SAC 执证编号：S0080523070023 SFC CE Ref：BSV154 dong.wei@cicc.com.cn 证券研究报告 2025.09.21 A 股策略 A 股"长期"、"稳进"的四大条件 SAC 执证编号：S0080521070010 SFC CE Ref：BRQ876 kaisong.huang@cicc.com.cn 去年 9 月至今A股自底部阶段震荡上行，当下行情已持续一年左右时间，上证指数累计涨幅超过 40%。 本篇报告中我们系统回顾过去 20 年左右A股持续时间较长的几次上行阶段，典型如 2005-2007 年、 2013-2015 年、2019-2021 年等，分析其行情起因、背景和市场特征，供借鉴参考： 历史几次上涨阶段的行情特征及当下对比 1） 上涨行情概况：三次上涨行情均表现出持续时间较长（2-3 年左右）、整体涨幅明显、增量资金入市 带来成交显著放大的特征。行情在启动起始期均为历史"大底"（2005 年 6 月、2013 年 6 月、2019 年 1 月），投资者对后市预期极度悲观时期；从历史低点到指数层面的震荡上行，形成一定赚钱效应后，市场 波动率逐渐加大，在上涨过 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that the A-share market reached new highs last week, with abundant liquidity being the main foundation for the market trend. The consensus is gradually strengthening that the market is entering an upward trend, despite potential short-term adjustments not being too deep [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The significance and probability of determining the market peak in the short term are considered low [1] - The three key pillars for the market's upward trend are improvements in domestic fundamentals, domestic liquidity, and overseas liquidity, all of which are currently showing positive changes [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain positions, select stocks based on trends, and moderately switch between high and low sectors [1] - Strategic focus areas for investment include AI chain, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and large financial sectors, with an emphasis on internal high-low adjustments [1]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Baolingbao (002286) driven by product structure optimization and benefits from anti-dumping measures, with a projected revenue of 2,581 million CNY in 2025, growing at a rate of 7.46% [6] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 181 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a significant growth rate of 62.89% [6] - The report suggests that the impact of trade conflicts on the company is minimal due to its low overseas revenue contribution, with 76% of revenue coming from the domestic market [6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The A-share market is anticipated to undergo a phase of "active adjustment," with a focus on structural changes in holdings and waiting for external news, particularly regarding tariff negotiations [8] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a potential U-shaped trajectory for the economy, with slower price recovery expected in the second quarter compared to the first [10] - The bond market is expected to see opportunities for long-term bonds as the market gradually returns to fundamental trading, following recent monetary policy adjustments [12] Group 3: Company Performance - Taotao Automotive (301345) reported a remarkable 69% year-on-year growth in Q1, indicating a strong market position and potential for continued market share expansion [14] - The company is benefiting from accelerated production capacity in Southeast Asia and the U.S., along with exceeding expectations in golf cart orders [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade dynamics as a catalyst for future performance [14]