证 券 研 究 报 告 钢铁行业周报（20250714-20250718） 钢铁行业稳增长工作方案即将出台 ❑ 行业观点：情绪转暖叠加成本支撑，钢材保持偏强运行 事件一：截至 7 月 18 日，五大品种螺纹钢、线材、热轧、冷轧、中板价格分 别报收 3316 元/吨、3629 元/吨、3345 元/吨、3775 元/吨、3425 元/吨，周环比 分别变化+0.83%、+0.76%、+1.47%、+1.16%、+0.91%。本周五大品种产量 868.19 万吨，周环比下降 4.53 万吨。247 家钢铁企业日均铁水 242.44 万吨，周环比 上升 2.63 万吨，高炉产能利用率 90.89%，周环比上升 0.99 个百分点，高炉开 工率83.46%，周环比上升0.31个百分点。短流程企业，电炉产能利用率51.79%， 周环比上升 1.43 个百分点，电炉开工率 65.08%，周环上升 1.49 个百分点。库 存方面，本周钢材总库存 1337.66 万吨，周环比下降 1.92 万吨。其中社会库存 环比增加 8.1 万吨至 922.11 万吨；钢厂库存环比下降 10.02 万吨至 415.55 万 吨。需求端，本周 ...

订阅A股涨停捉妖队 +订阅 订阅A股市场资讯 +订阅 A股钢铁板块盘中移动，柳钢股份涨停封板，盛德鑫泰涨近6%，首钢股份、华菱钢铁、方大特钢、新 钢股份等跟涨。 ...

新华财经石家庄7月17日电（记者刘桃熊）今年上半年，钢铁业利润"逆袭"，多家钢铁上市公司业绩预 喜。分析认为，除了成本回落、出口带动及企业自身积极降本增效外，行业自律控产是利润改善的核心 因素。展望下半年，自律控产的持续性仍是影响钢价走势的关键变量。 多家上市钢企业绩预喜 据不完全统计，截至目前，已有十几家上市钢企发布上半年业绩预告，多家公司业绩预喜。 首钢股份预计实现归母净利润6.42亿元至6.72亿元，同比增长62.62%-70.22%。五矿发展预计实现归母净 利润1.07亿元，同比增长111%。柳钢股份预计实现归母净利润3.4亿元至4亿元，同比增长530%-641%。 方大特钢预计实现归母净利润3.8亿元至4.3亿元，同比增长133.33%-164.03%。 此外，新钢股份、山东钢铁、三钢闽光、安阳钢铁预告称，2025年上半年实现扭亏为盈。鞍钢股份、马 钢股份、本钢板材、酒钢宏兴、重庆钢铁、抚顺特钢预告称，2025年上半年实现亏损减少。 从公告看，上半年钢铁行业呈现减量调结构、需求差异化的特点，钢材价格弱势运行。面对严峻的市场 形势，各上市钢企不断进行内生改革，推动产品结构转型和降本增效。 例如，首钢股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side reform in China is expected to break the deflationary cycle and create investment opportunities in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply constraints" to manage the supply-demand balance and mitigate economic downturn risks [6][12] - The steel industry is facing severe overcapacity, with state-owned enterprises holding a significant market share, which facilitates the implementation of administrative measures to control production [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Side Reform and Economic Management - The socialist market economy in China allows for effective macroeconomic control, contrasting with the cyclical issues faced in capitalist economies [12][13] - Historical experiences show that demand stimulus alone is insufficient to resolve deep-seated deflationary pressures [14][15] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has proven successful in stabilizing prices and improving corporate profitability [21][22] 2. Steel Industry Analysis - The steel industry has been in a state of oversupply from 2007 to 2024, with crude steel production increasing from 490 million tons to 1.01 billion tons, while apparent consumption has not kept pace [28][29] - The production capacity utilization rates for rebar and wire rod are expected to decline from around 70% to 50% due to weak real estate demand [33][34] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is high, with central state-owned enterprises accounting for approximately 63% of total production in 2024 [38][39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment targets: profit recovery, stable profit with valuation repair, and stable high-dividend stocks [51] - Specific companies recommended for profit recovery include Liugang Co., Taigang Stainless Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel, with projected annualized PE ratios improving significantly under favorable conditions [51]

