步裁定，实施临时反倾销措施，对 相关产品征收15.6%至62.4%的保证金。这一举措不仅是对国际贸易规则的合理运用，更是对我国生猪 产业健康发展的有力保护。根据世贸组织争端解决机制的程序，欧盟虽已提出申诉，但整个过程预计至 少需要6个月时间。这意味着，在未来半年内，国内市场将迎来一个欧盟猪肉供应减少的调整期。作为 全球最大的猪肉消费国，我国猪肉市场正处在产能调整与结构转型的关键时期，此次反倾销措施带来的 市场空间，将为国内养殖户和屠宰企业提供宝贵的发展窗口。 欧盟猪肉退场，国内市场迎转机 中国是欧盟猪肉出口的最大市场。数据显示，2024年欧盟对华猪肉出口量占其总出口的47%，价值高达 40亿欧元。西班牙、荷兰、丹麦等国对我国市场依赖度极高。以西班牙为例，2023年其对华出口猪肉56 万吨，占其出口总量的两成以上。我国此次实施的反倾销措施，预计将使欧盟对华猪肉出口量在2025年 下降30%至50%。 国内猪业承压，反倾销带来喘息机会 欧盟猪肉的"退场"，意味着每年数十万吨的进口量将逐步让位于本土产品。以2024年1-7月数据为例， 我国 ...

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 近期，中央财经委会议、国务院第十五次专题学习等事关产业结构调整的会议密集召开，或为 "十五五" 规划先导。以往五年规划的产业调整路径是什么，"十 五五"规划又将如何推进？系统分析，供参考。 一、产业结构调整是我国五年规划的重要内容，"十五"至"十四五"均明确了详细的产业结构调整目标。 国民经济和社会发展五年规划为国民经济与社会发展的远景设定目标、指明方向，会针对经济、改革、社会发展等领域制定具体规划。 例如，"十三五"规划的 主要目标分为七个部分：经济、创新、发展协调性、民生、社会文明、生态环境、制度建设；"十四五"规划则将经济、创新与发展协调性的目标整合为"经济 发展取得新成效"，并进一步强化了对改革与国家治理能力的重视。 从五年规划的目标设定与实施逻辑来看，产业结构调整不仅是规划的重要组成部分，更是实现核心目标的"关键手段"。 从"十五"计划到"十三五"规划，产业结 构调整均设有明确量化指标，如"十一五"和"十二五"规划分别要求提高服务业增加值占比3个和4个百分点；自"十三五"规划起，政策重心转向先进制造业发 展，到"十四五"规划时，更细化了研发经费 ...

Group 1 - China's economic policies this year focus on boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency, with recent data indicating positive effects from these policies [1] - The third batch of funds for replacing old consumer goods has stimulated demand, leading to double-digit growth in retail sales of home appliances, furniture, and cultural office supplies in August [1] - Service consumption is also on the rise, with a 5.1% year-on-year increase in service retail sales over the first eight months, outpacing goods retail growth [1] Group 2 - The expansion of domestic demand policies is positively impacting production, with significant year-on-year increases in manufacturing sectors such as boiler and motor manufacturing, at 11.9% and 14.8% respectively in August [2] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors are experiencing growth rates of 9.3% and 8.1%, respectively, indicating a structural upgrade in the manufacturing industry [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained stable in August, reflecting improved production factor circulation and a better supply-demand relationship in various industries [2] Group 3 - In September, new policies are being introduced to enhance market efficiency and promote private investment, including pilot reforms in ten regions [3] - The current macroeconomic policy is characterized by a gradual and supportive approach, with expectations for increased policy intensity in response to last year's economic data base [3]

Group 1: Deep Dive on "14th Five-Year Plan" - The article discusses the ongoing signals from the central government regarding industrial structure adjustments, emphasizing the path taken in the previous five-year plan and how the "14th Five-Year Plan" will advance these adjustments [8]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August showed a cooling trend, leading the market to shift from "rate cut trades" to "recession trades," raising questions about the extent of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12]. - A mini-storm in sovereign debt markets has emerged due to a significant rise in overseas risk-free interest rates, prompting a risk-off sentiment in global financial markets [11][12]. - The article highlights that the decline in exports in August is not due to a "export rush" tapering off, but rather other underlying factors [16]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The analysis of the August CPI indicates that core CPI structure shows two main characteristics: limited transmission of tariffs on goods inflation and a weakening in super-core service inflation [21]. - The commentary on the recent U.S. employment data indicates a weakening trend, which has contributed to the continued rise in gold and silver prices [23].

