Core Viewpoint - Digital banks SoFi Technologies and Robinhood Markets are leveraging innovative platforms to disrupt traditional financial services, with significant stock price increases over the past year [1][2] Group 1: SoFi Technologies - SoFi has evolved from a student and personal loans specialist to a comprehensive financial services platform, currently serving 10.9 million members, nearly double from two years ago [4] - In Q1 2025, SoFi's adjusted net revenue surged 33% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS increased 200% to $0.06, reflecting diversification into fee-based services [5] - Management projects full-year adjusted EPS of $0.27 to $0.28, nearly double the $0.15 result in 2024, indicating a strong growth outlook [6] - Investors confident in SoFi's growth strategy and market share capture from legacy banks have compelling reasons to buy and hold the stock [7] Group 2: Robinhood Markets - Robinhood's Q1 net revenue increased 50%, with EPS more than doubling to $0.37 from $0.17 in the prior year, driven by active trading in its 25.8 million funded accounts [9] - The cryptocurrency market boom significantly contributes to Robinhood's growth, with crypto representing 43% of total transaction volume and 27% of total revenue [10] - Robinhood is diversifying its offerings with professional trading tools, banking solutions, and wealth management options, increasing customer wallet share [10] - The company plans to expand globally, launching services in the Asia Pacific region and enhancing its digital asset presence through the acquisition of crypto exchange Bitstamp [11] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Both companies are trading at forward P/E ratios near 50, indicating equal market optimism about their potential [12] - Investors believing in Robinhood's potential for dominance in the online brokerage space should consider adding the stock to a diversified portfolio [13] - SoFi is viewed as a compelling buy-the-dip opportunity, with shares down about 27% from their 52-week high, benefiting from a resilient macroeconomic backdrop [16] - Robinhood faces challenges in meeting high market expectations following its recent stock price surge, which may lead to volatility [17]

Core Insights - SoFi and Nu Holdings are high-growth digital banking platforms disrupting traditional finance, focusing on underserved or digitally native consumers with app-based financial services [1] SoFi Overview - SoFi surpassed 10 million members in 2024, growing its user base by nearly 2.5 million that year [2] - In 2024, SoFi's revenues grew by 26% year over year, with a net income of $498.7 million compared to a loss of $300.7 million the previous year [2] - In Q1 2025, SoFi achieved a 20% year-over-year increase in net sales and a 217% surge in net income, highlighting strong operating leverage [6] - The company added 800,000 new members in Q1 2025, the highest absolute increase recorded, enhancing cross-selling potential [6] - Revenue growth in Q1 2025 was driven by all business segments, with lending and technology platform revenues growing by 25% and 10% respectively, while financial services surged by 101% [7] - SoFi's Galileo platform is a key growth driver, enabling seamless payment and lending integrations, and is projected to grow at a 16.8% CAGR through 2029 [5] Nu Holdings Overview - Nu Holdings reached 114.2 million customers by the end of 2024, marking a 22% year-over-year increase, and became Brazil's largest bank by primary account holders [3] - In Q1 2025, Nu added 4.3 million customers, reaching 118.6 million globally, with continued digitization expected to drive further growth [9] - NU reported 43.4% year-over-year growth in revenues and 2% growth in net income in 2024 [3] - NU's diversified revenue streams, including lending, interchange fees, and marketplace services, provide stability and reduce risk [10] Financial Projections - SoFi is expected to achieve 25% year-over-year sales growth and an 80% jump in EPS in 2025, reflecting improving profitability [11] - Nu Holdings is projected to post a stronger sales growth of about 29%, driven by rapid customer acquisition and geographic expansion [15] - SoFi's forward P/E is 36.07X, reflecting investor confidence in its rapid earnings growth potential, while NU's forward P/E is 19.08X [18] Comparative Analysis - SoFi demonstrates stronger near-term earnings acceleration, segment diversification, and expanding profitability, with projected EPS growth of 80% for 2025 [19] - NU focuses more on top-line expansion, while SoFi emphasizes bottom-line growth through product monetization and cost control [15][19]

