A long run of dominance from U.S. stocks could be ending.U.S. stocks have done very well for the past 15 years. According to research by Dodge & Cox, U.S. stocks outperformed international stocks by over 500% from 2010 through last year.Yes, the United States is an economic juggernaut and a pillar of the world's economy. That said, the U.S. stock market is near its highest valuation on record, leaving a significant valuation gap between U.S. and international stocks.But investing in non-U.S. companies isn't ...

Core Viewpoint - The Vanguard Value ETF is presented as a superior investment option compared to traditional S&P 500 tracking funds, particularly in the current market environment characterized by uncertainty and concentration in tech stocks [1][2]. Investment Strategy - The Vanguard Value ETF deliberately avoids large-cap tech stocks, focusing instead on dividend-paying companies that are considered the backbone of the American economy [2][3]. - The fund's top holdings include JPMorgan Chase, Berkshire Hathaway, ExxonMobil, Johnson & Johnson, and Walmart, with no single company dominating the portfolio, thus reducing risk [3]. Financial Metrics - The Vanguard Value ETF has a low expense ratio of 0.04% and a dividend yield of approximately 2.1%, providing a combination of low costs and healthy income [4]. - The fund's current price is $189.23, with a 52-week range of $150.43 to $189.97 [8]. Market Conditions - Value stocks, such as those in the Vanguard Value ETF, historically outperform growth stocks during periods of rising inflation and commodity prices, benefiting from direct exposure to energy companies [5][6]. - Financial stocks within the ETF are positioned to gain from a higher interest rate environment, which typically accompanies inflation concerns [8]. Valuation Insights - The Vanguard Value ETF trades at around 20 times earnings, compared to the Vanguard Growth ETF, which trades at approximately 40 times earnings, indicating a valuation advantage and a margin of safety [11]. - Established cash flows from value stocks provide stability during market volatility, as their prices are grounded in current earnings rather than speculative projections [10]. Portfolio Stability - The Vanguard Value ETF offers a diversified portfolio of 314 dividend-paying companies, providing a stable investment option amid ongoing market uncertainties related to trade tensions and inflation [13][14]. - The fund is recommended as a ballast for portfolios, allowing investors to collect dividends while waiting for clearer market direction [14].

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment presents opportunities for strategic adjustments in investment portfolios, particularly in response to volatility and the performance of large-cap technology stocks [2][4]. Group 1: Market Strategy - The company is advising clients to take advantage of market volatility by adding investments during downturns and reducing exposure during upswings [2]. - There is a shift from an overweight position in large-cap technology stocks to a more equal-weighted approach, driven by recent performance issues and the desire for diversification [4]. - The focus is on identifying opportunities among the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500 that have not performed as well as the top seven stocks [3][4]. Group 2: Investment in Private Markets - The trend of companies staying private longer has led the company to encourage clients to invest in private markets to capture growth before IPOs [8]. - Investment opportunities include private infrastructure, which has evolved to include data centers and cell towers, reflecting current market demands [10]. - The company is positioning clients to access these private market opportunities, which are seen as lucrative areas for investment [9][10]. Group 3: Portfolio Allocation - The traditional 60/40 equity to fixed income allocation is being adjusted, with a potential reduction in equity exposure to around 55% and an increase in alternative investments [12]. - The company maintains a positive outlook on municipal bonds, anticipating strong performance in the first quarter of the following year [12]. - There is an ongoing conversation about incorporating cryptocurrency into portfolios, primarily through ETFs, as clients seek to understand and engage with this asset class [13][14].