Group 1 - The national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August 2025, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9%, marking four consecutive months of expansion [1][4] - The producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a shift from decline to stability on a month-on-month basis [1][4] - The divergence in price indicators reflects a differentiated recovery in the domestic consumption market and industrial sector [1] Group 2 - Food prices were the main drag on the CPI, with significant declines in pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs, while non-food prices rose by 0.5%, particularly in services [3] - The PPI showed positive signals as it ended an eight-month decline, with prices in upstream industries like coal processing and black metal smelting turning from decline to increase [3] - Emerging industries such as integrated circuit packaging and shipbuilding saw price recoveries, indicating positive effects from industrial structure adjustments [3][4] Group 3 - Analysts noted that the current price trend exhibits characteristics of "core stability and structural improvement," with the core CPI reflecting a gradual recovery in domestic demand [4] - The narrowing PPI decline suggests improvements in industry capacity governance and stability in supply chains, particularly in key industries [4] - The recovery in emerging industry prices injects new momentum into the industrial economy, indicating that the recovery process in the industrial sector may be faster than expected [4] Group 4 - Experts anticipate that the recovery momentum in the consumption market will continue to be released, with service prices likely to remain high due to the normalization of peak seasons for tourism and accommodation [6] - The construction of a unified national market is expected to optimize industry competition, while macro policies will continue to drive structural adjustments in industries [6] - However, fluctuations in international commodity prices may pose input-related impacts, and the issue of insufficient domestic effective demand requires ongoing policy support [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of industrial structure adjustment in China's 14th and upcoming 15th Five-Year Plans, emphasizing a shift from focusing on the proportion of the three industries to prioritizing technological innovation and high-quality development [2][3][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Importance of Industrial Structure Adjustment - Industrial structure adjustment is a crucial component of China's Five-Year Plans, serving as a key means to achieve core objectives [3][16]. - The 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans have set clear quantitative targets for industrial structure adjustments, focusing on advanced manufacturing and innovation [3][5]. 2. Evolution of Industrial Structure Adjustment - The focus has shifted from the proportion of the three industries to technological innovation and R&D investment from the 11th to the 14th Five-Year Plans [5][28]. - The importance of service industry value-added ratios has diminished, while R&D expenditure has become a central indicator [5][28]. 3. Directions for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The primary direction for the 15th Five-Year Plan is transformation and upgrading, with a focus on "anti-involution" and service industry development [7][8]. - The emphasis on technological innovation is expected to continue, with new emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and marine economy being highlighted [7][22]. 4. Service Industry Focus - The service industry's focus has shifted from finance and real estate to information technology, reflecting a decrease in reliance on traditional sectors [6][47]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan is likely to enhance the service industry's openness and stimulate service consumption and trade [8][49]. 5. Manufacturing Sector Changes - The requirements for the manufacturing sector have evolved from quantity to quality, with a growing emphasis on high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing [35][40]. - The contribution of high-tech industries to economic growth has become increasingly significant, outpacing traditional labor-intensive sectors [32][44].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of industrial structure adjustment in China's 14th and upcoming 15th Five-Year Plans, emphasizing a shift from focusing on the ratio of the three industries to prioritizing technological innovation and R&D investment [3][5][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Importance of Industrial Structure Adjustment - Industrial structure adjustment is a crucial component of China's Five-Year Plans, serving as a key means to achieve core objectives [3][16]. - The 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans have set clear quantitative targets for industrial structure adjustments, focusing on advanced manufacturing and R&D investment [3][5]. 2. Evolution of Industrial Structure Adjustment - The focus of industrial structure adjustment has shifted from the ratio of the three industries to emphasizing technological innovation [5][28]. - The importance of service industry value-added ratios has diminished, while R&D expenditure has become a central indicator [5][28]. - The 14th Five-Year Plan introduced a target for the digital economy's core industries, reflecting a more refined approach to planning [5][28]. 3. Directions for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The primary direction for industrial structure adjustment during the 15th Five-Year Plan is transformation and upgrading, with a focus on technological innovation [7][22]. - Emerging industries such as marine economy, artificial intelligence, and smart vehicles are expected to receive significant attention [7][22]. - The need to address supply-demand mismatches and implement "anti-involution" policies is highlighted as a critical aspect of the upcoming plan [7][8]. 4. Service Industry Focus - The service industry's development is essential for addressing structural unemployment during the transition process and aligns with the requirements of the new era of China's economy [8][47]. - The emphasis has shifted from finance and real estate to information technology, with a growing focus on enhancing the competitiveness of the service sector [6][47]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan is likely to increase the openness of the service industry to stimulate service consumption and trade [8][49]. 5. Manufacturing Sector Changes - The requirements for the manufacturing sector have evolved from focusing on quantity to quality, with an emphasis on high-tech industries [5][30][40]. - The contribution of high-tech industries to economic growth has become increasingly significant, with average growth rates surpassing those of traditional industries [32][44]. 6. Policy Implications - The article outlines that the strategic focus of the Five-Year Plans reflects a broader shift in policy priorities, emphasizing innovation, structural adjustment, and high-quality development [11][13][40]. - The integration of technological advancements into traditional industries is seen as a pathway to enhance competitiveness and sustainability [5][40].

