专题：专题|2024年度A股董秘数据报告：1144位董秘年薪超百万 占比超21% 董秘作为连接投资者与上市公司的"桥梁"，在上市公司资本运作中发挥着关键作用。新浪财经《2024年度A股董秘数据报告》显示，2024年A股上市公司董秘薪酬合计达40.86亿元，平均年薪7 分行业来看，统计数据显示，剔除董秘已离任公司后，A股共有28家普钢、特钢公司，其聘任总体情况如下（部分统计口径剔除无效数据）。 从董秘的年龄分布来看，40岁-50岁董秘是市场的中坚力量，占比共计达到50%；50岁以上的董秘占比为14%；小于或等于40岁的董秘群体占比为36%。其中，目前仍任职的最年轻的男上市公司 从董秘的学历分布看，拥有本科、硕士学历的董秘占比均为50%。 从薪酬分布看，A股医药医疗服务公司董秘年薪平均值为68.76万元。经统计，处于50万以下、50万-100万、100万-200万、200万以上各区间的人数占比分别为46%、36%、11%、7%。 其中，年薪排行前三的董秘分别为宝钢股份的王娟、中信特钢的王海勇、翔楼新材的钱雅琴，三人年薪分别为221.70万元、217.94万元、197.74万元。其中，钱雅琴年仅38岁，于45岁以下 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly focusing on the implications of the "anti-involution" policy in various industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Policy**: This policy aims to address issues of low prices and disorderly competition within specific industries, primarily targeting local governments and enterprises. It is not a macroeconomic policy but rather an industry-specific measure [2][3] 2. **Beneficiary Industries**: The industries benefiting from the anti-involution policy can be categorized into three groups: - **Group 1**: Industries with low economic activity but recovering profitability, such as wind power, rebar steel, and cement [2] - **Group 2**: Industries with bottoming fundamentals but strong expectations, including photovoltaic, general equipment, and medical devices [2] - **Group 3**: Industries with high economic activity but lacking real estate policy expectations, such as batteries and medical aesthetics [2] 3. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision**: There is a significant divergence in market opinions regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in September. However, based on economic data, the probability of a rate cut appears substantial [4][11] 4. **Economic Data Insights**: - The second quarter GDP data indicates a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with internal demand weakening [4] - Personal consumption expenditures increased their contribution to GDP from 0.3% in Q1 to approximately 1% in Q2, while private investment stagnated, negatively impacting GDP [5] 5. **Employment Data**: The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant shortfall, with only 73,000 jobs added, indicating a sharp decline in hiring momentum [6] 6. **Labor Market Dynamics**: Job growth is concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, while goods production and federal government employment are major detractors [7] 7. **Labor Market Indicators**: The labor force participation rate has declined, and the unemployment rate has increased, particularly among Black workers. Long-term unemployment has risen, but hourly wages have been adjusted upward [8] 8. **Manufacturing and Inflation**: The manufacturing sector has shown signs of decline, with pressures on demand and employment. Inflationary pressures are expected to be manageable in the near term [10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Federal Reserve Chair Powell's Remarks**: Powell noted that the weakening supply-demand dynamics in the labor market pose risks, despite a stable unemployment rate [9] 2. **Market Reactions**: The rapid replenishment of the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) could lead to rising overnight financing rates, influencing the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in China's industrial strategy from "expansion" to "high-quality development," emphasizing the need to eliminate "involutionary competition" across various sectors, including photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy and Strategic Direction - The Central Financial and Economic Committee has elevated the goal of "breaking down involutionary competition" to a national strategy, indicating a broader and deeper impact on strategic emerging industries [1][2]. - The Central Political Bureau meeting in July 2024 highlighted the need to strengthen industry self-discipline and prevent "involutionary" competition, marking a significant policy shift [2]. - The government work report in March 2025 included "comprehensive rectification of involutionary competition" as a key task, signaling a commitment to address this issue [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Response and Actions - Various industries are actively responding to the call for "anti-involution," with major photovoltaic glass companies announcing a collective production cut of 30% starting July [4]. - The China Cement Association has issued guidelines to promote "anti-involution" and high-quality development in the cement industry [4]. - Key automotive companies have publicly committed to reducing payment terms for suppliers to no more than 60 days, reflecting a shift towards more sustainable practices [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Industries that may benefit first from the "anti-involution" trend include those with slowing capital expenditure but