近日，钢铁上市公司陆续披露中期业绩预告。 整体来看，今年上半年，在原料成本回落、大力降本等多重因素作用下，钢铁行业的盈利情况明显好转。 不过，尽管业绩有所回暖，但7月15日港A两市的钢铁板块则呈现集体回调态势。截至收盘，中国铁钛（00893.HK）跌 10%，重庆钢铁股份（01053.HK）跌3.38%，鞍钢股份（00347.HK）跌1.4%。 在A股市场，相关概念股亦同步回落。截至收盘，八一钢铁（600581.SH）跌2.39%，鞍钢股份（000898.SZ）、华菱钢铁 （000932.SZ）、新钢股份（600782.SH）等均跌超1%。 市场分析表示，尽管上半年国内钢铁行业整体盈利状况有所改善，但下半年原材料价格进一步下跌的空间有限。此外，虽 然"反内卷"政策正持续发力，但钢铁市场后续走势仍要取决于减产力度、政策落地速度及下游需求。 钢铁行业利润显著改善 作为国民经济的支柱之一，钢铁行业扮演着不可替代的角色。 但近几年，钢铁行业需求端面临着房地产行业低迷、基建投资拉动有限、海外市场对中国钢材出口压力加大等多重挑战。 具体来看，首钢股份（000959.SZ）等7家公司上半年净利润实现两位数甚至三位数的大幅增 ...

Overview - The metallurgical industry in China is focusing on energy conservation and emission reduction, aiming to minimize energy consumption and pollutant emissions while ensuring product quality and output [1][9][21] - In 2024, total investment in energy conservation and emission reduction by metallurgical enterprises is projected to decrease to 42 billion yuan, with energy-saving benefits dropping to 13 billion yuan [11] Market Policies - The Chinese government has implemented a series of policies to promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in the metallurgical industry, including action plans and guidelines aimed at reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions [4][6] - Specific targets for comprehensive energy consumption and carbon emission intensity in the steel industry have been established to guide the development of energy conservation and emission reduction efforts [4][6] Industry Chain - The energy conservation and emission reduction industry in metallurgy includes manufacturers of energy-saving equipment, technology providers, and software service providers [7] - The upstream supply chain consists of raw material suppliers, component manufacturers, and research institutions, while the downstream market primarily targets the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [7] Current Development - In 2023, the metallurgical industry consumed 680 million tons of standard coal and emitted 1.98 billion tons of CO2, with significant reductions expected in 2024 due to policy support [9][11] - The environmental cost per ton of steel is approximately 138 yuan, with carbon trading revenues estimated at 3.5 billion yuan [11] Competitive Landscape - Major players in the industry include large metallurgical groups like Baowu Steel and Hebei Iron and Steel, which are leading the development of energy-saving technologies [13][16] - Specialized energy-saving technology companies, such as China Metallurgical Group, focus on specific areas like waste heat recovery and flue gas purification [13][18] Future Trends - The dual carbon goals and related policies will continue to drive the metallurgical industry towards stricter energy consumption and emission standards [21] - The adoption of electric furnace short-process steelmaking technology is expected to increase, gradually shifting the industry away from traditional long-process methods [21]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing pressure from weak demand and high costs, leading to a focus on policy-driven capacity optimization to alleviate profitability issues [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Steel Index has rebounded by 11.86% since June 23, while the Wind All A Index increased by 6.53% during the same period [1]. - In July, the Shenyin Wanguo Steel Index rose by 9.31%, marking the largest monthly increase since October 2024, with 21 stocks in the steel sector rising over 10% [4]. Group 2: Company Earnings Forecasts - Eight steel companies have released their mid-year earnings forecasts, with Shougang Co. expecting a net profit of 642 to 672 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.62% to 70.22% [3]. - Shandong Steel anticipates a net profit of 12.71 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 98.1 million yuan [2]. - Fushun Special Steel and Hangang Co. are expected to report losses, with Fushun projecting a loss of 260 to 300 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 214.06% to 231.6% [3]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The steel industry has been in a downward cycle for four years, with approximately 30% of steel companies still reporting losses as of the latest financial reports [5]. - The demand for steel, particularly from the real estate sector, has significantly declined, with demand dropping from 377 million tons in March 2020 to 215 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 42.9% [5]. - The focus on cost reduction has become prevalent among steel companies, with raw material prices significantly impacting profitability [5]. Group 4: Policy and Structural Changes - Recent central government meetings have emphasized the need to eliminate outdated production capacity, strengthening expectations for supply contraction in the steel industry [4][6]. - The current round of "anti-involution" policies aims to optimize supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on differentiated control of production based on efficiency and environmental standards [6].

