Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and six other departments are actively promoting auto loan business by considering borrowers' credit levels and repayment capabilities to reasonably determine loan issuance ratios, terms, and interest rates, while also providing relief from penalties for early loan repayment during vehicle trade-in processes [1] Group 1 - The initiative aims to enhance the accessibility of auto loans for consumers [1] - The policy includes measures to reduce penalties associated with early loan repayment when trading in old vehicles [1] - The focus is on evaluating the borrower's creditworthiness and repayment ability to set appropriate loan conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is currently facing intense competition, likened to a sprint rather than a marathon, necessitating decisive actions and strategic planning to navigate challenges and opportunities [5][7][9]. Group 1: Industry Events and Trends - The 17th Xuanyuan Automotive Blue Book Forum was held in Guangzhou, coinciding with Typhoon "Butterfly," which affected attendance but highlighted the importance of the event [5][16]. - The theme of the forum was "Decisions," emphasizing the need for the automotive industry to make clear and effective choices amidst rapid changes [5][9]. - The forum aims to create a ripple effect in the automotive industry, with discussions and debates serving as motivation for industry professionals [10][14]. Group 2: Media and Publications - The company is launching various media platforms, including "Automotive Business Review" and "Xuanyuan Business Review," aimed at becoming opinion leaders in the automotive sector and exploring new technologies [12][14]. - "Xuanyuan Business Review" is positioned as an upgraded version of "Automotive Business Review," focusing on fashion and new technologies beyond traditional automotive boundaries [12]. Group 3: Awards and Recognition - The forum introduced three major awards: the Xuanyuan Award for annual contributions to the automotive industry, the Lingxuan Award for contributions in automotive parts, and the Golden Xuanyuan Award for automotive marketing [13]. - The 10th Lingxuan Award evaluation ceremony was launched during the forum, encouraging participation from automotive supply chain companies [13]. Group 4: Educational Initiatives - The "Xuanyuan Classmates" initiative aims to foster learning and innovation within the automotive industry, emphasizing collaboration and shared growth among industry professionals [13][14]. - The program has evolved over the years but remains focused on empowering individuals in the new automotive landscape [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is collectively taking action against "involution" competition, with a strong emphasis on ceasing harmful price wars and fostering a sustainable competitive environment [2][3][4] Group 1: Industry Response to Involution - The automotive industry has reached a consensus that endless price wars lead to a detrimental cycle where all participants lose, significantly impacting profitability [2][3] - In 2024, the profit margin for the automotive manufacturing sector was reported at 4.3%, an 8% decline year-on-year, which is lower than the overall industrial profit margin of 5.4% [2] - The call to resist "involution" competition is becoming a collective voice and action within the automotive sector [2] Group 2: Government and Industry Initiatives - The China Automotive Industry Association has called for fair competition and adherence to legal business practices, urging companies not to engage in predatory pricing or monopolistic behaviors [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology supports the initiative and plans to intensify efforts to address "involution" competition [3] - Major automotive companies have publicly opposed chaotic price wars and have committed to actions such as ensuring payment terms to suppliers do not exceed 60 days [3][4] Group 3: Defining and Addressing Involution - The industry recognizes the need for a clear definition of "involution" to effectively combat it, emphasizing that not all price reductions equate to involution [5] - A precise assessment of what constitutes "involution" is essential for comprehensive remediation efforts [5] - The automotive sector is encouraged to adopt a more scientific and comprehensive approach to identify involution behaviors, focusing on underlying factors rather than surface-level metrics [5] Group 4: ESG Framework for Evaluation - The ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) framework is proposed as a method to evaluate involution risks within the automotive industry, focusing on product quality, safety, and sustainable practices [6][7] - Key indicators from the ESG framework include product safety, service quality, social contributions, and climate change responses, which are critical for assessing involution risks [8][9] - Data from 2020 to 2024 indicates a rise in product complaints and an increase in payment terms to suppliers, highlighting the need for automotive companies to commit to timely payments [10][11] Group 5: Long-term Strategy and Industry Health - The automotive industry is urged to adopt long-term strategies that prioritize sustainable development over short-term gains, balancing immediate costs with future benefits [12][13] - The establishment of a standardized ESG evaluation system is seen as vital for creating a healthy competitive environment and guiding companies away from involution practices [12][13] - The ongoing refinement of the ESG framework is expected to provide clearer definitions and standards for identifying involution, ultimately fostering a more sustainable automotive industry [13]