signs of profit recovery, such as wind power equipment, common steel, cement, and glass fiber [5]. - Sectors experiencing a downturn but facing urgent "anti-involution" policy needs, like photovoltaic equipment and medical devices, are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries [5]. - The ChiNext Index (399006) is positioned as a key vehicle for capturing policy dividends and opportunities in industrial upgrades, focusing on sectors supported by government policies [6][8]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Market Reaction - The ChiNext Index has shown strong financial performance, with a five-year annualized revenue growth rate of 21.2% and a net profit growth rate of 24.2%, outperforming major indices [8]. - Following the Central Financial and Economic Committee's signals in July, sectors like steel, photovoltaics, and automobiles saw rapid gains, indicating market sensitivity to policy changes [10]. - The current valuation of the ChiNext Index is at a near ten-year low, suggesting significant potential for growth as profitability improves [10].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The pricing mechanism is determined by the long-term contract system, where the sales price for the next month is based on the last price index of the current month[10] 2. The model incorporates year-over-year changes in price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but it relies heavily on the accuracy of price and capacity factor inputs[10][14] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the supply-demand gap for hogs six months in advance based on the relationship between sow inventory and hog slaughter rates[15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months[15] 2. The formula for the slaughter coefficient is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[15] 3. The potential supply and demand six months later are calculated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6)} $ $ \text{Potential Demand (t+6)} = \text{Hog Slaughter (t+6, Previous Year)} $[16] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this model effectively identifies hog price upcycles, making it a valuable tool for forecasting[16] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[18] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model uses comprehensive steel prices and considers the costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[18] 2. Monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability are calculated based on these inputs[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures the dynamics of the steel industry effectively, but its accuracy depends on the reliability of input data[23] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and designs allocation signals based on these changes[25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability trends in the glass and cement industries[25] 2. It incorporates economic data such as manufacturing PMI and real estate sales to analyze potential infrastructure investment expectations[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of industry profitability and its drivers, but it is sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations[29] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth rates and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices and crude oil prices[30] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model calculates profit growth rates and cracking spreads using changes in fuel and crude oil prices[30] 2. Allocation signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the profitability dynamics of the refining industry, but its performance is influenced by oil price volatility[37] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The coal industry index achieved a cumulative excess return of 0.3% in July 2025[10] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The model predicts a potential supply of 18,249,000 hogs and a demand of 18,226,000 hogs for Q4 2025, indicating a roughly balanced market[17] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts positive year-over-year profit growth for July 2025, with improved per-ton profitability[23] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: The model indicates that glass industry gross profit remains in a year-over-year decline, but the rate of decline has narrowed[29] - **Cement Industry**: The model predicts a slight year-over-year profit growth for the cement industry in July 2025[29] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts slight year-over-year profit growth for the refining industry in July 2025[33] - **Oilfield Services**: The model observes that oil prices in July 2025 are lower than the previous year, with no significant change in new drilling activity[38]