反内卷下的钢铁板块投资机会 20250613 摘要 反内卷政策推动钢铁行业供给侧改革，加速行业出清、兼并整合和龙头 集中，旨在改善无序竞争和同质化竞争局面，为钢铁行业带来长期投资 机会。政策导向明确，但需关注地方政府执行力度。 钢铁企业盈利能力受供需关系影响显著。螺纹钢利润超过 100 元时，企 业增产意愿强烈，但易导致钢价下跌，盈利难以持续修复。成本端，焦 煤和矿石价格下跌有助于改善钢企盈利，但需关注海外矿山成本上升风 险。 房地产市场下滑拖累建筑用钢需求，房屋新开工面积和施工面积均下降。 基建投资虽有所增长，但难以完全抵消房建下滑的影响，预计 2025 年 建筑用钢需求将下降 5%-6%。 全球矿石供应预计增加，新芒度项目等低成本矿投放将打破寡头垄断格 局，优化成本结构。中国生铁产量压减有助于优化全球矿石供应格局， 但需关注海外钢铁生产对废钢的依赖。 钢铁行业库存周期处于历史低位，反映市场悲观预期。低库存成为供需 关系的缓冲垫，若后续供需紧张，补库周期启动将加剧供需紧张程度， 推动市场改善。 Q&A 钢铁板块目前的投资机会和核心逻辑是什么？ 钢铁板块目前处于盈利周期的底部，尽管从去年三季度开始有边际改善， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the steel industry, suggesting to focus on the bottom repair opportunities in steel stocks [1]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand during the off-season, but improved market sentiment has led to an increase in steel prices [2][3]. - The overall profitability of the steel industry has improved in the first half of the year due to a significant decline in raw material prices, which has positively impacted steel production costs [3][9]. - The "anti-involution" policy proposed by the Central Financial Committee is expected to enhance market conditions for the steel industry, leading to both valuation and performance recovery in the long term [4][10]. Industry Data Summary Production Data - As of July 11, the production of five major steel products totaled 8.7272 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 124,000 tons [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3981 million tons, down 10,400 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points [1][2]. Consumption Data - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products was 8.7307 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 121,900 tons [1][2]. - The consumption changes for specific products included a decrease of 33,700 tons for rebar, 29,100 tons for wire rod, and 18,600 tons for hot-rolled products [1]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory was reported at 13.3958 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 3,500 tons [1]. - Social inventory decreased by 21,200 tons to 9.1401 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [1]. Profitability Data - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills was stable at 2,256 yuan per ton [1]. - As of July 11, the gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar was 196 yuan, hot-rolled sheets 142 yuan, and cold-rolled sheets 31 yuan, with week-on-week increases of 9 yuan, 16 yuan, and 20 yuan respectively [1][3].

基本每股收益 盈利：0.0828元/股 –0.0867元/股 盈利：0.0509元/股 二、与会计师事务所沟通情况 本次业绩预告未经过会计师事务所预审计。 证券代码：000959 证券简称：首钢股份 公告编号：2025-029 北京首钢股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 （一）业绩预告期间：2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日 （二）业绩预告情况：同向上升 归属于上市公司 盈利：64200万元–67200万元 盈利：39478万元 股东的净利润 比上年同期增长：62.62% - 70.22% 盈利：66180万元 –69180万元 扣除非经常性损 比上年同期增长： 盈利：27265万元 益后的净利润 三、业绩变动原因说明 报告期内，公司坚持创新驱动，持续优化产品结构与客户结构， 坚持打造"制造+服务"竞争优势，战略产品产销量同比增长；公司 生产顺稳，通过持续与标杆企业对标，深挖全要素降本潜力，有效降 低生产成本，对冲外部市场减利因素，2025 年上半年经营业绩同比 增长。 四、风险提示 ...