上周，东北老家一家外资连锁五星酒店品牌销售负责人Alice突然在微信上小窗我。 "姐，最近家里有人结婚、升学、谢师、满月随便啥事，都来我这啊，打七折呢。" 我盯着那行字，想起离家多年已经和她快断了联系。 Alice在我的印象里，一直是那种不用发圈拉客也能把业绩做得溜光锃亮的人。 以前聊天，她最多跟我抱怨后厨晚班不靠谱，或者哪个活动现场又有熊孩子乱跑，怎么也没想到有朝一 日，她会拉下脸，挨个翻通讯录喊人"来吃顿饭帮帮忙"。 我问她："怎么想起我了？" 她隔了好一会儿才发来一个哭笑的表情："压力大呗，能问的都问了一圈，之前刷到你们写的《国内五 星酒店纷纷卷地摊，什么信号？》，我寻思业绩要是完不成，是不是也得让我们去摆地摊啊？" 听她哭惨，我心里多少还是有些好奇，毕竟每次过年回家，看见那栋高高在上的酒店都觉得是我们这座 地级市的地标建筑。 小地方一直缺国际品牌，这家酒店开业至今一直是城市名片，很多人第一次见到大堂那种气派，都要先 拍个照发朋友圈。 由于稀缺性，我以为她们生意没啥可担心的，毕竟竞争对手少得可怜，顺风顺水才对，哪想到也被"禁 酒令"一锅端了。 我问她："影响是从最近开始的吗？" 她发了一连串语音，声音听 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is the leading brand in the mid-range ready-to-drink tea segment, achieving a store count of 9,914 by the end of 2024, making it the largest in its category [1][16]. - The mid-range ready-to-drink tea market is projected to reach approximately RMB 161.5 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 20.8% from 2024 to 2028, indicating strong growth potential [2]. - The company has a robust growth strategy focusing on store expansion and improving same-store sales, with expectations of net store additions of 2,100, 2,350, and 2,450 in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2010, the company has expanded rapidly across China, with a significant presence in 17 provinces and a focus on franchise operations [1][16]. - The company went public on February 12, 2025, marking a significant milestone as the first Zhejiang tea company to list [1][16]. Market Analysis - The mid-range tea segment is characterized by intense competition, with the company holding the largest market share as of 2023, followed closely by other brands [2][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain management and product innovation to maintain competitive advantage in a crowded market [2][15]. Growth Drivers - The company’s growth is driven by a dual strategy of expanding its store network and enhancing the average sales per store, with a projected average GMV of RMB 2.34 million per mature franchise store [3][4]. - The company aims to reach a store count of 27,000 by 2030 under a neutral scenario, with revenue and profit projections of RMB 29.3 billion and RMB 5.3 billion respectively [3][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 87.9 billion in 2024 to RMB 113.3 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 28.9% [5][36]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from RMB 15.4 billion in 2024 to RMB 20.1 billion in 2025, representing a growth of 30.1% [5][36]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a target PE ratio of 32-35x for 2025, with a market capitalization range of RMB 64.2 billion to RMB 70.2 billion, indicating a potential upside from the current share price [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on "supply-side optimization" and "anti-involution" competition, with potential policy implementations expected in the second half of the year [3][8]. - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" include those with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels, particularly in sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel, and various manufacturing and consumer goods [3][11][13]. - The report outlines five perspectives for identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) share, industry concentration, tax revenue impact, labor intensity, and price elasticity post-capacity reduction [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Focus - The report highlights that the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1 emphasized supply-side optimization and "anti-involution" competition, referencing past supply-side reforms from 2015-2016 as a model for future policy actions [3][8]. Key Industry Characteristics - Industries with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels are targeted for policy intervention. These include: - Cyclical industries: Chemicals (chemical products, rubber, non-metallic materials), non-ferrous metals (energy metals), coal, and steel (common steel, steel raw materials) [3][11]. - Manufacturing: Electric new (motors, grid equipment, batteries, photovoltaics), machinery (automation equipment), automotive (passenger vehicles), military electronics, and construction [3][11]. - Consumer goods: Home appliances (appliance components), food and beverage (food processing, liquor, snacks) [3][11]. Five Perspectives for Industry Selection - **State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Share**: Industries with higher SOE shares are expected to have stronger policy execution efficiency, including coal, common steel, cement, glass, and consumer sectors like liquor [3][5]. - **Industry Concentration**: Higher concentration industries are more likely to achieve supply clearing through stronger pricing power and quicker policy response, particularly in energy metals, non-metallic materials, and consumer goods like liquor [3][5]. - **Tax Revenue Impact**: Industries with lower tax revenue contributions will have a smaller impact on local finances during capacity reduction, focusing on sectors like glass, energy metals, and common steel [3][5]. - **Labor Intensity**: Industries with lower labor intensity will have a reduced impact on employment during capacity reduction, including non-metallic materials, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. - **Price Elasticity Post-Capacity Reduction**: Industries with a strong correlation between asset turnover and gross margin are expected to see greater price and margin expansion post-capacity reduction, including glass, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. Potential Beneficiary Industries - The report identifies several industries as potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies based on the five perspectives, including: - Coal mining, common steel, precious metals, glass fiber, coke, energy metals, steel raw materials, cement, chemical products, non-metallic materials, and various manufacturing sectors [6][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [52]. Core Insights - The social services sector has seen a 5.39% increase in the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.86 percentage points, ranking 12th among 31 sectors [1][12]. - The summer travel season has begun, with a slight decrease in air travel costs year-on-year, suggesting positive operational performance for travel-related companies during the peak season [1][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The social services sector's performance in the last two weeks (June 23 - July 4, 2025) shows a 5.39% increase, ranking 12th among 31 sectors [12]. - The sub-sectors within social services, including education (+11.42%) and professional services (+4.51%), all experienced growth [16]. 2. Industry Dynamics and Company News - The civil aviation sector is expected to handle 150 million passengers during the summer travel period, with a daily average of over 2.4 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4% [1][4]. - The "Su Super" sports events have significantly boosted local consumption, with hotel occupancy rates increasing by 20%-30% and related retail spending rising by 15%-25% [1][4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong growth potential in the travel chain and related industries include Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [4]. - The recovery of business travel and increased market share for hotel brands such as Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel are highlighted as key investment opportunities [4]. 4. Travel Data Tracking - Domestic travel has largely recovered post-pandemic, with international travel policies gradually easing, indicating a positive trend for the travel industry [39][40].