Group 1 - The steel sector saw a 3.1% increase on July 29, with Ba Yi Steel leading the gains at 10% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3609.71, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11289.41, up 0.64% [1] - Major stocks in the steel sector showed significant price increases, with Ba Yi Steel at 4.07 and a trading volume of 1.4544 million shares [1] Group 2 - The steel sector experienced a net inflow of 601 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 177 million yuan [2] - The trading data indicates that Ba Yi Steel had a main fund net inflow of 1.17 billion yuan, but also a significant retail net outflow of 1.03 billion yuan [3] - Other notable stocks included Bao Steel with a net inflow of 52.13 million yuan and a retail outflow of 533.64 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - A total of 43 stocks hit the daily limit up, with 9 stocks achieving consecutive limit ups, and 22 stocks failed to close at the limit, resulting in a limit-up rate of 66% (excluding ST and delisted stocks) [1] - Focus stocks include Tibet Tourism, which achieved a limit up for 7 consecutive days; the innovative drug concept remains strong with Apac Pharmaceutical hitting 5 limit ups in 10 days and Chenxin Pharmaceutical achieving 4 limit ups in 7 days [1] - The super hydropower concept rebounded in the afternoon, with Southern Road Machinery, Shanhe Intelligent, Tibet Tianlu, and Xining Special Steel all achieving 6 limit ups in 7 days, while Deep Water Regulation Institute reached 5 limit ups in 7 days with a 20% limit up [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **commodity supercycle** and the impact of **anti-involution policies** on the **midstream materials and manufacturing industries**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Anti-Involution Policies**: Anti-involution policies may lead to a revaluation of midstream materials and manufacturing industries, similar to the utility price increase trend observed in 2023-2024. Focus on industries with negative ROC minus VAC indicators, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment** [1][2][5]. 2. **Drivers of Commodity Supercycle**: The commodity supercycle is driven by **de-globalization** and **de-dollarization**. De-globalization restricts factor flow, raising inflation, while de-dollarization leads to increased commodity pricing. Historical parallels are drawn to the 1970s commodity bull market due to similar conditions [3][9]. 3. **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The Renminbi's exchange rate is highly correlated with market trends. In the medium term, the price gap between China and the US supports Renminbi appreciation, although short-term risks from US debt issuance could pressure the A-share market [1][6]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to follow the **Barbell Strategy**, allocating 80% of investments to safe assets like **gold, banks, resources, and utilities**, and 20% to sectors with potential catalysts such as **domestic computing power, robotics, and Hainan Free Trade Zone** [1][7]. 5. **US Treasury Account and Interest Rates**: The US Treasury General Account (TGA) needs to be replenished quickly, which may lead to a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to near or above 5%. This could impact dollar liquidity and put pressure on the A-share market, particularly growth-style stocks [1][8]. 6. **Historical Context of Anti-Involution**: The current anti-involution policy is seen as part of a broader strategy to address economic deflation, with historical precedents in 1999 and 2015-2016. The focus should also be on demand-side policies [5][11]. 7. **Measuring Industry Involution**: The difference between ROIC and WACC serves as a measure of industry involution. Negative values indicate industries that are not creating value, with many midstream manufacturing and materials sectors currently in this state [12]. 8. **Recent Performance of Involved Industries**: Industries with high involution levels, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment**, have shown significant recent performance improvements, indicating potential investment opportunities [14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Commodity Price Trends**: From July 2022 to the present, gold and silver prices have increased by 100%, while platinum has risen by over 40%. Scarce metals have also seen significant price increases, suggesting a likely upward trend in commodity pricing [10]. 2. **Sector-Specific Insights**: Certain commodities like **alumina and live pigs** have seen price increases not due to anti-involution but rather as part of the broader commodity supercycle, indicating the complexity of market dynamics [15][16]. 3. **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: In the absence of a fundamental reversal in globalization trends, a suggested asset allocation strategy includes 80% in safe assets and 20% in technology and AI sectors, providing a balanced approach to risk management [17].