Core Viewpoint - Financial stocks, particularly Robinhood, Nu Holdings, and Coinbase, are considered strong long-term investments despite recent volatility in the market due to rising interest rates and economic challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Robinhood - Robinhood has seen significant growth from 2021 to 2024, with year-end funded accounts increasing from 22.7 million to 25.2 million and assets under custody nearly doubling from $98 billion to $193 billion [4][5]. - The company's annual revenue rose from $1.82 billion to $2.95 billion during the same period, benefiting from a gamified approach to investing and commission-free trades [4]. - Analysts project a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% for revenue and 19% for adjusted EBITDA from 2024 to 2027, with an enterprise value of $57.3 billion [6][7]. Group 2: Nu Holdings - Nu Holdings, operating in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, has tripled its year-end customer base from 33.3 million to 114.2 million between 2021 and 2024, with an activity rate increasing from 76% to 83% [8][9]. - The company achieved a revenue CAGR of 89% during this period and turned profitable in 2023, with net income surging 91% in 2024 [8]. - Analysts expect Nu's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 32% and net income at a CAGR of 38% from 2024 to 2027, trading at 27 times this year's earnings [10]. Group 3: Coinbase - Coinbase, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, saw its year-end assets on the platform grow from $278 billion in 2021 to $404 billion in 2024, despite a revenue decline from $7.8 billion to $6.6 billion during the same period [11][12]. - Analysts forecast a revenue CAGR of 6.5% to $7.9 billion by 2027, indicating a gradual stabilization of its volatile business [12]. - The company's adjusted EBITDA is expected to decrease from $3.35 billion in 2024 to $3.26 billion in 2027, while it continues to expand its platform with new features [13][14].

Core Insights - Both Spotify Technology S.A. and Dave Inc. are app-based platform companies disrupting traditional industries, with Spotify focusing on music and audio streaming while Dave targets personal finance and banking [1][2] Company Analysis: Dave Inc. - Dave operates a subscription-based model charging $5 per month, providing services like ExtraCash and Financial Management Services [3] - Customers can access cash advances through three methods: a Dave card with a 3% fee, direct bank transfers via Visa Direct with a 5% fee, and a free Automated Clearing House transfer [4] - The company utilizes AI in its credit model to assess eligibility for cash advances, resolving 90% of inquiries without agents, thus offering lower-priced services compared to traditional banks [5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dave's 2025 sales is $421.9 million, indicating a 21.6% year-over-year growth, with earnings estimated at $6.53 per share, reflecting a 24.6% increase [10] Company Analysis: Spotify Technology S.A. - Spotify offers both freemium and subscription plans, with the basic subscription priced at $11.99 per month after a 3-month free trial [6] - The company reported a 12% year-over-year increase in subscribers and a 10% growth in monthly active users in Q1 2025, driven by high engagement and retention [7] - Spotify's ability to raise prices without affecting subscriber demand is notable, supported by features like AI DJ and Discover Weekly [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Spotify's 2025 sales is $19.7 billion, suggesting a 15.9% year-over-year growth, with earnings estimated at $10.61, indicating a 78.3% rise [9] Valuation Comparison - Dave is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 23.58X, lower than its 12-month median of 34.71X, while Spotify's forward earnings multiple is 49.42X, lower than its median of 52.06X [11] Investment Verdict - Both companies are strong players in their respective markets, but Dave is seen as a smarter buy due to its potential in an untapped market compared to the competitive audio streaming sector [13] - Dave is considered fundamentally strong and significantly cheaper than Spotify, making it a compelling opportunity for growth-focused investors [14]

Market Overview - Markets experienced significant fluctuations in April, primarily influenced by changing trade news, including new tariffs announced by President Trump, which led to a sharp stock reaction [1] - The S&P 500 has seen five consecutive days of gains but remains down over 1% for the month, with investors now focusing on a week filled with corporate earnings and key economic data such as GDP, inflation, and jobs reports [1] Value Investing - In volatile market conditions, value investing is particularly relevant as value stocks, often trading below their true worth, can provide stability [2] - Investing in solid, undervalued companies is suggested as a safer strategy, with specific stocks highlighted for their high earnings yield [3] Earnings Yield Metric - Earnings yield, calculated as annual earnings per share (EPS) divided by market price, is a useful metric for identifying attractively valued stocks [4] - A higher earnings yield indicates undervaluation compared to stocks with lower yields, which are seen as overpriced [4] Stock Screening Criteria - A primary screening criterion for stock selection is an earnings yield greater