Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on global trade due to the impact of tariffs, suggesting potential challenges for investment in related sectors [1]. Core Insights - The momentum in global trade driven by US frontloading has diminished, with a significant decline in US imports observed since March, particularly in pharmaceutical imports from Europe [1] - Approximately 70% of major economies have PMIs for new export orders below 50, indicating contraction in new export orders since April [1] - The restraining effects of tariffs on trade are becoming increasingly evident, with further impacts likely to materialize in the future [1] Summary by Sections Global Trade Dynamics - US imports through May have sharply retreated from their March highs, with pharmaceutical imports from Europe showing a marked decline [1] - New export orders for countries outside the US have contracted since April, reflecting a broader slowdown in global trade activity [1] Economic Indicators - The PMI for new export orders in June was reported at 48.9 for the global economy excluding the US, indicating a contraction [5] - The US PMI for new export orders was slightly better at 51.0, suggesting a marginal expansion compared to the global average [9] Trade Order Trends - The divergence between exports and imports is highlighted, with global imports rising significantly due to increased precious metal imports to the US, which are not reflected in export figures [54][55]

Group 1 - The article discusses the contrasting responses of China and India to U.S. trade policies, highlighting China's successful negotiation for a 115% tariff reduction with the U.S. after a two-day meeting in Geneva [1][3] - India's recent actions, including a WTO complaint against U.S. tariffs and a proposal for zero tariffs on U.S. goods, reflect a shift in strategy influenced by China's perceived success [3][5] - The article critiques India's approach as reactive and lacking strategic depth, suggesting that India is imitating China's tactics without understanding the underlying strengths that enabled China's success [5][8] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that trade negotiations are not a zero-sum game, pointing out that China's strategy of expanding imports and upgrading industries has led to mutual benefits, while India's reliance on tariffs may harm its own economy [8] - It argues that geopolitical support cannot substitute for economic weaknesses, noting that U.S. investment in India is significantly lower than in China, indicating a need for India to strengthen its internal capabilities [8]