Market Performance - The A-share index has been on the rise since April 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3605.73 points on July 24, marking a significant recovery [2] - On July 21, the single-day financing purchase amount reached 1776.88 billion yuan, the highest since mid-March, with financing purchases accounting for 10.29% of total A-share transactions [2] Trading Volume and Investor Sentiment - Since June 23, the trading volume of A-shares has significantly increased, with the Wind All A Index trading volume rising from 1.1 trillion yuan to 1.9 trillion yuan [2] - Nomura Orient International Securities suggests that the increase in trading volume indicates investor optimism about future liquidity improvements, potentially leading to a "liquidity bull market" [2] - The firm warns that the current trading volume may be nearing its peak, estimating a potential peak around 2.2 trillion yuan [2] Market Rotation and Volatility - The market is expected to enter a rotation phase, with high volatility likely as market sentiment rather than fundamentals drives movements [3] - Compared to Nomura's cautious outlook, Cinda Securities anticipates a potential breakout similar to the second half of 2014, contingent on economic or policy catalysts [3] Policy and Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" policy has gained traction, with the Central Financial Committee emphasizing the need to address low-price competition among enterprises [4] - Huatai Securities notes that the launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project and coal industry production restrictions are contributing to the formation of the "anti-involution" theme [5] - The transition of "anti-involution" from a theme to a mainline strategy is supported by deepening policy efforts and market recognition [5] Strategic Insights - Huatai Securities recommends focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend sectors such as building materials, coal, and chemicals, as well as sectors showing signs of natural capacity clearance [5] - CITIC Securities highlights the need for a long-term approach to address "involution" issues, advocating for a shift from speed to quality in development assessments [6]

证券研究报告 策略 "反内卷"主线或逐渐形成 2025 年 7 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 华泰研究 何康，PhD 研究员 hekang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2202 王伟光 研究员 SAC No. S0570523040001 wangweiguang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 方正韬 研究员 SAC No. S0570524060001 fangzhengtao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 孙瀚文 研究员 SAC No. S0570524040002 SFC No. BVB302 sunhanwen@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 核心观点 近日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电站项目（以下简称"雅下项目"）开工和煤炭行 业限制超产等政策助力下"反内卷"主线逐渐形成，背后是政策力度和市场 认知的进一步深化：其一，此前部分投资者担忧本轮"反内卷"缺乏需求侧 政策配合，雅下项目落地提供了积极信号，下半年信用和库存周期拐点渐次 出现、ROE 企稳回升的能见度进一步上升；其二，本轮"反内卷"政策已 完成政策定调和顶 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the steel, rare earth, and lithium industries, highlighting current market conditions and future outlooks for these sectors. Key Points on Steel Industry - The steel inventory is at its lowest level in ten years, indicating a solid fundamental outlook for the sector [1][4] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio for ordinary steel is at the 15th percentile over the past decade, suggesting it remains undervalued [2][4] - Recommendations include low PB stocks such as New Steel Co., Sansteel Minguang, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [1][4] - The upcoming peak demand season in September-October is expected to improve performance, with potential for profit increases if production cuts are implemented [4] Key Points on Rare Earth Industry - The rare earth sector is positively influenced by the US-China strategic competition, with a focus on Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel [2][5] - The US Department of Defense has set a price floor for yttrium at 890,000 CNY/ton, while domestic prices are significantly lower at 480,000 CNY/ton [5] - Northern Rare Earth is projected to achieve profits of 3 billion CNY in 2026, with a market capitalization potential of 150 billion CNY based on a 50x valuation [5][3] Key Points on Lithium Industry - Lithium carbonate prices have risen from 65,000 CNY/ton to 70,000 CNY/ton, driven by regulatory changes in Jiangxi province [6][12] - The current lithium inventory has increased by 1.3%, but remains at a level equivalent to one month of demand, indicating a manageable supply situation [10] - The Yichun lithium mining permit issue is a critical variable affecting market dynamics, with potential supply chain risks if production is halted [7][11] - Future lithium prices are expected to rise to 75,000 CNY, with futures trading likely to fluctuate around 70,000 CNY [12][13] - Major lithium companies like Tianqi Lithium are showing signs of profitability, while Ganfeng Lithium's performance may improve in Q3 [15] Additional Insights - The upcoming Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an investment of 1.2 trillion CNY, is expected to benefit companies like Yahua Group involved in lithium and blasting services [2] - The lithium industry is not yet in a supply-demand reversal state, but this may occur by 2026 if demand continues to grow by over 20% [12][16] - Investment opportunities exist in the lithium sector, particularly when companies' PB ratios fall below 1, indicating a favorable buying condition [14][16]