2025 年 6 月 18 日 地缘迷雾渐晰，经济视角重归 ---2025 年下半年海外宏观及大类资产展望 戴璐 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021475 dailu@gtht.com 报告导读： 安 期 货 研 究 所 我们预计 2025 年美国 GDP 同比趋势边际放缓，但基准预期下进入衰退概率较小。预计 2025 年美国 GDP 同比趋势边际 放缓，其中 2Q 实际 GDP 同比预期录 1.7%，3Q 录 0.9%，4Q 录 0.6%，同比增速低点或在 4Q，预期 2026 年美国经济边际反 弹，全年实际 GDP 增速 1.5%，或强于今年 1.3%。预期美国 CPI 同比增速在 3Q 较当前水平有所反弹，或升至 2.9%附近，并 在 4Q 至 2026 年初时段有所回落。对比其他经济体，我们预期欧元区 GDP 同比增速在 2Q 录 1.1%，3Q 录 0.8%，4Q 录 0.8%， 整体亦呈温和边际下行态势，但美国经济增速与欧元区经济增速差在今年剩下时间继续缩窄。 全球尚不具备需求-通胀-库存向上的宏观环境：就业端边际放缓而不弱，消费端下半年需求动能可能并无太多想象力； 从制造业、库存周期看，下半年或较上 ...

【文/观察者网 王一】当地时间6月16日，日本首相石破茂和美国总统特朗普在七国集团（G7）峰会上 举行了30分钟的会晤，主要讨论关税问题，但双方未能达成一致。 《日经亚洲》18日分析指出，日本自恃是美国的盟友和最大的投资者，一上来就想争取特殊关税豁免的 态度，反而导致美国更加不愿松口。而日本原想在此次谈判中打"中国牌"，提议与美国在稀土、半导体 等领域加强合作，却没想到美国率先与中国达成了协议，导致日本失去了这一谈判筹码。 在会晤后的记者会上，石破茂表示，"现在仍然存在双方认识不一致的点，因此未能达成整体协议"。 日美首脑会谈未能就取消关税达成一致。视觉中国 "美国急于与中国谈判是日本的另一项误判，"日媒指出，作为谈判筹码之一，日本原本计划向美国提 议，双方在美国与中国存在紧张关系的领域进行合作，例如加强稀土和半导体供应链的建设。但美国先 与中国达成了协议，导致日本的提议不再那么有吸引力。 当被问及达成协议的时间框架时，石破茂表示："很难说何时能解决此事。" 汽车产业对日本经济至关重要。根据日本汽车工业协会的数据，8.3%的日本劳动力都从事汽车相关工 作，汽车业为日本贡献了约10%的GDP（国内生产总值）。联 ...

第四届中国—非洲经贸博览会于6月12日至15日在湖南长沙举办。本届博览会以"中非共行动、逐梦 现代化"为主题，超过40个非洲国家及国际组织参会。现场，30多家江苏对非经贸合作企业组成的"苏商 团"引人注目，他们带着工程建设、加工制造、太阳能光伏等领域的创新成果与合作诚意，分享这场国 际经贸盛宴。 近年来，江苏与非洲经贸往来持续升温，参展的江苏企业期待，通过此次博览会，促进交流、合作 与签约，为江苏非洲合作再添新动力。 硕果盈枝，标志项目树典范 一项项标志性工程，如坚固的纽带，紧密联结着江苏与非洲的经贸往来，见证着双方携手共进的深 厚情谊，也让江苏成为非洲信赖的重要合作伙伴。 中国化学工程第十四建设有限公司作为江苏参展企业的代表，带来令人兴奋的消息。其在尼日利亚 阿夸伊博姆州执行的非洲最大LNG储罐项目正如火如荼推进，预计今年11月份将迎来升顶作业。这一 项目不仅是技术实力的彰显，更将为当地能源产业注入强大动力，推动区域经济发展。 江苏与非洲产业合作具有极强的互补性，随着新兴技术快速发展，以及绿色、低碳、可持续发展方 式不断演进，双方不断拓展合作领域。 江苏苏豪外经实业有限公司积极深化在非的供应链项目，扎根尼日 ...

