Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the market with a base case index target for MXCN at 67 by the end of 2025, with a preference for sectors such as Energy, IT, and Utilities [36][38]. Core Insights - The report indicates a recovery in the MXCN index, driven by sectors like IT and Healthcare, with expectations of a market reversal by late January 2025 [9][11]. - The report highlights a cautious approach towards Consumer Discretionary and Staples, recommending a rotation into quality laggards and large caps over small and mid-caps [36][38]. - The anticipated GDP growth for China in 2025 is projected at 4.1%, slightly below the consensus of 4.2% [10]. Market & Sector Performance - MXCN sectors performance shows Consumer Discretionary up by 3.2% week-on-week, while Information Technology leads with an 8.3% increase [6]. - The MSCI China index has shown a year-to-date increase of 9.0%, with a notable recovery in sectors impacted by US tariffs [7][12]. Catalyst Calendar - The report outlines key upcoming macroeconomic indicators and sector-specific data releases, including PMIs and housing transactions, which could influence market movements [14]. Consensus Macro Forecasts - The consensus forecasts for China's GDP growth in 2025 are 5.1% for Q1, declining to 3.9% by Q4, indicating a gradual slowdown [16]. Index Targets - The MSCI-China index target for 2025 is set at 71, with a bull case of 80 and a bear case of 70, reflecting a potential upside of 13% from current levels [18]. - The CSI-300 index target for 2025 is projected at 3,787, with a bull case of 4,150, indicating a 10% upside potential [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends overweight positions in Energy, IT, and Utilities, while advising underweight positions in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Staples [39]. - A barbell strategy is suggested, focusing on high-yielders and selected thematic plays in Internet and AI sectors [36][38]. Trading Statistics - Recent trading statistics indicate a net outflow of US$796 million from China equities, primarily driven by passive fund outflows, although there has been a positive development with resumed offshore ETF inflows [79][80].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the performance of the **China/HK equity market** and various sectors within it, including **Consumer Discretionary**, **Communication Services**, **Financials**, **Information Technology**, **Industrials**, **Consumer Staples**, **Health Care**, **Real Estate**, **Materials**, **Utilities**, and **Energy** [5][6][10]. Market Performance - The **MXCN index** fell by **1.7%** week-over-week, with a defensive shift observed in the market [7]. - **Utilities** (+2.1%) and **Energy** (+0.9%) sectors outperformed, while **Real Estate** (-7.5%), **Consumer Staples** (-2.6%), and **Communication Services** (-2.3%) lagged [10]. - The **MSCI China** index has a year-to-date performance of **17.7%**, while the **HSI** has **18.0%** [6]. Sector Insights - **Consumer Discretionary** sector showed a year-to-date increase of **27.4%**, but experienced a weekly decline of **1.9%** [5]. - **Information Technology** sector has a year-to-date performance of **30.8%**, but also faced a weekly decline of **1.3%** [5]. - **Financials** sector saw a year-to-date increase of **7.5%**, with banks performing slightly better than insurance [5]. Earnings and Guidance - **Tencent** reported 4Q24 earnings that beat expectations, but its capital expenditure guidance was underwhelming [8]. - **CR Beer** and **Anta** indicated an uptick in sales momentum for the first two months of 2025 [8]. Economic Indicators - The **DXY** index rose by **0.4%** week-over-week to **104**, indicating a stronger dollar [9]. - The **China QMI** reading softened, indicating a borderline contraction in January and a return to borderline expansion in February, influenced by Lunar New Year seasonality and early impacts from higher US tariffs [7]. Investment Recommendations - The **2025 MXCN index target** is set at **67**, with a base case implying a **12% downside** from current levels [18]. - The **CSI-300 index target** for 2025 is set at **3,915**, with a potential upside of **7%** [19]. - Recommendations include rotating into quality laggards and focusing on large-cap stocks over small and mid-caps [36]. Flows and Positioning - Recent fund flows indicate a net outflow of **US$230 million** from active funds, while passive funds saw a net inflow of **US$853 million**, primarily into offshore listed China equities [76]. - The **87 US/HK listed China equity ETFs** tracked by JPM recorded a net outflow of **US$463 million** over a recent period, reversing previous inflows [81]. Macro Forecasts - Consensus macro forecasts for **China** predict GDP growth of **4.9%** in Q1 2025, slightly down from previous estimates [14]. - CPI forecasts for **China** indicate a modest inflation rate of **0.3%** in Q1 2025 [16]. Additional Insights - The call highlighted the importance of monitoring US trade policy, especially with upcoming reciprocal tariffs starting on April 2 [9]. - The **property cycle** in China is also a focus, with trends in residential property sales being monitored closely [39][40]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into market performance, sector dynamics, economic indicators, and investment recommendations.

Summary of Earnings Call for Asia EM Equity Strategy Industry Overview - The earnings results for Emerging Markets (EM) and Asia Pacific excluding Japan (APxJ) in 4Q CY24 were generally in line with expectations, with EM showing a slight increase of +0.8% and APxJ at +1.5% [2][10] - Japan reported a strong earnings season with a notable increase of +13.7%, driven by a high net beat ratio of +23 percentage points [2][6] - China also showed positive momentum with earnings growth of +7.7% [3][6] Sector Performance - The Communication Services sector led the earnings surprises with a +15.2% increase, particularly driven by Telecom Services which saw a remarkable +36.0% [4][31] - Real Estate also performed well with an earnings surprise of +11.9% [31] - Conversely, the Materials sector faced significant challenges, reporting a decline of -15.2%, with Paper & Forest Products showing a major miss at -68.4% [4][31] - Utilities also underperformed with a -6.9% surprise [31] Regional Insights - EEMEA (Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa) reported a solid aggregate beat of +6.8%, with notable contributions from the United Arab Emirates (+12.6%), Saudi Arabia (+9.1%), and South Africa (+8.6%) [3][6] - In contrast, Latin America faced major misses, with an overall decline of -16.8%, primarily due to Brazil (-20.7%), Chile (-20.3%), and Mexico (-10.8%) [3][6] Key Stock-Level Surprises - A list of companies expected to see upward revisions in their earnings estimates includes: - Sea Ltd (Communication Services) with a market cap of $76.85 billion and a price target upside of 31% [5] - XPeng Inc. (Consumer Discretionary) with a market cap of $19.21 billion and an expected upside of 18% [5] - Tenaga Nasional (Utilities) showing a significant upside potential of 53% [5] Earnings Surprise Ratios - Japan's earnings surprise ratio was the highest at 13.7%, with 54% of companies reporting above expectations [6][25] - In contrast, Brazil had the lowest surprise ratio at -20.7%, with 28% of companies missing consensus [6][25] Additional Insights - The breadth of earnings surprises was weaker across EM and APxJ, with EM showing a -7 percentage point breadth and APxJ at -4 percentage points [2][6] - The overall revenue performance across the region slightly beat expectations, with EM at +1.8%, APxJ at +1.4%, and Japan at +1.9% [2][6] This summary encapsulates the key findings from the earnings call, highlighting the performance of various sectors and regions, as well as specific stock-level surprises that may present investment opportunities.