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut its federal funds rate three times in 2024 and announced a second rate cut for 2025, indicating a potential decline in competitive CD rates in the near future [1] - The highest CD rate currently available is 4.1% APY from Marcus by Goldman Sachs for a 14-month CD as of November 22, 2025 [3] CD Rates Overview - Best CD rates are generally found in shorter terms of around one year or less, with online banks and credit unions leading in competitive rates [3] - The amount of interest earned from a CD is determined by the annual percentage rate (APY), which reflects total earnings after one year, factoring in the base interest rate and compounding frequency [3] Interest Earnings Examples - An investment of $1,000 in a one-year CD at 1.70% APY would yield a total of $1,017.13 after one year, while a 4% APY would result in a balance of $1,040.74 [4] - Increasing the deposit amount significantly boosts interest earnings; for instance, a $10,000 deposit at 4% APY would grow to $10,407.42, earning $407.42 in interest [5] Types of CDs - Various types of CDs offer different benefits, including: - **Bump-up CD**: Allows for a one-time request to increase the interest rate if the bank's rates rise during the term [5] - **No-penalty CD**: Provides the option to withdraw funds before maturity without incurring a penalty [5] - **Jumbo CD**: Requires a higher minimum deposit (typically $100,000 or more) and may offer higher interest rates, though the difference from traditional CDs may be minimal in the current environment [5] - **Brokered CD**: Purchased through a brokerage, potentially offering higher rates or flexible terms, but may carry more risk and lack FDIC insurance [5]

Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to grow less next year but is likely to avoid a recession, with tariffs not having their full impact yet, although fiscal expansion may provide some compensation [4] - Credit conditions are solid across various sectors, including credit cards and corporates, but a normalization of the credit cycle is anticipated as the economy slows down [1][2] Market Analysis - Current market pricing reflects a very benign scenario, with the S&P 500 at approximately 6700, indicating a healthy valuation at 23 times earnings [5] - There is a belief that the upside potential in the market is relatively limited, suggesting a possible correction in valuations [6][10] Technology and Productivity - Companies are increasingly deploying large language models to enhance productivity across operations, technology, fraud detection, credit decision-making, and client experience [7] - The impact of these technologies on the labor market is expected to be significant, with job creation and elimination occurring, but the overall capacity and revenue generation remain uncertain [9] Future Projections - A recovery in consumption is anticipated in the first quarter of next year, despite some current reductions [3] - The market may be overestimating the speed of productivity improvements necessary to justify current valuations [10]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market remains stable despite economic uncertainties, with expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2][3][6]. Economic Indicators - Current Treasury yields are at 4.1% for the 10-year and 3.6% for the 2-year, indicating a rangebound environment for yields [1][3]. - Corporate earnings are performing well, and the economy is progressing steadily, supported by gradual rate cuts from the Fed [2][3]. Federal Reserve Insights - There is a division within the Federal Reserve regarding the necessity of further rate cuts, but the forward guidance remains unchanged [5][6]. - Chair Powell's forecasts align with the median committee view, which anticipates three rate cuts this year, suggesting another cut in December [6][8]. Inflation and Employment - Inflation, excluding tariffs, appears close to the Fed's 2% target, but consumer sentiment remains low due to rising living costs and stagnant wage growth [11][12]. - The labor market data indicates a gradual cooling trend, with recent ADP reports showing negative job growth for September [8][10].

