Group 1 - Alcoa Corp's stock is experiencing a significant surge, reaching three-year highs with a 7.3% increase to $60.67, and has risen approximately 40% in the last month, attracting investor attention [1] - The recent rally occurs amid historically low implied volatility, with the current implied volatility at 45%, which is in the 13th percentile of its annual range [2] - Historical data indicates that after similar trading conditions, Alcoa's stock was higher 60% of the time one month later, averaging an 8% gain, which could position shares at $65.71 if the trend continues [3] Group 2 - The stock's underlying support is noted at the 10-day moving average, providing a buffer in case of a short-term pullback [3]

Key Takeaways Market uncertainty amid geopolitical risks, policy questions and an unclear Fed rate path favor value stocks.Stocks were screened for earnings yield above 10%, liquidity, $5 prices and EPS growth versus the S&P 500.AAUC, AA, SBLK and PHIN show strong 2026 sales and EPS growth estimates, with upward EPS revisions.U.S. equities ended 2025 on a strong note, with the S&P 500 rising about 16%, but the outlook is turning complex. Geopolitical risks are back in focus after President Donald Trump anno ...

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation's Aluminum segment is experiencing strong demand in North America and Europe, particularly in the electrical and packaging markets, alongside progress on the San Ciprián smelter restart [1][8] Demand and Market Trends - The demand for aluminum has significantly increased due to the rising popularity of lighter and energy-efficient electric vehicles, recycled aluminum, and rechargeable batteries. Additionally, the growth in global air travel has led aircraft manufacturers to increase production, boosting demand for aluminum alloys [2] Production and Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Alcoa's aluminum production rose by 1% sequentially to 579,000 metric tons, with third-party revenues increasing by 4% due to higher average realized prices. The U.S. administration's decision to raise tariffs on imported aluminum to 50% has positively impacted domestic producers like Alcoa by increasing aluminum prices [3][8] - Alcoa anticipates aluminum production for 2025 to be between 2.3 million and 2.5 million tonnes, with shipments expected to range from 2.5 million to 2.6 million tonnes [4][8] Peer Comparison - Constellium SE's Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products segment saw shipments increase by 4% year-over-year to 820,000 metric tons in the first nine months of 2025, with revenues rising by 17% to $3.2 billion [5] - Olympic Steel, Inc.'s Specialty Metals Flat Products segment achieved its highest shipping volume in three years, with shipments up 6.1% year-over-year to 96,911 metric tons and revenues increasing by 5% to $405.1 million [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - Alcoa's shares have increased by 27.2% over the past month, outperforming the industry's growth of 24.1% [7] - The company is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.28X, which is above the industry's average of 11.80X, and holds a Value Score of B [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alcoa's 2025 earnings has risen by 7.5% over the past 60 days, indicating positive sentiment [10]

Core Insights - China has paused export restrictions on gallium until November 27, 2026, allowing the U.S. to address supply chain issues related to this strategic metal [1] Industry Overview - Gallium is a minor metal by volume but essential for modern technology, with annual U.S. demand around 20 tons; its absence could disrupt aerospace and defense sectors [2] - The U.S. lacks primary domestic production and federal stockpiles of gallium, making it vulnerable to supply shortages [2] Production Insights - China's dominance in gallium production stems from policy rather than geology, as Chinese aluminum producers have focused on gallium recovery, while U.S. processors lose gallium in waste [3] - Several companies, including Trafigura's Nyrstar and Rio Tinto, are exploring gallium recovery from existing processes, which could meet U.S. demand with modest investment [4][5] Recycling Opportunities - Recycling semiconductor scrap into high-purity gallium presents an underutilized opportunity, with potential partnerships with semiconductor manufacturers like Intel and Texas Instruments [7] Policy and Incentives - The industry requires clear incentives to drive gallium recovery initiatives, with the Department of Energy and other agencies positioned to support through financial mechanisms [8]

Market Performance - US stocks opened positively in 2026, with the Nasdaq Composite leading gains by over 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 increased by more than 0.2% and 0.5% respectively [1] - The S&P 500 rose over 16% in 2025, and the Nasdaq Composite saw a more than 20% increase [2] Economic Outlook - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with all Wall Street forecasters predicting a stock rally for a fourth consecutive year [3] - However, potential risks include a possible falter in the AI boom, unexpected changes in the US economy, and uncertainties surrounding President Trump's tariff policies [3] Commodity Market - Gold and silver prices advanced at the start of 2026, building on their best annual performances since 1979, while aluminum prices surpassed $3,000 per ton for the first time since 2022 [3] Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates, although there are mixed expectations for the March meeting, with divisions within the central bank likely to persist [4] - President Trump is anticipated to appoint a new chair to replace Jerome Powell this month [4]

This Week’s Deep-Value LandscapeThis week’s Acquirer’s Multiple® Large-Cap Screen continues to surface a familiar—but evolving—theme: extreme value is clustering in cash-generative Financials and cyclically exposed Industrials and Materials, while Energy takes a relative pause at the very top of the rankings.The common thread remains unchanged—the market is heavily discounting durable free-cash-flow producers despite strong operating results and shareholder returns.Financials Reassert Leadership in Deep Val ...

Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) is trading at new 3-year highs. The stock is up nearly 70% over the past year and has strong technical momentum. KALU maintains a 100% “Buy” opinion from Barchart. Analyst and investor sentiment is bullish, with multiple “Buy” ratings and low short interest at 3.34%. Today’s Featured Stock Valued at $1.91 billion, Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) is a leading producer of semi-fabricated specialty aluminum (ALH26) products, serving customers worldwide with highly engineered solutions ...

Alcoa Corp. (NYSE:AA) surged into the top 10th percentile of momentum-ranked stocks this week, with its Benzinga Edge’s Stock Rankings‘ momentum percentile jumping from 84.25 to 92.28—an 8.03-point delta signaling strong price strength and growing investor optimism amid an aluminum market recovery.Momentum Surge Highlights Building StrengthBenzinga Edge data shows Alcoa’s momentum score catapulting into elite territory, reflecting robust relative price performance and lower volatility compared to peers over ...

Alcoa Corp. (NYSE:AA) surged into the top 10th percentile of momentum-ranked stocks this week, with its Benzinga Edge’s Stock Rankings‘ momentum percentile jumping from 84.25 to 92.28—an 8.03-point delta signaling strong price strength and growing investor optimism amid an aluminum market recovery.Momentum Surge Highlights Building StrengthBenzinga Edge data shows Alcoa’s momentum score catapulting into elite territory, reflecting robust relative price performance and lower volatility compared to peers over ...

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