Group 1: Industry Structure Adjustment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes industry structure adjustment as a key component of national economic planning, with specific targets set in previous plans like the "13th" and "14th" Five-Year Plans[1] - The focus of industry structure adjustment has shifted from the ratio of the three industries to prioritizing technological innovation and R&D investment[2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" introduced new targets for digital economy core industries, reflecting a transition from broad to detailed planning[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Targets - From 2010 to 2024, the share of the secondary industry in GDP has stabilized, with figures of 45.7%, 40.0%, 36.9%, and 36.5% respectively, while the tertiary industry's share increased from 45.1% to 56.7%[21] - The average growth rate of R&D investment in enterprises reached 9.8% from 2019 to 2023, indicating a strong emphasis on innovation[17] - The service sector's contribution to GDP has shifted from finance and real estate to information technology, with significant increases in the GDP share of information transmission and technology services during the "13th" Five-Year Plan[4] Group 3: Future Directions and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to continue supporting technological innovation, with emerging industries like artificial intelligence and marine economy highlighted in recent government meetings[5] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy aims to address supply-demand mismatches in manufacturing, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing negative growth for 34 consecutive months as of July 2025[6] - The service sector is anticipated to receive increased policy support to enhance employment stability and stimulate consumption, particularly in areas like education and healthcare[6]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is identified as a critical window for the construction of a new industrialization and modern industrial system in China, with profound changes expected in industrial structure, supply chains, and value chains [1] Group 1: Industrial Structure Adjustment - The industrial structure adjustment will exhibit a "three-track parallel" feature, with emerging and future industries transitioning from cultivation to explosive growth, becoming new engines of economic growth [3] - Traditional industries are accelerating their transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green development through technological upgrades and model innovations [3] - The deep integration of manufacturing and service industries is giving rise to new service-oriented manufacturing models, promoting the synergy between the real economy and the digital economy [3] Group 2: Industrial Chain Upgrade - The upgrade of the industrial chain focuses on three main directions: enhancing the concentration of leading industries, optimizing the regional division of labor, and strengthening talent strategies [3] - By concentrating on strategic fields such as integrated circuits and biomedicine, China aims to consolidate its leading position in global manufacturing [3] - The transfer of industries from the eastern to the central and western regions is forming a gradient development pattern, supported by dual-driven policies for overseas talent introduction and local talent cultivation [3] Group 3: Supply Chain Restructuring - The restructuring of the supply chain is characterized by a "main and auxiliary chain collaboration" model, where the domestic main chain leverages a complete industrial system and a large domestic market to consolidate cost advantages in traditional industries [3] - The overseas auxiliary chain is being localized in regions such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East to adapt to tariff policies and green standards, enhancing the resilience of the supply chain [3] - This "dual circulation" supply chain adjustment significantly strengthens China's ability to respond to global demand fluctuations [3] Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategies - Asset allocation should focus on three main lines: investing in areas of industrial structure upgrade, particularly in the scaling of emerging industries, intelligent transformation of traditional industries, and integration projects [4] - Regional asset allocation should be centered around leading industries, capturing the synergy between eastern innovation resources and central and western manufacturing bases [4] - Supporting enterprises' global layout through cross-border finance and logistics services will assist main chain companies in building overseas supply chain networks [4]

Group 1 - The company held its eighth meeting of the seventh board of directors, with all nine directors present, ensuring compliance with legal and procedural requirements [1][2] - The board approved the proposal to publicly sell 100% equity and debt of Guangxi Xingaosheng Thin Ceramic Co., Ltd, aimed at optimizing the company's industrial structure and improving asset operation efficiency [1][2] - The board authorized the management to handle related matters regarding the sale [1] Group 2 - The board approved the proposal to expand the business scope and amend the company's articles of association [2] - The board decided to hold the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 on September 23, with all nine directors voting in favor [2]