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The group's net operating income was ¥251.28 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.52%, with the decrease narrowed by 1.21 percentage points compared with the first half [3] - Net profit attributable to the bank's shareholders was ¥113.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.52%, up by 0.27 percentage points compared with the first half [3] - ROAA and ROAE were 1.22% and 13.96%, up by 0.01 and 0.11 percentage points compared with the first half [3] - The cost-to-income ratio was 29.86%, maintained at an appropriate level [4] - CET1 ratio was 13.93%, Tier 1 ratio 16.25%, total capital ratio 17.59%, down by 0.93, 1.23, and 1.46 percentage points compared with last year [4] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - Total assets were ¥12.64 trillion, up by 4.05% compared with last year's end [4] - Total loans were ¥7.14 trillion, up by 3.6% compared with last year's end [4] - Retail loans were ¥3.7 trillion, up by 1.43%, accounting for 51.8% of the total [4] - Corporate loans were ¥3.15 trillion, up by 10.01% compared with last year's end [4] - Financial investment balance totaled ¥4.03 trillion, up by 10.52% [5] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - Total customer deposits were ¥9.52 trillion, up by 4.64%, accounting for 83.73% of total liabilities [5] - The average daily balance of demand deposits accounted for 49.45%, maintained at a high level [5] - NII was ¥160.4 billion, up by 1.74% [6] - NIM was 1.87%, down by 12 bps year-on-year, but the decrease was narrowed [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to build a value creation bank and focuses on quality, profitability, and scale [3] - The wealth management business has shown good growth momentum, with net fee and commission income recording positive year-on-year growth for the first time in three years [6][7] - The company plans to continue promoting transformation into international, comprehensive, differentiated, and intelligent development [10] - The retail loan business remains a cornerstone, with efforts to maintain market share despite challenges [17][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is stable, but challenges remain, particularly in retail loan demand [12][13] - The company has maintained good momentum in performance despite external pressures [13] - Management emphasizes the importance of customer growth and maintaining a balanced approach to risk and pricing [14][45] - The company is optimistic about future growth opportunities arising from the 15th Five-Year Plan [19] Other Important Information - The NPL balance was ¥67.4 billion, with an NPL ratio of 0.94%, down by 0.01 percentage points [9] - The company maintains a prudent provision policy, with an allowance coverage ratio of 405.93%, down by 6.05 percentage points [9] - The total assets of subsidiary companies surpassed ¥900 billion, with a growth rate of 8% compared to the end of last year [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Short-term demand and long-term development strategy - Management acknowledged the challenges in retail loan demand but emphasized the importance of maintaining a balanced approach without compromising risk [12][13] Question: Impact of weak demand on asset structure and NIM - Management indicated that while NIM is under pressure, they expect to maintain a leading level and are focused on optimizing asset and liability management [22][23][24] Question: Sustainability of fee income growth - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of fee income growth, particularly from wealth management, despite potential pressures from fee cuts in the mutual fund industry [40][41][58] Question: Small and microfinance segment challenges - Management highlighted the importance of risk management and maintaining reasonable pricing in the small and microfinance segment, despite competitive pressures [44][45][48]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 9% growth in profit before tax, supported by a 5% increase in income [2][3] - Operating income reached $5.1 billion, up 5% year-on-year, while operating expenses increased by 4% [3][4] - Profit before tax was $2 billion, reflecting a 9% increase, and tangible net asset value per share rose by $0.175 year-on-year [4][5] - The return on tangible equity is now expected to be around 13% in 2025, upgraded from previous guidance [3][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) income was $3 billion, up 2% year-on-year, driven by a 23% increase in global banking income [8][10] - Wealth and Retail Banking (WRB) income increased by 7% to $2.3 billion, with wealth solutions income up 27% [10][11] - The affluent business onboarded 67,000 new clients in the quarter, contributing to a total net new money of $42 billion year-to-date [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Underlying loans and advances to customers increased by 1% or $2 billion quarter-on-quarter, with a 4% growth year-to-date [6][7] - Underlying customer deposits rose by 2% or $11 billion quarter-on-quarter, primarily from WRB [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on servicing clients' cross-border and affluent banking needs, with a strategic emphasis on wealth management [3][11] - The company plans to present updated 2026 return on tangible equity guidance at the full-year results in February [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, highlighting strong performance in wealth management and the potential for continued growth [11][25] - The company is preparing for significant trends such as the digitization of money