报告日期：2025 年 12 月 22 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 12 月 22 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 重要推荐 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺】长龄液压（605389）公司深度：核芯系拟入主，液压件龙头将开启新篇章— —20251219 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 【浙商宏观 李超/潘高远】宏观深度报告：11 月财政收支双缓，与基本面放缓一致——20251218 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/赵闻恺】A 股策略周报：中线方向三天两变，一颗红心、两手准备——20251220 【浙商固收 胡建文】债券市场专题研究：跨年资金成本低于预期，存单曲线走陡进行时——20251221 浙商早报 1 重要推荐 1.1 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺】长龄液压（605389）公司深度：核芯系拟入主，液压件龙 头将开启新篇章——20251219 1、机械-长龄液压（605389） 2、推荐逻辑：核 ...

Core Views - The report suggests that 2026 may witness a structural recovery in earnings, leading to a slow bull market in A-shares, driven by technology and cyclical sectors, despite high valuations [5][17] - The main theme for 2026 is expected to be a continuation of loose liquidity and a structural recovery in earnings, with potential for strong performance in technology and cyclical industries [6][37] Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates, maintaining a loose liquidity environment domestically [19][24] - Exports are anticipated to face high base pressure but may still show resilience, particularly in high-tech products and emerging markets [26][27] - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by proactive fiscal policies and increased issuance of special bonds [28] - Real estate investment growth is likely to remain weak, although policies may ease, leading to a gradual stabilization in housing prices and sales [30] - Manufacturing investment growth is projected to stabilize and recover, driven by policies promoting new productive forces and equipment upgrades [32] Industry Allocation - The report recommends focusing on technology growth and cyclical growth as the main allocation themes for 2026, with specific attention to sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), electric new energy, machinery, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, military industry, and non-bank financials [7] - Large-cap and small-cap stocks are expected to perform relatively well, with a tilt towards cyclical styles [7] Earnings Recovery - Earnings in the technology and cyclical sectors are expected to continue rising, contributing positively to overall A-share performance [37][39] - The report highlights that fiscal policy support may enhance corporate earnings growth, similar to past instances of fiscal stimulus [39]

Group 1 - Gold prices have declined again, approaching the $4100 mark, nearly reversing all gains from the previous day [2] - The recent drop resembles the trend from Tuesday, lacking a clear reason, possibly due to concerns over the upcoming U.S. CPI announcement, leading to weakened short-term buying interest [3] - The closing price of $4123 on Tuesday is seen as a psychological threshold; if Friday's close does not exceed this level, there may be an increased risk of accelerated declines [4] Group 2 - A survey conducted revealed that over 62% of investors remain bullish on gold in the long term, while only 23% believe it has peaked and will decline in the short term, indicating persistent market confidence [4] - 50% of investors indicated they would increase their positions if gold prices fall below $4000, while only 7% would exit to prevent further losses, although actual execution of such strategies may be less than half [4] - Many investors view the $4000 level as a short-term bottom for gold prices, suggesting two scenarios: either a rebound occurs before reaching this level, or a rapid drop below $4000 could lead to greater market distress [4] Group 3 - A report titled "Global Market Strategy: Silence Before the Storm" suggests that the market is awaiting a significant movement, which could be either favorable or detrimental [5] - The report highlights a popular A-share strategy circulating on Wall Street, which includes five key recommendations for bullish positions on Chinese stocks [6] - Upcoming U.S.-China meetings are anticipated to reveal critical developments, summarized in five key words [6]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities' report indicates that the Sino-U.S. negotiations are slow-moving variables, with inevitable fluctuations impacting the mid-term market's elasticity and rhythm [1] Market Analysis - Short-term market pricing appears more restrained compared to April, with future developments dependent on both parties' statements [1] - The market is entering a consolidation phase, influenced by the need for the tech sector to validate performance and the pressure from less favorable cost-performance ratios, alongside insufficient support from other sectors [1] Mid-term Outlook - There is an expectation of upward elasticity in A-share earnings for next year, which is difficult to refute, while the valuation comparison with strong market trends remains neutral [1] - The foundation for a positive capital cycle still exists, indicating an upward trend in the market's central tendency [1] Investment Strategy - The report suggests taking appropriate profit-taking opportunities to maintain flexibility [1] - It emphasizes the importance of diversification in asset allocation, focusing on cost-performance and industry