且从产能角度看，目前煤炭、钢铁等传统周期性行业的"落后产能"已基本出清完毕，加之上市公司并购重组/央国企整合也基本完 毕，行业集中度显著提升。在此背景下，通过行政手段进一步出清产能的空间已极为有限。 | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 结论 | | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | | | 短期来看,全球市场定价核心在于7月9日美 国与各国贸易协定进展,此前美国总统特朗 普表示不考虑延长关税豁免最后期限,但此 | | | | | 种表态也可能是一种谈判策略,美国对部分 | | | | | 国家关税也有延期可能。上半年我国经济增 | 关注两条主线:1)中报业绩预期有望 | | 华西策略 | 下半年央行降准降息仍有空间,A | 长动能强劲,全年经济增速目标达成的压力 | 向好方向,如:风电、火电、机器人 | | | | | 等:2) 前期海外英伟达产业链突破新 | | 李立峰 | 股稳中向上趋势不变。 | 减轻。然而对于下半年而言，无论关税最终 | | | | | 结果如何,出口对增长的拉动力都会比上半 | 高,可期待国产链补涨行情。 | | | | ...

Group 1 - Björn Frantzén becomes the only chef in the world to hold three Michelin three-star restaurants, with the newly opened FZN in Dubai receiving the accolade shortly after its launch [3] - FZN is the first restaurant in the UAE to achieve Michelin three-star status, highlighting its rapid rise in the global dining scene [3] Group 2 - Marriott International's Bonvoy program launches the second season of "Taste of China," focusing on Yunnan's highland wine culture, collaborating with four boutique wineries [5] - The program features chefs from Xi'an, Chengdu, Shenzhen, and Shanghai, showcasing the essence of various Chinese cuisines [5] Group 3 - Shangri-La Hotels hosts a themed dinner featuring chefs from Jiangsu, Fujian, and Shanghai, presenting a menu that combines Huaiyang and Fujian culinary styles [7] - The event emphasizes the collaboration of chefs to create innovative dishes that reflect regional flavors [7] Group 4 - J Hotel Shanghai Center introduces a summer afternoon tea featuring six summer-themed desserts, highlighting local and seasonal ingredients [9] - The afternoon tea experience is designed to celebrate the hotel's fourth anniversary [9] Group 5 - Bulgari Hotel Shanghai's Michelin-starred restaurant Il Ristorante – Niko Romito launches a summer menu featuring seasonal Italian dishes [11] - The hotel also offers various summer experiences, including a new afternoon tea and a limited-edition dessert [11] Group 6 - Caviar Kaspia collaborates with Andaz Shenzhen Bay to present a caviar cake, showcasing a blend of Russian and local culinary techniques [13] - The cake features layers of crepes and caviar, highlighting the balance of flavors [13] Group 7 - Ningbo Langham Hotel's Ming Ge restaurant hosts a dinner featuring renowned Cantonese chefs, focusing on the heritage and innovation of Cantonese cuisine [15] - The event showcases a blend of traditional and modern culinary techniques [15] Group 8 - 1929 by Guillaume Galliot opens in Shanghai, offering a modern French dining experience that incorporates local and Asian flavors [17] - The restaurant emphasizes the natural flavors of ingredients and the balance of sauces [17] Group 9 - Shangri-La Pudong appoints a new executive chef for its Chinese restaurant, aiming to innovate and reinterpret classic Huaiyang cuisine [19] - The new chef plans to incorporate elements from other regional cuisines into the menu [19] Group 10 - Krug Champagne announces VIVANT by Johnny Pham as its new ambassador restaurant in China, featuring a special dish inspired by the theme "Krug in the Kitchen" [21] - The dish creatively combines carrot with beef tartare, paired with two Krug Champagne varieties [21]

以下文章来源于旅界 ，作者theodore熙少 旅界 . 跟踪时代浪潮，讲述文旅商业好故事。 县城酒店"断炊"背后。 作者 | theodore熙少 来源 | 旅界 （ID：tourismzonenews） 01 老韩是我相识多年的一位读者朋友，他在华北一座中等县城经营着一家四星酒店。 6月一到，他就频频发微信给我，开场白总是一样的："熙少，今年真难。" 难在哪？饭桌上。 "你知道吗？我们这淡季的酒店餐饮营收，一般能占到总收入一半或以上，今年连往年收 入的三成都没有。" 我问为什么。他说了一句话： "饭局没了。" 以老韩所在的县城为例，他说，不是所有的公务人员都不吃饭了，但吃得特别低调。 落座前先问有没有包间，服务员菜单还没翻完，客人就说："不喝酒，随便吃点。" 菜刚上两道，人吃得飞快，结账比点单还利索。 老韩摇头："饭都没吃完呢，人就走了。以前是一桌吃三小时，现在恨不得三十分钟就闪 人。" 据老韩回忆，酒店的餐饮生意是从今年5月中旬左右突然"冷下来"的，升学宴、婚宴取 消的不少，就连最关键的公务接待，也悄然消失。 " 往 年 这 个 时 候 ， 天 天 有 包 间 满 座 ， 体 制 内 的 、 招 商 的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [4][26]. Core Insights - Financial policies are expected to boost service consumption, with a promising outlook for summer tourism. The combination of seasonal demand, policy support, and AI empowerment is anticipated to drive the tourism market [8][21]. - The summer tourism peak is projected to occur in early July, with family and child travelers making up a significant portion of the demand. The trend of off-peak travel is also highlighted, with specific regions showing increased hotel booking activity [2][20]. Market Performance Summary - The social service sector index experienced a weekly increase of 4.61%, ranking 8th among 31 sectors. The sub-industry performance varied, with professional services leading at 5.70% [1][9]. - Notable individual stock performances included significant gains for companies like Electric Science Institute (16.54%) and Tianmu Lake (14.09%) [1][9]. Industry News Dynamics - The report highlights various initiatives aimed at enhancing tourism experiences, such as the launch of a smart service platform in Zhejiang and promotional activities in Chongqing to attract tourists [22][23]. - The integration of AI technologies in cultural tourism is reshaping visitor experiences, with innovative applications enhancing service efficiency and customer engagement [20][21].