金十数据6月12日讯，日本央行前委员政井贵子周四表示，美国总统特朗普的关税可能已经令日本央行 的加息周期结束，由于预计出口将受到打击，进一步加息的可能性正在迅速下降。与现任决策者保持密 切联系的政井表示，美国贸易政策的不确定性正在对全球经济造成巨大干扰，这可能会打击日本的出 口、产出、工资增长和消费。由于汽车行业在日本经济中扮演着巨大的角色，美国的汽车关税尤其具有 破坏性。她说，"对日本经济的真正考验可能会在2026年到来"，因为美国关税的影响将在6到12个月后 开始显现。"日本央行可能在相当长一段时间内无法加息，"她表示。 日本央行前委员政井贵子：特朗普关税已经刹停日本央行加息周期 ...

在美国总统特朗普4月扩大关税措施之前，日本经济已经处于收缩状态。 对于一季度已萎缩的日本经济而言，前景依旧不容乐观。 日本内阁府6月9日发布的数据显示，日本第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）折合年率为下降0.2%，低于 此前预估的0.7%。 其中，个人消费增长了0.1%，企业支出增长了1.1%。库存为经济增长贡献了0.6个百分点，而净出口则 拖累了经济增长0.8个百分点。上述数据显示，在美国总统特朗普4月扩大关税措施之前，日本经济已经 处于收缩状态。 牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）日本首席经济学家长井滋人（Nagai Shigeto）近日在接受第一财 经记者采访时表示，对日本经济后续的走势较为悲观。在一季度增速下降后，长井预计，今年二季度日 本GDP增速会持平，"消费会维持温和增长的态势，但是全球经济增速放缓会影响日本的出口，同时， 围绕美国关税的高度不确定性会抑制日本国内外的投资。" 五轮关税谈判"无果" 在日本内阁府关于最新GDP数据公布前，日美刚刚结束第五轮关税谈判，但依然毫无进展。日本经济再 生担当大臣赤泽亮正于当地时间6月5日~6日在华盛顿出席了第五轮日美关税谈判。事后，他表示双 方 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-06-09 二、商品投资参考 综合 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250603 | 2025/05 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 48.30 | 50.40 | 51.70 | | 20250605 | 2025/05 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 51.10 | 50.70 | 54.00 | | | | ...

日美部长级磋商后，日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正回答记者提问（6月6日，华盛顿） 在日美关税磋商中，日本向美国提出了应对中国的一揽子方案。但与此同时，中美两国表现 出接近的姿态，这可能使日本在美国眼中的优先级下降。日本表示"面向达成协议，讨论进一 步深入"，但同时表示：还未找到一致点…… 日美两国政府正在不断快速推进关税谈判。日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正于美国当地时间6月 6日下午在华盛顿出席第五次部长级磋商。日美最近已连续三周进行高频率谈判。赤泽亮对记 者团表示："以达成协议为目标的讨论进一步取得进展"，但同时也表示"尚未找到一致点"。 考虑到6月中旬的首脑会谈，正在加紧进行协调。 日本首相石破茂6月7日对记者团的提问回答称："据我所知，双方围绕国家利益展开了全力以 赴的认真讨论"。 磋商结束后的6日晚（日本时间7日），赤泽亮正出现在日本驻美大使馆，做出揉眼动作，显 露出疲惫的神情。谈判团的一名成员透露："连续出差让身体有些吃不消了"，"虽然很想休 息，但现在并不是休息的时候"。 关于第五轮谈判的结果，赤泽亮正表示"面向达成协议，讨论进一步深入"，避免提及具体内 容。但同时表示："我们还未找到一致点" 能否进一步 ...