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海伦司“小酒馆第一股”背后,一场短暂的繁华
新消费智库· 2025-05-16 12:34
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and potential of the small bar industry in China, particularly focusing on the case of Helen's, which has seen a significant decline in store numbers and profitability since its IPO in 2021 [4][9][19]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The alcohol consumption market is becoming increasingly vibrant, with new entrants like light alcohol and small bars enriching the industry landscape [4]. - In 2021, Helen's became the first small bar stock in Hong Kong, leading to expectations of a flourishing market [5][8]. - However, the reality has diverged from these expectations, with Helen's store count dropping from 767 in 2022 to 479 in 2023, a decrease of 37.55% [9]. Group 2: Helen's Business Model and Strategy - Helen's initially attracted young consumers with a low-price strategy, offering beers at 10 yuan [8]. - The company has shifted its focus to lower-tier markets for growth, with a significant reduction in stores in first and second-tier cities [10]. - The number of Helen's direct-operated and franchised stores decreased by 60.95% and 19.3% respectively from 2022 to 2023 [10]. Group 3: Market Potential and Challenges - The potential for bar consumption in lower-tier markets is substantial, with projections indicating that the domestic bar industry revenue could reach 183.9 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.8% [11]. - Despite the promising market potential, the small bar business model remains largely unproven, with many brands entering the market but few succeeding [16][17]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with major beer brands also entering the small bar space, further complicating the market dynamics [17][18]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The article raises questions about the viability of the small bar business, suggesting that while it may be a good market, it is not necessarily easy to operate successfully [19]. - The industry is still in its early stages, with a high level of fragmentation and a low market penetration rate, indicating significant growth opportunities for leading players like Helen's [19].
海伦司2024年营收、净利双降:分散下沉战略受挫 加盟商盈利困局难解
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-04-09 04:07
Core Viewpoint - Helen's, known as the "first stock of small taverns," has disappointed the market with significant revenue and profit declines, indicating a failure in its strategic transformation to target lower-tier markets [1][2][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, Helen's reported total revenue of 752 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 101 million yuan, down 65.5% from 2023 [1] - The company has accumulated a net loss of 1.729 billion yuan over the reporting periods, approximately 10.87 times the total net profit before its IPO [1] - The stock price has plummeted from a peak of 20.61 HKD per share to a low of 1.21 HKD, with a market value drop of 93.3% since its IPO [1] Strategic Shift - In response to the pandemic, Helen's shifted focus from high-rent first and second-tier cities to lower-tier markets, increasing the proportion of stores in third-tier cities from 30% to 52.6% [2][4] - The number of stores in first and second-tier cities decreased by 43, while the number of stores in third-tier cities increased by 48.8% [2] Market Challenges - Despite the increase in lower-tier stores, the average daily sales per store in these areas fell by 9.5% to 6,700 yuan, marking a six-year low [4] - The company's standardized tavern model struggles to meet the diverse needs of consumers in lower-tier cities, where local preferences and income levels differ significantly [7] Franchise Model Issues - The shift to a franchise model led to a drastic reduction in company-owned stores, with franchise revenue only accounting for 25.9% of total revenue in 2024 [8] - Franchise stores reported an average daily sales of only 5,000 yuan, a nearly 30% decline compared to previous years [8] - The investment recovery period for franchisees has extended to 3-4 years, making it less attractive compared to competitors [13] Cost Reduction Efforts - Helen's has repeatedly lowered the investment threshold for franchisees, including reducing initial investment costs and eliminating profit-sharing arrangements [10][11] - New store models have been introduced to attract franchisees, but the expected growth in store numbers has not materialized as planned [14]
“10元小酒馆”神话崩塌,海伦司崩盘 | 酒业内参
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-09 00:47
Core Viewpoint - Helen's, known as "the first stock of Chinese taverns," is facing significant challenges in 2024, including a drastic decline in direct sales, over 20% drop in same-store sales, and a shift from profit to loss [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Helen's total revenue plummeted by 37.8% from 12.09 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.52 billion yuan [2] - Direct sales revenue fell approximately 50%, from 11.03 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.58 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The franchise business, however, saw explosive growth, with revenue increasing by about 85% from 1.05 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.95 billion yuan in 2024, raising its revenue share from 8.7% to 25.9% [2] Profitability - Helen's reported a net loss of 77.976 million yuan in 2024, compared to a profit of 180 million yuan in 2023, marking a significant shift from profit to loss [3] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 65.46%, from 291 million yuan in 2023 to 