prosperity, particularly in semiconductor equipment, AI edge computing, and lithium battery materials [1] - Continued holding of gold is recommended as a hedge against uncertainties arising from Sino-U.S. tensions [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "long-term" and "steady" investment outlook for the A-share market, indicating favorable conditions for sustained growth [8]. Core Insights - The A-share market has experienced a significant upward trend since last September, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 40% [2]. - Historical analysis of previous long-term upward phases in the A-share market reveals that these phases typically last 2-3 years, characterized by substantial overall gains and increased trading volumes driven by new capital inflows [2][3]. - The current market rally is supported by macroeconomic improvements and favorable liquidity conditions, alongside key industry trends such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, high-end manufacturing, and new energy [6][9]. Summary by Sections Historical Upward Phases - The report reviews past upward phases in the A-share market, noting that each phase began from significant market lows and was marked by investor pessimism, followed by a gradual increase in market volatility and investor behavior divergence [2][3]. - Key historical phases include 2005-2007, 2013-2015, and 2019-2021, each exhibiting distinct characteristics and driving factors [2][5]. Driving Factors - The report identifies macroeconomic recovery and liquidity improvements as primary drivers of the current market rally, with a focus on the growth of key industries [3][6]. - The ongoing capital market reforms and government policies are expected to enhance market vitality and support long-term growth [4][8]. Earnings and Valuation - The report anticipates a turnaround in earnings growth for A-share companies, projecting a 3.5% overall growth rate for the year, with non-financial sectors expected to exceed 8% growth [3][10]. - Current valuations of the A-share market remain reasonable, with the CSI 300 index trading at a PE ratio of approximately 14 times, which is relatively low compared to other global markets [10][11]. Market Characteristics - The report highlights that the current market phase is characterized by a clear focus on growth styles, particularly in technology and innovative sectors, with a rotation among leading industries [6][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and fundamental improvements in driving market performance, suggesting that the current rally may have more sustainable characteristics compared to previous phases [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that the A-share market reached new highs last week, with abundant liquidity being the main foundation for the market trend. The consensus is gradually strengthening that the market is entering an upward trend, despite potential short-term adjustments not being too deep [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The significance and probability of determining the market peak in the short term are considered low [1] - The three key pillars for the market's upward trend are improvements in domestic fundamentals, domestic liquidity, and overseas liquidity, all of which are currently showing positive changes [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain positions, select stocks based on trends, and moderately switch between high and low sectors [1] - Strategic focus areas for investment include AI chain, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and large financial sectors, with an emphasis on internal high-low adjustments [1]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Baolingbao (002286) driven by product structure optimization and benefits from anti-dumping measures, with a projected revenue of 2,581 million CNY in 2025, growing at a rate of 7.46% [6] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 181 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a significant growth rate of 62.89% [6] - The report suggests that the impact of trade conflicts on the company is minimal due to its low overseas revenue contribution, with 76% of revenue coming from the domestic market [6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The A-share market is anticipated to undergo a phase of "active adjustment," with a focus on structural changes in holdings and waiting for external news, particularly regarding tariff negotiations [8] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a potential U-shaped trajectory for the economy, with slower price recovery expected in the second quarter compared to the first [10] - The bond market is expected to see opportunities for long-term bonds as the market gradually returns to fundamental trading, following recent monetary policy adjustments [12] Group 3: Company Performance - Taotao Automotive (301345) reported a remarkable 69% year-on-year growth in Q1, indicating a strong market position and potential for continued market share expansion [14] - The company is benefiting from accelerated production capacity in Southeast Asia and the U.S., along with exceeding expectations in golf cart orders [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade dynamics as a catalyst for future performance [14]