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed the annual high set on March 18, 2025, and is approaching the high from October 8, 2024, indicating a significant market movement [1] - There is a noticeable divergence among various sectors, with banking, agriculture, personal care, military, chemical, transportation, and petrochemical industries showing a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 closing prices [1] - Conversely, sectors such as steel, electronics, home appliances, telecommunications, computers, and electrical equipment have a lower proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 levels [1] Group 2 - In the secondary industry analysis, financial (banking, insurance, diversified finance), military (naval equipment, ground weaponry), agriculture (animal health, agricultural products, planting, feed), precious metals, personal care products, and chemical pharmaceuticals show a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 closing prices [4] - Sectors like home appliances, electrical equipment, TMT (television broadcasting, communication services, consumer electronics, semiconductors, optical electronics), general steel, and machinery (engineering machinery, automation equipment) have a lower proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 levels [4] - Comparing to the October 8, 2024 closing prices, banking, motorcycles, military (ground weaponry, aerospace equipment), chemicals (plastics, non-metallic materials), and new consumption (entertainment products, personal care products, retail, accessories) show a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their previous levels [4]

Core Viewpoint - Xi'an Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co., Ltd. is focusing on enhancing its competitive advantages and operational efficiency through strategic reforms and integrated management in the cultural tourism sector [2][4][6]. Group 1: Shareholder Meeting Procedures - Shareholders have the right to speak, inquire, and vote during the annual general meeting, with prior registration required for speaking [1]. - Voting will be conducted through a combination of on-site and online methods, with shareholders allowed to choose only one voting method [1][2]. - The meeting will be monitored by a team consisting of lawyers, shareholder representatives, and supervisors [2]. Group 2: Business Performance and Strategy - The company reported that its tourism scenic area operation management business accounts for 52% of its revenue, with key attractions including the "Daming Palace National Heritage Park" and "Datang Furong Garden" [7]. - The company aims to enhance its cultural tourism offerings by integrating various services such as hotel management, travel services, and cultural performances [6][8]. - The company plans to achieve approximately 1 billion yuan in revenue for the fiscal year 2025, with cost control measures in place [17]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages and Challenges - The company has received several honors, including recognition for its historical parks and cultural performances, which strengthen its market position [4][6]. - Challenges include the need to revitalize underperforming assets and transition towards a more integrated cultural and tourism model [6][8]. - The company is focusing on the development of cultural IP and enhancing the integration of tourism and cultural heritage [16]. Group 4: Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company adheres to legal regulations and continuously improves its corporate governance structure to protect shareholder interests [17][28]. - A comprehensive internal control system has been established to ensure effective management and compliance with regulatory requirements [28][29]. - The company has implemented a plan for investor relations management to enhance communication with stakeholders [26].