and the incorporation of AI into business models [26][27] Other Important Information - The company achieved $566 million in run-rate savings from the Fit for Growth program, with total expense guidance for 2026 remaining below $12.3 billion [5][50] - Credit impairment for the quarter was $195 million, with an annualized loan loss rate of 24 basis points [5][6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on wealth business margin pickup - Management noted that net new money is migrating into wealth products, and the return on assets has improved due to a conversion from assets under custody to assets under management [15][20] Question: Long-term outlook for wealth management in China - Management discussed the importance of AI and digitization in future growth, emphasizing the bank's strong position in China [25][26] Question: Clarification on net interest income expectations - Management indicated optimism for Q4 net interest income, citing better-than-expected performance and effective management of pass-through rates [34][39] Question: Insights on credit impairment and high-risk assets - Management reassured that there are no significant signs of stress in sovereign credit, despite some fluctuations in high-risk assets [56][60] Question: Future profitability in ventures - Management expects digital banks to turn profitable by 2026, with ongoing improvements in operating performance [75][78]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered's share price experienced a significant increase, reflecting positive investor sentiment following strong quarterly results [1] Group 1: Share Price Movement - The share price of Standard Chartered rose to 1,520p, marking an increase of over 12% from its lowest level this month [1] - The current share price is 75% higher than its previous low, indicating a robust recovery [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record profitability in the first nine months of 2025, with revenues of EUR 24.4 billion, aligning with the full-year goal of around EUR 32 billion before FX effects [4][10] - Adjusted costs were EUR 15.2 billion, consistent with guidance, and the post-tax return on tangible equity was 10.9%, meeting the full-year target of above 10% [4][10] - The cost-to-income ratio stood at 63%, in line with the target of below 65%, and the CET1 ratio rose to 14.5% due to organic capital generation [4][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Corporate Bank achieved a post-tax return on tangible equity of 16.2% and a cost-to-income ratio of 63%, with revenues remaining flat year-on-year [19] - The Investment Bank saw revenues increase by 18% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in FIC and significant improvements in O&A [22] - The Private Bank's profits before tax doubled, with a 13% operating leverage and a return on tangible equity of 12.6% [24] - Asset Management reported a 42% increase in profit before tax, with revenues up 11% year-on-year, driven by higher management fees and performance fees [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that 74% of revenues came from more predictable streams, including the corporate bank, private bank, asset management, and financing business in FIC [7] - The asset quality remained solid, with provisions in line with expectations and no exposure to recent high-profile cases [5][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is on track to meet or exceed all 2025 strategic goals, with a compound annual revenue growth of 6% since 2021 [7][8] - The company launched a second share buyback program of EUR 250 million, bringing total buybacks in 2025 to EUR 1 billion, with cumulative distributions since 2022 reaching EUR 5.6 billion [8][10] - The company is optimistic about benefiting from German fiscal stimulus and structural reforms, expecting Germany to grow by 1.5% in 2026 [10][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving 2025 targets, citing strong performance in the first nine months and a robust start in October [33][34] - The company anticipates lower provisioning levels in the second half of the year compared to the first half, with a resilient credit portfolio [16][28] - Management highlighted the importance of operational efficiencies and the positive impact of technology investments on cost management [24][68] Other Important Information - The company completed its second buyback program, reiterating its commitment to exceeding EUR 8 billion in distributions between 2022 and 2026 [28] - The liquidity coverage ratio finished the quarter at 140%, and the net stable funding ratio was 119% [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on achieving 2025 targets and Q4 expectations - Management expressed high confidence in achieving 2025 targets, with a strong start in October and solid visibility for Q4 [33][34] Question: Benefits from German fiscal stimulus - Management reiterated optimism regarding the German fiscal stimulus and its potential impact on medium-term profitability [39] Question: Outlook on private credit and risks - Management discussed the disciplined approach to private credit, highlighting opportunities for innovation despite spread compression [47][48] Question: Confirmation on CET1 ratio and capital distribution - Management confirmed the intention to distribute capital sustainably down to the 14% threshold, indicating a strong position for future distributions [45][46] Question: Expectations for corporate bank revenues in Q4 - Management indicated a cautious optimism for a rebound in corporate bank revenues in Q4, expecting a slight increase in NII and continued growth in fee income [65][68]