100.6 million yuan in 2024 [3] Store Operations - As of March 19, 2025, Helen's had a total of 579 stores across 274 cities in China, with a notable reduction in direct and franchise stores [3] - Same-store sales dropped by 21.3% in 2024, with average daily sales per store decreasing by 21.5% [3] Market Challenges - The overall consumption market showed weakness in 2024, with a 1.4% decline in alcohol consumption prices [5] - The shift to lower-tier cities has posed challenges, as these markets generally have lower customer spending and brand recognition [6] Market Valuation - Since its IPO in September 2021, Helen's market value has decreased by over 90%, from a peak of over 30 billion HKD to approximately 2 billion HKD by April 8, 2025 [7] - The company was removed from the Hang Seng Composite Index and the Hong Kong Stock Connect, leading to decreased trading activity and liquidity issues [7] International Expansion - Helen's aims to enhance its international brand presence through a secondary listing in Singapore, but has seen minimal growth in overseas store numbers [8] - Cultural differences and operational challenges may hinder the company's overseas business from becoming a significant growth driver in the short term [8] Strategic Outlook - Balancing expansion with profitability and adapting to new consumer trends are critical challenges for Helen's moving forward [9] - 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for assessing the effectiveness of Helen's strategic transformation [9]
蜜雪冰城高增长VS海伦司市值暴跌90%!营收、利润双崩盘,小酒馆神话破灭
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-04-08 11:39
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the contrasting performance of two beverage companies targeting young consumers in the Hong Kong stock market: Mixue Ice City and Helen's. While Mixue Ice City has shown significant growth post-IPO, Helen's has faced substantial declines in revenue and profitability, raising concerns about its business model sustainability in a competitive market. Group 1: Financial Performance - Mixue Ice City achieved a revenue growth of 22.29% in 2024, reaching 24.83 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 41.41% to 4.44 billion yuan [1] - Helen's reported a revenue of 0.752 billion yuan in 2024, a significant decline of 37.8%, with alcohol beverage revenue dropping over 54% [3][5] - Helen's net profit for 2024 was a loss of 0.078 billion yuan, marking a stark contrast to its previous profitable years [3] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Helen's has expanded its store count to 579 by adding 81 new stores in 2024, with a significant portion located in lower-tier cities [5] - The company has shifted from a direct ownership model to a partnership model, indicating challenges in maintaining its previous direct control strategy due to rising costs [5] - The average daily sales per store have declined, with direct and franchise stores averaging 7,000 yuan, down 300 yuan year-on-year [5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The small bar segment, where Helen's operates, has become increasingly competitive, with traditional breweries and new market entrants diluting its customer base [7] - Helen's price advantage is being eroded by competition from convenience store cocktails and craft beer bars, leading to a loss of its unique selling proposition [7] - The company's market capitalization has plummeted over 90% from its peak, reflecting investor concerns about its future viability [1][8] Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Helen's stock price has seen a drastic decline from its initial listing value of 31.88 yuan to just 1.50 yuan, indicating a loss of investor confidence [8] - The removal of Helen's from the Hong Kong Stock Connect list in March 2024 further underscores the waning trust in its business model [10]
1.83万亿港元!"雪王",登顶!冠军基金悄然换仓,什么信号?
券商中国· 2025-02-27 03:35
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in fund managers' investment strategies towards the Hong Kong consumer sector, driven by extreme undervaluation and a strong demand for reallocation after a period of severe sell-off in consumer stocks [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent IPO of major milk tea brands like Gu Ming and Mi Xue Bing Cheng has sparked renewed interest in the Hong Kong consumer market, with Mi Xue Bing Cheng achieving a record subscription amount of HKD 1.83 trillion, reflecting a 5266 times oversubscription [2][4]. - Fund managers are increasingly optimistic about consumer stocks, as evidenced by the dramatic price increases of stocks like Nai Xue's Tea, which surged over 80% in just two days following the IPO news [2][3]. Group 2: Fund Manager Behavior - Fund managers have been actively reallocating their portfolios, moving from technology stocks to consumer stocks, as they seek to balance their positions and capitalize on the emerging opportunities in the consumer sector [5][6]. - The article notes that many previously high-weighted consumer stocks have been sold off to the point of being excluded from major fund portfolios, indicating a significant shift in investment focus [4][5]. Group 3: Valuation and Future Expectations - The decline in consumer stock valuations at the end of last year, exacerbated by the tech sector's performance, has created a favorable environment for fund managers to invest in consumer stocks, anticipating a rebound in consumer demand by 2025 [6][7]. - Fund managers are focusing on companies with solid fundamentals and attractive valuations, particularly in traditional consumer sectors like liquor, home appliances, and brand-name Chinese medicine, as they expect improved performance in the consumer market [7][6].