than 10%, supplemented by estimated EPS growth for the next 12 months being greater than or equal to the S&P 500 [7] - Additional criteria include an average daily volume of at least 100,000 and a current price of $5 or more [8][9] Stock Recommendations - **Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX)**: A Canadian mining company with a projected earnings growth of 355% and 30.4% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, and a Zacks Rank 1 [10][11] - **NCR Atleos Corp (NATL)**: Provides digital banking solutions with an estimated earnings growth of 24.5% and 22.4% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, also holding a Zacks Rank 1 [12][13] - **AerSale Corp (ASLE)**: Offers aviation products and services with projected earnings growth of 289% and 23% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, and a Zacks Rank 1 [14][15] - **Qifu Technology, Inc. (QFIN)**: An AI-driven Credit-Tech platform with expected earnings growth of 22.4% and 12.12% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, and a Zacks Rank 1 [16][17]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, Alkami reported a revenue growth of 26% and generated over $10 million in adjusted EBITDA [8][30] - For the full year 2024, total revenue reached $333.8 million, also reflecting a 26% year-over-year growth, with adjusted EBITDA improving to $26.9 million from a loss of $1.6 million in 2023 [30][44] - The adjusted EBITDA margin for Q4 was 11.3%, achieving the Rule of 37, and the company ended the quarter with a cash and marketable securities balance of just under $116 million [42][44] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Subscription revenue grew by 26.5% in 2024, accounting for nearly 96% of total revenue [31] - The annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased by 22%, reaching $356 million, with approximately $56.5 million of ARR in backlog for implementation [32] - The revenue per user (RPU) increased by 7% to $17.81, driven by successful add-on sales [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Alkami ended 2024 with 272 clients and 20 million registered users, marking a growth of approximately 2.5 million users or 14% compared to the previous year [33] - The company churned less than 1% of its digital banking ARR in 2024, with expectations to maintain a churn rate of 2% to 3% per year in the long term [34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Alkami's strategy includes a five-point plan focusing on success in the bank market, leveraging add-on sales, investing in platform efficiency, attracting talent, and pursuing acquisitions [10] - The acquisition of MANTL is expected to enhance Alkami's position as a premier digital banking platform, providing a comprehensive onboarding and account opening solution [22][45] - The company aims to generate half of its new logo wins from the bank market and half from the credit union market, with a focus on cross-selling opportunities post-acquisition [12][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's momentum heading into 2025, with guidance for Q1 2025 revenue between $93.5 million and $95 million, representing a growth of 23% to 25% [49] - For the full year 2025, revenue guidance is set between $440 million and $445 million, indicating a growth of 32% to 33% [50] - The management highlighted the importance of improving account opening experiences for financial institutions to remain competitive against larger banks and fintechs [19][20] Other Important Information - Alkami's gross margin for Q4 2024 was 63.1%, with expectations to reach 65% by 2026 [39][114] - The company has expanded its credit facility from $125 million to $225 million, extending the maturity date to February 2030 [45] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does MANTL compare with your existing account opening solutions? - The current offering is digital-only for limited deposit types, while MANTL provides a comprehensive solution across various channels and account types [56][58] Question: What is embedded in the 2025 outlook between user growth and ARPU expansion? - Organic user growth is expected in the 14% to 15% range, with ARPU expansion projected at 6% to 8% [60][61] Question: What is the competitive environment for MANTL? - MANTL faces competition from outdated core providers and smaller players, but its technology offers superior user experience and integration capabilities [70][72] Question: What are the prospects for MANTL's EBITDA to go from negative to positive? - The transition to positive EBITDA is primarily driven by revenue scale and leveraging Alkami's resources for growth [96][98] Question: How will cross-selling opportunities look post-acquisition? - Both companies have similar client bases, allowing for effective cross-selling of products and services [108][110] Question: What is the long-term margin trajectory for gross profit margin? - Alkami aims for a gross margin of 65% by 2026, with MANTL expected to contribute positively to this margin [114]